هَا إِنَّ إِبْلِيسَ مُزْمِعٌ أَنْ يُلْقِيَ بَعْضًا مِنْكُم في ٱلسِّجْن، لِيُجَرِّبَكُم، فَتُعَانُونَ ٱلضِّيقَ 
رؤيا القدّيس يوحنّا02/من08حتى11/:”يا إِخوَتِي، قالَ ليَ ابْنُ الإِنسان : «أُكْتُبْ إِلى مَلاكِ ٱلكَنِيسَةِ ٱلَّتِي في إِزْمِير: هذَا مَا يَقُولُهُ ٱلأَوَّلُ وٱلآخِر، ذَاكَ ٱلَّذي أَمْسَى مَيْتًا ثُمَّ عَادَ حَيًّا: إِنِّي عالمٌ بِمَا أَنْتَ عَلَيْهِ من ضِيقٍ وفَقْرٍ مَعَ أَنَّكَ غَنِيّ، وَعَالِمٌ أَيضًا بِتَجْدِيفِ ٱلَّذِينَ يَزْعَمُونَ أَنَّهُم يَهُود، وَهُم لَيْسُوا بِيَهُود، بَلْ هُمْ مَجْمَعٌ لِلشَّيْطَان. فلا تَخَفِ ٱلبَتَّةَ مِمَّا سَتُعَاني مِنْ آلام. هَا إِنَّ إِبْلِيسَ مُزْمِعٌ أَنْ يُلْقِيَ بَعْضًا مِنْكُم في ٱلسِّجْن، لِيُجَرِّبَكُم، فَتُعَانُونَ ٱلضِّيقَ عَشَرَةَ أَيَّام. فَكُنْ أَمِينًا حَتَّى ٱلْمَوت، وأَنا أُعْطِيكَ إِكْلِيلَ ٱلحَياة. مَنْ لَهُ أُذُنَانِ فَلْيَسْمَعْ، ما يَقُولُهُ ٱلرُّوحُ لِلكَنَائِس: أَلظَّافِرُ لَنْ يُؤْذِيَهُ ٱلْمَوتُ ٱلثَّاني”.

Beware, the devil is about to throw some of you into prison so that you may be tested
Book of Revelation 02/08-11/:”‘To the angel of the church in Smyrna write: These are the words of the first and the last, who was dead and came to life: ‘I know your affliction and your poverty, even though you are rich. I know the slander on the part of those who say that they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan. Do not fear what you are about to suffer. Beware, the devil is about to throw some of you into prison so that you may be tested, and for ten days you will have affliction. Be faithful until death, and I will give you the crown of life. Let anyone who has an ear listen to what the Spirit is saying to the churches. Whoever conquers will not be harmed by the second death.”

