Assad’s defeat spells the end of Hezbollah
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/June 17/16
Since its foundation in the early 1980s, Hezbollah has not suffered as major losses as it is suffering in Syria. The party has lost more than it did in all the wars with Israel combined. It is estimated to have lost 1,000 – 3,000 fighters, including important military leaders. Among them, according to writers Matthew Levitt and Nadav Pollak, are Fawzi Ayoub, a Lebanese-Canadian who was killed in Daraa in southern Syria and was one of the figures most wanted by the FBI; Hassan Hussein al-Hajj, killed in battles around Idlib; Khalil Mohammed Hamid Khalil, killed in Homs; Ali Fayyad, killed in Aleppo; Khalil Ali Hassan, a veteran leader killed in Aleppo this month; and the party’s highest-ranked leader in Syria, Mustafa Badr al-Din, who was killed in May. All of them were killed in battles with Syrian rebels or other armed groups. Unlike Iran, Hezbollah cannot impose conscription on the young men in its community in Lebanon. It can only convince them to engage in its ranks through religious and political propaganda and financial temptations. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah vowed to eliminate “extremist groups” in just a few months. However, after five years of war in Syria and four years of the party’s involvement, can it keep on fighting no matter how long the war lasts? Even worse, Hezbollah’s involvement has increased and expanded beyond Syria, its men fighting on behalf of Iran in Iraq too. It lives in a continuous and exhausting state of alert inside Lebanon. Apart from the loss of blood and money, the party has almost completely lost the reputation and support it earned during its confrontations with Israel
Repercussions
Apart from the loss of blood and money, the party has almost completely lost the reputation and support it earned during its confrontations with Israel. Iranian failure in Syria, which is most probable, will have serious repercussions on Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon. The party used to justify its defeats against Israel, as in the 2006 war, by saying it won by not letting Israel achieve its goals. However, if it is defeated or continues to suffer losses in Syria, it will not be able to ensure the support of Lebanon’s Shiites. Hezbollah used to tell them that it was fighting in Syria for their safety and very existence, but now it is a war on behalf of Iran’s interests that has turned Hezbollah fighters into mercenaries. The party’s involvement in Syria has cost the Shiite community dearly, and has not given it promised security. Hezbollah’s raison d’être as an armed militia against Israel is no longer valid, especially after Iranian-Western rapprochement following the nuclear deal. Also, due to the party’s military losses, it will have difficulty persisting without challenges in Lebanon. Hezbollah and Iran reject any solution that does not maintain Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s full powers, because they know that his defeat will most likely end Hezbollah in Lebanon. The price of its involvement in the Syrian quagmire is too high, a price it tried to avoid in its confrontations with Israel by hiding among civilians or underground. Syria’s dirty war has tarnished Hezbollah’s reputation, history, popularity, legitimacy, youth and leaders. This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on Jun. 17, 2016.
Hizballah set to fight ISIS for Euphrates Valley
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 17, 2016
Hizballah this week ordered a general military call-up for their biggest combat mission in the Syrian war since their forces began fighting in support of the Assad regime in 2013, debkafile military forces report. Iran’s Lebanese proxy has been assigned the task of expelling the Islamic State from broad areas it occupied in the Deir ez-Zor region of eastern Syria and, in particular, the Euphrates River valley which connects eastern Syria and western Iraq. This Hizballah offensive is designed to open the way for the pro-Iranian Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces and the Badar Forces militias which entered the ISIS-held Iraqi town of Fallujah Friday June 17 to move west and up the Iraqi side of the valley. The two militias spearheaded the Fallujah operation under the command of Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani of the Revolutionary Guards and Ground Corps Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour. The plan is for Hizballah forces to meet these pro-Iranian militia forces on the Syria-Iraq border and so gain control over the most important strategic land pass between Iraq and Syria. Whereas the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq are fighting under US air cover, Hizballah is assured of Russian air support in Syria. And so, for the first time in the Syria conflict and its own history, Hizballah will receive air cover from both the US and Russia, the two superpowers now coordinating their military moves in Syria and Iraq. This strategy, which essentially connects the Syrian and Iraqi campaigns against ISIS, was charted on June 9, at a secret meeting in Tehran of the Russian, Iranian and Syrian defense chiefs. debkafile military sources in Washington say that the operation’s plan was put before President Barack Obama and he sanctioned it as part of the war on ISIS. In the run-up to the Syrian segment of the plan, Hizballah is transferring substantial combat strength from Lebanon into Syria, and emptying its other Syrian fronts, especially around Aleppo, for the large-scale concentration around Palmyra. The Hizballah force will start out by targeting the Syrian town of Al-Sukhna, 63km south of Palmyra and 136km north of Deir ez-Zor, thus gaining command of M20, the main highway link between northern to eastern Syria. debkafile military sources say that this military offensive by Hizballah against ISIS, with combined US-Russian support, threatens to transform a terrorist organization dedicated to fighting Israel in the service of Iran into one of the most powerful armies in the Middle East. Israel cannot stop this happening. The former Israel defense ministers who harangued this week against the Netanyahu government’s alleged “scaremongering” willfully ignored this dangerous development. They must also be held at least partly accountable for the failure of Israel’s air raids over Syria to diminish Hizballah’s military capabilities.