DEBKAfile: Did Hizballah dig a special tunnel to get bomb into Israel/Jerusalem Post: Hezbollah ‘revenge’ for Kuntar likely done; ISIS could be next northern threat

Did Hizballah dig a special tunnel to get bomb into Israel?
DEBKAfile Special Report January 6, 2016

The mystery of how Hizballah managed to plant the bomb, which blew up against an IDF patrol, without causing casualties, Tuesday, Jan. 5, in the Shebaa Farms district of Mt Hermon – on the Israeli side of the ceasefire line – is perplexing Israel’s military chiefs. It brought Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Golan (former OC Northern Command) and his successor Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi to the Golan the next day for a close inspection of the Syrian and Lebanese border defenses. They found no fault with the meticulous preparations and counter-measures the contingents on the spot had made for an attack, which Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah had said was “inevitable” after the assassination of Samir Quntar in Damascus on Dec. 20. But, in addition, to the lookout posts scattered along the border, was a countermeasure that had been rated impermeable: an “electronic sterile area” abutting the electronic border fence, which has been strewn with hi-tech sensors and other devices designed to act as tripwires for the smallest intrusion.

The fact that Hizballah was able to plant a bomb on the Israeli side of the border proved that this elaborate system did not work. The Shiite terrorist group, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, has long been known to maintain a commando unit known as the “Redwan Force,” especially trained for eventual incursions into Israel on missions of assault and the capture of Israeli locales with hostages. But its ability to outsmart an electronically sterile barrier was quite another matter. It is of the utmost urgency for IDF tacticians to seriously rethink the defensive measures in place on the northern borders with Syria and Lebanon, before Hizballah strikes again.  But first of all, they must find out how it happened.

Some Lebanese sources are throwing out hints of a secret tunnel dug by Hizballah, through which the “Quntar Brigade” was able to sneak the bomb onto the IDF patrol route, although it failed to cause casualties. No trace of a tunnel has so far been reported. At the time of the incident, Israeli public and media attention was wholly taken up with the Dizengoff gunman, who murdered three Israelis on Jan. 1 and is still at large six days later. Since Hizballah’s Shebaa Farms attack was swiftly countered by massive IDF artillery fire, it was soon over and the episode relegated to back pages. However, the defense minister and IDF chiefs cannot afford to treat it lightly.

They are convinced that Hizballah has not concluded its campaign of “revenge” and may reuse the same method for further attacks. No stone is therefore being left unturned to discover how Hizballah smuggled a bomb onto Israeli terrain – over or under the border – and the preparations for an attack remain high. At the end of his Golan inspection visit, the defense minister said: “The IDF is alert and fully prepared for every eventuality, just as it was for the Mt Dov (part of Mt. Hemon) attack. The forces are ready to respond whenever and however necessary and, if need be, their response will be powerful indeed.”

Analysis: Hezbollah ‘revenge’ for Kuntar likely done; ISIS could be next northern threat
Jerusalem Post/January 06/16

Chances are good that Hezbollah will walk away from its mini-escalation with Israel, following the alleged IAF strike on terrorist Samir Kuntar, satisfied that it made good on its threat to respond, while ensuring that its minor border attack did not open up a new front against it.

According to assessments within the Israeli defense establishment, it would make little sense for Hezbollah to strike again, and risk a major clash with Israel over Kuntar, a terrorist operative who was working for Iran, not Hezbollah, and who held no strategic value for the Lebanese Shi’ite terror organization.
Hezbollah remains heavily involved in the Syrian civil war, in which a third of its fighting forces have been injured or killed in action. Iran, which underwrites Hezbollah and nourishes it with weapons, expects it to focus on its current goals at this stage; To save the Assad regime, and protect its Lebanese home turf from Sunni jihadist organizations, rather than risk conflict with Israel that would expose it to massive Israeli firepower and shift the balance of power in Syria in favor of Sunni rebel organizations.

Hezbollah, which has more surface to surface rockets and missiles than most states in the world, remains Israel’s most formidable threat in the region. But weaker, radical Sunni organizations are more likely to try and attack from the north first. Emerging threats to watch are the heavily armed, Islamic State-affiliated Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade (Shuhada Al-Yarmouk), a group right on the border with the Golan Heights, which may choose to (unwisely) follow an Islamic State order to attack Israel in the future.

Al-Qaida’s Nusra Front, which is locked in an ongoing war with the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, is also not a particularly stable hostile entity, and could, for a variety of reasons, seek to turn its guns, bombs, and anti-tank missiles on Israeli targets on the Golan. Although these groups are fighting each other, as well as the Assad regime and Hezbollah, it is the radical Sunni actors, consolidating their presence on the border with Israel, who are more likely to strike first, and the IDF is deep in preparations for such a scenario