إنَّهُ لأَسْهَلُ أَنْ يَدْخُلَ جَمَلٌ في خِرْمِ الإِبْرَة، مِنْ أَنْ يَدْخُلَ غَنِيٌّ مَلَكُوتَ الله
إنجيل القدّيس مرقس10/من17حتى27/:”أَسْرَعَ إِلَى يَسُوعَ رَجُلٌ وجَثَا أَمَامَهُ وسَأَلَهُ: «أَيُّها المُعَلِّمُ الصَّالِح، مَاذَا أَعْمَلُ لأَرِثَ الحَيَاةَ الأَبَدِيَّة؟». فقَالَ لَهُ يَسُوع: «لِمَاذَا تَدْعُونِي صَالِحًا؟ لا أَحَدَ صَالِحٌ إِلاَّ وَاحِد، هُوَ ٱلله! أَنْتَ تَعْرِفُ الوَصَايَا: لا تَقْتُلْ، لا تَزْنِ، لا تَسْرِقْ، لا تَشْهَدْ بِٱلزُّور، لا تَظْلِمْ، أَكْرِمْ أَبَاكَ وَأُمَّكَ». فقَالَ لَهُ الرَّجُل: «يَا مُعَلِّم، هذِهِ كُلُّها حَفِظْتُها مُنْذُ صِبَاي». وحَدَّقَ إِلَيْهِ يَسُوعُ فَأَحبَّهُ، وقَالَ لَهُ: «وَاحِدَةٌ تَنْقُصُكَ: إِذْهَبْ، وَبِعْ كُلَّ مَا لَكَ، وأَعْطِ الفُقَرَاء، فَيَكُونَ لَكَ كَنْزٌ في السَّمَاء، وتَعَالَ ٱتْبَعْنِي!». فَٱغْتَمَّ الرَّجُلُ لِهذَا الكَلام، ومَضَى حَزِينًا، لأَنَّهُ كانَ صَاحِبَ مُقْتَنَياتٍ كَثِيرة. فأَجالَ يَسُوعُ نَظَرَهُ في مَنْ حَوْلَهُ وقَالَ لِتَلامِيذِهِ: «مَا أَصْعَبَ عَلَى الأَثْرِيَاءِ أَنْ يَدْخُلُوا مَلَكُوتَ الله!». ودَهِشَ التَّلامِيذُ مِنْ كَلامِهِ، فَأَجَابَ يَسُوعُ ثَانِيَةً وقَالَ لَهُم: «يَا بَنِيَّ، مَا أَصْعَبَ الدُّخُولَ إِلى مَلَكُوتِ الله! إِنَّهُ لأَسْهَلُ أَنْ يَدْخُلَ جَمَلٌ في خِرْمِ الإِبْرَة، مِنْ أَنْ يَدْخُلَ غَنِيٌّ مَلَكُوتَ الله». فَبُهِتُوا جِدًّا وقَالُوا بَعْضُهُم لِبَعْض: «فَمَنْ يَقْدِرُ أَنْ يَخْلُص؟». فحَدَّقَ إِلَيْهِم يَسُوعُ وقَال: «هذَا غَيْرُ مُمْكِنٍ عِنْدَ النَّاس، لا عِنْدَ الله، فَعِنْدَ اللهِ كُلُّ شَيءٍ مُمْكِن».

It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 10/17-27/:”As Jesus was setting out on a journey, a man ran up and knelt before him, and asked him, ‘Good Teacher, what must I do to inherit eternal life?’Jesus said to him, ‘Why do you call me good? No one is good but God alone. You know the commandments: “You shall not murder; You shall not commit adultery; You shall not steal; You shall not bear false witness; You shall not defraud; Honour your father and mother.” ’He said to him, ‘Teacher, I have kept all these since my youth.’Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, ‘You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me.’When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions. Then Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, ‘How hard it will be for those who have wealth to enter the kingdom of God!’ And the disciples were perplexed at these words. But Jesus said to them again, ‘Children, how hard it is to enter the kingdom of God! It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God.’They were greatly astounded and said to one another, ‘Then who can be saved?’Jesus looked at them and said, ‘For mortals it is impossible, but not for God; for God all things are possible.’”

The post هَا إِنَّ إِبْلِيسَ مُزْمِعٌ أَنْ يُلْقِيَ بَعْضًا مِنْكُم في ٱلسِّجْن، لِيُجَرِّبَكُم، فَتُعَانُونَ ٱلضِّيقَ/Beware, the devil is about to throw some of you into prison so that you may be tested appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

الحراك الجنوبي يصدّع الثنائية المتسلطة.. صور نموذجاً

علي الأمين/جنوبية/17 تشرين الثاني/2019

الجنوبيون ليسوا بأفضل أحوالهم منذ زمن بعيد. يعيشون يوميات مقيتة في ظل قبضة حديدية تمارسها “طغمة ثنائية”، نصبت نفسها والية عليهم ووليّة أمرهم بالأصالة والوكالة.

تعتمل قلوب شريحة لا بأس بها من أهالي جبل عامل يوماً بعد يوم، ويكظمون غيظهم التاريخي من جراء التمادي في التهميش وسرقة لحظات حرية يستحقونها.

انتفاضة 17 تشرين الأول كانت نقطة التحولات العظيمة في كل لبنان،  وكان للحراك الجنوبي حصّة ودوراً  وحضوراً متمايزاً، بالتزامن مع الخصوصية الجنوبية التي سبقتها وتمثلت بالحدث، الذي يفترض أن يكون  ديمقراطياً، في قضاء صور وفي الجنوب عموما، هو الانتخابات النيابية الفرعية في قضاء صور،  الذي خلق حالاً من القهر والتململ.

