Why Soleimani Misreads Lebanon Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 25/2019
The way the state-controlled media in Tehran put it the wave of protests in Lebanon is about โshowing solidarity with Palestine.โ Photos of a dozen people burning Israeli and American flags in Beirut come with surrealistic captions about โLebanese resistance fightersโ calling for Jihad against โbaby-killing Zionistsโ and the American โGreat Satan.โ
What is certain is that the uprising has shaken the parallel universe created by Major-General Qassem Soleimaniโs Madison Avenue depiction of Lebanon as the bridgehead for the conquest of the Middle East by Khomeinist ideology. Those familiar with Tehran propaganda know that the mullahs regard Lebanon as their most successful attempt at empire building, worth every cent of the billions of dollars invested there.
Tehran media often boast that Lebanon is the only country where the Islamic Republic controls all levers of power, from the presidency to security services, passing by the Council of Ministers and parliament. More importantly, perhaps, Tehran has forged alliances with powerful figures and groups within every one of the ethnic and sectarian โfamiliesโ that constitute Lebanon.
In Iraq, Iran has to contend with the presence of powerful Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties and personalities that, while prepared to accommodate Tehran, refuse to act as puppets.
In Yemen, though dependent on Tehranโs money any arms for survival, the Houthis try not to be dragged into the Khomeinist strategy of regional hegemony.
In Syria, Tehran has to contend with Bashar al-Assad and remnants of his constituency who regard the Iranian presence as no more than an evil necessity for survival.
In Gaza, Tehran owes its sporadic influence to fat checks signed for Hamas, the Palestinian branch of Muslim Brotherhood. However, ideological rivalry between Khomeinism and Ikhwanism, casts a permanent shadow on relations between the two outfits. Moreover, Tehran is forced to contend with the presence of powerful rivals in Iraq, in the shape of the United States, and in Syria in the shape of Russia, and now also Turkey.
In his first press interview, headlined by the Tehran media last month, Gen. Soleimani held up Lebanon as the shining example of his success in empire building, vocalizing the parallel universe narrative that has driven the mullahs away from reality.
The 6,000-word interview, slated as an account of the 33-day war between Israel and the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, pursues three objectives. The first is to establish Soleimaniโs image as a master strategist who could take on the powerful Israeli army and push it to the edge of destruction.
โIf the 33-day war had not been stopped, the Zionist regimeโs army would have disintegrated,โ he asserts without pushing his tongue into his cheek.
However, why did the general decide to stop the war and thus save the Israeli army?
Soleimani claims that the architect of the ceasefire that saved the Israelis was the then Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Hamad, aided by ex-US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton. Soleimani does not explain why he and his boss in Tehran, โSupreme Guideโ Ali Khamenei, agreed to a plan concocted by the Qatari sheikh and the American diplomat to save the Israeli army on the brink of disintegration.
Soleimaniโs second aim is to hammer in the claim that the war forced Israel to abandon what he calls โthe Ben Gurion strategy of pre-emptive warโ that meant taking the Arab states to the dentist every 10 years and destroy their armies before they could attempt biting the Jewish state.
In other word, if Soleimani is to be believed, Arabs could now sleep in peace, sure that Israel will never launch pre-emptive war against them.
The irony is that in the past 18 months Israel has carried out more than 300 attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq causing hundreds of deaths while Soleimani and his mercenaries maintained as low a profile as they could get away with.
Of Soleimaniโs three possible aims the most important, perhaps, is the third one.
In nonchalant manner, he depicts Lebanon as just a piece of territory without a government of its own, its only justification being a glacis for the Islamic Republic. He speaks of his frequent comings and goings to Lebanon without ever mentioning being invited, let alone given a visa, by any Lebanese authority. Nor does he bother to say who authorized the stream of arms, including thousands of missiles, brought to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria. There is no reference to any agreement by any authority to let a foreign military unit conduct a war against a neighboring country from Lebanese territory.
As far as the running of the war is concerned, Soleimani claims that a three-man committee, consisting of himself, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and the late Imad Mughniyah. When the three-man committee could not decide a major issue Soleimani would rush to Tehran, and on one occasion, all the way to Mashโhad, to obtain instructions from Khamenei. No one talked to the Lebanese president, prime minister, defense minister, or army chief, not to mention the Lebanese man-in-the-street who was never told who started the war and why.
Unwittingly, Soleimani shows that, though it risked the lives of all Lebanese citizens regardless of sectarian differences, the war that Hezbollah triggered was designed to defeat โa sinister anti-Shiite plotโ by the Israelis to capture 30,000 Lebanese Shiites, keep them in a camp and giving their villages to non-Shiites to change the demographic balance along the ceasefire line.
To show the alleged cowardice of non-Shiite Lebanese, Soleimani speaks of โSunni and Christian brothers sitting in their villages, smoking hookah and drinking teaโ while Hezbollah Shiites fought to destroy the โZionist enemyโ. However, lest people see that as a sectarian war, Soleimani states โunder all circumstances the main protector of the Lebanese nation is Hezbollah.โ
I think Soleimani is wrong to write-off Lebanon as a nation-state and reinvent it as an Iranian bridgehead. Having known Lebanon for more than half a century, I can tell him that there is such a thing as โLebanese-nessโ that transcends sectarian and political divides. The Lebanese look to the Mediterranean and the exciting possibilities of the modern world rather than the recesses of the Iranian Plateau under the mullahs with their antediluvian ideology. As a matter of taste, Lebanese-ness is closer to the beach than to the bunker.
Hezbollah threatens the peaceful and non-sectarian protests in Lebanon ย ุฑูุจุฑุช ููุณู/ุงูุฏูุจูุฏูุช: ุญุฒุจ ุงููู ููุฏุฏ ุงูุฅุญุชุฌุงุฌุงุช ุงูุณูู ูุฉ ูู ูุจูุงู ุงูุนุงุจุฑุฉ ููุทูุฆู ูุงูุทุงุฆููุฉ Robert Fisk/Independent/October 25/2019
It was perfectly clear to all of us that the Hezbollah, heroes of the Lebanese resistance until they began sacrificing themselves on the battlefields of Syria, were attempting to sabotage the entire protest movement
Those tens of thousands of largely young protesters demanding a non-sectarian Lebanon were joyful, filled with happiness, determined that this time they would change the wretched confessional nature of their state forever. Then the Hezbollah turned up, a truckload of them, dressed in black and shouting through loudspeakers and holding up posters of their all-Shia militia heroes. Squads of Lebanese interior ministry police appeared in the side streets.
It was perfectly clear to all of us that the Hezbollah, heroes of the Lebanese resistance until they began sacrificing themselves on the battlefields of Syria, were attempting to sabotage the entire protest movement. The young men and women in the street shouted as one: โThe government is corrupt, the sectarian leaders are corrupt, all members of parliament are thieves โ thieves, thieves, thieves.โ But they never โ deliberately โ mentioned the name of the Hezbollah chairman Sayed Hassan Nasrallah.
Hezbollah serves in the Lebanese government.
And two of the men jumped down from the truck โ big, tough figures towering over the younger protesters โ dodging the police line and moved into the demonstrators, shouting and demanding they end their curses about sectarianism. โThe Sayed [Nasrallah] is the only one who is not corrupt!โ one of them screamed.
These men did not come to talk to the protesters or discuss their objections or even argue. They preached at them, raising their voices and bellowing their words. For a moment I wondered if I was perhaps in the holy city of Kerbala or Najaf. There is in fact no evidence that Nasrallah is corrupt; but thanks to US sanctions on Syria and Iran, the Hezbollah may be running out of cash.
Then the cops, all riot shields and batons, formed two ranks between the Hezbollah and their adversaries.
โI have come from Nabatieh and I have been here eight days and nothing has happened,โ the Shiite โ no friend of the Hezbollah even though Nabatieh is in the militiaโs effective area of control โ shouted back.
So is this to be the new pattern of Lebanonโs โrevolutionโ? Will the attacks start now, as they did in Nabatieh this week, when Hezbollah supporters used batons to clear the townโs central square of protesters?
The signs of government decay are everywhere. When the elderly president Michel Aoun gave a short pre-recorded speech on television on Thursday, it was noticed at once that he had been unable even to complete a short series of sentences in one take. The leather-bound books behind him โ none of which, I suspect, he has ever read โ suddenly changed their position on the shelves between his sentences.
Then a Lebanese journalist, claiming to know all about the broadcast, said that Aoun had fallen asleep between his sentences.
Aoun and prime minister Hariri had earlier told the countryโs interior minister, Raya al-Hassan, that she must order the interior police to use water cannons to clear the streets of Beirut and the countryโs main highways.
โI will not give this order,โ she replied. โThis matter is political. It is not a security matter.โ Hassan, needless to say, is perhaps the only popular government minister in this country. Nor are the cops or the army unsympathetic to the protesters. Two soldiers were caught on camera weeping with emotion.
Then came the video of minister Akram Shayeb leaving his downtown office to find protesters outside the door. His bodyguards raised their rifles โ some of them apparently fired shots in the air โ and one pointed his gun at a young woman. โDonโt you threaten us,โ she cried, ran forward and kicked the gunman in the testicles. The image of her now famous kick is spray-painted on the walls of central Beirut.
In Martyrsโ Square, the tens of thousands of demonstrators had no time for talk of government โreformโ. Nor was there a word about a proposed tax on WhatsApp. The men and women here were highly educated, many with their children, and in many cases professionals: doctors, lawyers, university staff. If this protest fails โ and what they want, of course, is constitutional change โ they will in many cases leave their country forever, impoverishing Lebanon for generations.
But they were not all rich. I saw poorly dressed farming men and women, in plastic shoes, no socks and dirty clothes. When the sky poured, an old man with a crumpled face and a clutch of plastic umbrellas over his arm ran to me and offered to sell me a brolly for 5,000 Lebanese pounds โ about ยฃ2.50. When I gave him the money he put it to his lips and kissed the banknotes over and over again, the poor manโs way of expressing his thanks for good fortune.
The crowds here were deeply impressed by a Shiite cleric whose sermon in Beirut told the people they were right to demand freedom from a sectarian government. โYour religion is between you and God,โ Sheikh Yasser Audi said. โFreedom must be exercised, the Prophet said this.โ The Lebanese army commander, General Joseph Aoun โ no relation to the near-speechless president โ ordered his soldiers to use no violence against any demonstrators. If they were to be forced back, it must be by pushing them with their bodies, and not by drawing weapons.
I saw several Lebanese soldiers ostentatiously shouldering their weapons with the barrels down and the butts up, a traditional symbol of military personnel when they wish to show they do not intend to use violence. But then again, I saw this in Cairo during the 2011 Egyptian revolution โ and look what happened to that.
Amid the government โ or what is left of it since the Christian Lebanese Forces ministers have resigned โ there was talk of Gebran Bassil, the deeply unpopular foreign minister who is indeed the son-in-law of the near-speechless president, being prepared to resign if the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt withdrew his cabinet members from the government.
If this is window dressing, the idea is clearly intended to let the mass protests simmer down. Iโm not at all sure, however, that this would any longer work.
The bolder street demonstrations become, the greater their demands. And the cry for an entirely new constitution that will utterly abandon the sectarian system of government in Lebanon has grown stronger and stronger. There are many in the Arab and Muslim world who will wish them to fail. Bashar al-Assad for one, Sisi of Egypt for another. Certainly Iran. And the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, whose petty โreformsโ are now utterly overshadowed by the real shout for freedom in Lebanon.
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You can see why all the Arab dictators and kings fear this. If Lebanonโs people โ especially its young people โ succeed in their vast undertaking, then the millions of suppressed and poorly educated men and women across the Arab world will ask why they too cannot have these same freedoms. France supports the Lebanese demonstrators โ which is a bit odd since it was the French after the First World War who imposed this vile sectarianism upon Lebanon.
The Americans claim they are on the side of the protests. But I suspect this is because they want the Hezbollah to be disowned by the Lebanese โ rather than a new free nation in the Middle East.
Well, we shall see.
In the meantime, we will also find out what Hezbollah has in store.
There is a palpable fear on the streets of Beirut. More than one of the interior ministry cops, I noticed, were wearing black face masks to hide their identity.
More powerful than the Lebanese army, the Hezbollah obviously fears for its own popularity, and worries that it will in the future be cast into the outer darkness of Lebanonโs sectarian world rather than hero-worshipped. Their appearance at the demonstration in Riad Solh Street was extremely sinister. And be sure it will happen again.
Who would have thought that the winners of the 2006 war with Israel would align themselves with the political and corrupt elites of Lebanon?
A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For October 25-26/2019 Addressing the Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon Compiled By: Elias Bejjani October 25-26/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 25-26/2019 Nasrallah Warns of Civil War, Asks Hizbullah to โLeave Squaresโ and Protesters to Pick Representatives Nasrallah says government is here to stay; prepare for the worst Army Issues Clarification about Alleged Assault against Protester Hariri Meets Aoun, Saniora Says PM Seeking โConsensus on New Govt.โ Injuries, Arrests as Hizbullah Supporters Attack Riad al-Solh Protesters Lebanon: Prosecutor Ghada Aoun Calls For Lifting Immunities Then Recovering Looted Money Lebanon: Hezbollah Supporters Take to the Sit-In, Security Forces Keep Them Away Protests Continue to Paralyze Lebanon, S&P Says Saver Confidence Tested Lebanonโs FPM Resentful, Studies Options International Support Group Advises Lebanonโs Leaders to Create โPolitical Shockโ Hizbullah Supporters Clash with Protesters in al-Fakiha, Incident Reported in Masnourieh Lebanon Protesters Reject Concessions, Block Key Roads One person lightly injured after shooting near Riad al-Solh square in Beirut Protesters Stay on Streets despite Riad al-Solh Clashes, Hizbullah-AMAL Demos Tensions Rattle Protests after Attacks by Hizbullah Supporters Roukoz Calls for โTotalโ Govt. Change Jumblatt: Hezbollah considers what is happening an American-Israeli conspiracy
The Latest English LCCC Lebaneseย Related News published on October 25-26/2019 Nasrallah Warns of Civil War, Asks Hizbullah to โLeave Squaresโ and Protesters to Pick Representatives Naharnet/October 25/2019 Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday warned the Lebanese that the ongoing anti-government protests might descend into โchaosโ, โcollapseโ and โcivil war,โ as he called on Hizbullahโs supporters to leave the protest squares. โThe protest movement is no longer spontaneous and it is being led by known parties and political forces and some sides are funding it,โ Nasrallah cautioned in a televised address. โThe situation in Lebanon has entered the phase of international exploitation with the help of domestic sides,โ he warned. Expressing fear that Lebanon might be โdragged into political tensions and civil war,โ Nasrallah said he fears for โthe entire country, not the resistance.โ โAny solution must avoid a plunge into vacuum, because vacuum would be very dangerous,โ Nasrallah said. โWe do not accept the fall of the presidential tenure and we do not support the governmentโs resignation, and amid these circumstances we do not accept to go to early parliamentary polls,โ he added. Addressing protesters, Hizbullahโs leader suggested that protesters will not be able to agree on an electoral law and said: โIf you want early parliamentary polls, elect your representatives and agree on an electoral law and we will back you unconditionally.โNasrallah also acknowledged that the blocking of roads is a legitimate protest tactic but called for the reopening of roads blocked since October 17, accusing some protesters of โsetting up checkpointsโ and โasking for IDs.โCalling on โthe supporters of the resistanceโ to leave protest squares, Nasrallah added that he โrespectsโ the protesters who choose to stay there. โLet the leaders of the protest movement show their real face and let them go to the judiciary to prove that they are not corrupt and let them lift their bank secrecy,โ Nasrallah said, calling on them to โreassure the resistance.โโSome of the protest movementโs leaders are patriotic and honest while some of the protest movementโs leaders are known political parties,โ he suggested. โItโs about time this protest movement had leaders,โ Nasrallah said, calling on the protest movement to dispatch representatives to meet with President Michel Aoun. Noting that the reform paper presented by Prime Minister Saad Hariri โis for implementationโ and is not โmere promises,โ Hizbullahโs leader added that his party โwill not allow procrastination in its implementation.โ โ The reform paper was ridiculed in a strange manner by some leaders of the protest movement and this raises suspicions. How can someone disavow their own achievements,โ he lamented.
Nasrallah says government is here to stay; prepare for the worst Elias Sakr/Annahar/October 25/2019 Power void or not, Lebanonโs economic and financial crises will worsen as the country remains politically isolated. I share Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallahโs worries that Lebanon might plunge into chaos in the wake of these ongoing demonstrations to topple the government. I even warned of such a scenario in recent op-eds And yes, I share his belief that his political opponents, maybe with the support of foreign powers, are working hard to topple the government, which his armed group and President Michel Aounโs Free Patriotic Movement dominate. And yes, I share his concerns that this revolution will accelerate Lebanonโs economic and financial collapse. But that doesnโt change the fact that this ruling class must listen to its people. And this ruling class includes Hezbollah, whose decision to align Lebanon with Iran, has led to US sanctions and our countryโs isolation from the GCC, thus contributing to our current economic and financial crises. Yes, our crises have roots in decades of post-war corruption by those that remain represented in todayโs Cabinet, which Nasrallah is defending under the pretext that a malfunctioning and corrupt government is better than plunging Lebanon into a power void. That, Iโm not so sure of. Power void or not, Lebanonโs economic and financial crises will worsen as the country remains politically isolated. A power void only accelerates the inevitable, which will pave the way for a long due revamp of Lebanonโs economic model; a revamp that will be painful but necessary. More importantly, prosperity, accountability and sustainable development are impossible to achieve under a weak state where the rule of law doesnโt prevail and the elected government doesnโt dictate foreign and defense policies. As long as Hezbollah controls an armed group that owes allegiance to a foreign power, in this case Iran, Lebanon will remain a weak state plagued by corruption. If Nasrallah truly wants to spare Lebanon chaos, he ought to listen to the Lebanese. One way to do that is to support free early parliamentary elections. But it seems Nasrallah has made up his mind: this government is here to stay. So, prepare for the worst.
Army Issues Clarification about Alleged Assault against Protester Naharnet/October 25/2019 The Army Command responded via its official Twitter account to video footage that circulated on social media on Friday about a military member allegedly attacking a woman. The statement said: A video circulated on social media showing a military member attacking a woman. To clarify, this act was a reaction to an assault against the militaryโs wife and his child when someone threw hot coffee at them in the Furn al-Shebbak area. The woman and her child were trying to cross the road on foot when protesters prevented them to pass through by car.
Hariri Meets Aoun, Saniora Says PM Seeking โConsensus on New Govt.โ Naharnet/October 25/2019 Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Friday held talks at the Baabda Palace with President Michel Aoun, as unprecedented anti-government protests rocked the country for a ninth day. Hariri left the palace without making a statement. Ex-PM Fouad Saniora meanwhile said Hariri โwants to reach consensus on the formation of a new government prior to the resignation of the incumbent government.โTV networks meanwhile quoted al-Mustaqbal Movementโs political bureau as saying that Haririโs resignation would be โpolitical suicide.โ Injuries, Arrests as Hizbullah Supporters Attack Riad al-Solh Protesters Naharnet/October 25/2019 Several people were injured Friday as Hizbullah supporters launched fresh attacks on protesters at Beirutโs Riad al-Solh Square. Riot police immediately intervened and separated between the two groups, making several arrests. LBCI television reported violent scuffles between police and the pro-Hizbullah group. The Hizbullah supporters had chanted slogans against Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. Media reports said the supporters had arrived together in buses and were carrying batons. MTV meanwhile reported an assault on its crew in Riad al-Solh.
