Hezbollah seeks to boost allies in next Lebanese government
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/October 25/16
Party hints at intention to control Hariri cabinet after Aoun is elected president
Washington, DC: Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun met with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah a few days ago not only to thank him for the latter’s backing but also to ease Speaker Nabih Berri out of his doldrums.
According to Al Nahar daily, ongoing dialogue channels between Hezbollah and the Speaker focused on the formation of the next government under the presumed command of Sa’ad Hariri. It was unclear whether a Berri “blank vote” would guarantee any role for the Amal Party in a putative Hariri cabinet, though Nasrallah is apparently anxious to have considerable participation for both Shiite parties.
Parliament is set to convene on October 31 to select Aoun as the next head-of-state and, with his election nearly ensured, the new president is expected to choose Hariri as the next premier.
Because Berri announced that he would join the ranks of the opposition should Aoun be elected, observers concluded that it might be difficult for the Amal Party to play a role in a future government, although this is what Nasrallah is apparently working to resolve. Moreover, while it was difficult to see how the Speaker could distance himself from the Marada Movement leader Sulaiman Franjieh, who maintains his candidacy even if he recognises that an election would be difficult especially since key swing voters — the Progressive Socialist Party led by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt — have yet to openly declare their choice, Berri is the ultimate pragmatist who has never turned down a deal. Both he and Jumblatt remained open to offers they could not possibly turn down.
After two-and-a-half long years during which Lebanese elite manoeuvred against each other, neglecting their minimum responsibilities ranging the gamut from collecting garbage and providing electricity, wily politicians empowered themselves in deals to secure various shares of the goodies that went along their political pledges.
On October 31, the March 8 bloc, which is dominated by Hezbollah and is aligned with Iran and Syria’s Al Assad regime, is likely to post a major victory, even if a triumphant Aoun return to Baabda Palace — from where the Syrians expelled him three decades ago — will appear to be an affront to Damascus. For now, the Aoun-Hariri accord will mean that the March 14 coalition is nearly exhausted, with a potential hit against Saudi interests in the Levant.
Notwithstanding their selection, however, Hezbollah and its March 8 allies remain wary because the election of the 13th President of Lebanon, Aoun, will rekindle past concerns. Aoun has a mixed track record and, even if his age (82) somewhat tamed him, he is a mercurial and divisive figure and was a Hezbollah foe in the past. Likewise, his opposition to the Syrian regime in the 1980s and 1990s, which he reluctantly chose to overlook after his 2005 return from exile, stood as concrete examples of his true identity. The coming weeks will illustrate whether past events can be safely forgotten or whether Lebanon will embark on yet another period of instability.