Assad meets Putin in ‘first foreign visit since 2011’
By Agencies/Wednesday, 21 October 2015/Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flew into Moscow on Tuesday for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin during which the two men discussed their joint military campaign against Islamist militants in Syria, a Kremlin spokesman said. Assad flew into Moscow on Tuesday for a meeting with Putin during which the two men discussed their joint military campaign against Islamist militants in Syria, a Kremlin spokesman said. Also read: Putin talks with King Salman after Assad meeting. “The president of the Syrian Arab Republic Bashar Assad came on a working visit to Moscow yesterday evening and held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin,” the spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters. According to Agence France-Presse, this is Assad’s “first foreign visit since Syria’s war broke out in 2011.” (Photo: RIA Novosti) Putin last month received parliamentary approval to launch an air campaign in the war-torn country. News of the meeting between Putin and Assad comes after U.S. and Russian military officials signed a memorandum of understanding on Tuesday that includes steps their pilots should take to avoid an inadvertent clash over Syria as they carry out separate air strikes against militant groups, the Pentagon said. The issue of aircraft safety started after Russia began bombing targets in Syria last month. Moscow says it is attacking Islamic State, but many of its air strikes have hit territory held by other rebel groups fighting against Russia’s Syrian ally, President Bashar al-Assad. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said the full text of the memo would not be released at Russia’s request, but it included specific protocols for air crews to follow, plus the creation of a ground communications link between the two sides in the event air communications fail. Last week, Putin said Russia would not deploy ground troops to Syria, where it has been conducting air strikes against what it says are ISIS targets. “We are not planning on doing this (conducting a ground operation), and our Syrian friends know about this,” Putin said in an interview broadcast on state-run Rossiya-1 television channel. He also said Russia does not want to get involved in an inter-religious war in Syria. He also explained that Russia does not see a difference between Sunni and Shiite groups. Using modern jets and older Soviet aircraft, Russia has bombed command posts and training camps of what it says are radical “terrorists,” backing a ground offensive by Assad’s forces. Putin had also said that Russian operation’s objective was to “stabilize the legitimate authorities and create conditions for finding a political compromise.”Speaking of the weaponry used in the strikes — including cruise missiles Russia fired from the Caspian Sea at targets more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) away — Putin dismissed the idea that Russia was in an “arms race” with the West. “This is not about an arms race,” he said. “This is about the fact that modern weapons are improving, changing. In other countries, this is happening even faster than here. This is why we have to keep up.”(With Reuters and AFP)
Has the Syrian cause been sold?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/October 21/15
The idea that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will remain in power has worried many. It has been commented on recently by the Saudi, Turkish, French and Russian foreign ministers. The Assad regime and its allies are repeating it in the context of suggesting that their rivals have submitted, and that Russian intervention has changed the course of the war. So is Assad really staying? He governs less than a third of the country, and has a small army and security apparatus. More than 12 million Syrians have been displaced, while 5 million have fled the country. There is nothing left of the elements of a state. Assad stays among tombs as he confronts thousands of rebels. On the practical level, as a ruler he exists only in the statements of his allies Russia and Iran. Assad is not worth the price being paid by his allies and the Syrian people, and contrary to what he and his supporters think, there is no hope of him staying. In addition, it is untrue that Russian intervention in Syria has granted Assad a chance to stay. The Russians are all he has left. He has unsuccessfully used his security forces and thugs. He then resorted to the Lebanese party Hezbollah, which has extensive experience in militia warfare. That also failed. Then the Iranians came to his aid but failed. Assad also resorted to Iraqi and Afghani militias, without achieving progress on the ground.