Lebanon: Prosecutor Ghada Aoun Calls For Lifting Immunities Then Recovering Looted Money Beirut โ Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019 Mount Lebanon Prosecutor, Judge Ghada Aoun, expressed her support for the Lebanese peopleโs right โto know the truth, and to see certain people being held accountable for their actions.โโI work within the scope of my powers and I have discretionary authority,โ she told reporters in her office at the Baabda Justice Palace. Aoun emphasized that the people โmust demand the lifting of immunities first in case we want to recover the looted funds.โThe Mount Lebanon prosecutor brought charges against former Prime Minister Najib Mikati, as well as Bank Audi on Wednesday for โillicit enrichment.โThe charges brought by Aoun were also against Mikatiโs son Maher and his brother Taha and were based on claims that the defendants received subsidized housing loans. The case was referred to Beirutโs acting First Investigative Judge George Rizk. Bank Audi denied any involvement in any โillegitimate enrichmentโ. Mikati also refuted the charges, according to his communications adviser who claimed the case was politically motivated. Stressing โsympathy with the citizensโ, Aoun said the charges against the former prime minister were not politically driven. โI did not choose a file randomly. Iโve been investigating this for about a year,โ she said. โI support investigating any such case because it is the right of the people to know and hold their leaders accountable โฆ and cases related to judicial corruption, Iโve transferred them to the investigative judge,โ she emphasized.
Lebanon: Hezbollah Supporters Take to the Sit-In, Security Forces Keep Them Away Beirut โ Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019 Internal security forces on Friday expelled a group of Hezbollah supporters, who infiltrated the sit-in in downtown Beirut, chanting in support of the partyโs secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and against the head of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea. Demonstrations continued in several Lebanese areas for the eighth consecutive day and protesters blocked major roads leading to the main cities. Security sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the internal security forces made reinforcements in Riyadh al-Solh Square to keep Hezbollah supporters away from the sit-in, stressing its commitment to protect the protesters. Many demonstrators considered the chants of Hezbollahโs supporters as provocative, as they appeared in black shirts, and others felt that the infiltration was a form of โintimidation.โThe partyโs supporters said they rejected accusations of corruption against Nasrallah, stressing that they suffered like the rest of the Lebanese population, but that their leader was not corrupt. As they recited slogans in support of Nasrallah, many protesters feared an escalation and withdrew to nearby sites. Security forces participated on Thursday in the protection of demonstrators, who poured into the center of Beirut after the speech of Lebanese President Michel Aoun, despite the rainy weather, to express their mistrust in the ruling authority. The British Embassy in Beirut called for listening to the demands of the Lebanese people who expressed their legitimate frustration. โA week after these protests started, the Lebanese people have expressed legitimate frustrations, which must be heard. This is an important moment for Lebanon: the necessary reforms should be implemented urgently,โ the Embassy said on its Twitter account. โThe UK will continue to support a secure, stable, sovereign and prosperous Lebanon, including a stronger and fairer economy, quality education for all, improved services, and enhanced security,โ it added.
Protests Continue to Paralyze Lebanon, S&P Says Saver Confidence Tested Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019 Lebanese protesters remained on the streets for a ninth day on Friday and a global credit ratings agency said the governmentโs limited capacity to address demonstrator demands could further test depositor confidence and weigh on foreign exchange reserves. The protests have cut roadways, closed schools and shut banks nationwide. Banks are set to remain closed until the situation stabilizes out of safety concerns, the banking association said on Thursday. Emergency reform measures and an offer of dialogue with protest representatives by the president have so far failed to defuse anger or move people from the street. The protests have been fueled by dire economic conditions and anger at the political elite accused of plundering state resources for personal gain, bringing turmoil to the streets of a nation already in deep economic crisis. As politicians ponder ways out, the clock is ticking because of financial strains in Lebanon. Exacerbating the economic situation, capital inflows vital to financing the state deficit and imports have been slowing down, generating financial pressures not seen in decades, including the emergence of a black market for dollars. In a report issued on Thursday, credit ratings agency Standard & Poorโs placed Lebanonโs ratings on โcreditwatch negativeโ. It said this โreflects our view that declining foreign currency inflows could exacerbate fiscal and monetary pressures while limiting the governmentโs response to pressing societal demandsโ. While the central bankโs usable foreign currency reserves were sufficient to service government debt in the near term, risks to government creditworthiness have risen, it said. There was โat least a one-in-two chanceโ S&P could lower the governmentโs ratings following a review within the next three months into how the government responds to current pressures and its effectiveness in restoring depositor confidence. It also said that despite reasonably high levels of gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, of almost $50 billion the imposition of โsoft capital controls raise questions about the monetary regimeโ. โWe understand that banks have imposed restrictions on US dollar withdrawals,โ S&P said. Deposit outflows totaled $2.1 billion for the first eight months of the year. The central bankโs usable foreign exchange reserves are estimated to stand at $19 billion at the end of 2019, it said. The government this week announced reforms that include a one-time tax on bank profits and cuts to salaries of top officials, saying the measures would narrow the 2020 budget deficit to 0.6 percent. โIn our view, recent widespread protests suggest that the governmentโs dual aim of maintaining social stability and implementing reforms to reduce the general government deficit could be difficult to reconcile,โ the S&P report said.
Lebanonโs FPM Resentful, Studies Options Beirut โ Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019 A member of the Strong Lebanon parliamentary bloc expressed his strong dissatisfaction with the situation in the street, saying that the โcompass has been lost.โHe said that the protests were now mainly targeting the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), its leader and President Michel Aoun. The FPM deputy said he was surprised that he and his colleagues now have to stay home for fear of being attacked. Aoun supporters remained silent about the popular movement in its early days, until FPM President and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil appeared in Baabda Palace to talk about the โgreat collapse or the bold rescueโ, warning of โchaos in the street and seditionโ. On Thursday, a video circulated on the social media, showing Bassil in the central office of the Free Patriotic Movement, where some of his supporters gathered. He told them: โWe are strong, do not be afraid and do not shake.โDozens of supporters organized a sit-in in front of the Palace of Justice in Baabda, in conjunction with a speech addressed by President Michel Aoun on Thursday, during which they raised the Lebanese flags exclusively. Following a meeting chaired by Bassil, the FPM Political Council said in a statement that the cause carried by the demonstrators was that of the FPM, โwhich considers itself an integral part of this popular situation.โHe cautioned that internal and external forces have โexploited the righteous anger of the people to strike stability, spread chaos and weaken the rule; this is what we will not accept.โโAs far as we support the right popular demands, we will be tough in the face of saboteurs,โ the statement emphasized. The council insisted on โissuing laws to lift immunity and bank secrecy and recover looted fundsโ, adding that the members have โconfirmed their commitment to lift bank secrecy from their accounts.โ
International Support Group Advises Lebanonโs Leaders to Create โPolitical Shockโ Beirut โ Mohamed Choucair/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 25 October, 2019 The International Support Group (ISG) for Lebanon informed officials in Beirut that the government should make a โpolitical shockโ along with the quick implementation of reforms approved by the cabinet in its last session, ministerial sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. During their meetings with Lebanese officials, ISG representatives avoided discussing details of the shock that they hope would produce a change to meet the demands of protesters. โHowever, the Group noted that Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat do not object a cabinet reshuffle on condition that it receives the approval of President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah,โ the sources said. On the eight day of demonstrations, thousands of people flooded the streets, angry with a political class they accuse of pushing the economy to the point of collapse, demanding the governmentโs resignation. On Thursday, Aoun met with the UN Secretary Generalโs Representative in Lebanon, Jan Kubis, who briefed him on the position of the ISG on the latest developments. Members of the Group visited Hariri on Tuesday and held a meeting at UN offices in Yarzeh upon the request of Kubis. Ministerial sources said that Hariri told his visitors this week that he supports producing a political shock in the country. โThis is what the PM has been working on during his contacts with officials. Hariri deals with the popular movement as the product of a political crisis that can only be solved through politics, and not through security measures,โ the sources added. During a meeting held between Berri and a PSP delegation on Thursday, Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said that Aoun would not accept a cabinet reshuffle if it includes the removal of Free Patriotic Movement leader, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, according to the same sources. Aoun fears that scapegoating Bassil, who is his son-in-law, would benefit the Lebanese Forces, which would launch a political and media campaign against Hezbollah and would destabilize the support provided by the FPM to the Shiite party.
Hizbullah Supporters Clash with Protesters in al-Fakiha, Incident Reported in Masnourieh Naharnet/October 25/2019 A clash erupted Friday evening in the Bekaa town of al-Fakiha between protesters and supporters of Hizbullah. The clash involved a fistfight and attacks on cars and the army eventually contained the situation, LBCI TV said. Gunshots were also fired in the air during the incident. Separately, a clash was reported in the Metn town of Mansourieh between protesters and a group of young men. The army intervened and separated between the two groups. Tensions surged on the streets ahead of and after a speech by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah as supporters of his party clashes with protesters and riot police in downtown Beirut. Supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement later staged demos in the capital and several Lebanese regions.
Lebanon Protesters Reject Concessions, Block Key Roads Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 25/2019 Anti-corruption protesters cut off major roads in Lebanon for a ninth day Friday, pledging to keep paralysing the country despite an offer by the president to meet their representatives. The demonstrators, who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon prompting the closure of banks and schools, have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing it of systematic corruption. Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Lebanonโs largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the demonstrations, which have drawn Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze. Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colours normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanonโs political leaders. โAll of them means all,โ has been a popular slogan. In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands. But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections. โWe want to stay on the street to realise our demands and improve the country,โ one protester, who asked to be identified only by his first name Essam, told AFP. โWe want the regime to fallโฆ The people are hungry and there is no other solution in front of us,โ said Essam, a 30-year-old health administrator. Hizbulah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was due to give a speech later on Friday. โRisk of chaosโ On Friday morning, protesters again cut some of Beirutโs main highways, including the road to the airport and the coast road towards second city Tripoli and the north. On the motorway north of Beirut, demonstrators had erected tents and stalls in the centre of the carriageway. But there was no sign any move by the army to try to reopen the road. In central Beirut, where street parties have gone on into the early hours, groups of volunteers again gathered to collect the trash. โWe are on the street to help clean up and clean up the country,โ volunteer Ahmed Assi said. โWe will take part in the afternoon to find out what the next stage will be,โ said the 30-year-old, who works at a clothing company. In a rare moment of violence in the otherwise peaceful demonstrations, scuffles broke out in central Beirut on Thursday, injuring one protester, when Hezbollah members began chanting slogans in support of their leader.ย The partisan display grated with the non-sectarian atmosphere cultivated by most of the protesters. Lebanonโs Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah, headlined its front page โRisk of chaosโ, saying the movement had pledged to work to reopen blocked roads. Hezbollah maintains a large, well-disciplined military wing. Fares al-Halabi, a 27-year-old activist and researcher at a non-governmental organisation, told AFP that โthe Lebanese parties are trying to penetrate the demonstrations and put pressure on them or split them.โ Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between the rival faction leaders has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year civil war in neighbouring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanonโs population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. The post-war political system was supposed to balance the competing interests of Lebanonโs myriad sects but its effect has been to entrench power and influence along sectarian lines.
One person lightly injured after shooting near Riad al-Solh square in Beirut Jake Boswell and Lauren Holtmeier/Special to Al Arabiya/English .Friday, 25 October 2019 At least one person has been lightly injured after a reported shooting near Riad al-Solh square, one of two main protest sites in central Beirut, a security source confirmed to Al Arabiya. โThere was a shooting that came from one car that was part of a convoy of motorcycles that was coming out of the suburb. It slightly injured one person close to Omar Beyhum on the external highway and the army intervened,โ the source said. Earlier in the day, Hezbollah supporters clashed with protesters in Beirut, according to Al Arabiyaโs correspondent. Riot police came in to separate the two groups, Al Arabiya reported, as the army reiterated its pledge to protect demonstrators. Ongoing protests entered its ninth day on Friday with many Lebanese calling for the current ruling class and government to step down. Hezbollahโs Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said on Friday that he will not accept demands for early elections, the bringing down of Lebanonโs president nor the resignation of the government. He added that he had trust in the government to work on reforms introduced by Prime Minister Saad Hariri on October 21. So far, the largely peaceful protests have seen Lebanese from all sects and social classes take to the streets following a string of worsening economic conditions in the country, where the final catalyst was a tax introduced on WhatsApp. However, in recent days and following Nasrallahโs speech, there has been a slight uptick in the number of visible Hezbollah supporters on the street, marking a break from the cross-sectarian unity of the other protestors. In his speech, Nasrallah instructed his supporters to leave the streets but also said that if Hezbollah participated in the protest it would become a political protest rather than a civil one. Protesters Stay on Streets despite Riad al-Solh Clashes, Hizbullah-AMAL Demos Associated Press/Naharnet/October 25/2019 Lebanese protesters set up tents, blocking traffic in main thoroughfares and sleeping in public squares on Friday to enforce a civil disobedience campaign and keep up the pressure on the government to step down. By early afternoon, scuffles broke out in the epicenter of the protests in central Beirut, when supporters of Hizbullah entered the area to reject chants against their leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was named by the protest movement as one among the political elite who must leave. โNasrallah is more honorable than all of them,โ the pro-Hizbullah protesters chanted. They scuffled with the protesters who were previously in the square until riot police tried to break up the fight. The scuffles came shortly before Nasrallah was due to speak. Anger has been building among Hizbullah supporters because the protesters named him, along with other corrupt politicians. At least two protesters were injured in the scuffles. The riot police encircled the pro-Hizbullah protesters, who carried batons, separating them from the other protesters. But tension returned when the protesters moved down the main road, lobbing stones and at one point attacking a TV crew from a station aligned with a Hizbullah rival. Some protesters chanted for calm. The riot police formed layered lines to separate the Hizbullah supporters from the other protesters. Later on Friday, supporters of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement roamed the streets in Beirutโs southern suburbs and the southern city of Tyre, some of them on motorcycles, in a show of force and allegiance. Protesters meanwhile started flocking to the Riad al-Solh and Martyrs squares in downtown Beirut after the end of the scuffles. Banks, universities and schools remained closed Friday, the ninth day of nationwide protests, which initially were triggered by new proposed taxes that followed public spending cuts. Earlier Friday, protesters briefly closed the highway linking the southern city of Sidon to Beirut, burning tires and blocking traffic. The army later removed the tires and reopened the road. On the highway linking eastern and western Beirut, protesters set up tents, some sleeping on the road, to block traffic. They allowed only ambulances and army vehicles through. Protesters waved banners that read: โYou have put up with the state, bear with us for a couple of days,โ to motorists who arrived at a blocked road linking eastern Beirut to its southern suburbs. In its first official warning, the army urged the protesters to respect the right of the people to move, calling on them to stop blocking roads. โThe Army Command warns against continued use of these means, obstructing personal and public freedom,โ the military said in a statement on its official Twitter account. Amnesty International said the Lebanese protesters are making their voices heard in a peaceful manner, including the blocking of roads. Despite government promises of reforms, the leaderless protesters have dug in, saying the countryโs incumbent officials are corrupt and must go. โWe will accept nothing less than the resignation of the government, the president, dissolving the parliament and holding early parliamentarian elections,โ said Mohammad Mazloum, an engineer who has been protesting since the protests began on Oct. 17. Mazloum said he spent the night in the tent set up on one of the highways. The unprecedented mass protests come amid a deepening economic crisis in Lebanon. They have united Lebanese against the countryโs sectarian-based leaders, who have ruled since the end of Lebanonโs 1975-90 civil war. Lebanon is one of the worldโs most indebted nations, with public debt over 150 percent of the gross domestic product. The protesters accuse the politicians of amassing wealth even as the country gets poorer. He said he and fellow protesters from various cities and sects have been putting their heads together to come up with new, alternative names to the incumbent politicians. The countryโs top politicians have addressed the protesters, telling them they have heard their complaints. Prime Minister Saad Hariri presented a reform program which was only passed in the Cabinet after street pressure. President Michel Aoun asked the protesters to send representatives for talks with him. Nasrallah has warned that the resignation of the Cabinet would plunge Lebanon into political feuding and possibly chaos and even โcivil war.โ
Tensions Rattle Protests after Attacks by Hizbullah Supporters Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/October 25/2019 Tensions rattled Lebanonโs nine-day protest movement Friday as supporters of Hizbullah clashed with protesters and riot police at Beirutโs Riad al-Solh Square. The demonstrators โ who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon โ have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing many across different parties of systematic corruption. Nasrallah in a televised speech Friday warned that any cabinet resignation would lead to โchaos and collapseโ of the economy. โWe do not support the resignation of the government,โ he said. Lebanonโs national flag, instead of his partyโs colors, was seen behind him. Hizbullah is a major political player in Lebanon and with its allies holds the majority in the cabinet. Nasrallah also called on his partisans to leave the streets after scuffles broke out in Beirut between them and other anti-graft protesters. Unprecedented protests have erupted in some Hizbullah strongholds, but some of its supporters have also taken offense to slogans against their leader. In the capitalโs main square, protesters fell silent to listen to Nasrallahโs speech broadcast on loudspeakers. As it neared its end, the police moved in to separate Hizbullah supporters from the rest of the demonstrators, an AFP correspondent said. Before they retreated, Hizbullah backers threw rocks, plastics bottles and branches at the other demonstrators, who responded in kind chanting โRevolutionโ. TV networks meanwhile reported a clash between protesters and Hizbullah supporters in the Bekaa town of al-Fakiha. In Beirut, MTV said shots were fired at retreating Hizbullah supporters in the Qasqas area, injuring three of them. The army has since deployed heavily in the area to preserve security. The army and special forces deployed along the road outside Hizbullahโs stronghold in Beirut, apparently to prevent renewed friction. Members of Hizbullah also deployed on entrance and exits to the southern suburbs, in a clear move to block supporters from heading to central Beirut. โAll of themโ Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Lebanonโs largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the protests. Drawing in Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze, the street movement has largely been peaceful โ evolving into celebrations after nightfall. Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanonโs political leaders. โAll of them means all,โ has been a popular slogan. After initially welcoming the protests as spontaneous, Nasrallah on Friday insinuated that the protesters were being manipulated. In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands. But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections. โWe want to stay on the street to realize our demands and improve the country,โ one protester, who asked to be identified only by his first name Essam, told AFP. โWe want the regime to fallโฆ The people are hungry and there is no other solution in front of us,โ said Essam, a 30-year-old health administrator. Blocked roads On Friday morning, protesters again cut some of Beirutโs main highways, including the road to the airport and the coastal road towards second city Tripoli and the north. On the motorway north of Beirut, demonstrators had erected tents and stalls in the center of the carriageway. The army in a statement urged demonstrators to refrain from such measures and โrespect of freedom of circulation.โ Rights group Amnesty International defend blocking roads as โlegitimateโ, and called on Lebanese authorities to โrefrain from trying to forcefully disperse peaceful assemblies.โ On Thursday, scuffles had already broken out in central Beirut, injuring one protester. Lebanonโs Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hizbullah, early Friday already headlined its front page โRisk of chaosโ, saying the movement had pledged to work to reopen blocked roads. Hizbullah is the only movement not to have disarmed after Lebanonโs 15-year civil war. Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between them has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year war in neighboring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanonโs population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. Roukoz Calls for โTotalโ Govt. Change Naharnet/October 25/2019 MP Shamel Roukoz said he backs a total governmental change and that a new government of specialists must be formed as soon as possible to address the current situation in Lebanon, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Friday. Protests in Lebanon entered week two and have morphed into a cross-sectarian street mobilisation against a political system seen as corrupt and broken. Roukoz of the Strong Lebanon Bloc and the son-in-law of President Michel Aoun, said that forming a small government of โspecialists is needed to get the country out of the current crisis, address the social situation, and launch an economic renaissance and fight corruption.โRoukoz added: โLet the President and Prime Minister quickly choose distinctive names to get this going as it should.โOn Thursday, Aoun offered to meet the protesters whose week-old mobilisation to demand a complete overhaul of the political system has brought the country to a standstill. But Aounโs first speech since the start of the unprecedented protest movement was met with disdain by demonstrators who see him and the entire political class as part of the problem, not the solution. โNow there is no state for me, the government is not meeting, and decisions are not taken,โ he said. โA new government can be formed in a matter of days to make a quick and clean change,โ he added. Jumblatt: Hezbollah considers what is happening an American-Israeli conspiracy Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Friday, 25 October 2019 Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said on Friday that Lebanese Hezbollah considers the situation in the country to be an American-Israeli conspiracy. โThe country is divided. Hezbollah considers what is happening an American-Israeli conspiracy,โ Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said in an interview with Al Hadath. Hezbollah supporters are reported to have clashed with protesters in Beirut on Friday, according to Al Arabiyaโs correspondent. Minor scuffles between protesters and Hezbollah supporters in Riad Al Solh square in Beirut were reported Thursday night. There are fears of Hezbollah and Amal supporters disrupting the protests, after men on motorbikes tried to get through to demonstrators on Monday night. Protesters have also been attacked in Nabatieh and Sour in the south of the country. Jumblatt said on Thursday in a tweet that the best solution out of mass protests triggered by an economic crisis is to speed up a government reshuffle as proposed by Lebanese President Michel Aoun.
