Russia, Iran, and American inaction in Syria
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/September 27/15
As time goes by, we realize that Russian intervention in Syria is raising more questions that – at least for the time being – have no answers. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mouallem recently hinted that President Bashar al-Assad may ask Moscow to send soldiers to Syria. Mouallem’s statements came at the same time as a Kremlin spokesperson confirmed there is a Russian desire to send forces to Syria. However, Russian troops are already present in Syria, particularly in the coastal area. They presently number about 2,000, and are working alongside pro-regime militias to prevent the collapse of the Alawite area, which Russia thinks it can put under its tutelage whether Assad stays or leaves. Moscow would not have increased the size of its intervention and insisted on publicizing it if it had not felt that Assad’s fate is under serious discussion. Therefore, Russia had to reassure him. This in addition to President Vladimir Putin’s desire to exploit Assad as much as possible.
Interests
Assad no longer controls anything in Syria, especially because the Iranians and their tool Hezbollah – which is nothing but a Lebanese sectarian militia linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – have their own interests. These interests are based on taking over land and real estate in Damascus and its surroundings, all the way to Zabadani and eastern and western Ghouta. They also want residents of Shiite towns close to Aleppo and Idlib to move to the capital and its surroundings. U.S. inaction has led to negative results that threaten regional stability. Amid the absence of the role that the only superpower is supposed to play
So far, there are no conflicting stances between Tehran and Moscow. On the contrary, it seems roles are distributed between them at a time when some Syrian territories, including Aleppo, have come under Turkish influence. It is no secret that Al-Nusra Front stopped expanding toward Alawite towns due to Turkish pressure on that front. These pressures are because Turkish priorities come within the context of complicated calculations that take into account future relations with Alawites in Syria, and the open confrontation between Ankara and the Kurds.
U.S. capitulation
It is also no secret that Washington is confused. The administration of President Barack Obama resembles that of Jimmy Carter. When the latter was tested by Iran at the end of the 1970s, Tehran realized that Carter did not intend any sort of confrontation against any party.Putin has tested Obama, and is now certain that he can go far in defying or containing him, whether in Ukraine or Syria. Meanwhile, Iran considers the nuclear agreement the Obama administration’s only achievement. It is in fact an Iranian accomplishment that has become the U.S. administration’s source of pride! Syrians are certain that Obama is unwilling to defy Iran in Syria or in Lebanon, due to his concern over the nuclear deal, over which he is very protective. There are strange givens here that the U.S. administration is adhering to. The first is its willingness to give way to Iran and Russia in Syria. There is an American admission that Syria is a zone of Iranian-Turkish-Russian influence. This explains why Washington retreated from reacting in Aug. 2013 when Assad used chemical weapons against the Syrian people. Putin, who at the time wrote an article in the New York Times urging Obama to be prudent and to focus on confronting terrorism, prevented a strike against the Assad regime – a strike that could have at least paralyzed airports. Obama, who used to consider the use of chemical weapons a “red line,” and who stressed the importance of Assad’s departure, accepted the use of barrel bombs to kill Syrians. Putin thus managed to have Obama do as he wanted. The same applies to Iran.
ISIS
Work is under way to figure out how to coordinate efforts against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in order to guarantee that Washington stays in the same boat as the Russians and Iranians. No one in Iran or Russia has taken Obama’s statements seriously since he backed down from attacking the Syrian regime. Assad will leave sooner or later, even if he thinks the Kermlin will never abandon him. Putin and Tehran will go far in their Syrian adventures, especially since no one in Washington wants to admit the role that the Assad regime played in the emergence and expansion of ISIS. No one in Washington wants to realize that Assad and ISIS are two sides of the same coin, and that eliminating the Syrian regime is an indispensible part of the war on terror. U.S. inaction has led to negative results that threaten regional stability. Amid the absence of the role that the only superpower is supposed to play, it is unsurprising that the process of dividing Syria continues. What Iran is doing in Lebanon is also unsurprising, as there is obstruction of the government’s work and popular activity that only Hezbollah benefits from. Amid this American inaction, it is also no surprise what Israel is doing in Jerusalem, as it is attempting to alter the status of Al-Aqsa Mosque and open it for Jewish extremists. Nothing has been a surprise in the Middle East since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, whose repercussions are still being felt.
This article was first published in Al-Arab newspaper on Sept. 21, 2015.
Khairallah Khairallah is an Arab columnist who was formerly Annahar’s foreign editor (1976-1988) and Al-Hayat’s managing editor (1988-1998).
The newest chapter in Syria’s war could be its bloodiest yet
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/September 27/15
In Syria’s five-year long conflict that has left 320,000 dead and triggered a stupefying refugee crisis, the worst for Syrians, cruelly, could be yet to come. Russia’s looming offensive against Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime, including the ISIS but likely not limited to, will prolong the conflict and further destabilize the region. And once again, Syrian citizens will bear the dire consequences of the newest chapter in the war that begins with President Vladmir Putin publicly confirming that he seeks to secure the future of Bashar al-Assad’s disgraced regime.In a particularly candid statement, Putin confirmed during an interview with 60 Minutes that the assertion he is “trying to save the Assad administration because they’ve been losing ground and the war has not been going well for them,” is in fact accurate. To this assertion posed by Charlie Rose, Putin responded, “Well, you’re right.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has fully embraced Russia’s increasing involvement in the war, with chief Hassan Nasrallah calling it a “great development.” It is worth noting that such inevitable support is what prompted a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Putin prior to Nasrallah’s speech. Reports indicated the leaders both agreed they would “coordinate military actions over Syria” with Netanyahu announcing they had “agreed on a mechanism to prevent…misunderstandings.” Despite this, it is likely Hezbollah will continue attempting to reap the benefits of its long-term involvement in Syria and equally as likely Israel will continue maintaining its policy of thwarting the militant group’s attempts at transferring strategic weaponry to Lebanon. Such a quagmire could impact Russia-Israel relations though it is likely in the immediate term Moscow would not intervene in any Israeli operation targeting Hezbollah in Syria. That said, how Moscow responds to any potential Israeli attack directly targeting Assad regime positions will depend on just how far Russia is willing to go in Syria.
Disastrous failures
As the Russian military continues escalating its involvement in the war-town country, each new week brings additional evidence that the official U.S. Syrian rebel training program has failed disastrously. These failures will fuel the Russian narrative that Moscow is heroically stepping in to complete what the United States has failed to accomplish. The worst development in the heavily pockmarked-with-failures U.S. policy on Syria would be seriously weighing cooperation with Russia
Meanwhile, with ISIS’s constant documentation of their own crimes and Assad’s constant burying of his, the barbarity of the Assad regime seems to have been forgotten by some. The utterly deluded notion, that Assad is any way less barbaric – or any less of a strategic threat – than ISIS, defies copious evidence of the contrary. President Putin was recently quoted stating that, “By the way, people are running away not from the regime of Bashar Assad, but from ISIS.” Such an illogical conclusion willfully ignores the reality that the Assad regime has killed far more Syrians than ISIS or any other nefarious actor operating in the country. When Russia begins executing airstrikes on behalf of the regime, the number of Syrian refugees fleeing will increase. The worst development in the heavily pockmarked-with-failures U.S. policy on Syria would be seriously weighing cooperation with Russia that ultimately aids in propping up the regime. The Syrian war has to come to an end and ISIS has to be defeated but Russian involvement that ensures Assad’s future rule also ensures a future of more war..