فالانتخابات التي كان موعدها في 15 أيلول أي قبل شهر من انتفاضة صور في 18 تشرين الأول، لم تجر لأن أحداً لم يُقدم على الترشح في مقابل مرشح الثنائية الشيعية الحاج حسن عزالدين، أو بسبب انسحاب سيدتين ترشحتا في مواجهة عزالدين، مايا خضرا التي انسحبت وانكفأت بسبب ما نالها من اتهامات وتهديد وضغوط أعلنت هي نفسها عنها في رسالة صوتية مؤثرة، وانسحاب الثانية المحامية بشرى الخليل التي استجابت من “موقع الاعتزاز وبتأثر وطني وقومي ووجداني”، إلى طلب الأمين العام لحزب الله بالانسحاب من المنافسة مع “مرشح المقاومة”.

قهر الجنوبيين.. بالتزكية على هذا المشهد الدرامي انتهت الانتخابات بالتزكية وبفوز الحاج حسن عزالدين بالمقعد النيابي الذي فرغ باستقالة زميله ورفيقه في حزب الله النائب السابق نواف الموسوي، دراما الانتخابات وما رافقها من وجدانيات السلطة والمقاومة، رافقتها سوريالية لم يكن يمكن فهمها قبل انتفاضة 17 تشرين الأول، فالانتخابات وفوز مرشح الثنائية الشيعية، كان في الشكل مخالفا لقانون الانتخاب، باعتبار ان انسحاب  الخليل من السباق جاء بعد الموعد الأقصى المحدد قانونا لقيام المرشح بالانسحاب، ولم تجر عملية الاقتراع في خطوة مخالفة للقانون، بحيث الحقت بإعلان فوز عزالدين بالتزكية.

هذه الدراما والسوريالية عكست في حينه حجم الاطباق لدى الثنائية الشيعية على المجتمع، ذلك أن اشباع نهمهما للسلطة والاستئثار، لم يقتصر على سيطرتهما الكاملة على التمثيل النيابي الشيعي، ولا استحواذهما على التمثيل الوزاري، والتحكم بالإدارة العامة، وسيطرتهما الى حدّ بعيد على الأجهزة الأمنية والعدلية والقضائية، والمؤسسات العامة والبلديات، نهم السلطة احدث استعلاءً وصل الى الحدّ الذي ارادا فيه من المجتمع الانتخابي على وجه العموم، ان ينتقل من فكرة الاختبار الانتخابي المضمون في نتيجته لصالح الثنائية، الى عدم قبول بفكرة الترشح في وجه الثنائية، واعتبار الترشح في وجه مرشح الثنائية عملية تتسم بالخيانة أو التطاول على سلطة الثنائية الممتدة من الأرض الى السماء.

في المقابل لم يكن نبض الاعتراض ولا المجموعات المعارضة في الممارسة خارج هذا التسليم لمنطق الثنائية، سواء كان  طوعا أو كرهاً، هذا في الشكل ولكن في المضمون كان ثمة قناعة شبه راسخة لدى معظم هذه النخب الاعتراضية والمجموعات حولها، أن لا طائل من المواجهة طالما أن السطوة الأمنية والسياسية لدى الثنائية لن تتراجع عن قمع وشيطنة أي قوة معارضة لسلطتهما السياسية والإدارية، في ظل غياب فاضح لسلطة القانون ولمؤسسات الدولة المحايدة، وهذا ما كانوا خبروه في الانتخابات النيابية السابقة ٢٠١٨، وفي كل المحطات السياسية والمطلبية خلال اكثر من ربع قرن.

إحراق “إستراحة صور”.. رمزية النفوذ في 18 تشرين الأول وبالتزامن مع التحركات والاحتجاجات في بيروت وغيرها من المناطق اللبنانية، اختار المحتجون في مدينة صور النزول الى الشارع، واندفع بعضهم بشكل عفوي على ما أظهرت التحقيقات المسرّبة من قبل الأجهزة الأمنية، نحو استراحة صور، التي احرق بعض المحتجين جزء منها.

واختيار مبنى الاستراحة، كان لما يحمله من رمزية لنفوذ السيدة رنده بري، اذ ان الاستراحة في صور كانت تشكل في وعيّ الصوريين والجنوبيين على وجه العموم، نموذجا لكيفية استخدام السلطة من أجل المنافع الخاصة، وعلى رغم النفي الذي صدر لجهة علاقة السيدة بري باستراحة صور، لجهة استثماراً أو ملكية، فان رسوخ هذه العلاقة بصورتها المنفرة في وعي أبناء صور أمر لا يحتاج الى التدقيق أو التحقق.