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials Related To Lebanon from miscellaneous sources publishedon October 25-26/2019 The Military in the Middle/Aram Nerguizian/Carnegie/October 25/2019 Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current/MEMRI/October 25/2019 Hezbollah threatens the peaceful and non-sectarian protests in Lebanon/Robert Fisk/Independent/October 25/2019 People are not fooled: The Lebanese governmentโs reforms are not the solution/Sami Atallah/Al Arabiya/October 25/2019 Lebanonโs 9th day of protests witness rise in violence/Tarek Aliahmad/ Arab News/October 25/ 2019 Why Soleimani Misreads Lebanon/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 25/2019 Lebanonโs crisis is caused by Iran/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/October 25/2019 Lebanonโs revolution: I am terrified of the morning after/Ayah Bdier/Annahar/October 25, 2019 A Surge in Protests around the World in October/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 25/2019
The Military in the Middle Aram Nerguizian/Carnegie/October 25/2019 In a period of unpredictable change, Lebanonโs armed forces are indispensable to internal stability. Lebanonโs ongoing street protests against the political class and the sectarian political order have made the Lebanese armed forces indispensable to internal stability during a time of unpredictable change. The institutionโs mission parameters are deceptively simple: protect key government institutions and the public, and stand for and with the protesters. To that end, the military has deployed all of its operational unitsโ80 percent of some 80,000 personnel. Throughout these unprecedented protests, the armed forces have worked to maintain a contentious balance between the needs and fears of Lebanonโs sectarian system and the demands and aspirations of a newly energized public. The institution has sidestepped calls from the countryโs competing factions to bring the protests to an end, thus preserving the unique goodwill that the military enjoys. As uncertainty transforms into a protracted cycle of civil unrest, Lebanonโs sectarian political elites will only redouble their demands that the armed forces restore the status quo ante, as will their scrutiny of the intent of the military leadership. But given the armed forcesโ cross-sectarian appeal, the fact that officers and enlisted personnel canโt help but sympathize with the protesters and the truly historic nature of current events, the military faces a key test: It can either maintain the confidence of the large number of protesters, or it can backtrack and trigger a potential catastrophe on a scale few can predict, let alone fully understand. The cross-sectarian character of the armed forces helped cement its role as Lebanonโs most popular national institution. It is also critical to understanding how the military responded to both previous protests and cases of civil unrest. In 2005, when mass demonstrations took place following the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri, the military refused to carry out repressive orders from the Karami government. It had sensed a shift in the balance of power in Lebanon and the region, and opted instead to act as a protective buffer for anti-Syria demonstrators. In contrast, the military chose not to engage militarily during the May 2008 street clashes between Hezbollah and the embryonic militia of the predominantly Sunni Future Movement. During my background discussions with senior military officers in 2014, some described May 2008 as a case of military neutrality. Others saw the armed forcesโ inaction at the time as a watershed event and a key missed opportunity wherein the innocence of the post-Syria military was compromised. Be that as it may, the 2008 crisis underscored the armed forcesโ indispensable domestic role after 2005 as a bulwark against any Sunni-Shiโa military confrontation. To the armed forces the current protests stand apart from past cycles of civil unrest. The anti-Syrian demonstrations of 2005 lacked a robust cross-sectarian character due the absence of the bulk of the Shiโa community and other groups seeking favorable ties with Syria. The 2008 crisis went to the heart of Sunni-Shiโa tensions in Lebanon. And the 2015 โYou Stinkโ protests directed against the breakdown in waste management took place without the participation of much of Lebanonโs poor and the middle classes, who remained beholden to the countryโs competing sectarian political forces. The 2019 protests, in turn, have no equivalent in the countryโs post-Independence history. They have been defined thus far by their broad geographic scope beyond metropolitan Beirut and their inclusiveness across traditionally stubborn sectarian dividing lines. Of critical importance this time are the tremendous risks being taken by poor and middle class Shiโa to participate in protests across Lebanon. Furthermore, the protests also enjoy the support of poor and middle class Sunnis in Tripoli and throughout the country. Throughout the latest events, Lebanese have expressed common narratives tied to collective socioeconomic conditions, citizenship, and national belonging. As a result the protests, born out of frustration with the ruling elite that cuts across class, sectarian, and geographic dividing lines, resonate with the ethos, aspirations, and self-image of todayโs increasingly professional armed forces. Lebanonโs sectarian factions all see the current mix of protests as an existential threat to their postwar political order and have pressed the armed forces to empty the streets and clear roads across the country. However, the military has brushed aside calls to clear protest centers in downtown Beirut and elsewhere. Indeed, army units deterred alleged Amal and Hezbollah sympathizers from disrupting peaceful demonstrations in the downtown. After initially obeying orders to remove roadblocks between Beirut and Jounieh, the armed forces quickly aborted that effort rather than break faith with protestors and the Lebanese in general. Lastly, the military publicly affirmed that it stood with the protestersโ right to demonstrate peacefully, so long as they avoided damage to public and private property. As the civil unrest persists, the armed forces will be asked to play an ever-larger role given the scale of the economic and political challenges to come. To that end, the military must protect its image as a national institution. This will mean navigating Lebanonโs changing political minefield while remaining true to the faith so many Lebanese place in their military. To do otherwise would be a Potemkin moment that could cost the military what it needs most, namely the trust and support of the Lebanese people.
Lebanese Politicians, Journalists, Before The Outbreak Of The Current MEMRI/October 25/2019 Protest-Wave: It Is Hizbullah That Caused The Economic Crisis In The Country In the past week, mass protests have been raging in Lebanon over the high cost of living, the surfeit of taxes, the corruption in the political system and the sectarianism in the country. The protests, which broke out spontaneously on October 17 in response to the governmentโs intention to tax WhatsApp calls, have so far been devoid of any specific sectarian, religious or political character, and seem to involve all sectors of the Lebanese society. They are directed at the Lebanese authorities as a whole, which are accused of corruption and of leading the country into a deep economic crisis. Taking place in numerous locations across Lebanon, the demonstrations refuse to abate despite the governmentโs promise to cancel the new taxes and despite PM Saโd Al-Haririโs announcement of a comprehensive economic rescue plan that includes, among other measures, an increase in taxes on bank profits and cuts to politiciansโ wages. The protestors deem this insufficient and are demanding the resignation of the government and the holding of new parliamentary elections. The mass protests were not unexpected, however, since Lebanon has been in the grip of a severe economic crisis for quite some time. The most conspicuous manifestation of this crisis is a debt of some $100 billion, which has forced the Lebanese government to announce severe austerity measures in order to unlock $11 billion in aid pledged by the donor countries at the CEDRE Conference, held in France on April 6, 2019. The crisis has been exacerbated by the tightening of the U.S. sanctions on Hizbullah and its institutions, and recently also on the Lebanese Jamal Trust bank, which was forced to shut down due to sanctions imposed on it for its financial ties with Hizbullah. In the past month, a dollar shortage in Lebanonโs banking system and a drop in the value of the Lebanese pound have destabilized the economy and sparked protests in specific sectors that later spread to the entire country. In light of the crisis, even before the outbreak of the current mass protests, some Lebanese politicians and journalists held Hizbullah responsible for the economic situation in the country. They claimed that the organizationโs activity in the service of Iran had caused trouble for Lebanon and brought its economy to the point of collapse. Hizbullah, for its part, placed the blame for the crisis on Riad Salameh, the governor of Lebanonโs central bank, who implemented the sanctions on the organization, although this accusation was widely rejected. It should be noted that, since the outbreak of the protests, only very few voices in Lebanon have explicitly held Hizbullah responsible for the dire economic situation. This may be due to the protestersโ desire to avoid lending the demonstrations, which are currently perceived as non-partisan, any sectarian or political orientation, which could alienate parts of the public and thus decrease their momentum. This report will review some of the statements by Lebanese politicians and writers who blamed Hizbullah for the economic crisis before the eruption of the current protests. Lebanese Writers: Lebanon Is Paying The Price Of Hizbullahโs Loyalty To Iranian Axis As stated, even before the outbreak of the protests, Lebanese figures and columnists claimed that the country is paying heavily for Hizbullahโs commitment to Iranโs interests, and that the U.S. sanctions that have been imposed on Hizbullah because of this commitment are affecting the Lebanese economy. Former labor minister Camille Abousleiman (who resigned from the government several days ago along with the other ministers from his party, Samir Geageaโs Lebanese Forces, in response to the protests), said on September 15, 2019: โThe sanctions [on Hizbullah] have a severe impact Lebanon. What is happening in our lives today is the result of [Hizbullahโs] defending Iran and involving Lebanon in its affairsโฆ If Hizbullah decides to confront the U.S. in the economic arena, and if [the U.S.] starts to pressure the banks, as it has done with the Jammal Trust bank, the result will be a catastrophe. That is why I hope the confrontation will remain far away from the economic arenaโฆ Lebanon is experiencing a very grave financial and economic crisis, and we must launch a rescue plan. There is insufficient awareness of the gravity of the situation. Itโs true that an economic emergency situation was declared three weeks ago, but nothing has [actually] been done.โ[1] Ahmad Al-โAyyash, a columnist for the Al-Nahar daily, couched his criticism in harsher terms, writing: โLebanonโs current government, which is under the influence of Iranian [Supreme] Leader Ali Khamenei, is not very different from the Vichy government that was created by the German Fuhrer Adolf Hitler after his conquest of Franceโฆ The influence Hitler wielded by means of this government back then is similar to Khameneiโs influence over the Lebanese government todayโฆ No matter what ultimately befalls the [Iranian] regime, Lebanon will pay heavily for this influence, on every level, as is [already] happening today on the economic levelโฆโ[2] Journalist โAli Al-Amin, known for his opposition to Hizbullah, wrote in the London-based daily Al-Arab that Lebanonโs economy is slipping due to Hizbullahโs black market activity, which is prompted by the U.S. sanctions. โHizbullah,โ he added, โhas conveyed that it will not allow anyone to throttle it by economic means, and that, if it is left with no choice, it will not [face this fate] alone. All of Lebanon will suffocate [with it]โฆโ[3] Lebanese Writer: An Economic Confrontation Between Hizbullah And U.S. Will Lead To Lebanonโs Collapse Lebanese author and journalist Antoine Farah wrote: โHizbullah has decided to confront the [new] sanctions that the U.S. is expected [to impose on it]. The talk we are increasingly hearing, about โplansโ being discussed for this confrontation, does not bode well, [namely the plans to] directly involve the state or to encourage it to โisolateโ the U.S. by suspending cooperation with it and turning to cooperate with other countries!โฆ These creative ideas [of Hizbullahโs] not only hasten [Lebanonโs economic] collapse, but also ensure that the phase following the collapse will be much harder than it will be if [Hizbullah] does not force [the state] to commit suicide. Today we have several models [of what can happen] following an economic collapse. One model is that of Greece, which following its collapse received preferential treatment [from the international community] that helped it complete its recovery within a reasonable period of time and with obvious efficiencyโฆ The other model is that of Venezuela, which reached the point of collapse many years ago but has not yet been able to launch a rescue plan, and the situation of its citizens is [therefore] going from bad to worse. Their country operates outside the international system, [for] it is the spearhead of the resistance axis. As a result, Venezuela does not receive any support worth noting to help it emerge from the pit. It is deep in the abyss. Its people are starving, its food stores are bare, yet the state [keeps saying] โresistance until victory.โ โThose who say that perpetuating the current situation will lead to Lebanonโs collapse are not exaggerating. Hizbullahโs decision to fight the U.S. using the Lebanese peopleโs money will hasten the collapse and will prolong the stay at the bottom, just like in the case of Venezuela.โ[4] Lebanese Officials Condemn Hizbullah For Blaming The Crisis On The Central Bank Governor Even before the outbreak of the protests, as the economic crisis unfolded, Hizbullah and elements close to it began blaming the situation on the Lebanese banks, and especially on central bank governor Riad Salameh, accusing them of treason and of serving the U.S. and collaborating with its sanctions against Hizbullah. Lebanese elements replied that Hizbullah itself was responsible for the crisis and was trying to obscure this by shifting the blame to others. For example, former MP Fares Souโaid tweeted on September 26: โHizbullahโs campaign against the governor of Lebanonโs central bank, Riad Salameh, does him an injustice. [Hizbullah] wants him to be held responsible for the financial crisis, and refuses to admit its own responsibility for this crisis, which is purely political [in origin].โ[5] In another tweet, he wrote: โBlaming the central bank for the [economic] situation, while ignoring the role of Hizbullah, which is the cause of the crisis, is misleading. If Hizbullah takes over Lebanon we will not remain silent over it, even if we are the only ones [to speak out].โ[6] Maronite patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi said that โthe attempt to evade responsibility and place it on one person or institution is worrisome. The state and its institutions are in charge, yet they have not taken any reformative measures or launched any practical initiative to stop the waste and corruptionโฆ It is unacceptable to direct criticism at Lebanonโs [central] bank and at its governor, who has garnered international acclaim and managed to keep the [Lebanese] currency stable in these difficult conditionsโฆ The current authorities must acknowledge their responsibility instead of evading it, shifting the blame to others, and looking for scapegoats, which will [only] undermine [Lebanonโs] social, economic, financial and humanitarian stability.โ[7] [1] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), September 16, 2019. [2] Al-Nahar (Lebanon), September 28, 2019. [3] Al-Arab (London), October 1, 2019. [4] Al-Jumhouriyya (Lebanon), September 16, 2019. [5] Twitter.com/FaresSouaid, September 26, 2019. [6] Twitter.com/FaresSouaid, September 28, 2019. [7] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), September 30, 2019. Hezbollah threatens the peaceful and non-sectarian protests in Lebanon ุฑูุจุฑุช ููุณู/ุงูุฏูุจูุฏูุช: ุญุฒุจ ุงููู ููุฏุฏ ุงูุฅุญุชุฌุงุฌุงุช ุงูุณูู ูุฉ ูู ูุจูุงู ุงูุนุงุจุฑุฉ ููุทูุฆู ูุงูุทุงุฆููุฉ Robert Fisk/Independent/October 25/2019 http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79845/%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%aa-%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b3%d9%83-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%af%d9%86%d8%aa-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%8a%d9%87%d8%af%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5/ It was perfectly clear to all of us that the Hezbollah, heroes of the Lebanese resistance until they began sacrificing themselves on the battlefields of Syria, were attempting to sabotage the entire protest movement Those tens of thousands of largely young protesters demanding a non-sectarian Lebanon were joyful, filled with happiness, determined that this time they would change the wretched confessional nature of their state forever. Then the Hezbollah turned up, a truckload of them, dressed in black and shouting through loudspeakers and holding up posters of their all-Shia militia heroes. Squads of Lebanese interior ministry police appeared in the side streets. It was perfectly clear to all of us that the Hezbollah, heroes of the Lebanese resistance until they began sacrificing themselves on the battlefields of Syria, were attempting to sabotage the entire protest movement. The young men and women in the street shouted as one: โThe government is corrupt, the sectarian leaders are corrupt, all members of parliament are thieves โ thieves, thieves, thieves.โ But they never โ deliberately โ mentioned the name of the Hezbollah chairman Sayed Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah serves in the Lebanese government. And two of the men jumped down from the truck โ big, tough figures towering over the younger protesters โ dodging the police line and moved into the demonstrators, shouting and demanding they end their curses about sectarianism. โThe Sayed [Nasrallah] is the only one who is not corrupt!โ one of them screamed. These men did not come to talk to the protesters or discuss their objections or even argue. They preached at them, raising their voices and bellowing their words. For a moment I wondered if I was perhaps in the holy city of Kerbala or Najaf. There is in fact no evidence that Nasrallah is corrupt; but thanks to US sanctions on Syria and Iran, the Hezbollah may be running out of cash. Then the cops, all riot shields and batons, formed two ranks between the Hezbollah and their adversaries. โI have come from Nabatieh and I have been here eight days and nothing has happened,โ the Shiite โ no friend of the Hezbollah even though Nabatieh is in the militiaโs effective area of control โ shouted back. So is this to be the new pattern of Lebanonโs โrevolutionโ? Will the attacks start now, as they did in Nabatieh this week, when Hezbollah supporters used batons to clear the townโs central square of protesters? The signs of government decay are everywhere. When the elderly president Michel Aoun gave a short pre-recorded speech on television on Thursday, it was noticed at once that he had been unable even to complete a short series of sentences in one take. The leather-bound books behind him โ none of which, I suspect, he has ever read โ suddenly changed their position on the shelves between his sentences. Then a Lebanese journalist, claiming to know all about the broadcast, said that Aoun had fallen asleep between his sentences. Aoun and prime minister Hariri had earlier told the countryโs interior minister, Raya al-Hassan, that she must order the interior police to use water cannons to clear the streets of Beirut and the countryโs main highways. โI will not give this order,โ she replied. โThis matter is political. It is not a security matter.โ Hassan, needless to say, is perhaps the only popular government minister in this country. Nor are the cops or the army unsympathetic to the protesters. Two soldiers were caught on camera weeping with emotion. Then came the video of minister Akram Shayeb leaving his downtown office to find protesters outside the door. His bodyguards raised their rifles โ some of them apparently fired shots in the air โ and one pointed his gun at a young woman. โDonโt you threaten us,โ she cried, ran forward and kicked the gunman in the testicles. The image of her now famous kick is spray-painted on the walls of central Beirut. In Martyrsโ Square, the tens of thousands of demonstrators had no time for talk of government โreformโ. Nor was there a word about a proposed tax on WhatsApp. The men and women here were highly educated, many with their children, and in many cases professionals: doctors, lawyers, university staff. If this protest fails โ and what they want, of course, is constitutional change โ they will in many cases leave their country forever, impoverishing Lebanon for generations. But they were not all rich. I saw poorly dressed farming men and women, in plastic shoes, no socks and dirty clothes. When the sky poured, an old man with a crumpled face and a clutch of plastic umbrellas over his arm ran to me and offered to sell me a brolly for 5,000 Lebanese pounds โ about ยฃ2.50. When I gave him the money he put it to his lips and kissed the banknotes over and over again, the poor manโs way of expressing his thanks for good fortune. The crowds here were deeply impressed by a Shiite cleric whose sermon in Beirut told the people they were right to demand freedom from a sectarian government. โYour religion is between you and God,โ Sheikh Yasser Audi said. โFreedom must be exercised, the Prophet said this.โ The Lebanese army commander, General Joseph Aoun โ no relation to the near-speechless president โ ordered his soldiers to use no violence against any demonstrators. If they were to be forced back, it must be by pushing them with their bodies, and not by drawing weapons. I saw several Lebanese soldiers ostentatiously shouldering their weapons with the barrels down and the butts up, a traditional symbol of military personnel when they wish to show they do not intend to use violence. But then again, I saw this in Cairo during the 2011 Egyptian revolution โ and look what happened to that. Amid the government โ or what is left of it since the Christian Lebanese Forces ministers have resigned โ there was talk of Gebran Bassil, the deeply unpopular foreign minister who is indeed the son-in-law of the near-speechless president, being prepared to resign if the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt withdrew his cabinet members from the government. If this is window dressing, the idea is clearly intended to let the mass protests simmer down. Iโm not at all sure, however, that this would any longer work. The bolder street demonstrations become, the greater their demands. And the cry for an entirely new constitution that will utterly abandon the sectarian system of government in Lebanon has grown stronger and stronger. There are many in the Arab and Muslim world who will wish them to fail. Bashar al-Assad for one, Sisi of Egypt for another. Certainly Iran. And the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, whose petty โreformsโ are now utterly overshadowed by the real shout for freedom in Lebanon. Support free-thinking journalism and attend Independent events You can see why all the Arab dictators and kings fear this. If Lebanonโs people โ especially its young people โ succeed in their vast undertaking, then the millions of suppressed and poorly educated men and women across the Arab world will ask why they too cannot have these same freedoms. France supports the Lebanese demonstrators โ which is a bit odd since it was the French after the First World War who imposed this vile sectarianism upon Lebanon. The Americans claim they are on the side of the protests. But I suspect this is because they want the Hezbollah to be disowned by the Lebanese โ rather than a new free nation in the Middle East. Well, we shall see. In the meantime, we will also find out what Hezbollah has in store. There is a palpable fear on the streets of Beirut. More than one of the interior ministry cops, I noticed, were wearing black face masks to hide their identity. More powerful than the Lebanese army, the Hezbollah obviously fears for its own popularity, and worries that it will in the future be cast into the outer darkness of Lebanonโs sectarian world rather than hero-worshipped. Their appearance at the demonstration in Riad Solh Street was extremely sinister. And be sure it will happen again. Who would have thought that the winners of the 2006 war with Israel would align themselves with the political and corrupt elites of Lebanon? https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lebanon-beirut-protests-whatsapp-tax-hezbollah-michel-aoun-a9170716.html?fbclid=IwAR0OsZTDZc5uqh_8cowxm9Imrmw418Rrz1sBGpcxmZhChEBamzu27WFrnyg
People are not fooled: The Lebanese governmentโs reforms are not the solution Sami Atallah/Al Arabiya/October 25/2019 The governmentโs decision on October 17 to increase taxes and impose a fee on WhatsApp sparked unprecedented protests across Lebanon. These are not the first protests in the country โ but this instance is different. Firstly, the protests are spontaneous and leaderless, as people took themselves to the streets on a Thursday night. Secondly, the protests are not Beirut-centric: They are truly nationwide, including in political party strongholds usually immune to such movements. Thirdly, unlike the 2005 protests following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, those of 2011 against the sectarian system, or those of 2015 which were was triggered by the garbage crisis, this movement is primarily a socio-economic revolt triggered by tax. Taken aback, politicians had to quickly acknowledge the grievances of an estimated one million protesters across the country. But they failed to understand how deep the discontent is. Prime Minister Saad Hariri came out with a 72-hour ultimatum to his coalition members. When it came on Monday, October 21, he announced a list of 25 policy measures to address the socio-economic crisis โ most of these measures had already been proposed in the CEDRE conference back in April 2018. It is striking how popular pressure suddenly sped up the governmentโs ability to act. In three days and one governmental session, it passed measures and bills which far exceeded the two bills โ electricity in April 2019 and the Budget Law 2019 in July โ that took more than 35 sessions held between February and last week. Some of these key measures would be welcome: a reduction of the deficit, a commitment to no additional taxes on the people, the adoption of a pension law, and a pledge to fight corruption. However, many of the measures seem unrealistic and fall short of peopleโs expectations. The reforms are too little, too late, and there are several concerns. It is unclear how the government will reduce the deficit from more than 7 percent to almost 0.6 percent of GDP in one year. The task to cut $5 billion is monumental. The governmentโs claim that it found a way in just three days to achieve this cut, after more than 30 years of chronic budget deficit and without major tax reforms, is suspicious. A roadmap for implementing the plan and putting in place a sustainable and fair public finance framework is missing. Reducing the deficit without taxing the people reveals how arrogant and greedy the political elites have been. They have consistently taxed working people and made them disproportionately carry the tax burden while arguing that there were no other options. The government only backtracked when the unfair tax system triggered this revolt. The governmentโs plan to fight corruption โ adopted from an existing government strategy โ is ridiculous and is merely an attempt to appease donors and suggest it is taking action. This time, people will have none of that. If it were serious about reforms, the government would have prepared or even adopted the draft law to make the judiciary independent. It would have also strengthened the oversight agencies including the procurement office. These are crucial elements to fight corruption but the government has been silent on them. Tellingly, it seems even the prime minister is not convinced of his own plan. He stated that in order to avoid corruption in state contracts, capital investment from taxpayersโ money โ a key part of growth โ will be zero. To state that the foreign-funded capital investment will be free of corruption is to admit that all publicly contracted projects are already infested with corruption. If this is the case, he should be setting up an independent committee to review all these contracts. Likewise, Hariri provided few details on how pension reforms could work or be funded, and the policy seems to be merely another attempt to appease protesters. The prime minister also repeated one of the demonstratorsโ demands โ to give back โstolen money.โ But he clearly has neither the intention nor the means to implement a solution. How could he, when many of those who have contributed to public theft are either politicians, or have strong connections to them? The timeline of the program is also unfeasible, considering how the Lebanese government works. All the proposed policy measures lack credibility, and they hollow out the state rather than build an effective one. There has been a deep failure in governance, and these policy measures cannot and will not be implemented without effective and sustained pressure. There is a chance that Hariri has used the protests to pass measures which had been previously obstructed by his coalition partners to appease donors and gain access to CEDRE money. But this is not what the country needs. We need an effective state that works for the people, an accountable government that we can trust which listens to peopleโs needs, and a social contract where rights are protected and taxes are fairly allocated. None of this has been offered, and people are not fooled. The protesters have made key gains. Not only have they forced the government to cancel its plans to tax working people, but they have imposed their agenda and are shaping political discourse in the country. They are breaking down the limits of possibility defined by the political elite and are drawing up their own set of rules. This is how fair, democratic, and accountable systems emerge. *Sami Atallah is the executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS). He leads several policy studies on subjects including political and social sectarianism, electoral behavior, and governance of the oil and gas sector. He is currently completing his PhD in Politics at New York University.