Assad’s departure
Russia then got involved with its air force and missiles, but the result has been no better. This week, Russian operations focused on Latakia, which until recently was a safe zone for Assad. He is not worth the price being paid by his allies and the Syrian people, and contrary to what he and his supporters think, there is no hope of him staying. Even the Iranians, who are the most keen to keep Assad in power, are aware of the impossibility of him staying. However, they want to control the course of negotiations and decide the fate of future governance in Syria. They want to assign another Assad, a leader who will follow their orders so they can dominate a strategic geographic area from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, and besiege the Gulf. The Russian stance developed following the visit of Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as Moscow began to talk about negotiating to establish a transitional phase. It is expected that there will be disputes over many details, such as the composition of the transitional government, the roles of the military and security institutions, and when Assad will depart. It is impossible for him to resume as a legitimate president. The Syrian cause has not been sold, and it is not fit to be sold.
Assad summoned to Moscow
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/October 21/15
On Tuesday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad travelled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. The visit, anticipated for months, occurred three weeks into the Kremlin’s aerial and sea campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and other extremist groups. It marks Assad’s first foreign visit since the 2011 uprising in Syria began. His last visit to Moscow was that same year. That Assad felt comfortable enough to travel outside Syria direct to Russia is notable. With Russian and Iranian support, Assad felt that his core allies in Damascus – his immediate family and the intelligence services – are in control. However, Assad literally snuck out of Syria with no reports of his trip, and took a Russian jet. Also, it should be noted that his wife Asma was not in Damascus at the time. She was in Jableh, a few miles away from the Russian air base in Latakia. Perhaps the ruling couple fear they may not be allowed to return. Assad’s visit is an important marker that Moscow’s intervention in Syria is about to enter a new stage. Russia’s position regarding Assad and Syria’s future was evident at the meeting. Putin repeated what he has said all along, that there would be an eventual need for a political settlement to the conflict. That Russia has come to save Syria from itself is salient: Putin has said when “healthy forces” are ready to negotiate, there will be an election with a transition away from Assad to another leader.
War on terror
“The attempts by international terrorists to bring whole swathes of territory in the Middle East under their control and destabilize the situation in the region raise legitimate concerns in many countries around the world,” said Putin. “This is a matter of concern for Russia too, given that sadly, people from the former Soviet Union, around 4,000 people at least, have taken up arms and are fighting on Syrian territory against the government forces. Of course, we cannot let these people gain combat experience and go through ideological indoctrination and then return to Russia.”In other words, Russia will stay in Syria until the latter stops being an incubator or launch pad for global extremism. Western estimates on the fight against ISIS and other extremists are in the two-decade range. Moscow has not released a timetable yet. Perhaps that is a smart move. t their meeting, Assad expressed appreciation for Putin’s support, and affirmed the desire for an eventual political settlement: “The whole people wants to take part in deciding the fate of the state, not just the ruling group.” Mention of the ruling group is an important indicator that Assad is kissing the ring on Putin’s finger for saving his family and close colleagues.
Converging plans
Assad’s surprise visit is all about timing. In the past few days, Turkey said Assad could keep “the powers of the presidency for six months before retirement.” Such talk plays into Russia’s role as negotiator for Syria’s political future, and fits perfectly with the Kremlin’s plans. Moreover, Assad’s visit fits into U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s plans for talks on Syria that must involve a transition plan. It is important to remember that Kerry stands outside conventional wisdom in Washington. After Assad’s visit, Moscow moved quickly to announce its next steps. The defense minister announced more measures for the Russian presence in Syria, including “to create conditions for the settlement of the conflict.”With the establishment of a base in Latakia, there may be further on-the-ground requirements that Russia will direct the Syrian army and its allies to fight. Significantly, Assad is said to have requested more military involvement from Moscow. Whether that request involves special forces, possibly from Chechnya, remains to be seen. On Thursday, a Russian parliamentary delegation headed by Dimitrii Sablin will meet with Assad to assess the situation in Damascus, and how to launch a transition process. In May, Sablin headed a delegation to Syria that met officials and representatives of religious communities. Assad’s visit is an important marker that Moscow’s intervention in Syria is about to enter a new stage. The Russian general staff have said sorties will increase dramatically. There are also indicators that the battle for Aleppo will commence soon, with the build-up of thousands of Iranian-linked forces with the Syrian military. The pieces for the transition are coming together on the Kremlin’s orders.
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