على أن اللافت أنّ عملية المسّ برموز السلطة من خلال الشعارات أو الشتائم التي وجهها بعض المحتجين في صور، لم تصدر عن تلك الجهات أو النخب المعروفة بخصومتها مع الثنائية أو تجاه حركة أمل، ما كان لافتا في هذه الاحتجاجات أن معظم الذين تدفقوا الى الشارع، كانوا من الشباب الى جانب كونهم من البيئة التي تعتبر موالية للثنائية أو على الأقل ليس معروفا عنها ايّ اعتراض علني، وهذا ما اربك حركة أمل بالدرجة الأولى، باعتبار ان مدينة صور وقضاءها يعتبران معقلا أساسيا لحركة أمل والرئيس نبيه بري، على رغم التراجع في النفوذ لصالح حزب الله.

احراق استراحة صور عملية احراق الإطارات في مفاصل الطرق وعلى الاوتوستراد الساحلي في الجنوب، قام بها مناصرون لحركة أمل، ممن عبروا في خروجهم هذا عن غضب مكتوم، لم يستطيعوا تفجيره في مناسبات تنظيمية لحركة أمل (المؤتمر العام) ومنهم من جرى تهميشه ووقف رواتبه، وبالتالي شكل هؤلاء عنصراً مشجعاً للعديد من المواطنين الذين خرجوا الى الطرقات في اكثر من بلدة، كان من ابرز مؤشراتها حرق الإطارات في معظم التقاطعات الرئيسة في الجنوب وتحديدا في الفترة الممتدة بين 18 و20 تشرين الأول.

“الثنائية” تنقض على المحتجّين اندفاعة المواطنين في التعبير عن غضبهم ضد السلطة، واعتراضاً على سياسة الافقار وعلى البطالة وسوء الأوضاع الاقتصادية، كان ينطوي على انتفاضة يمكن وصفها بالداخلية في حركة أمل نفسها، واذا كان حزب الله اكثر تماسكا من الناحية التنظيمية، واكثر قدرة على افهام محازبيه حقيقة ما اعتبره مؤامرة على المقاومة، فان ذلك لم يمنع من تفلت بعض الذين يندرجون في اطار المناصرين له، لكن ذلك بقي محدودا، وان أحدث بعض الترددات لاسيما على مستوى بعض رجال الدين، ما لبث حزب الله أن قام بعملية امنية اجتماعية استطاع من خلالها الزام من خرج من رجال الدين معترضا على الحكومة وسياساتها الى العودة نحو منازلهم مع التزام الصمت.

من جهتها قامت حركة أمل في البداية وفي 19 تشرين بتنظيم تظاهرة مسلحة في صور قادها النائب علي خريس، لعب جزء منها دور البلطجية ضد المحتجين، فيما وصف النائب خريس هؤلاء بالعملاء للعدو وللسفارات، هذا السلوك من قبل حركة أمل استكمل بحركة اتصالات تضمنت تهديدات للمشاركين في الاحتجاجات، واغدقت الوعود على عناصرها المحتجين، بإعادة مخصصاتهم المالية وبتغيير في الأشخاص المسؤولين في مواقع حركية. وفي مقابل هذه الوعود تم طرد العديد من العاملين في مؤسسات خاصة وعامة، ممن شاركوا في الاحتجاجات، وتم تهديد أقرباء بعض المشاركين بالتضييق عليهم في حال لم يمنعوهم من المشاركة في الاحتجاجات، وساهمت وسائل الضغط هذه مع عملية الشيطنة للاحتجاجات في لجم الاندفاعة النسبية للمواطنين، لكنها لم تستطع ان تنهي مشهد الاعتصام في صور فضلا عن النبطية وكفررمان.