Lebanonโs 9th day of protests witness rise in violence Tarek Aliahmad/ Arab News/October 25/ 2019 Dressed in plain black t-shirts common to Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movement supporters, the men shouted โwe heed your call, Nasrallahโ Banks, universities and schools remained closed on Friday BEIRUT: Lebanonโs ninth day of anti-government protests witnessed a change in pace as clashes erupted between Hezbollah supporters, protestors and riot police, before and after the groupโs Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallahโs speech. Several people were injured as both sides hurled projectiles at one another. It was a dramatic shift from the morning, when people in Beirutโs Martyrs Square and Riad Al-Solh calmly set up stands of Lebanese merchandise, and vendors prepared their food offerings. Riot police were forced to intervene between both sides in an attempt to deter the projectiles following Nasrallahโs speech โ which was decried as similar to an earlier address given by Prime Minister Saad Hariri. โTheyโre all the same: Hariri, Nasrallah, Aoun, Bassil,โ Alaa Mortada, one of the protestors, told Arab News. โLook at what theyโre doing. Arenโt we all Lebanese? This is why we need to remove religion from politics,โ he added. Nasrallah continued to throw his weight behind the Hariri government, claiming that the protests were an โachievementโ since they pushed the government to announce a budget with no tax. โWe donโt accept toppling the presidency, we also donโt back government resignation,โ he said, adding: โLebanon has entered a dangerous phase, there are prospects that our country will be politically targeted by international, regional powers.โ He ended the speech by urging his supporters to leave the protests. Several arrests were made following the clashes. Similar scuffles broke out on Thursday night at the same site in central Beirut. Following the scuffles more riot police with masks and batons were dispatched to the square to defuse the situation, which appeared to be growing more tense. The demonstrators, who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon prompting the closure of banks and schools, have been demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing it of systematic corruption. The protests are expected to continue throughout the night. Numbers have declined since Sunday, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Lebanonโs largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the demonstrations, which have drawn Christians and Muslims, Shiite, Sunni and Druze. Waving Lebanese national flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanonโs political leaders. In attempts to calm the anger, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has pushed through a package of economic reforms, while President Michel Aoun offered Thursday to meet with representatives of the demonstrators to discuss their demands. But those measures have been given short shrift by demonstrators, many of whom want the government to resign to pave the way for new elections. โWe want to stay on the street to realize our demands and improve the country,โ one protester, who asked to be identified only by his first name Essam, said. โWe want the regime to fall โฆ The people are hungry and there is no other solution in front of us,โ said Essam, a 30-year-old health administrator. On Friday morning, protesters again cut some of Beirutโs main highways, including the road to the airport and the coast road toward second city Tripoli and the north. On the motorway north of Beirut, demonstrators had erected tents and stalls in the center of the carriageway. But there was no sign of any move by the army to try to reopen the road. In central Beirut, where street parties have gone on into the early hours, groups of volunteers again gathered to collect the trash. โWe are on the street to help clean up and clean up the country,โ volunteer Ahmed Assi said. โWe will take part in the afternoon to find out what the next stage will be,โ said the 30-year-old, who works at a clothing company. Lebanonโs Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is close to Hezbollah, headlined its front page โRisk of chaos,โ saying the movement had pledged to work to reopen blocked roads. Hezbollah maintains a large, well-disciplined military wing. Fares Al-Halabi, a 27-year-old activist and researcher at a non-governmental organization, said that โthe Lebanese parties are trying to penetrate the demonstrations and put pressure on them or split them.โ Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between the rival faction leaders has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year civil war in neighboring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanonโs population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. The post-war political system was supposed to balance the competing interests of Lebanonโs myriad sects but its effect has been to entrench power and influence along sectarian lines. โ With input from Reuters
Why Soleimani Misreads Lebanon Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 25/2019 The way the state-controlled media in Tehran put it the wave of protests in Lebanon is about โshowing solidarity with Palestine.โ Photos of a dozen people burning Israeli and American flags in Beirut come with surrealistic captions about โLebanese resistance fightersโ calling for Jihad against โbaby-killing Zionistsโ and the American โGreat Satan.โ What is certain is that the uprising has shaken the parallel universe created by Major-General Qassem Soleimaniโs Madison Avenue depiction of Lebanon as the bridgehead for the conquest of the Middle East by Khomeinist ideology. Those familiar with Tehran propaganda know that the mullahs regard Lebanon as their most successful attempt at empire building, worth every cent of the billions of dollars invested there. Tehran media often boast that Lebanon is the only country where the Islamic Republic controls all levers of power, from the presidency to security services, passing by the Council of Ministers and parliament. More importantly, perhaps, Tehran has forged alliances with powerful figures and groups within every one of the ethnic and sectarian โfamiliesโ that constitute Lebanon. In Iraq, Iran has to contend with the presence of powerful Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties and personalities that, while prepared to accommodate Tehran, refuse to act as puppets. In Yemen, though dependent on Tehranโs money any arms for survival, the Houthis try not to be dragged into the Khomeinist strategy of regional hegemony. In Syria, Tehran has to contend with Bashar al-Assad and remnants of his constituency who regard the Iranian presence as no more than an evil necessity for survival. In Gaza, Tehran owes its sporadic influence to fat checks signed for Hamas, the Palestinian branch of Muslim Brotherhood. However, ideological rivalry between Khomeinism and Ikhwanism, casts a permanent shadow on relations between the two outfits. Moreover, Tehran is forced to contend with the presence of powerful rivals in Iraq, in the shape of the United States, and in Syria in the shape of Russia, and now also Turkey. In his first press interview, headlined by the Tehran media last month, Gen. Soleimani held up Lebanon as the shining example of his success in empire building, vocalizing the parallel universe narrative that has driven the mullahs away from reality. The 6,000-word interview, slated as an account of the 33-day war between Israel and the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, pursues three objectives. The first is to establish Soleimaniโs image as a master strategist who could take on the powerful Israeli army and push it to the edge of destruction. โIf the 33-day war had not been stopped, the Zionist regimeโs army would have disintegrated,โ he asserts without pushing his tongue into his cheek. However, why did the general decide to stop the war and thus save the Israeli army? Soleimani claims that the architect of the ceasefire that saved the Israelis was the then Qatari Prime Minister, Sheikh Hamad, aided by ex-US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton. Soleimani does not explain why he and his boss in Tehran, โSupreme Guideโ Ali Khamenei, agreed to a plan concocted by the Qatari sheikh and the American diplomat to save the Israeli army on the brink of disintegration. Soleimaniโs second aim is to hammer in the claim that the war forced Israel to abandon what he calls โthe Ben Gurion strategy of pre-emptive warโ that meant taking the Arab states to the dentist every 10 years and destroy their armies before they could attempt biting the Jewish state. In other word, if Soleimani is to be believed, Arabs could now sleep in peace, sure that Israel will never launch pre-emptive war against them. The irony is that in the past 18 months Israel has carried out more than 300 attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq causing hundreds of deaths while Soleimani and his mercenaries maintained as low a profile as they could get away with. Of Soleimaniโs three possible aims the most important, perhaps, is the third one. In nonchalant manner, he depicts Lebanon as just a piece of territory without a government of its own, its only justification being a glacis for the Islamic Republic. He speaks of his frequent comings and goings to Lebanon without ever mentioning being invited, let alone given a visa, by any Lebanese authority. Nor does he bother to say who authorized the stream of arms, including thousands of missiles, brought to Lebanon via Iraq and Syria. There is no reference to any agreement by any authority to let a foreign military unit conduct a war against a neighboring country from Lebanese territory. As far as the running of the war is concerned, Soleimani claims that a three-man committee, consisting of himself, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and the late Imad Mughniyah. When the three-man committee could not decide a major issue Soleimani would rush to Tehran, and on one occasion, all the way to Mashโhad, to obtain instructions from Khamenei. No one talked to the Lebanese president, prime minister, defense minister, or army chief, not to mention the Lebanese man-in-the-street who was never told who started the war and why. Unwittingly, Soleimani shows that, though it risked the lives of all Lebanese citizens regardless of sectarian differences, the war that Hezbollah triggered was designed to defeat โa sinister anti-Shiite plotโ by the Israelis to capture 30,000 Lebanese Shiites, keep them in a camp and giving their villages to non-Shiites to change the demographic balance along the ceasefire line. To show the alleged cowardice of non-Shiite Lebanese, Soleimani speaks of โSunni and Christian brothers sitting in their villages, smoking hookah and drinking teaโ while Hezbollah Shiites fought to destroy the โZionist enemyโ. However, lest people see that as a sectarian war, Soleimani states โunder all circumstances the main protector of the Lebanese nation is Hezbollah.โ I think Soleimani is wrong to write-off Lebanon as a nation-state and reinvent it as an Iranian bridgehead. Having known Lebanon for more than half a century, I can tell him that there is such a thing as โLebanese-nessโ that transcends sectarian and political divides. The Lebanese look to the Mediterranean and the exciting possibilities of the modern world rather than the recesses of the Iranian Plateau under the mullahs with their antediluvian ideology. As a matter of taste, Lebanese-ness is closer to the beach than to the bunker.
Lebanonโs crisis is caused by Iran Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/October 25/2019 The Lebanese scene has always been part of the great regional playing field, and it has been used by the regionโs powers. It has become almost monopolized by Iran through its proxy Hezbollah and forces loyal to the Syrian regime. The US, too, has increased its activity in Lebanon with the imposition of sanctions on Iran. The Americans realized that they have to stifle the routes through which Tehran evades sanctions, and its most prominent route is Lebanon. Washington has stepped up its crackdown on Hezbollahโs financial resources, tracing them to Latin America, Africa, Australia and elsewhere. These financial resources are derived from drug trafficking, cigarette smuggling, and even selling fake Viagra. In the past decade, Tehran has used Hezbollah and made it carry out missions beyond Lebanonโs borders. Iran has turned Hezbollah into a military battalion fighting on its behalf in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere. Tehran has also turned Lebanon into a propaganda, legal, political and financial center in its service. To do that, Hezbollah seized almost complete control of the state โ the airport, ports, border crossings, telephone networks, security and service ministries. This is why the US made Lebanon the target of its scrutiny and sanctions, and there might be further pressure. Lebanon, without an armed Hezbollah that has allegiance to Iran, could be the most prosperous country in the region. But Lebanon, as it is today, is destined to become worse off. The anger we see on the streets in Lebanon is partly the result of Hezbollahโs insistence on turning the country into a confrontation line with the West. The consequences are bad and might get worse. Hezbollah must realize that when it takes the country hostage to the desires of Iranโs supreme leader, it risks a confrontation with all the Lebanese people, including Shiites, their latest victims. As we have seen, the voices that have risen up publicly against Hezbollah are also Shiite. Confrontations against it have taken place in its areas of influence, such as Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel and elsewhere. Lebanon, without an armed Hezbollah that has allegiance to Iran, could be the most prosperous country in the region. But Lebanon, as it is today, is destined to become worse off. It is true that Hezbollah is not the only local player, and has partners that must also share the blame. The current uprising has raised a slogan rejecting all the leaders in government, and calling for reform of the failing political system because it allows political powers to divide influence and interests at the expense of Lebanon and its people.It may not seem understandable to the Lebanese public that they are paying the price for Hezbollahโs intrusion in the region and its threats against Western interests. But this is the reality that has partly caused the economy to deteriorate, and has placed the government between the hammer of the West and the anvil of Hezbollah. Unless the group curtails its services to Iran, it will suffer and make Lebanon and its people suffer more than before. *Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed
Lebanonโs revolution: I am terrified of the morning after Ayah Bdier/Annahar/October 25, 2019 If we donโt seize this moment to make a radical change, it will be the final blow. Our hearts cannot handle such an epic emotional failure. No one saw this coming. And what we saw has been awe inspiring. I saw some of our compatriots face fear and violence and beatings against thugs because they felt the cause was much bigger than them. I saw some of the most cynical people I know wake up with resolve and drive hours to go to the protests. I saw some of the most disengaged of my expat friends glued to their phones and laptops overseas so they wouldnโt miss a beat. But my heart is also beating fast because I am terrified. I am terrified of the morning after. What now? Where do we put our energy? Who do we endorse? Where do we vote? Where do we sign? What organization do we give money to? What is our plan? What is our strategy to get our demands? Who is going to implement it? What happens when the government resigns? Who takes over? Who is the face of this revolution? Who are our next leaders? I am terrified that this protest will fizzle. I am afraid that people have let some steam out, got a dose of adrenaline from the camaraderie and will now go back to their lives the morning after. Most of all I am terrified that if we donโt seize this moment to make a radical change, it will be the final blow. Our hearts cannot handle such an epic emotional failure. For this revolution, we dug deep into our hearts to find hope after decades of apathy. We dug deep, very deep, and put our hearts on the line. We said that we were willing to forego decades of pain, of frustration, of violence, of fear, of being far from each other, of being ashamed of our country, of being powerless to change. We all entered into a contract that this was worth it, this was going to work. If it doesnโt work, we are finished. The emotional carnage will be too large. As far as I know no party has emerged with enough organization and clout to withstand the warlords we are fighting. There are lists of demands, but no faces to them. There are no inspiring speeches to rally to. There are no meetings to go to. There are no action plans to implement. Today I saw multiple civic organizations cursing at each other, factions emerging, or re-emerging. In Martyr square there were multiple stages competing with each other for air space. I went from one to the other to figure out who was calling on people to join future meetings, I couldnโt find them. We all agree on the demands: 1- Current government resigns 2- Temporary government takes control with outsized influence 3- New elections take place Iโm in. What next? I didnโt see debates to take part in, places to sign up, candidates to talk to, tasks to take on. I am told strategic conversations are happening, where are they? How do we join them? Some want to stay on the streets, chanting, putting pressure on the government, keeping streets closed. We need that. Others want to organize, talk politics, identify candidates. Where do we do that? We are up against thugs, criminals, parties with decades of experience organizing. We are many, yes, and we are loud, but we need to be ruthless. We need to be cunning, we need to rise up fast and build a machine. Multiple independent organizations are collaborating: this is fantastic. Letโs create an umbrella organization and go. This is not the time for factions or competition. We donโt need to agree on everything. This is the time for us to quickly form an umbrella opposition group. One website, one social media account, one email list, one meeting place. And letโs blast it from the rooftops. We need a leader, quick. But perfect is the enemy of good. They have to be clean, they have to be unaffiliated, they have to be charismatic and they have to be ruthless. But they donโt have to be perfect. They donโt have to be our leader for the long term, they just need to be able to pull us together for this phase. If you are organizing, come out of the shadows. Do it in public. Call for a speech at a certain time. Point us to a website. Give us future dates to meet. Videos of belly dancers in downtown are going viral within minutes, give us a plan, we will make it viral within seconds. On Thursday night, we launched DaleelThawra.com, a directory that consolidates all initiatives, websites, donations and campaigns both locally and internationally. Please let us know what you think and help make it better. Daleelalthawra@gmail.com instagram: @daleelthawra twitter @daleelthawra *Lebanese-Canadian Ayah Bdier is the founder and CEO of @littleBits, a successful technology company based in NYC, @TEDFellow, alum @medialab, @eyebeamnyc, @CreativeCommons. A graduate of AUB, Bdier also holds a MS from the Media Lab, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
A Surge in Protests around the World in October Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 25/2019 The past weeks have seen a wave of often unprecedented protest movements erupt in countries around the world. Here is an overview of the main ones that started this month and others that are continuing. โ Bolivia โ โ When? Since October 21. โ Trigger? The disputed results of the October 20 presidential election which gave outgoing leader Evo Morales almost outright victory for a fourth term. โ State of play? There has been violence in several regions; a general strike was launched on October 23. โ Toll? Several people have been injured in clashes between supporters and opponents of Morales. โ Chile โ โ When? Since October 18. โ Trigger? An increase in the price of metro tickets in the capital. โ State of play? President Sebastian Pinera suspended the price hike and then announced social measures such as increased pensions and lower electricity costs. But the protests spread, including complaints about living costs and social inequality. A general strike started on October 23. โ Toll? 18 dead. โ Lebanon โ โ When? Since October 17. โ Trigger? A proposed tax on calls made through messaging apps. โ State of play? The government of Saad Hariri quickly axed the measure and announced emergency economic reforms. But the protests have widened to demand the removal of the entire political class. โ Toll? Peaceful protests, marked by several clashes, have paralyzed the country and dozens of people have been injured while one person has been killed in an incident related to a blocked road. โ Guinea โ โ When? Since October 7. โ Trigger? Accusations that President Alpha Conde is trying to circumvent a bar on a third term in office. โ State of play? Thousands of people have joined a string of demonstrations organized by an alliance of opposition groups, the FNDC. โ Toll? Around 10 protesters killed. โ Ecuador โ โ When? From October 1 to 13. โ Trigger? The scrapping of fuel subsidies. โ State of play? After 12 days of protests, President Lenin Moreno and the indigenous movement, which has spearheaded the demonstrations, reached an agreement under which the government reinstated fuel subsidies. Toll? Eight killed and 1,340 injured. โ Iraq โ When? Since October 1. โ Trigger? Spontaneous calls on social media to protest corruption, unemployment and poor public services. โ State of play? After a week of protests that quickly escalated into clashes with security forces, the government announced reforms. Protesters continue to demand an end to corruption and unemployment, and an overhaul of the political system. On October 25 the protests resumed, with a new upsurge of violence, fanned by Shiite political leader Moqtada Sadr. โ Toll? More than 150 dead the first week. At least 12 on Friday alone. โ Ongoing movements โ Other protest movements, which started earlier this year, are continuing: โ In Hong Kong, a protest movement started on June 9 in response to a draft government bill that would allow extradition to mainland China. After months of regular protests, including some of the worst violence the former British colony has known, the extradition bill was withdrawn in September. But the campaign had already broadened to demand greater democratic freedoms. Initially peaceful, the protests have degenerated into violent clashes between protesters and security forces. Numerous pro-democracy activists have been attacked by supporters of mainland China. On October 1 police shot a protestor with a live bullet but he survived. โ In Algeria, the decision by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to run for a fifth term sparked a wave of peaceful demonstrations on February 22. Bouteflika resigned in April but protesters continue to demand an overhaul of the entire political establishment. The opposition rejects elections under the current establishment, called for December 12.
