Christian heavyweights seek to scupper Franjieh presidency
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/December 07/15
Both of Lebanon’s two most powerful Christian leaders – Michel Aoun and Samir Geagea – are determined to bury plans to elect rival
On the face of it, 50-year-old Marada Movement MP Sleiman Franjieh’s chances of becoming the next president of Lebanon look highly promising. The staunch ally of Hezbollah and Damascus has won the surprise endorsement of the Saudi-supported Future Movement; the ‘kingmaking’ Progressive Socialist Party; and the Maronite Patriarchate, the chief religious authority of the Christian community from which, by longstanding custom, the president is selected. On the international stage, beyond Saudi Arabia and Syria, Franjieh is reported to be seen favorably by France, Iran, and the United States, inter alia. Even some domestic Christian rivals profoundly opposed to Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, such as the Kataeb Party, have ostensibly offered olive branches, stating conditions under which they would assent to his candidacy. Behind the scenes, however, the two largest Christian parties – Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces (LF) – are livid at the prospect of Franjieh’s election, and are working to derail any and all dealmaking to that end as a matter of first priority, according to knowledgeable observers with whom NOW spoke.
“The major Christian parties are not just reluctant – there’s no way [they’ll accept Franjieh],” said Kamal Yazigi, political science professor at the American University of Beirut and a founding member of the FPM. “Aoun is not thinking at all of withdrawing from the race.”
The same holds for Geagea, according to an advisor to the leader of a Christian party, who spoke to NOW on condition of anonymity. The LF leader has “snubbed all visits from the Saudi ambassador” and “refused calls from Saad al-Hariri,” the Future Movement leader nominally allied to Geagea who initiated the Franjieh proposal when he invited the MP to meet him in Paris in November.
“This is information, not analysis: Geagea’s not going to cave in,” said the advisor.
Both leaders have distinct, if somewhat overlapping reasons for opposing Franjieh so vehemently. While Aoun is also an ally of Hezbollah and Assad, his FPM holds more seats in parliament than any other Christian-majority party, and thus he believes he is “entitled” to the presidency as the most “representative” Maronite politician, Yazigi told NOW. Other analysts phrased it more bluntly. “It’s a matter of personal ego,” said Michel Hajji Georgiou, commentator at L’Orient-Le Jour newspaper. “In his old age, he sees the presidency as a couronnement of all his political past; he sees it as the ultimate accomplishment that he must tend to. He won’t withdraw from the race, because he’s like Noah, he thinks it’s après moi le déluge.”As for the hawkishly anti-Hezbollah Geagea, his hostility to Franjieh doesn’t merely stem from their being diametrically opposed on almost all significant political questions. He and Franjieh also happen to be provincial rivals, both hailing from nearby rural mountain towns in north Lebanon, noted the political party advisor. Moreover, the pair have deeply personal differences dating to the civil war era, with Franjieh blaming Geagea for the murder of his parents and sister in a 1978 raid on the family residence in the northern town of Ehden (a crime for which Geagea apologized in 2008, though he denied being personally present at the time). When parliament met in a failed attempt to vote for a president in April 2014, with Geagea a declared candidate, unknown MPs left protest votes bearing names of people allegedly killed by the LF leader, including Franjieh’s sister Jihan.
Indeed, so opposed is Geagea to Franjieh’s candidacy that LF MP Antoine Zahra remarked Sunday that Geagea would sooner swallow his pride and vote for his other adversary, Aoun, than lend his parliamentary bloc’s votes to Franjieh. Geagea’s and Aoun’s weight combined would form “a Christian consensus that could block Franjieh,” said Hajji Georgiou, albeit at significant cost to Geagea in terms of his relations with the Future Movement, Saudi Arabia, and the Lebanese Sunni community in general. “I don’t think it’s his first choice, but […] he might be forced to do it. If it’s between Aoun and Franjieh, I guess he would choose Aoun,” said Hajji-Georgiou. If, however, the LF’s and FPM’s non-Christian allies were hypothetically to try and persuade them to agree to Franjieh’s election, the concessions that would have to be offered would be considerable, NOW was told. “The price to pay would be huge,” said Hajji Georgiou, and could include nominating Aoun’s son-in-law, former head of the army’s commando unit Gen. Shamel Roukoz, as defense minister, as well as ensuring a prominent cabinet position for another Aoun son-in-law, current Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. Alternatively, the political party advisor told NOW, “We’ve heard Aoun was promised six ministerial portfolios, including interior, defense, and telecoms, along with nominating the army head.” Media reports have also suggested the possibility of a new electoral law, long demanded by Christian parties who complain the current law effectively under-enfranchises them. Still, no source NOW spoke to was convinced any concessions were likely to bring the pair to relent. “Electoral law – that’s secondary,” said Yazigi. “Aoun wants to be president […] I don’t think you can bargain with him and bribe him with things like that.”
Alex Rowell tweets @disgraceofgod