Brooklyn Middleton: Ceasefire falls apart as Assad holds latest sham election/Maria Dubovikova: How Russia is poisoning its ties with Egypt

Ceasefire falls apart as Assad holds latest sham election
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/April 21/16

Predictable issues have derailed ongoing negotiations over the Syrian conflict, with the opposition resuming fighting against the Syrian regime, which has repeatedly broken the cessation of hostilities agreement that was implemented in February. In addition to the continued Assad regime bombardment of forces ostensibly included in the ceasefire agreement, the primary issue that continues to sabotage the latest efforts to bring some semblance of calm to the war-torn country and resolution to the never-ending conflict, remains unchanged: fierce disagreement over the future of Bashar al-Assad’s criminal regime. Sincere efforts to bring the conflict to an end, or carve out a path that will lead to such a reality, will continue to fail so long as they involve negotiating with parties that demand Assad remain in power. Such a proposal dismisses the fact that the Assad regime’s failure to step down years ago remains the chief reason why Syria has spiralled into hell and allowed barbaric actors, including ISIS, to flourish.

Syrian talks doomed, Air strike kills dozens in market
Reuters reported that only three delegates from the opposition met UN special envoy Steffan de Mistura on 18 April, when typically 15 delegates do so. It is understandable that the opposition is considering completely pulling out of talks; the Syrian regime’s history of pretending to be interested in negotiations while stepping up their military campaign on the ground is well-documented. There is no reason to assess the regime has moved away from that strategy at this stage.

And with the Syrian military preparing a major offensive to attempt to seize all of Aleppo, a return to all out fighting appears inevitable in the near-term. Assad’s latest signal that he has no immediate interest in stepping down was sent to Syrians and the international community when he held parliamentary elections in government-controlled areas this week. Assad’s latest signal that he has no immediate interest in stepping down was sent to Syrians and the international community when he held parliamentary elections in government-controlled areas this week. The latest election – as was the presidential vote held in 2014 – was of course a total sham. As thousands of Palestinians face starvation in Yarmouk and the women of Daraya beg the government to lift the siege on their community, the AP reported that the government extended voting hours until midnight due to what Syrian state news indicated was “massive turnout.”

Advancing military
The Syrian regime has repeatedly vowed that it will not cede an inch of land to the opposition nor relinquish a bit of political power; it is critical that negotiators start listening and planning accordingly. While the West appears to operate under the assumption Assad will ultimately prove willing to depart, his regime continues signaling the precise opposite. Meanwhile, Russia’s public and sudden announcement that its forces would withdraw from Syria has yet to be illustrated on the ground. The notion that Russia made such an announcement – in an effort to pressure the Assad regime into negotiations with the West – is an assessment that appear weaker with the Syrian military’s every advance. The US should fully back the opposition’s decision to pull away from talks with the Syrian regime until their basic demands are seriously addressed. The basis for a longer term agreement will not be built on fresh ruin and bloodshed amid attempts by the regime to award itself political legitimacy with sham elections.

How Russia is poisoning its ties with Egypt
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/April 21/16
The Paris attacks claimed 130 lives and revealed a broad terrorist network operating in the heart of Europe, with Belgium appearing to be its stronghold. The death toll from the terrorist attacks in Brussels was 32. French and Belgian security services caught one suspect after another. However, given how long Europe did not react to growing challenges properly, such as the refugee influx that has been infiltrated by terrorists and extremists, the continent is doomed to face extremism and inevitable terrorist acts on its soil. Europe is unsafe, but Russia does not consider it unsafe for its citizens. The only country considered unsafe for Russians is Egypt, so much so that since Nov. 2015 there have been no direct flights between the two countries. This did not happen with Tunisia, where tourist resorts were attacked twice. With Turkey only chartered flights are banned, primarily due to the downing of the Russian jet over the Turkish border, not due to safety concerns. Explaining the stance on Egypt, Russian President Vladimir Putin has referred to the failure to resolve concerns over airport security, as well as radicals and hostilities in the Sinai Peninsula. He also mentioned unrest by supporters of the former government, “which was removed from power by the current president.” However, Sinai hostilities are only happening in a limited area and pose very little threat to tourists. ‘Criminal activity’ behind Russian plane’s crash in Sinai

Filling a vacuum
It is as if Russia is awaiting a new coup or revolution. Moscow follows developments in Egypt closely, and there are signs that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is losing popularity. The political system is shaken by scandals and insane declarations. Egyptians are frustrated and lost, their hopes and aspirations dashed. However, Russia would be making a huge strategic mistake by turning its back on Cairo. Egypt has lost over $1.3 billion since Moscow imposed its ban – a huge loss given the general state of the economy. The current crisis with Russia is making Egypt more open to its Western partners. On Tuesday, Egypt signed $2 billion deals with France that included military satellite communications and energy. Furthermore, mistrust in Egypt toward Russia allows other countries in the region and beyond to influence the political course in Egypt. Russia is losing its partner due to misperceptions and wrong expectations. Egyptian politics has been purged of any alternative to Sisi, and there is no impetus for another revolution. This is good for Egypt as a new uprising would be bloody. The country needs evolution, not revolution. It needs reliable friends and help. It expected support from Russia but in vain.

Tourism
Tourism provides major income for Egypt, and much of it was from Russians. The country has lost over $1.3 billion since Moscow imposed its ban – a huge loss given the general state of the economy. Apparently Russia does not care about this, continuously finding reasons to postpone lifting the ban. This is also happening because Russia wants to keep its citizens’ money inside the country, and is intensively promoting domestic tourism. Egypt – being cheaper, with a better tourist infrastructure, and ready to satisfy all tourist demands – poses a threat to this. Bilateral cooperation and communication continues, but the friendship has been poisoned and mistrust will continue to grow.