Titles Of The LCCC English News Bulletin Bible Quotations For today Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related Newsย Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports And News Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
Your rich people, weep and wail for the miseries that are coming to you
Letter of James 05/01-06/:โCome now, you rich people, weep and wail for the miseries that are coming to you. Your riches have rotted, and your clothes are moth-eaten. Your gold and silver have rusted, and their rust will be evidence against you, and it will eat your flesh like fire. You have laid up treasure for the last days. Listen! The wages of the labourers who mowed your fields, which you kept back by fraud, cry out, and the cries of the harvesters have reached the ears of the Lord of hosts. You have lived on the earth in luxury and in pleasure; you have fattened your hearts on a day of slaughter. You have condemned and murdered the righteous one, who does not resist you.โ
He will be mocked and insulted and spat upon. After they have flogged him, they will kill him, and on the third day he will rise again
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 18/31-34/:โJesus took the twelve aside and said to them, โSee, we are going up to Jerusalem, and everything that is written about the Son of Man by the prophets will be accomplished. For he will be handed over to the Gentiles; and he will be mocked and insulted and spat upon. After they have flogged him, they will kill him, and on the third day he will rise again.โBut they understood nothing about all these things; in fact, what he said was hidden from them, and they did not grasp what was said.โ
I lived in the United States for more than twenty years. When I returned to Lebanon, there was a โdisputeโ (within the extended family) which had been unresolved for more than twenty years. I did not cause that dispute, I was not a party to it, and it was not my responsibility to solve it. Despite these facts, I took the initiative and resolved it in less than two months. In my humble opinion, this is an example of what a responsible leader would do.
Similarly, there are many problems in Lebanon which had been lingering for decades. Yet, no one from the three presidents assumed responsibility for any of them and resolved them. To the contrary, the language spoken was always one of blame. Each side blaming some unknown for prohibiting it from doing what they consider to be โreform.โ
The speeches made by government officials and the comments made by supporters of the ruling political parties reveal a huge gap between what they proclaim and the actual meaningful solutions. Even if one wishes to consider the three presidents as the most decent and honorable individuals, the fact remains that they are not equipped to save the country. They simply do not know how, even if they want to.
A dispute on a family level was not resolved because the mentality of the individuals involved was not compatible to coming up with solutions โ not necessarily because they were bad people. Similarly, the mentality of the ruling class is not โcompatibleโ to elevate the country to a better status.
True leaders make changes from the first day on which they assume responsibility. Their entire being reflects the desire to make a difference, to improve the wellbeing of their people and those whom they love.
Many people now ask: What is the solution to the situation in Lebanon? How do the Lebanese cross the bridge from ineffective leadership to an effective one?
The answer does exist, but it has to be implemented by those who have the solution (and not to write about the solutions for others to implement them). We cannot present solutions to three presidents who have themselves declared by words and by inaction that they could not do anything throughout their term in office. Whomever they wish to blame is of no significance. What is significant is that they failed.
The three presidents face the following options:
(1) Refuse to acknowledge their failure;
(2) Refuse to acknowledge their inability to solve any of the countryโs problems (with their history being an example, since everything in the country had been consistently deteriorating while they watched and did nothing meaningful); or
(3) Acknowledge their failure and inability and take the necessary measures to replace themselves with those who are willing to assume responsibility and solve existing problems.
The solution for Lebanon today is for the existing political class to surrender to reality โ that they have failed and that they do not know how to establish a nation and protect its people. If they did, the people would not be demonstrating against them.
The so-called โsolutionsโ presented by present politicians are of elementary level. They do not resolve the root cause of the problems and do not rise to the level of what the current situation demands.
There is one thing that the three presidents need to do and to do it well โ and that is to replace themselves in a peaceful and constructive way. If they do so correctly, then they would be truly patriotic.
The three presidents have to agree on appointing one individual with full power to decide and implement decisions related to all economic and social aspects which caused the people to overwhelmingly go to the streets.
That person would assume full responsibility for one year, six months, four months, or even two weeks โ whatever the three presidents decide.
What can a person do in two weeks or four months? This time-frame is enough to at least introduce the principles and measures that would put the country on the right path. Try me and watch. If I fail, hang me.
For some, it is very difficult or impossible to fly in the sky. But for an eagle, that is normal. Those who think that nothing meaningful can be done in two weeks or four months, they think so because they are not eagles.
Lebanon Battles to Be Born at Last ุฑูุฌุฑ ููููู: ูููููุฑู ุชูู ุฒ: ูุฃุฎูุฑุงู ุตุฑุงุน ูุจูุงู ููููุฏ ู ู ุฌุฏูุฏ
Roger Cohen/The New York Times/October 26/2019
The Middle East could use a decent country. One million Lebanese protesters are demanding one. Hezbollah has other ideas.
BEIRUT โ Lebanon was ahead of the game on civil war and now is last to the Arab Spring, or at least an Arab something โ a vast, united exhalation of disgust at the thievery, corruption and nepotism that has caused widespread misery across this wounded land.
There they are, the people, citizens undifferentiated, with their suddenly discovered Lebanese flags, outside the Central Bank, demanding that its longtime governor, Riad Salameh, quit, hand himself over to judicial authorities, explain his sonโs opulent wedding in Cannes this year, and provide details of money stolen by the government.
โAll of them means all of them,โ is the revolutionโs cry โ out with Salameh, and the Maronite Christian president, Michel Aoun, and the Sunni prime minister, Saad Hariri, and the Shia speaker, Nabih Berri, and even Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the militant group and political party that is a member of the coalition government.
Nasrallah? Taboos are falling at a giddying pace. Perhaps one million people have taken to the streets, a quarter of the Lebanese population. In this most sectarian of countries everyone stands together, for now.
The unity is fragile. Lebanon, through Hezbollah, is Iranโs proxy on the border of Israel. Hezbollah fought to save Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It wonโt let its Lebanese power base go lightly. Already, Nasrallah has started blaming outside forces for the unrest and warned of chaos.
But young Lebanese are tired of being other peopleโs proxies. They are claiming their own country; hence those flags. Beirut is in lockdown. Banks are closed, businesses shuttered. A speech by Aoun, a week into the protests, was a flop. โRegime change, young fellows, does not take place in the streets,โ he declared โ and was mocked. The crowds believe thatโs precisely where transformation occurs.
What else is new? A leaderless popular movement, propelled by social media, determined โ with sudden unity โ to overturn the status quo and render justice to the people. From Turkey to Chile, from France to Egypt, from Brazil to Libya, such upsurges of fury and idealism have marked the past decade, only to fail or fade more often than not. To be leaderless is beautiful. It is not necessarily effective.
But this is Lebanon, with its one feeble government, two armies (the stateโs and Hezbollahโs), two currencies, 18 officially recognized religious groups, and one thousand conspiracy theories. The current situation cannot hold for long.
The state is weak, the economy on the verge of collapse, and an awakened citizenry unready for compromise with their leaders, whose demands for fealty have spread division and woes. Enough of war and warlords and the sectarian politics of fear! Lebanon is seeking a fresh start.
โThis is the first time in our history that Christians, Druze, Sunni and Shia and everyone get together like this,โ Rudy Marroum told me, standing outside the Central Bank. โItโs make or break, a last chance for Lebanon.
The Lebanese and Palestinians helped build Dubai. They could not build their own countries, so they had to go and build other countries to feed their children.โ
Mona Massalkhi stood nearby with her 20-year-old daughter, Leila, an occupational therapist. โWe are not a poor country,โ Massalkhi said. โWe are just governed by thieves. I will stay in the street as long as it takes for the sake of my daughter, who has no future without change.โ
I heard elaborate theories โ never in short supply in Lebanon โ about how the economy is dollarized in order to enslave the country to American interests, and how Salameh, the Central Bank governor for the past 26 years, has facilitated the offshore transfers of vast sums by government ministers, their families and cronies.
The economy, starved of capital inflows, is in free fall, with no growth, high unemployment and huge pressure on the Lebanese pound. Banks have not opened for a week for fear of a panic-driven stampede for dollars.
Garbage piles up. Electricity is intermittent. Sewage spills into the sea. โThe only thing we recycle here is politicians,โ Paula Yacoubian, an independent member of parliament, told me. The gold necklace she was wearing formed the Arabic word for โEnough!โ
Via a back entrance to the Central Bank, across a garage, past a black Audi and BMW, I made my way, through elaborate security, to Salamehโs office. Only a skeleton staff is working. The governor wore a great suit and tie in a dimly lit office redolent of cigars. He was clearly under strain but also indignant about the accusations against him.
โToday, everybody can say whatever via social media,โ Salameh, who came to this job from Merrill Lynch, told me. โI have read various so-called biographies of myself, and am discovering I did not know who I was before.โ He smiled a wan smile. โMy contribution over the years has been to try to hold Lebanon stable.โ
Itโs not easy, he said, when you have a tiny dollarized economy, where 73.5 percent of deposits are in foreign currency, budget deficits are high, and protecting the currency is a daily battle.
โI donโt know if the government is very corrupt,โ he continued, โbut I can say I worked very hard to put in place a special investigation commission to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, and I never compromised on this. Those who suffered from my decisions are now trying to drag me down with accusations of corruption.โ
The Central Bank, he insisted, had no control over the private bank accounts of government members. โThe Central Bank does not handle private accounts. I do not have this privilege. The banks should know their clients and report to us if they see something suspicious.โ
As for the supposedly lavish Cannes wedding, the focus of much ire, Salameh said it took place overseas because his son, a Christian, wed a Muslim and it was easier to have a civil marriage in France. โIt was just a normal dinner,โ he said.
Salameh was clearly worried. He said he had no idea how the confrontation would end. Small and medium-size enterprises make up most of the Lebanese economy, and for now they have no income, with the country paralyzed. โThe solution is not a violent one,โ he told me. โYou need to regenerate confidence.โ
I asked if he would quit. โIf it serves the country, but I think it may have the opposite effect, in terms of the confidence of markets.โ He paused. โLook, if I am the problem, you can consider it solved. But mobilizing by identifying capital and money as the enemy is not the way forward. We need to build the state and build an economy that has growth.โ
Thirty-six years ago I was in Lebanon covering the civil war for The Wall Street Journal. I recall visiting the Central Bank governor then, making my way through rubble and gunfire. Everything is relative. Beirut is not in flames, not yet at least.
In a way, the battle today sees a generation that did not live that war struggling to overcome its legacy at last. It would be a miracle if they succeed, but some new Lebanon has flickered to life these past nine days and will not quickly be snuffed out.
*Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
*Roger Cohen has been a columnist for The Times since 2009. His columns appear Wednesday and Saturday. He joined The Times in 1990, and has served as a foreign correspondent and foreign editor. @NYTimesCohen
Titles Of The LCCC English News Bulletin Bible Quotations For today Latest LCCC English Lebanese & Lebanese Related Newsย Latest LCCC English Miscellaneous Reports And News Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For October 26-27/2019 Addressing the Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
October 26-27/2019
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 26-27/2019
Anti-Govt. Protests Rage Unabated in Lebanon for 10th Day
Protesters Take to the Streets for 10th Day, Defying Hizbullah
Presidency: Aoun Did Not Reject Anti-Corruption Law
High Stakes for Army as Protests Engulf Lebanon
Police Remove Some Roadblocks as Nationwide Protests Touch 10th Day
Lebanese block roads as mass demonstrations enter 10th day
Injuries as Lebanese Military Scuffles with Protesters near Tripoli
Several Wounded in Gunfire Shots in al-Baddawi
Lebanese Police Drag Protestors, Remove Roadblocks in Beirut
Hezbollah Supporters Assault Protesters in Downtown Beirut
High Stakes for Army As Protests Enter Tenth Day
Protests Rattle the Postwar Order in Lebanon and Iraq
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on October 26-27/2019 Anti-Govt. Protests Rage Unabated in Lebanon for 10th Day Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
Protesters poured back onto streets and squares across Lebanon on Saturday, despite army efforts to unblock roads, with no end in sight to a crisis that has crippled the country for 10 days and kept banks closed. Army and security commanders met to plan ways to re-open main arteries to get traffic flowing again while โsafeguarding the safety of protestersโ, the military said in a statement. But people have closed routes with barriers, sit-ins and mass gatherings demanding the government resign. The General Security agency โ one of Lebanonโs top three security bodies โ said it has started to implement a plan to open key roads. An army spokesman told AFP that security forces would negotiate with protesters, without resorting to violence. Lebanon has been swept by days of protests against a political class accused of corruption, mismanagement of state finances and pushing the country toward an economic collapse unseen since the 1975-90 civil war. Banks, schools and many businesses have shut their doors. โWe wonโt leave the streets because this is the only card that people can pressure with,โ Yehya al-Tannir, an actor protesting at a makeshift barricade on a main bridge in the capital Beirut. โWe wonโt leave until our demands are met.โNortheast of Beirut, dozens of demonstrators formed a human chain to prevent the army from removing a dirt berm blocking a seaside road. As night fell on Saturday, the first day of the weekend, protesters flooded streets across the country amid patriotic music, Lebanese flags and protest banners. Demonstrators who had slept in tents near Martyrs Square, said they were still defiant. โWe will stay on the streets,โ said Rabih al-Zein, a 34-year-old from the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon. โThe power of the people is stronger than the power of the parties,โ he told AFP.
Near the northern city of Tripoli, the army said it fired into the air during a disturbance with protesters. Five soldiers and a number of civilians were injured, it said. Banks will stay closed until life returns to normal and will pay month-end salaries through ATMs, the Association of Banks in Lebanon has said. It has held crisis meetings in recent days amid growing fears that a rush on the banks when they reopen could deplete dwindling foreign currency deposits.
Emergency reforms The protests have continued to grip Lebanon despite the government announcing an emergency reform package this week that failed to defuse anger. It has also yet to reassure foreign donors to unlock the billions in badly needed aid they have pledged. President Michel Aoun suggested banking secrecy should be lifted from the accounts of high-ranking officials. Ministers and lawmakers affiliated with the presidentโs Free Patriotic Movement are set to lift banking secrecy from their own accounts next week, according to an FPM statement.
In recent days, loyalists of Hezbollah and the FPM have mobilized counter-demonstrations across the country, sparking scuffles with demonstrators and journalists. Lebanon has one of the worldโs highest levels of government debt as a share of economic output. The countryโs largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the mostly peaceful protests. Waving Lebanese flags rather than the partisan colors normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanonโs political leaders. โAll of them means all,โ has been a popular slogan.
In the southern coastal city of Sidon, some shops opened their doors after days of closure. โShopkeepers are opening up to see if they can get things moving. The end of the month is near, people have rents to pay,โ said protester Hoda Hafez. โBut in the end, they will all take part and come down to the (protest) square.โHezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned on Friday against a power vacuum and urged followers to stay away from the protests after they assaulted demonstrators in central Beirut.
Protesters Take to the Streets for 10th Day, Defying Hizbullah Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Demonstrators in Lebanon blocked roads and trickled into streets across the country for a tenth consecutive day Saturday, defying what they said were attempts by Hizbullah to defuse their movement. The demonstrators โ who have thronged towns and cities across Lebanon since October 17 โ are demanding the removal of the entire political class, accusing many across different parties of systematic corruption.Numbers have declined since October 20, when hundreds of thousands took over Beirut and other cities in the largest demonstrations in years, but could grow again over the weekend. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday called on his supporters to leave the streets, warning that any cabinet resignation would lead to โchaos and collapseโ of the economy. He also said that the protesters were being manipulated by โforeign powersโ who wanted to leverage the unrest, shortly after his supporters clashed with demonstrators in Beirut. His statement sowed divisions among Hizbullah supporters, some of whom were still protesting on Saturday morning. Hassan Koteiche, 27, from a Hizbullah stronghold in Beirut, said he agreed with most of Nasrallahโs โexcellentโ speech, but had some reservations. โThis does not mean we are against his discourse but there is a divergence in opinion,โ he told AFP. โThe main thing I disagree with is his belief that if the government or parliament falls then we would have no alternative,โ he added. โThat is not true. We have alternatives. We have noble and uncorrupt people,โ who can govern.
