Arash Karami: Iranian officials justify soldier deaths in Syria/Bruce Riedel: How to end the war in Yemen

Iranian officials justify soldier deaths in Syria
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/October 28/15
When Russian airstrikes began Sept. 30 against Syrian armed opposition fighters, they were reportedly accompanied by Syrian troops and Iranian advisers on the ground. However, after more than a dozen Iranian soldiers died in less than a month, including the highest-ranking Iranian general to be killed in the 4½-year-old civil war, Iranian authorities and media have been put in the position of explaining the death toll. In an interview on Iranian television Oct. 26, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Hossein Salami, spoke about the latest developments in Syria. When asked about the number of recent IRGC deaths, Salami said that a few months ago the Syrian government requested advisers to help rebuild its army for “a large [military] operation.” To give effective advice, IRGC soldiers had to visit the front lines and become familiar with the reality of the battlefields, Salami said. It wasn’t possible “for them to sit in a room and help the Syrian army.” While some estimates have put the recent IRGC deaths as high as 20, Salami said, “The number of [deaths] is not high, but in comparison with the past it appears to be more.” Iranian officials rarely explain how IRGC soldiers are killed.
Hassan Shamshadi, a reporter for Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting who appears to have firsthand access to the battles in Syria and is often the first to report the deaths of Iranian soldiers, wrote on his Instagram page Oct. 25 in response to questions about the number of deaths.
Shamshadi first explained the importance of the latest developments in Syria for both the government and Shiites, writing that the current battle around Aleppo and Latakia took five months to plan. He said the operation resulted in the Syrian government taking back 62 square miles of land it had not held for years. The army plans to extend the operation to Al Fu’ah and Kefraya, two towns with a Shiite population of 30,000 surrounded by “terrorists who have promised to commit genocide when they enter the two towns,” Shamshadi said.
Iranians are playing “an important and determining role in this battle,” he said, adding that the larger presence of Iranians “will naturally result in an increase of the number” of dead and wounded.
Despite the number of deaths, Iranian officials do not seem deterred. In the television interview, Salami said Syria’s and Iran’s national security are tied together, and Iran’s presence in Syria, “in addition to [religious] aspects, has strategic aspects.” Iranian soldiers killed in Syria are described as “defenders of the Shrine” of Zeinab, which is just outside Damascus and important for Shiites. Salami, repeating a long-held Iranian position, said the plan to overthrow the Syrian government is part of a larger US plan that includes going after Lebanon next, presumably meaning Iran’s ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Rather than viewing Iran’s efforts as propping up President Bashar al-Assad’s government, Salami said Syria is “the front line against the American and Zionist regimes.”Salami also views political developments in Syria positively, saying the Syrian government is currently “restoring its political situation.” Assad visited Moscow on Oct. 20 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his first foreign trip since the civil war began. On Oct. 26, Omani Foreign Minister Yousef Bin Alawi met with Assad in Damascus.
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How to end the war in Yemen
Bruce Riedel/Al-Monitor/October 28/15
The tragic war in Yemen needs a political solution urgently. UN Security Council Resolution 2216 provides a one-sided path forward. A better solution would outline a path forward for all the parties. All parties involved need to back off their extreme positions. Some creative imagination needs to be given to this crisis sooner rather than later. The war expands and grinds on as the Saudi-led coalition brings in more troops from Sudan, Mauritania and elsewhere and prepares for an assault on Sanaa. Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are growing more potent. Aden, the southern port recovered by the Saudi coalition, is a chaotic, broken city — not a symbol of restored law and order. There is little sign a real cease-fire is in the works. Talks planned to take place in Oman failed. Appeals for $1.6 billion in international aid have gone unfulfilled. Millions of Yemenis are suffering. The current peace effort is based on a formula decided hastily by the Security Council to satisfy Riyadh. Only Russia demurred. A better approach would be to determine who needs to exit the Yemen equation, who needs to reconsider their posture, a new regional agreement for the Arabian Peninsula and a better role for Washington.
At the top of the list to go is the man who has done so much to ruin the Arab World’s poorest state. Former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh needs to retire permanently and thoroughly from Yemeni politics and take his sons with him into exile. More than any other figure, Saleh is responsible for the tragedy of today’s Yemen. After 33 years of misrule, he refused to accept the results of the Arab Spring and systematically undermined efforts to build an inclusive broad national government. Saleh needs to go. It can be a comfortable retirement, but his departure should be the commonly agreed upon basis of a deal.
Two other parties don’t need to lose but do need to be sobered by the events of the last year. The Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels have cost themselves and Yemen a humanitarian catastrophe by their arrogant pursuit of power. They need to be part of a national reconciliation process but not the sole or dominant power broker. The government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was elected in a legitimate process, even if he proved a very weak leader, as many expected. He can step down gracefully and let a government of national unity come forward that includes the Houthis. The UN should mediate its formation.
The Zaydis also need to recognize Iran is an unreliable and ineffective ally who did little or nothing to help Yemen or them. Iran meddled in Yemen solely to frustrate Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the other Gulf states. It has not been a responsible party in this crisis.
Saudi Arabia needs sobering, as well. Its hasty decision to begin airstrikes and a blockade (before even consulting some of its own allies such as Pakistan) plunged the region into war. The blockade has created a horrific humanitarian disaster for Yemenis. Both sides have caused terrible acts of violence, but the kingdom is a state that aspires to lead the Islamic world and must be held to a high standard.
Saudis in the border region have also paid a high price for the war, and all Saudis and their Gulf partners should have to foot the enormous bill for reconstruction in Yemen. The kingdom needs a more thoughtful and judicious foreign policy than the one that went to war this year.
Offering Yemen full membership in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would be an excellent start, and some prominent Saudis have already suggested the idea. A GCC with Yemen would contain 70 million people. It would unite the peninsula. Bringing Yemen into the rich Gulf club would emulate the European Union’s positive approach of bringing in poorer European states to help them transition to a stable and prosperous future. It will mean the Saudis, Emiratis, Qataris and others take on the task of rebuilding Yemen at their (considerable) expense. The alternative is to leave a festering open wound in the peninsula that will bleed them as Yemenis seek revenge for this war for a generation to come.
Of course bringing in Yemen means dealing with many complex issues involving currency, internal migration, internal security arrangements and many others. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should lead the way in developing urgent and equitable ways forward on these issues. Not all or even most need to be fully resolved before Yemen gains admission to the GCC’s summits and top decision-making. It is long past time to treat Yemenis as equal partners in the peninsula. In the long term, a bigger GCC, perhaps also including Jordan, could be a transformational mechanism for income redistribution and political reform.
Finally, Washington needs some second thoughts. It facilitated a war it has no vital interest in and let several allies operate callously. It has done far too little to secure a cease-fire and lift the blockade. It should be much more engaged at a much higher level in resolving this war than it has been to date.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/10/yemeni-endgame.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+[English]&utm_campaign=f9105abc92-October_28_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-f9105abc92-102494681