The Syrian truce and pressuring Turkey
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/March 31/16
The primary winner from the ceasefire in Syria in the current circumstances is the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. The US-led international alliance is taking back territories from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which mainly go back to regime control. Before the truce began, Russia attacked opposition-held areas in the north and cut supply routes from Turkey. Russian military activity harmonized with Western pressure on Ankara to curb the extremist opposition. Turkey should have thwarted the activities of rebel groups similar to ISIS, such as Jabhat al-Nusra, following the Paris attacks and the influx of millions of refugees to Europe. As the Russians and Europeans restrain Ankara, ISIS has carried out terrorist attacks against Turks. It is believed that they are acts of revenge after Ankara stepped up measures against the group. Meanwhile, Iran-linked militias such as Hezbollah have resumed military operations against the Syrian opposition. The truce is supposed to lead to a political solution that opposing parties are negotiating over in Geneva under UN auspices. There is no hint of any serious attempts to take decisive measures, nor a minimal commitment to a final formula. This implicitly means that Assad will stay in power within the context of a possible consensual solution.
Challenges
Can this bad situation, where he is being empowered and the Turks pressured, fulfil the Russian-Iranian project to rehabilitate the regime without making any fundamental changes to it? All indications are that we are heading in that direction, but the situation on the ground is challenging. The truce is not a peace project, but a project to slow the pace of the crisis. If it succeeds it will turn Syria into another Somalia. They cannot control 10 million Syrians who are either refugees or internally displaced, or put an end to the presence of militias at a time when the regime is so weak that it cannot impose its authority on its own. The truce is not a peace project, but a project to slow the pace of the crisis. If it succeeds it will turn Syria into another Somalia, where Assad stays in power in the capital and controls a small part of the state, while the rest of it remains in chaos. Some think the Somali model is the least bad scenario, as although violence in Somalia has been ongoing for years, it has not spilled over into neighbouring countries. However, this is a bad option for the Syrian people because it imposes the regime on them, and it is bad for the region because it will not stop violence from being exported.
Russian State-Owned Media Outlet Reveals Which Russian Military Hardware Will Remain In Syria After Withdrawal
MEMRI/March 31, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6368
On March 20, 2016, the Russian state-owned media outlet Sputnik published an article entitled “Not Coming Home: What Russian Hardware Stays in Syria After Pullout and Why.” The article lists the military hardware slated to remain in the Hmeymim Air Base in Syria, after the withdrawal started on March 15, 2016. In a MEMRI report published on March 15, additional hardware is mentioned. On March 14, the day of the announcement of the Russian withdrawal, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia’s naval base at Tartus and its strategic Hmeymim airbase will continue to operate as before. On March 17, while honoring Russian officers who participated in the Syrian campaign, Putin said that Russia can build up its military campaign in Syria in a “few hours.”[1] .
The following are excerpts from the English version of the Sputnik article:[2] published on the sputniknews.com website on March 20, 2016 (the text has been lightly edited for clarity):
Russian Su-30 jets landing at the Hmeymim Air Base.(Source: Sputniknews.com, March 20 2016)
Putin: Russia Can Build Up Its Military Presence In Syria In Just A Few Hours
“Nearly 20 Russian combat aircraft, an air defense system and some 2,000 personnel will stay at Hmeymim airbase in Syria. According to experts, the task force has several goals – fighting terrorism, supporting President Bashar Assad, and controlling the region… A squadron of Su-24 tactical bombers, including 9-12 aircraft, will be kept on duty in Syria. During the main stage of the campaign, these aircraft were responsible for the bulk of the airstrikes.
“The newest Su-30 and Su-35 jet fighters will also stay at the Hmeymim airbase for aerial protection, a Defense Ministry source told the Russian daily business newspaper Vedomosti. A source close to the military command confirmed to RBK that Su-35 4++ generation jets will stay at the base. Russia deployed four Su-35s to Syria on January 31, 2016. The Defense Ministry has not reported their withdrawal.
“Moscow will also keep its air defense system in Syria. ‘Russian air defenses will be on combat duty in Syria and will be used against all targets posing threats to the Russian forces,’ Putin said [at a March 17, 2016 ,ceremony honoring Russian military and defense personnel who participated in the Russian air campaign in Syria].[3] He added that, an S-400 medium- and long-range complex and a Pantsir-S1 air-defense system will stay on duty in Syria. In addition, Ka-52 and Mi-28N attack helicopters have been spotted at the airbase, but their exact number is unknown.
“According to military expert Viktor Litovkin, the rest of the Russian task force will accomplish its goals. He outlined several main objectives: conducting airstrikes on terrorist targets, supporting the Syrian Army and its allies, and controlling the airspace in the region. ‘All three aircraft [Su-24, Su-30 and Su-35] are capable of carrying out airstrikes against terrorists. But the Su-24 is not designed for aerial combat, and needs the support of jet fighters,’ he told RBK..
“In addition to the jets, Syrian airspace and Hmeymim air base will also be protected by an S-400 air defense system,’ Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Analytic Center for Strategies and Technologies, said. [.. ]He added that with an S-400 deployed to the base, the Russian Aerospace Forces could not only establish a no-fly zone over the Hmeymim airbase, but also over the entire province of Latakia where the bulk of the Syrian Army is concentrated. The system has a maximum acquisition range of 600 km and a maximum strike range of 400 km. ‘Within this radius, any aircraft can be tracked and then escorted by jets, ‘Pukhov explained.
Russian Su-24 tactical bombers at the Hmeymim airbase in the Latakia Governorate of Syria. (Sputniknews.com, March 20, 2016)
“According to Litovkin, attack helicopters may be used against small groups of enemies and armored targets which cannot be hit by bombers.’ The Ka-52 and the Mi-28N are armed with the Vikhr and Ataka anti-tank missiles as well as a 30-mm gun,’ the expert said…
“What is more, some 200-300 civil specialists will remain at Hmeymim base. Military personnel will not be able to maintain aircraft and helicopters on their own. ‘As many as 2,000 [Russian] personnel are required to operate the base. However, not all of them will be involved in combat missions,’ Pukhov concluded. Both experts agreed that the rest of the Russian forces in Syria will be sufficient for the current objectives. ‘Amid the peace talks the intensity of combat has decreased. This is why the current configuration of the Russian forces in Syria is rational,’ Litovkin said. At the same time, at his meeting with the troops [Russian military and defense personnel who had participated in the Russian air campaign in Syria], Putin stressed that Russian can build up its military presence in just a few hours…
“It is evident that this is not about a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. Russia will keep a small force at the Hmeymim base. It will also continue its technical and military assistance to Damascus…”
Endnotes:
[1] Sputniknews.com, March 17, 2016.
[2] Sputniknews.com, March 20, 2016.
[3] Sputniknews.com, March 17, 2016.