โWe will stayโ
Main roads remained closed across the country on Saturday morning, as the army tried to reopen key routes. Northeast of Beirut, dozens of demonstrators formed a human chain to prevent the army from removing a dirt berm blocking a sea-side road. In central Beirut, they sat cross-legged on a key artery that connects the capital to its suburbs and surrounding regions but the army later cleared them and opened the road. Nearby, droves of volunteers swept streets and collected rubbish after protests went late into the night, with people dancing on the street and in and abandoned former movie theatre. Demonstrators who had slept in tents near Martyrs Square, said they were still defiant on the tenth day of their protest movement, despite attempts by Hizbullah to rattle protesters. โWe will stay on the streets,โ said Rabih al-Zein, a 34-year-old from the Shiite-stronghold of Tyre, which saw unprecedented demonstrations over the past week. โThe power of the people is stronger than the power of the parties,โ he told AFP in central Beirut, adding that Hizbullah supporters would not keep them from demonstrating.ย Lebanonโs largely sectarian political parties have been wrong-footed by the cross-communal nature of the largely peaceful protests. Waving Lebanese flags rather than the partisan colours normally paraded at demonstrations, protesters have been demanding the resignation of all of Lebanonโs political leaders.
โAll of them means all,โ has been a popular slogan.
โ Counter-demonstrations โ
In recent days, loyalists of Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) โ a Christian party founded by President Michel Aoun โ mobilised counter-demonstrations across the country, sparking scuffles with demonstrators and journalists. The Iran-backed Hizbullah, considered a terrorist organisation by Israel and the United States, is the only movement not to have disarmed after Lebanonโs 15-year civil.Hundreds of its supporters gathered in the groupโs strongholds in Beirutโs southern suburbs and the southern cities of Nabatiyeh and Tyre on Friday after Nasrallahโs speech, brandishing party flags. In central Beirut, they clashed with protesters, prompting riot police to intervene to break up the fight. In Nabatiyeh on Saturday, dozens of anti-government demonstrators returned to the streets, with a protester saying he was counting on the army and security forces to protect them from party loyalists. In a suburb north of Beirut, dozens of FPM loyalists staged a counter demonstration to express their support for the embattled president. Lebanon endured a devastating civil war that ended in 1990 and many of its current political leaders are former commanders of wartime militias, most of them recruited on sectarian lines. Persistent deadlock between them has stymied efforts to tackle the deteriorating economy, while the eight-year war in neighbouring Syria has compounded the crisis. More than a quarter of Lebanonโs population lives in poverty, the World Bank says.
Presidency: Aoun Did Not Reject Anti-Corruption Law Naharnet/October 26/2019
The Lebanese presidency media office on Saturday said in a statement that President Michel Aoun did not reject an anti-corruption law and that he referred it to the Parliament to introduce some โamendments.โ
โSocial media have circulated inaccurate information about President Aoun and that he rejected an anti-corruption law in the public sector and the establishment of the National Anti-Corruption Commission to the Parliament,โ said the Presidency on Twitter. โPresident Michel Aoun did not reject the law but he referred it to the Parliament for amendments,โ it added.
High Stakes for Army as Protests Engulf Lebanon Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Itโs one of the iconic images of Lebanonโs protests: the tears of a soldier torn between his duty and a loving crowd โ the same dilemma now facing the national army. An unprecedented, cross-sectarian protest movement demanding the removal of an entrenched political elite has paralysed the country since October 17, leaving the army with a difficult task. When demonstrators this week blocked roads to press their demands, soldiers were deployed to reopen them. What could have been a tense sequence ended with protesters singing the national anthem, praising the soldiers and handing them flowers. โThere have been repeated attempts by the political establishmentโฆ to get the military to clear the street,โ said Aram Nerguizian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. โThe Lebanese Armed Forces have resisted these attempts,โ said Nerguizian. Fadi Daoud, a retired army general, said the armed forces had to juggle what have become โtwo contradictory dutiesโ โ protecting the peopleโs freedoms and executing the orders of the political establishment. Its task has been further complicated by the emergence of counter-demonstrations by party loyalists looking to confront the protesters lambasting their leaders. The Lebanese army was in tatters at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, an empty shell in a country that was under Syrian occupation until 2005. Meanwhile, the Iranian-backed Hizbullah grew to outgun the army, which took years to restore its credibility but never lost its popularity.
โOne of usโ
โThe Lebanese military is one of the very few institutions that is both close to being representative of the public, demographically, and at the same time behaving in a way over time that is broadly credible,โ Nerguizian said. With around 80,000 personnel, the army is seen as a symbol of national unity that has weathered sectarian divisions and tensions over the years. According to Daoud, the unprecedented protests that have gripped the country could be an opportunity for the army to further increase the legitimacy it needs โto build up its strength and viability.โ It has received billions of dollars from the West in recent years but its claim to being the countryโs protector continues to be rivalled by Hizbullah, the only group that did not disarm after the civil war. Observers say the unprecedented nationwide nature of the protest movement is likely to create bridges between the demonstrators and the army. In 2005, which was the last time that many people took to the streets, the army was caught between the rival pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps. Today, political leaders have diverging positions โbut the street is oneโ, said Daoud, who served in the military from 1983 to 2019.
The images of the soldier who was moved to tears by the protests and those of another embracing his father who was among the demonstrators touched the heart of the Lebanese public. โHeโs crying because heโs one of us, he feels our pain and we feel his,โ said Ali, a 34-year-old among the thousands occupying the main square in Beirut every day. Graffiti reading โthe army is a red lineโ has started appearing on the walls of Beirut, another sign of its popularity among the protesters. With the protesters calling for the wholesale dismissal of the political class without offering a clear alternative, some have argued the army could step in. Pictures of the commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, have started appearing on social media with the slogan: โSave us!โ
Police Remove Some Roadblocks as Nationwide Protests Touch 10th Day
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Lebanonโs army on Saturday removed roadblocks set up by protesters in at least one critical juncture linking Beirut to the suburbs and the countryโs east amid a nationwide wave of protests, including a campaign of civil disobedience.
The protesters had set up several roadblocks around Beirut and on major roads to enforce their calls for the government to step down. The protests, now in their tenth day, have paralyzed the country, which already faces a major economic crisis. But the unprecedented demonstrations have also brought together Lebanese from all sects and political affiliation, uniting them in a common demand that long-serving politicians, accused of corruption and mismanagement, step down. On Saturday, Lebanese army removed chairs and tents set up in the middle of the intersection that links Beirut to the presidential palace, the mountain overlooking the city, the east and suburbs of Beirut. The protesters did not resist but one broke into tears, telling the local LBC television station that he was disappointed the army had to make them remove the roadblocks. The military had warned that blocking roads was in violation of the law. Other roadblocks have continued. In one location on the coastal highway to the south, the residents blocked the road as security forces attempted to remove a roadblock. In central Beirut, two women and two men were manning a roadblock that separated the eastern and western sector of the Lebanese capital. They said they have been at the roadblock for 10 days and have no plan to dismantle it but added that they would not fight the army. They let through an ambulance and a motorcycle. โThis is an uprising of a people who have been suffering for the last 30 years and can no longer tolerate their lies, theft and hypocrisy,โ said 29-year-old Rima, who was manning the roadblock, referring to the government. โWe are protesting. We are not vandalizing or violent.โ Rima declined to give her last name, worried about her safety.
Lebanese block roads as mass demonstrations enter 10th day Associated Press/October 26/2019
The demonstrations have brought together Lebanese from various religious sects and political affiliations, with many protesters directing their anger at their own representatives. Chanting โall means all,โ the protesters have simultaneously indicted the entire political system and tried to head off
BEIRUT:Lebanese anti-government protesters stepped up their efforts to block roads in and around the capital Beirut on Saturday, lying in the streets and chanting โpeaceful, peacefulโ as security forces struggled to drag them out of the way.
The dispersals were largely peaceful, but clashes broke out near the northern city of Tripoli, injuring a number of people. The campaign of civil disobedience came on the 10th day of nationwide anti-government protests, the largest Lebanon has seen in years. โThis is an uprising of a people who have been suffering for the last 30 years and can no longer tolerate their lies, theft and hypocrisy,โ said Rima, a 29-year-old who was manning one of the roadblocks in central Beirut, allowing in ambulances and motorcyclists. She declined to give her full name for security reasons.
The rallies have paralyzed a country already grappling with a severe fiscal crisis that demonstrators blame on political elites who have ruled since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. Banks, universities and schools have been closed since last week.
Saturdayโs attempts by demonstrators to step up resistance appeared to be in defiance of calls to open the roads โ the protestersโ main pressure point on the government to respond to demands for major changes.
The demonstrations were sparked by proposals for new taxes, including one on WhatsApp voice calls and messaging services that came on the heels of recently passed austerity measures. They soon escalated into a call for the overthrow of the post-civil war political establishment, seen by many as corrupt and incompetent. Now, some protesters are calling for early parliamentary elections and a new, smaller Cabinet and have rejected economic reforms proposed by the current prime minister. โThis is not a protest. This is a revolution,โ said George, a civil engineer who also declined to give his last name for security reasons. In Beirut, there was some pushing, shoving and screaming as riot police tried to drag protesters away by the arms and legs. There were no reports of arrests or injuries. On one road, an armored personnel carrier came within several meters (yards) of a group of protesters lying in the road before turning back.
Near Tripoli in northern Lebanon, the army said it intervened after a group of people began fighting with protesters who had blocked a road. It said five soldiers were wounded by stones and fire bombs, and that the soldiers responded by shooting in the air and firing rubber bullets, wounding โa numberโ of people. The army didnโt elaborate. Videos posted online showed large numbers of people running through the streets, some hurt, as soldiers chased them while gunfire can be heard. It was a rare case of the army interfering to remove the road blocks.
On one major thoroughfare in downtown Beirut, security forces and protesters engaged in a cat and mouse game. After security forces dragged the protesters off the asphalt, the demonstrators returned to present them with flowers. Then they sat in the road, blocking a main route between the cityโs east and west.
โThe people want to bring down the regime,โ the protesters chanted, reprising the main slogan of the Arab Spring uprisings that swept the Middle East in 2011. โWe are not bandits,โ one man cried as demonstrators were being dragged away. โWe have rights and are asking for them.โ
On the coastal highway north of Beirut, a large crowd of residents sat on the ground as others stood in a line as a military bulldozer approached, forcing it to turn back. To the south, Lebanese soldiers removed chairs and tents set up in the middle of an intersection linking Beirut to the presidential palace on a hill overlooking the city.
In each incident security forces appeared reluctant to forcibly confront the protesters. But Hezbollahโs criticism of the demonstrations raised concerns about a possible backlash. The demonstrations have brought together Lebanese from various religious sects and political affiliations, with many protesters directing their anger at their own representatives. Chanting โall means all,โ the protesters have simultaneously indicted the entire political system and tried to head off any sectarianism. On Friday, the military warned that blocking roads was a violation of the law. The leader of the Hezbollah, the most powerful armed force in the country, called on the protesters to open the roads and ordered his supporters to leave the rallies after they brawled with rival protesters. In a speech Friday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah cast doubt on the spontaneous nature of the protests, saying foreign powers and rival political groups were exploiting the rallies to go after his group, which is closely allied with Iran. Shortly before he spoke, Hezbollah supporters fought with protesters who had criticized Nasrallah in the epicenter of the protests in central Beirut. Amnesty International, meanwhile, said that blocking the roads a way for the protesters to make their voices heard and called on authorities to protect the rallies against violence from political opponents.Later on Saturday, in one of the main demonstrations in Beirut, protesters chanted: โWe arenโt afraid of the sectarian leaders.โ
Injuries as Lebanese Military Scuffles with Protesters near Tripoli Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
The Lebanese army said it fired gunshots into the air after a clash at a protest road-block near the northern city of Tripoli on Saturday, injuring several people. The army said it had intervened to break up a skirmish between protesters and people trying to drive their cars on the road. Stones and fireworks were thrown at soldiers, injuring five of them, it said in a statement.After using tear gas, the army said it then fired into the air and also used rubber bullets, injuring several people. A witness said soldiers shot into the air after trying to re-open a road out of Tripoli that some protesters had been blocking, near the Beddawi Palestinian refugee camp. LBCI television said eight people were wounded, two were in critical condition. As part of the tenth day of unprecedented protests demanding the government resign, people have closed routes across Lebanon with makeshift barriers and sit-ins for days. Reuters TV footage showed soldiers and young men throwing stones at each other. The Lebanese Red Cross said on Twitter that three people were injured there and vehicles were being sent to the scene. The army said it brought reinforcements and the situation had quieted down. Television footage showed the protesters eventually embracing the officers, putting an end to the tensions.Prime Minister Saad Haririโs office said he has asked the armyโs commander to investigate the incident.
Several Wounded in Gunfire Shots in al-Baddawi Naharnet/October 26/2019
Several individuals were wounded in Tripoliโs al-Biddawi when gunshots were fired during the militaryโs attempt to reopen the road blocked by protesters. The Lebanese army forces reportedly fired gunshots into the air to disperse the protesters. It was unclear who fired the gunshots but video footage circulating on social media showed a state of chaos and people running around, some with blood on their clothes. An ambulance was seen taking the wounded to the hospital. Earlier the army had asked residents of the area to โstay inside their houses until the tensions subside.โThe protesters said the army troops had shot at them after firing tear gas.
Lebanese Police Drag Protestors, Remove Roadblocks in Beirut Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
Lebanese security forces pushed and dragged away protesters who refused to move from roadblocks in central Beirut on Saturday, to reopen roads closed during a campaign of civil disobedience. The protesters had set up several roadblocks around Beirut and on major highways to enforce their calls for the government to step down amid nationwide protests, now in their tenth day. When the riot police moved in to clear the roadblocks on the ring road that links eastern and western Beirut, many protesters sat or lay down on the asphalt in defiance. Some protesters chanted: โThe people want to bring down the regime.โโWe are no bandits,โ cried one man. โWe have rights and are asking for them.โ
Pushing and shoving, the security forces successfully opened the road and traffic flowed through. In another part of Lebanon, the army removed a roadblock without incident. But on the coastal highway to the north, a large crowd of residents sat on the ground and others stood in one line, blocking the militaryโs efforts to remove the roadblocks with a bulldozer. The military retreated. The military warned that blocking roads was in violation of the law. The head of Lebanonโs powerful militant Hezbollah group, Hassan Nasrallah, called on protesters to open the roads in a speech Friday.
The protests have paralyzed the country, which already faces a major economic crisis. Banks, universities and schools have been closed since last week.
But the unprecedented demonstrations have also brought together Lebanese from all sects and political affiliation, uniting them in a common demand that long-serving politicians, accused of corruption and mismanagement, step down. Squares in Beirut and other cities have filled up in a spontaneous expression of anger at the countryโs political elite. A common chant, โAll means all,โ has demanded all incumbent officials step down. Nasrallah ordered his supporters to leave the protests on Friday after they clashed with anti-government protesters who criticized him. The Hezbollah leader tried to cast doubt on the spontaneity of the protests, saying that foreign powers and rivals are trying to exploit the rallies for political gains against his group. Just before the security forces moved in on Saturday, two women and two men were manning the roadblock on the ring road. They said they have been at the roadblock for 10 days and have no plan to dismantle it but added that they would not fight the army. They let through an ambulance and a motorcycle. โThis is an uprising of a people who have been suffering for the last 30 years and can no longer tolerate their lies, theft and hypocrisy,โ said 29-year-old Rima, who was manning the roadblock, referring to the government. โWe are protesting. We are not vandalizing or violent.โ Rima declined to give her last name, worried about her safety.
To the south, Lebanese soldiers removed chairs and tents set up in the middle of the intersection that links Beirut to the presidential palace, the mountain overlooking the city, the east and suburbs of Beirut. The protesters did not resist but one broke into tears, telling the local LBC television station that he was disappointed the army had to force them to remove the roadblocks. Amnesty International has said that blocking the roads was part of the protestersโ efforts to make their voice heard, and called on authorities to protect the rallies against violence from political opponents.
The right of peaceful protesters to demonstrate on and block public roads has consistently been upheld by international human rights bodies which view urban spaces as a legitimate space for protest. The UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and Association has stated that โthe free flow of traffic should not automatically take precedence over freedom of peaceful assembly.โAmnesty explained that restrictions can only be placed on the right to freedom of peaceful assembly where strictly necessary, proportionate and provided by law โ such as clearing a access road to a hospital or removing an assembly which has caused substantial disruption for a significant period of time to accommodate a pressing social need.
Hezbollah Supporters Assault Protesters in Downtown Beirut Beirut โ Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
The ninth day of protests in Beirut witnessed tension for the second consecutive day after Hezbollah supporters clashed with demonstrators who have been holding a sit-in in the capitalโs central district demanding the governmentโs resignation and an end to rampant corruption. Hezbollah supporters descended against on Friday on Riad al-Solh square near the Grand Serail to express their rejection to slogans against their leader, but they clashed with demonstrators and riot police that were deployed en masse in the area. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke shortly after his supporters clashed with protesters, calling on them to leave anti-government protests to avoid friction. Even after his televised speech ended, Nasrallahโs supporters continued their assault on protesters but riot police were finally able to remove them from Riad al-Solh square and the abutting Martyrs Square. The show of force continued when Hezbollah supporters held rallies in the partyโs stronghold in Beirutโs southern suburbs and other areas, including Tyre, Nabatiyeh, the Bekaa Valley and Hermel. During the rallies, they expressed support to Nasrallah, rejecting that demonstrators equate him with corrupt politicians. Lebanese protesters have set up tents, blocking traffic in main thoroughfares and sleeping in public squares mainly in Beirutโs Riad al-Solh and Martyrs Square to enforce a civil disobedience campaign and keep up the pressure on the government to step down. The unprecedented mass protests come amid a deepening economic crisis in Lebanon.
High Stakes for Army As Protests Enter Tenth Day Beirut- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 26 October, 2019
Itโs one of the iconic images of Lebanonโs protests: the tears of a soldier torn between his duty and a loving crowd โ the same dilemma now facing the national army. An unprecedented, cross-sectarian protest movement demanding the removal of an entrenched political elite has paralyzed the country since October 17, leaving the army with a difficult task. When demonstrators this week blocked roads to press their demands, soldiers were deployed to reopen them. What could have been a tense sequence ended with protesters singing the national anthem, praising the soldiers and handing them flowers. โThere have been repeated attempts by the political establishmentโฆ to get the military to clear the street,โ said Aram Nerguizian, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. โThe Lebanese Armed Forces have resisted these attempts,โ said Nerguizian. Fadi Daoud, a retired army general, said the armed forces had to juggle what have become โtwo contradictory dutiesโ โ protecting the peopleโs freedoms and executing the orders of the political establishment. Its task has been further complicated by the emergence of counter-demonstrations by party loyalists looking to confront the protesters lambasting their leaders. The Lebanese army was in tatters at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, an empty shell in a country that was under Syrian occupation until 2005.
โ โOne of usโ โ
โThe Lebanese military is one of the very few institutions that is both close to being representative of the public, demographically, and at the same time behaving in a way over time that is broadly credible,โ Nerguizian said. With around 80,000 personnel, the army is seen as a symbol of national unity that has weathered sectarian divisions and tensions over the years. According to Daoud, the unprecedented protests that have gripped the country could be an opportunity for the army to further increase the legitimacy it needs โto build up its strength and viability.โIt has received billions of dollars from the West in recent years but its claim to being the countryโs protector continues to be rivaled by Hezbollah, the only group that did not disarm after the civil war. Observers say the unprecedented nationwide nature of the protest movement is likely to create bridges between the demonstrators and the army. In 2005, which was the last time that many people took to the streets, the army was caught between the rival pro-Syrian and anti-Syrian camps. Today, political leaders have diverging positions โbut the street is oneโ, said Daoud, who served in the military from 1983 to 2019. The images of the soldier who was moved to tears by the protests and those of another embracing his father who was among the demonstrators touched the heart of the Lebanese public. โHeโs crying because heโs one of us, he feels our pain and we feel his,โ said Ali, a 34-year-old among the thousands occupying the main square in Beirut every day. Graffiti reading โthe army is a red lineโ has started appearing on the walls of Beirut, another sign of its popularity among the protesters. With the protesters calling for the wholesale dismissal of the political class without offering a clear alternative, some have argued the army could step in. Pictures of the commander of the armed forces, Joseph Aoun, have started appearing on social media with the slogan: โSave us!โ
Protests Rattle the Postwar Order in Lebanon and Iraq
Associated Press/Naharnet/October 26/2019
Tens of thousands of people, many of them young and unemployed men, thronged public squares and blocked main streets Friday in the capitals of Iraq and Lebanon in unprecedented, spontaneous anti-government revolts in two countries scarred by long conflicts.
Demonstrators in Iraq were beaten back by police firing live ammunition and tear gas, and officials said 30 people were killed in a fresh wave of unrest that has left 179 civilians dead this month. In Lebanon, scuffles between rival political groups broke out at a protest camp, threatening to undermine an otherwise united civil disobedience campaign now in its ninth day. The protests are directed at a postwar political system and a class of elite leaders that have kept both countries from relapsing into civil war but achieved little else. The most common rallying cry from the protesters in Iraq and Lebanon is โThieves! Thieves!โ โ a reference to officials they accuse of stealing their money and amassing wealth for decades. The leaderless uprisings are unprecedented in uniting people against political leaders from their own religious communities. But the revolutionary change they are calling for would dismantle power-sharing governments that have largely contained sectarian animosities and force out leaders who are close to Iran and its heavily armed local allies.
Their grievances are not new.
Three decades after the end of Lebanonโs civil war and 16 years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the streets of their capitals echo with the roar of private generators that keep the lights on. Tap water is undrinkable and trash goes uncollected. High unemployment forces the young to put off marriage and children. Every few years there are elections, and every time it seems like the same people win. The sectarian power-sharing arrangement that ended Lebanonโs 1975-1990 civil war distributed power and high offices among Christians, Shiites and Sunnis. It has mostly kept the peace, but has turned former warlords into a permanent political class that trades favors for votes. A planned tax on WhatsApp amid a financial crisis was the last straw. In Iraq, a similar arrangement among Shiites and minority Sunnis and Kurds has led to the same corrupt stasis, with parties haggling over ministries so they can give jobs and aid to supporters while lining their own pockets. The devastating war against the Islamic State group only exacerbated decades-old economic problems in the oil-rich country.
โThey (leaders) have eaten away at the country like cancer,โ said Abu Ali al-Majidi, 55, pointing toward the Green Zone, home to government offices and Western embassies. โThey are all corrupt thieves,โ he added, surrounded by his four sons who had come along for the protest.
In Iraq, a ferocious crackdown on protests that began Oct. 1 resulted in the deaths of 149 civilians in less than a week, most of them shot in the head and chest, along with eight security forces killed. After a three-week hiatus, the protests resumed Friday, with 30 people killed, according to the semi-official Iraq High Commission for Human Rights. In both countries, which share a history of civil strife, the potential for sustained turmoil is real. Iraq and Lebanon are considered to be firmly in Iranโs orbit, and Tehran is loath to see protracted political turbulence that threatens the status quo, fearing it may lose influence at a time when it is under heavy pressure from the U.S.The Iran-backed Hizbullah in Beirut and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Baghdad have said they want the governments in both countries to stay in power. The protests against Iraqโs Shiite-led government have spread to several, mainly Shiite-populated southern provinces. In Lebanon, demonstrations have erupted in Shiite communities, including in south Lebanon for the first time.
Signs of a backlash against Tehranโs tight grip on both countries can already be seen.
Among the protestersโ chants in Baghdad, one said: โIran out, out! Baghdad free, free!โ Protesters trying to reach the heavily fortified Green Zone were met with tear gas and live ammunition. Men in black plainclothes and masks stood in front of Iraqi soldiers, facing off with protesters and firing the tear gas. Residents said they did not know who they were, with some speculating they were Iranians. In the south, headquarters of Iran-backed militias were set on fire.
In central Beirut, Hizbullah supporters clashed with anti-government protesters. Supporters of the group rejected the protesters equating its leader with other corrupt politicians. A popular refrain in the rallies, now in their ninth day, has been: โAll means all.โ Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned in a televised speech that the protests โ although largely peaceful until now โ could lead to chaos and civil war. He said they were being hijacked by political rivals opposing the group. โWe are closing the roads, calling for toppling the system that has been ruling us for the past 30 years with oppression, suppression and terror, said Abed Doughan, a protester blocking a street in southern Beirut. After Fridayโs deadly violence in Iraq, a curfew was announced in several areas of the south. Hundreds of people were taken to hospitals, many with shortness of breath from the tear gas.
The current round of protests has been endorsed by nationalist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has a popular base of support and holds the largest number of seats in parliament. He has called on the government to resign and suspended his blocโs participation in the government until it comes up with a reform program. However, powerful Shiite militias backed by Iran have stood by the government and suggested the demonstrations were an outside โconspiracy.โ Iraqโs most senior Shiite spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, appealed for protesters and security forces to avoid violence. In his Friday sermon, he also criticized the government-appointed committee investigating the crackdown in the previous protests, saying it did not achieve its goals or uncover who was behind the violence.
As in the protests earlier this month, the protesters, organized on social media, started from the central Tahrir Square. The demonstrators carried Iraqi flags and chanted anti-government slogans, demanding jobs and better public services like water and electricity. โI want my country back, I want Iraq back,โ said Ban Soumaydai, 50, an Education Ministry employee who wore black jeans, a white T-shirt and carried an Iraqi flag with the hashtag #We want a country printed on it. Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi has struggled to deal with the protests. In an address to the nation early Friday, he promised a government reshuffle next week and pledged reforms. He told protesters they have a right to peaceful demonstrations and called on security forces to protect the protesters. Similarly, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri issued an emergency reform package few days after the protests began on Oct. 17 โ a document that has been dismissed by protesters as โempty promises.โ
Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 26-27/2019
People are not fooled: The Lebanese governmentโs reforms are not the solution/Sami Atallah/Asharq Al Awsat/October 26/2019
Lebanon Battles to Be Born at Last/Roger Cohen/The New York Times/October 26/2019
Open Letter to Aoun, Berri, and Hariri/Elie Aoun/October 26/2019
Lebanon protests rock Hezbollahโs grip on power. Thatโs cause for hope โ but also danger./Sulome Anderson/Think Site/October 27/2019
How Lebanonโs sectarian lens was broken/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 26, 2019 Lebanon must strategise and turn these peaceful protests into a win in the long run/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 26/2019
People are not fooled: The Lebanese governmentโs reforms are not the solution
Sami Atallah/Asharq Al Awsat/October 26/2019
The governmentโs decision on October 17 to increase taxes and impose a fee on WhatsApp sparked unprecedented protests across Lebanon. These are not the first protests in the country โ but this instance is different.
Firstly, the protests are spontaneous and leaderless, as people took themselves to the streets on a Thursday night. Secondly, the protests are not Beirut-centric: They are truly nationwide, including in political party strongholds usually immune to such movements. Thirdly, unlike the 2005 protests following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, those of 2011 against the sectarian system, or those of 2015 which were was triggered by the garbage crisis, this movement is primarily a socio-economic revolt triggered by tax.
Taken aback, politicians had to quickly acknowledge the grievances of an estimated one million protesters across the country. But they failed to understand how deep the discontent is. Prime Minister Saad Hariri came out with a 72-hour ultimatum to his coalition members. When it came on Monday, October 21, he announced a list of 25 policy measures to address the socio-economic crisis โ most of these measures had already been proposed in the CEDRE conference back in April 2018.
It is striking how popular pressure suddenly sped up the governmentโs ability to act. In three days and one governmental session, it passed measures and bills which far exceeded the two bills โ electricity in April 2019 and the Budget Law 2019 in July โ that took more than 35 sessions held between February and last week.
Some of these key measures would be welcome: a reduction of the deficit, a commitment to no additional taxes on the people, the adoption of a pension law, and a pledge to fight corruption. However, many of the measures seem unrealistic and fall short of peopleโs expectations.
The reforms are too little, too late, and there are several concerns.
It is unclear how the government will reduce the deficit from more than 7 percent to almost 0.6 percent of GDP in one year. The task to cut $5 billion is monumental. The governmentโs claim that it found a way in just three days to achieve this cut, after more than 30 years of chronic budget deficit and without major tax reforms, is suspicious. A roadmap for implementing the plan and putting in place a sustainable and fair public finance framework is missing.
Reducing the deficit without taxing the people reveals how arrogant and greedy the political elites have been. They have consistently taxed working people and made them disproportionately carry the tax burden while arguing that there were no other options. The government only backtracked when the unfair tax system triggered this revolt.
The governmentโs plan to fight corruption โ adopted from an existing government strategy โ is ridiculous and is merely an attempt to appease donors and suggest it is taking action.
This time, people will have none of that.
If it were serious about reforms, the government would have prepared or even adopted the draft law to make the judiciary independent. It would have also strengthened the oversight agencies including the procurement office. These are crucial elements to fight corruption but the government has been silent on them.
Tellingly, it seems even the prime minister is not convinced of his own plan. He stated that in order to avoid corruption in state contracts, capital investment from taxpayersโ money โ a key part of growth โ will be zero. To state that the foreign-funded capital investment will be free of corruption is to admit that all publicly contracted projects are already infested with corruption. If this is the case, he should be setting up an independent committee to review all these contracts.
Likewise, Hariri provided few details on how pension reforms could work or be funded, and the policy seems to be merely another attempt to appease protesters.
The prime minister also repeated one of the demonstratorsโ demands โ to give back โstolen money.โ But he clearly has neither the intention nor the means to implement a solution. How could he, when many of those who have contributed to public theft are either politicians, or have strong connections to them?
The timeline of the program is also unfeasible, considering how the Lebanese government works. All the proposed policy measures lack credibility, and they hollow out the state rather than build an effective one. There has been a deep failure in governance, and these policy measures cannot and will not be implemented without effective and sustained pressure.
There is a chance that Hariri has used the protests to pass measures which had been previously obstructed by his coalition partners to appease donors and gain access to CEDRE money.
But this is not what the country needs.
We need an effective state that works for the people, an accountable government that we can trust which listens to peopleโs needs, and a social contract where rights are protected and taxes are fairly allocated. None of this has been offered, and people are not fooled.
The protesters have made key gains. Not only have they forced the government to cancel its plans to tax working people, but they have imposed their agenda and are shaping political discourse in the country. They are breaking down the limits of possibility defined by the political elite and are drawing up their own set of rules. This is how fair, democratic, and accountable systems emerge.
*Sami Atallah is the executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies (LCPS). He leads several policy studies on subjects including political and social sectarianism, electoral behavior, and governance of the oil and gas sector. He is currently completing his PhD in Politics at New York University.
Lebanon Battles to Be Born at Last ุฑูุฌุฑ ููููู: ูููููุฑู ุชูู ุฒ: ูุฃุฎูุฑุงู ุตุฑุงุน ูุจูุงู ููููุฏ ู ู ุฌุฏูุฏ
Roger Cohen/The New York Times/October 26/2019 http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/79890/79890/
The Middle East could use a decent country. One million Lebanese protesters are demanding one. Hezbollah has other ideas.
BEIRUT โ Lebanon was ahead of the game on civil war and now is last to the Arab Spring, or at least an Arab something โ a vast, united exhalation of disgust at the thievery, corruption and nepotism that has caused widespread misery across this wounded land.
There they are, the people, citizens undifferentiated, with their suddenly discovered Lebanese flags, outside the Central Bank, demanding that its longtime governor, Riad Salameh, quit, hand himself over to judicial authorities, explain his sonโs opulent wedding in Cannes this year, and provide details of money stolen by the government.
โAll of them means all of them,โ is the revolutionโs cry โ out with Salameh, and the Maronite Christian president, Michel Aoun, and the Sunni prime minister, Saad Hariri, and the Shia speaker, Nabih Berri, and even Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the militant group and political party that is a member of the coalition government.
Nasrallah? Taboos are falling at a giddying pace. Perhaps one million people have taken to the streets, a quarter of the Lebanese population. In this most sectarian of countries everyone stands together, for now.
The unity is fragile. Lebanon, through Hezbollah, is Iranโs proxy on the border of Israel. Hezbollah fought to save Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It wonโt let its Lebanese power base go lightly. Already, Nasrallah has started blaming outside forces for the unrest and warned of chaos.
But young Lebanese are tired of being other peopleโs proxies. They are claiming their own country; hence those flags. Beirut is in lockdown. Banks are closed, businesses shuttered. A speech by Aoun, a week into the protests, was a flop. โRegime change, young fellows, does not take place in the streets,โ he declared โ and was mocked. The crowds believe thatโs precisely where transformation occurs.
What else is new? A leaderless popular movement, propelled by social media, determined โ with sudden unity โ to overturn the status quo and render justice to the people. From Turkey to Chile, from France to Egypt, from Brazil to Libya, such upsurges of fury and idealism have marked the past decade, only to fail or fade more often than not. To be leaderless is beautiful. It is not necessarily effective.
But this is Lebanon, with its one feeble government, two armies (the stateโs and Hezbollahโs), two currencies, 18 officially recognized religious groups, and one thousand conspiracy theories. The current situation cannot hold for long.
The state is weak, the economy on the verge of collapse, and an awakened citizenry unready for compromise with their leaders, whose demands for fealty have spread division and woes. Enough of war and warlords and the sectarian politics of fear! Lebanon is seeking a fresh start.
โThis is the first time in our history that Christians, Druze, Sunni and Shia and everyone get together like this,โ Rudy Marroum told me, standing outside the Central Bank. โItโs make or break, a last chance for Lebanon. The Lebanese and Palestinians helped build Dubai. They could not build their own countries, so they had to go and build other countries to feed their children.โ
Mona Massalkhi stood nearby with her 20-year-old daughter, Leila, an occupational therapist. โWe are not a poor country,โ Massalkhi said. โWe are just governed by thieves. I will stay in the street as long as it takes for the sake of my daughter, who has no future without change.โ
I heard elaborate theories โ never in short supply in Lebanon โ about how the economy is dollarized in order to enslave the country to American interests, and how Salameh, the Central Bank governor for the past 26 years, has facilitated the offshore transfers of vast sums by government ministers, their families and cronies.
The economy, starved of capital inflows, is in free fall, with no growth, high unemployment and huge pressure on the Lebanese pound. Banks have not opened for a week for fear of a panic-driven stampede for dollars.
Garbage piles up. Electricity is intermittent. Sewage spills into the sea. โThe only thing we recycle here is politicians,โ Paula Yacoubian, an independent member of parliament, told me. The gold necklace she was wearing formed the Arabic word for โEnough!โ
Via a back entrance to the Central Bank, across a garage, past a black Audi and BMW, I made my way, through elaborate security, to Salamehโs office. Only a skeleton staff is working. The governor wore a great suit and tie in a dimly lit office redolent of cigars. He was clearly under strain but also indignant about the accusations against him.
โToday, everybody can say whatever via social media,โ Salameh, who came to this job from Merrill Lynch, told me. โI have read various so-called biographies of myself, and am discovering I did not know who I was before.โ He smiled a wan smile. โMy contribution over the years has been to try to hold Lebanon stable.โ
Itโs not easy, he said, when you have a tiny dollarized economy, where 73.5 percent of deposits are in foreign currency, budget deficits are high, and protecting the currency is a daily battle.
โI donโt know if the government is very corrupt,โ he continued, โbut I can say I worked very hard to put in place a special investigation commission to combat money laundering and terrorist financing, and I never compromised on this. Those who suffered from my decisions are now trying to drag me down with accusations of corruption.โ
The Central Bank, he insisted, had no control over the private bank accounts of government members. โThe Central Bank does not handle private accounts. I do not have this privilege. The banks should know their clients and report to us if they see something suspicious.โ
As for the supposedly lavish Cannes wedding, the focus of much ire, Salameh said it took place overseas because his son, a Christian, wed a Muslim and it was easier to have a civil marriage in France. โIt was just a normal dinner,โ he said.
Salameh was clearly worried. He said he had no idea how the confrontation would end. Small and medium-size enterprises make up most of the Lebanese economy, and for now they have no income, with the country paralyzed. โThe solution is not a violent one,โ he told me. โYou need to regenerate confidence.โ
I asked if he would quit. โIf it serves the country, but I think it may have the opposite effect, in terms of the confidence of markets.โ He paused. โLook, if I am the problem, you can consider it solved. But mobilizing by identifying capital and money as the enemy is not the way forward. We need to build the state and build an economy that has growth.โ
Thirty-six years ago I was in Lebanon covering the civil war for The Wall Street Journal. I recall visiting the Central Bank governor then, making my way through rubble and gunfire. Everything is relative. Beirut is not in flames, not yet at least.
In a way, the battle today sees a generation that did not live that war struggling to overcome its legacy at last. It would be a miracle if they succeed, but some new Lebanon has flickered to life these past nine days and will not quickly be snuffed out.
*Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.
*Roger Cohen has been a columnist for The Times since 2009. His columns appear Wednesday and Saturday. He joined The Times in 1990, and has served as a foreign correspondent and foreign editor. @NYTimesCohen
Open Letter to Aoun, Berri, and Hariri
ุฅููู ุนูู: ุฑุณุงูุฉ ู ูุชูุญุฉ ุฅูู ุนูู ูุจุฑู ูุงูุญุฑูุฑู
Elie Aoun/October 26/2019 I lived in the United States for more than twenty years. When I returned to Lebanon, there was a โdisputeโ (within the extended family) which had been unresolved for more than twenty years. I did not cause that dispute, I was not a party to it, and it was not my responsibility to solve it. Despite these facts, I took the initiative and resolved it in less than two months. In my humble opinion, this is an example of what a responsible leader would do.
Similarly, there are many problems in Lebanon which had been lingering for decades. Yet, no one from the three presidents assumed responsibility for any of them and resolved them. To the contrary, the language spoken was always one of blame. Each side blaming some unknown for prohibiting it from doing what they consider to be โreform.โ
The speeches made by government officials and the comments made by supporters of the ruling political parties reveal a huge gap between what they proclaim and the actual meaningful solutions. Even if one wishes to consider the three presidents as the most decent and honorable individuals, the fact remains that they are not equipped to save the country. They simply do not know how, even if they want to.
A dispute on a family level was not resolved because the mentality of the individuals involved was not compatible to coming up with solutions โ not necessarily because they were bad people. Similarly, the mentality of the ruling class is not โcompatibleโ to elevate the country to a better status.
True leaders make changes from the first day on which they assume responsibility. Their entire being reflects the desire to make a difference, to improve the wellbeing of their people and those whom they love.
Many people now ask: What is the solution to the situation in Lebanon? How do the Lebanese cross the bridge from ineffective leadership to an effective one?
The answer does exist, but it has to be implemented by those who have the solution (and not to write about the solutions for others to implement them). We cannot present solutions to three presidents who have themselves declared by words and by inaction that they could not do anything throughout their term in office. Whomever they wish to blame is of no significance. What is significant is that they failed.
The three presidents face the following options:
(1) Refuse to acknowledge their failure;
(2) Refuse to acknowledge their inability to solve any of the countryโs problems (with their history being an example, since everything in the country had been consistently deteriorating while they watched and did nothing meaningful); or
(3) Acknowledge their failure and inability and take the necessary measures to replace themselves with those who are willing to assume responsibility and solve existing problems.
The solution for Lebanon today is for the existing political class to surrender to reality โ that they have failed and that they do not know how to establish a nation and protect its people. If they did, the people would not be demonstrating against them.
The so-called โsolutionsโ presented by present politicians are of elementary level. They do not resolve the root cause of the problems and do not rise to the level of what the current situation demands.
There is one thing that the three presidents need to do and to do it well โ and that is to replace themselves in a peaceful and constructive way. If they do so correctly, then they would be truly patriotic.
The three presidents have to agree on appointing one individual with full power to decide and implement decisions related to all economic and social aspects which caused the people to overwhelmingly go to the streets.
That person would assume full responsibility for one year, six months, four months, or even two weeks โ whatever the three presidents decide.
What can a person do in two weeks or four months? This time-frame is enough to at least introduce the principles and measures that would put the country on the right path. Try me and watch. If I fail, hang me.
For some, it is very difficult or impossible to fly in the sky. But for an eagle, that is normal. Those who think that nothing meaningful can be done in two weeks or four months, they think so because they are not eagles.
Lebanon protests rock Hezbollahโs grip on power. Thatโs cause for hope โ but also danger. Sulome Anderson/Think Site/October 27/2019
I spoke to the militant groupโs fighters. Their leadership is facing an existential crisis, which the U.S. can benefit from if it acts prudently.
On Wednesday, I spoke with the leader of a Hezbollah tank battalion over the phone. It sounded particularly chaotic in Dahieh, a Hezbollah-controlled neighborhood in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Other parts of the city have been racked by massive demonstrations sweeping Lebanon, and he kept pausing to answer another mobile phone.
Iโve known this Hezbollah fighter for more than six years, and I have never heard him express anything but loyalty to Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shia militia, U.S.-designated terror group and political party that, along with allied parties, holds more than half of the Cabinet seats in the Lebanese government. So it came as quite a shock when he criticized Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who is revered by his followers, and expressed support for the anti-government protests.
Open expressions of frustration with Hezbollah during public protests โ let alone support for such protests from Nasrallahโs dedicated foot soldiers โ are exceedingly rare.
โI support the protest movement because I am disgusted with life here,โ the battalion leader told me, speaking on condition of anonymity because Hezbollah does not permit its members to be interviewed by Western media. He noted that while some Hezbollah followers have clashed with protesters as recently as Friday, others have actually joined in the demonstrations. โAll of our ministers are corrupt,โ he said. The Hezbollah leadership โis in a situation of chaos. They donโt know what to do right now.โ
As someone of Lebanese descent, I am incredibly moved to see so many people unite in opposition to a government that has exploited the country for too long. Images of protesters dancing with abandon and displaying humorous signs railing against the political elite demonstrate a surge of Lebanese spirit I never imagined I would see in a population so ground down by conflict and political stagnation. Across Lebanon, immense crowds have been heard shouting crude chants against some of the countryโs most prominent leaders since the demonstrations began a week ago.
The day Donald Trump stopped being the leader of the free world
While some of the coalition governmentโs leaders and parties have been frequent targets of demonstrations in this fractious country of divided religious sects, such as the Western- and Saudi-backed Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri, open expressions of frustration with Hezbollah during public protests โ let alone support for such protests from Nasrallahโs dedicated foot soldiers โ are exceedingly rare.
Hezbollah has weathered many storms in the 30 or so years it has been officially active, from an Israeli invasion in 2006 to the turmoil of the Syrian war next door, but never has it faced such strong domestic sentiment against it from across different sects. Whether Hezbollah chooses to quell the protests with force or sacrifice some of its political gains to appease demonstrators, one thing is certain: From a domestic standpoint, its leadership is facing the greatest existential crisis it has experienced in a long time.
This discontent with Lebanonโs most powerful political force represents either a potential crisis for the country if the situation turns violent, or an opportunity for its people to take the government in a new direction. In both cases, how the Trump administration chooses to respond could tip the scales in a positive direction for the Lebanese people or worsen a fragile and potentially disastrous security situation.
There are many unprecedented aspects to these demonstrations, including their size, scope and cross-sectarian nature. The protests erupted in response to an economic crisis that largely stems from long-standing corruption and political ineptitude as well as a massive refugee crisis brought on by the Syrian civil war.The nuclear risks in a U.S.-Iran conflict remain very real โ and very scary
But the U.S. has also played a role: Crippling sanctions on Hezbollah recently imposed by the Trump administration have accelerated Lebanonโs economic woes. The U.S. accuses the Iranian proxy force of being behind a spate of kidnappings and bombings of American targets in the 1980s and now building up its arms for another war with Israel. Strengthened U.S. sanctions are being promoted as a way to force Hezbollah to its knees by strangling its sources of funding and ability to conduct financial transactions.
This U.S. role in the economic upheaval also underscores Hezbollahโs increasingly tenuous position. Nasrallah gave a speech Saturday in which he acknowledged the validity of the protestersโ demands, but expressed his opposition to the formation of a new government by including a thinly veiled threat that Hezbollah could try to contain the situation by taking over Beirut, as it did in 2008. โShall Hezbollah โฆ participate in the demonstrations, we wonโt back down until our demands are met, even if we have to stay for months in the streets,โ Nasrallah said.
In the speech, Nasrallah maintained that no foreign countries are influencing the protests โ but he changed his tune this Friday, warning of a potential civil war erupting in Lebanon and urging followers to stay away from the demonstrations because he says international actors that oppose Hezbollah are exploiting them for their own purposes. Some still-loyal members of Hezbollah are predictably casting blame on the U.S. and Israel, and a Hezbollah infantry fighter I also spoke with was clear about who he believes is behind the unrest in Lebanon.
โThe American pressure has had an effect,โ he said, also speaking on condition of anonymity. โWe were like a man walking on only one leg, and they broke that leg as well. โฆ It is important to America to destabilize the situation in Lebanon.โ
Bilal Saab, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank, says that while the impact of the protests on Hezbollahโs political and military strength should not be overstated, there is no doubt the demonstrations have shaken the groupโs confidence.
[These protests] are taking place across the country in places where you never expected Shia activism against the representativesโ of the government, Saab said. โThe very audacity of that, the widespread nature of it โ itโs certainly new, and itโs not good news for the organization.โ
Indeed, this popular uprising presents the Trump administration with an opportunity to carefully express support for a movement that could lead to a better government from Americaโs standpoint as well as for the Lebanese people without applying the kind of heavy-handed, inflammatory rhetoric Trump did with recent protests in Iran.
But there is also a significant risk that, should the U.S. repeat characteristic missteps, it could unleash even more chaos in a turbulent region. Unlike former President Barack Obama, Trump โuses sanctions like a sledgehammer and bangs away, and the more things break, the better,โ said George A. Lopez, a professor at Notre Dame and an expert on sanctions.
Thus far, there has been a peculiar lack of messaging from the Trump administration regarding the Lebanese protests. While progressive 2020 Democratic presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are publicly supporting the demonstrations, the usually vocal Trump is strangely silent on events that may be weakening a longtime U.S. foe. Saab said this silence could be a sign of the confusion that has marked much of Trumpโs Middle East policy. It could also be that the U.S. doesnโt want to be viewed as instigating the protests and thereby undermine them.
Whatever the goal and strategy, if Hezbollah doesnโt peacefully cede some of its political clout in response to the demonstrations, the situation could turn violent. Given the presence of other Iranian proxy forces across the region, any confrontation between the U.S. or its allies and Iran in Lebanon could spread to other parts of the Middle East.
In addition to Nasrallahโs own subtle threat to use force to maintain his grip on government, his followers, too, indicate a limited tolerance for the protests, should they go on.
โWhat [the protesters] are doing now, with half-naked dancers and drinking and whatever, this culture is not for us,โ the Hezbollah infantryman told me, referring to what he sees as the immoral behavior protesters are engaging in. โWe want official, organized reform, and changes made by the current government, but not chaos. If they start calling for us to dismantle our weapons, we will spill blood โ even if it is our brothersโ.โ https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/lebanon-protests-rock-hezbollah-s-grip-power-s-cause-hope-ncna1072256?fbclid=IwAR1dRbsk0uk4WrBx6cCc12FACacuvh6tD8jexsHkOYl2LjmlmJUn **Sulome Anderson
Sulome Anderson is a journalist and author based in Beirut and New York City. Her award-winning book โThe Hostageโs Daughterโ was published by HarperCollins in 2016. Follow her on Twitter @SulomeAnderson.
How Lebanonโs sectarian lens was broken
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 26, 2019
As a second week of protests continues in Lebanon, nothing seems to calm the popular wrath; on the contrary, every time an official makes a public speech, the public grows more offended at what they see as government hypocrisy and blatant mockery of their suffering. There is total discontent with the current system and political class, and an urgent need to move to something new.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri presented a program of economic reforms last week, but it was aimed more as fodder for media consumption than as a genuine plan to drive the radical and drastic reforms the country needs. For example, one of Haririโs proposals was a 50 percent reduction in the salaries of ministers and members of parliament. However, the waste of public money that is bringing Lebanon to its knees is not due to the salaries of officials, but to the corruption associated with major government projects. Many officials receive kickbacks on such projects, or make illegal profits by bypassing the competitive bidding process while awarding contracts.
Three days after Haririโs speech, President Michel Aoun also addressed the people and promised to fight corruption. He told the protesters he was willing to meet their representatives, but insisted that the streets were not a proper forum for bringing about reforms, which should be conducted through government institutions. However, his speech only fanned the flames and drove more people to the street. One protester said: โWhat reforms? We have seen nothing from his three-year presidency except a sectarian election law.โ The Lebanese people do not trust government institutions that are controlled by corrupt politicians. The protesters were not even deterred by the speech of Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, who warned that the protests could lead to a new civil war. The demonstrators just kept coming.
The irony is that many of the politicians complaining about corruption and sectarianism are themselves a symptom of these two ailments. That is why one of the slogans shouted by protesters in the streets is: โAll means allโ โ in other words, the whole government must go. This has led some politicians to grow nervous, and to start a blame game to save their own skins. A recording emerged of the sister of Gebran Bassil โ the foreign minister and presidentโs son-in-law, who has been widely accused of corruption โ in which she defended her brother and accused parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri of corruption. Sooner or later, the politicians who have driven the country into the ground will all blame each other.
The significance of the protest movement lies in the fact that the Lebanese people have begun to look beyond their religious denominations and their party affiliations. The sectarian lens has been broken. People now realise it is the current system that has driven them to the situation they are in. They want change โ but how?
They like to call the protests a โrevolution,โ but it is more of a spontaneous movement. The protesters have even composed their own anthem, an adaptation of the Ode to Joy, the 18th-century German poem set to the grandiose music of Beethovenโs Ninth Symphony, but the movement still has no proper structure, no head and no leadership. Every now and then the media gets different cues from people in the streets. Some say they want the parliament to resign, and they demand early elections. However, that would not solve the problems of Lebanon. The election law has resulted in gerrymandering the different voting districts in a way that promotes the sectarian political structure. The chances are, if an early election took place, Lebanon would end up with the same political figures, even if the law were changed. The system has not allowed for alternative political figures to flourish. This is why the country badly needs a proper political transition in which it moves from the democracy of the denominations to the democracy of the citizen
It is important to properly manage this movement and to steer it in the right direction; to capitalize on the momentum to carry out the necessary structural changes and reach a true democracy, a democracy in which the individual is treated as a citizen and not as a member of one denomination or another. Such a system in return would make each citizen feel first and foremost Lebanese, before they feel Christian, Sunni, Shiite or Druze.
The irony is that many of the politicians complaining about corruption and sectarianism are themselves a symptom of these two ailments.
I have written before that the Lebanese people need the support of the army, but that does not mean that Lebanon needs military rule. Rather, Lebanon needs the military to be the guardian of the political transition. The transition should drive government departments to be reformed and made efficient and cost effective. At this point there is a need for international institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to set the standards and processes to conduct such reforms. Most importantly, the transition should involve criminal trials of corrupt politicians and the reacquisition of embezzled funds. Once these criminals have been exposed and put on trial, the Lebanese people will totally break with the traditional corrupt political elite and move on to a new era, an era of genuine democracy.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She holds a PhD in politics from the University of Exeter and is an affiliated scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
Lebanon must strategise and turn these peaceful protests into a win in the long run
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 26/2019
Protesters have to thwart agendas to turn their country into a failed state as that would then make it an arena for proxy wars
Lebanonโs wonderful, civilised protests have induced panic in the ranks of sectarian leaders, warlords and oligarchs and will bear more fruits if the protesters consolidate gains and pocket demands. What is happening is historical, not a fleeting outburst that will be contained, as many political leaders falsely and arrogantly believe.
Yet in order to remove the rot from a regime that has become accustomed to disregarding people and their rights, it will not be enough to disobey and overcome fear. The Lebanese must fasten their belts and be vigilant of those trying to overturn the uprising into dangerous populist demagoguery. To prepare for the next round, the people must insist on reforms and adopt a strategy of calculated perseverance. For now, however, we must congratulate the Lebanese for their demands, their insistence on their rights and in their refusal to fall into sectarian traps and be appeased.
More than a week after the protests started, threats by political leaders have failed. The unity and spontaneous organisation among protesters has been astonishing. The message is: the Lebanese have woken after a long coma. It is clear to the people that greed and stupidity drive the decisions of Lebanonโs rulers. The people will now accept only those who they can trust to occupy government posts.
Persisting with peaceful protests is the peopleโs strongest card. They must continue in their refusal to be drawn into clashes as this will protect the uprising against corruption, sectarianism, crony capitalism and the deliberate impoverishment of the country. It is crucial for protesters to develop a strategy to thwart agendas to turn Lebanon into a failed state that could become an arena for proxy wars.
This is not a revolution of the hungry, as some like to characterise it. It is a revolution to take back the state from a clique that thought it could subdue its people through sectarian fearmongering and treating them like cattle in a herd.
One after the other, Lebanonโs leaders have spoken with contempt, believing the uprising will be short-lived. President Michel Aounโs belated bungled speech prompted pity for him and anger against those who allowed the presidency to fall so low. The prime ministerโs office is in no better shape, thanks to the performance of Saad Hariri, who falsely believes he can appease people through half measures and that stalling would be in his favour.
Refusing to be drawn into clashes will protect the uprising against corruption, sectarianism, crony capitalism and the deliberate impoverishment of Lebanon
For his part, parliament speaker Nabih Berri believes he is above accountability, even as people accuse him of being at the heart of corruption.
It wasnโt enough for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to tell the people that he alone controlled the decision of whether or not the government would resign. He had to shake his famous index finger in the face of the Lebanese, threatening that they would have to pay a price for protesting. The peopleโs response came quickly. From the southern coastal city of Tyre to the north via Martyrsโ Square in Beirut, they refused to back down.
Druze leader Walid Jumblatt thought that he could engage in political acrobatics once again, but people again responded. His fear of Nasrallah would no longer be an acceptable justification for realpolitik. Gebran Bassil, the foreign minister, spoke from Baabda Presidential Palace as though he was the acting president, and declared his continued allegiance to Hezbollah. The street protests have pledged to prosecute him.
Yet none of these men will step down easily. Many of them believe they must stay to ward off total collapse. Some of them will try to convince the army to suppress protests. Some will take it upon themselves to have their thugs assault protesters and divide them.
So far, the world has watched the events in Lebanon from a distance. Washington has been keen to reject calls by some Lebanese leaders to advise them on whether to resign or stick to their posts. Washington has rejected playing the puppet master. The US in its refusal to make decisions for Lebanonโs leaders is a good sign.
Washington says it will not back those who have sought half measures rejected by the people. Washington will not save the banks, will not offer immunity and will not stand in the way of a peaceful anti-corruption uprising. Washington will not intervene to save Mr Haririโs government or the Aoun-Bassil presidency. It is clear in its support for the army and its neutrality. Washingtonโs decision is that the uprising belongs to the Lebanese alone, and its achievements must be protected against accusations of American meddling.
If this anti-corruption uprising survives attempts at sectarian infiltration, it could topple the entire political class. Further, the protests could hinder Hezbollahโs project to dominate the future of Lebanon, and avoid US sanctions crippling the groupโs operations and targeting its funding sources in Tehran.
The protests have dented Hassan Nasrallahโs halo as a man who is above accountability and left him scrambling. Nasrallah at first dismissed the protests. Then he issued threats, betraying his anger and panic at a mass revolt that could decimate his project and the project of his masters in Tehran. He has to either cave to the protestersโ demands and stop blocking the governmentโs resignation โ allowing it to be replaced by a technocratic government that he would not control โ or spill blood, including among Shia Lebanese protesters.
Hezbollah may decide to destroy the whole temple on top of everybodyโs heads if it senses that it has been structurally weakened. Hezbollah will not easily relinquish control of its domination of Lebanon, the presidency, and the government thanks to the โaccordโ between Hariri, Nasrallah, and Aoun, midwifed by Bassil, the accord which has pushed Lebanon off the cliff and into the abyss. In other words, Nasrallah may decide that turning Lebanon into a failed state serves his interests, and pushes the country in that direction.
It is therefore imperative for the Lebanese uprising to adopt a counter-strategy to prevent the stateโs collapse while insisting on binding social, political, and economic reforms that range from the immediate to the gradual. The uprising must adopt a tactic of โtake and demand moreโ in order to consolidate its gains and push for accountability.
Right now, the most important matter is to persist in the protests and protect them, by avoiding the trap of provocation. Indeed, charging people amid the collapse could lead to riots, and attacks on homes and properties, which must not happen.
It is important to understand boundaries and factor them into tactics in order to achieve strategic wins against corruption and greed festering in the ruling class. If the public interest is best served through a technocratic government formed by Mr Hariri with figures acceptable to the people, then this would not count as a strategic concession but a tactical move as part of a broader strategy to prevent total collapse. It would count as a battle won among many coming battles.
A gradual approach is necessary. The first stop, after the revolution achieved historical gains by rising up against the โgovernment of accordโ, is to stabilise the economy in order to cope with political shocks. This does not mean giving up the demand for fundamental rights such as new parliamentary elections on the basis of a new law and a broad campaign to prosecute the corrupt and restore looted public funds. But pragmatism is important, and pragmatism at this stage requires protecting the uprising from Hezbollahโs weapons and any bid to collapse state institutions.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and president of the Beirut Institute
Is any among you suffering? Let him pray. Is any cheerful? Let him sing praises. Is any among you sick? Let him call for the elders of the assembly, and let them pray over him
James 05/41/20/ Is any among you suffering? Let him pray. Is any cheerful? Let him sing praises. Is any among you sick? Let him call for the elders of the assembly, and let them pray over him, anointing him with oil in the name of the Lord, and the prayer of faith will heal him who is sick, and the Lord will raise him up. If he has committed sins, he will be forgiven. Confess your offenses to one another, and pray for one another, that you may be healed. The insistent prayer of a righteous person is powerfully effective. Elijah was a man with a nature like ours, and he prayed earnestly that it might not rain, and it didnโt rain on the earth for three years and six months. He prayed again, and the sky gave rain, and the earth produced its fruit.
Brothers, if any among you wanders from the truth and someone turns him back, let him know that he who turns a sinner from the error of his way will save a soul from death and will cover a multitude of sins.
The prayer of faith will save the sick, and the Lord will raise them up; and anyone who has committed sins will be forgiven.
Letter of James 05/13-20/:โAre any among you suffering? They should pray. Are any cheerful? They should sing songs of praise. Are any among you sick? They should call for the elders of the church and have them pray over them, anointing them with oil in the name of the Lord.ย The prayer of faith will save the sick, and the Lord will raise them up; and anyone who has committed sins will be forgiven. Therefore confess your sins to one another, and pray for one another, so that you may be healed. The prayer of the righteous is powerful and effective.ย Elijah was a human being like us, and he prayed fervently that it might not rain, and for three years and six months it did not rain on the earth. Then he prayed again, and the heaven gave rain and the earth yielded its harvest. My brothers and sisters, if anyone among you wanders from the truth and is brought back by another, you should know that whoever brings back a sinner from wandering will save the sinnerโs soul from death and will cover a multitude of sins.โ
They will crush you to the ground, you and your children within you, and they will not leave within you one stone upon another
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 19/41-44/:โAs Jesus came near and saw the city, he wept over it, saying, โIf you, even you, had only recognized on this day the things that make for peace! But now they are hidden from your eyes. Indeed, the days will come upon you, when your enemies will set up ramparts around you and surround you, and hem you in on every side. They will crush you to the ground, you and your children within you, and they will not leave within you one stone upon another; because you did not recognize the time of your visitation from God.โ