الحراك الجنوبي يصدع القوى المتسلطة الحراك الجنوبي ولا سيما في مدينة صور، احدث اهتزازاً قويا في بنية سلطة الثنائية الشيعية، بحيث بات من الثابت ان الجنوب قبل 17 تشرين هو غيره في 17 تشرين، المشكلة ليست في المجموعات التي تعادي السلطة او تتمايز عنها، بل في البيئة المجتمعية التي توصف بالموالية للثنائية الشيعية، فالانتفاضة الفعلية هي داخل حركة أمل وليس خارجها، بخلاف حزب الله الذي يتماسك تنظيميا ولا يتأثر محازبوه ماليا وهم مقتنعون بأن قائدهم السيد حسن نصرالله عند كلمته، حين يؤكد لهم أن الملاءة المالية لحزبه لن تتأثر لاسيما لجهة دفع رواتب المحازبين، لكن ذلك لا يلغي حقيقة تصدع العلاقة بين الحزب وبعض المؤيدين له في البيئة الشيعية، والتي اضطرته الى أن يصل الى التهديد وعلى طريقته الأمنية الى العديد من الناشطين، بل ثمة من وجّه رسالة اعتداء وتهديد من خلال ارسال مجموعة من البلطجية للاعتداء على احد رجال الدين الذي شارك في الحراك، وقرر هذا الرجل الدين بعد الإهانة الجسدية والتهديد أن يلتزم منزله.

تظاهرات النبطية الى غير ذلك من وسائل استخدمت في سبيل رفع كلفة الاحتجاج لدى الجنوبيين، وهو يعكس أسلوباً قمعياً لم يصل الى استخدامه في مراحل سابقة، وهذا لا يعني بالضرورة أن ليس لدى حزب الله من يتبعونه من دون سؤال، بل ثمة تاييد كبير له في البيئة الشيعية، لكنها تعاني من ارباك وظروف مختلفة عن أيام البحبوحة التي تبعت حرب تموز 2006 ، وهي باتت تنصت الى مايقال عن الفساد، وباتت تشير الى معنى العلاقة بين حزب الله والفاسدين، من دون ان تلامس اتهام حزب الله في هذا الجانب، ومن دون ان تقوى على الخروز من العزلة المجتمعية، قصارى ما يجيب عليه حزب الله هذه القاعدة هو ان المؤامرة مستمرة على المقاومة والسلاح، وأن على الناس ان تتحمل ضريبة الفساد في مواجهة المؤامرة، قد يبدو هذا الكلام غير مقنع لكنه يساعد على كظم الغيظ لدى بيئة حزب الله ضد الفساد والضيق المعيشي، الى جانب عنوان آخر يجري اعتماده في البيئة الشيعية، هو أن ما يجري في لبنان وفي العراق هو امر خطير يريد للشيعة ان يعودوا محكومين لا حاكمين.

مستوى الشعارات والمنطق الذي تروجه الثورة المضادة في الجنوب، بات يفتقد نفس القوة والفاعلية التي كان عليها في زمن الحرب على الإرهاب وإسرائيل، المشكلة أن الناس تعرف من يفسد ومن يسرق وقد تتسامح معه الى حين ولكن ليس الى الحدّ الذي تجوع، ويمكن ان تتقبل الكلام عن الطائفة الحاكمة، ولكنها تريد أن تلمس مكاسب الحكم من جهة، وان تصدق أن بقية اللبنانيين لاسيما ان اقرانهم من اللبنانيين المنتفضين هم فعلا لا يريدون دولة يسقط فيها الفاسد وينعم في ظلالها المواطن الشريف.

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قمع الثورة اللبنانية وارد بقرار إيراني وبمباركة روسية

راغدة درغام/ايلاف/17 تشرين الثاني/2019

ستزداد الخُطورة على الثورة اللبنانية بسبب قرارات إيرانية وروسية تنوي إجهاض انتفاضة اللبنانيين على “حزب الله” وتعتزم نصب الحزب “وكيل الاستقرار” في لبنان دون غيره.

ما لم يكن أبناء هذه الثورة الراقية والرائعة جاهزين للتضحية بالأرواح والمُثابرة لزمن طويل بالرغم من العناء والدماء، ستُعلن القيادات الإيرانية الانتصار وستبلّغ الى القيادة الروسية انها حقاّ نفّذت الوعود التي قطعتها لها بأنها ستوقف المظاهرات اما بالقوّة أو بالإنهاك أو بالاستنزاف.

ظاهرياً، تزعم طهران وموسكو ان هذه الثورة ليست ضد “حزب الله” بل هي ضد الفساد. انما ضمنياً وواقعياً، تعي العاصمتان تماماً أن هذه الانتفاضة لا تَعفي “حزب الله” من المحاسبة ولا تستثنيه من تهمة الفساد. والأهم، انها ثورة وطنية سلّمية رفعت الأعلام اللبنانية فقط لتشدّد على استعادة القرار في شأن مستقبل لبنان ليكون حصراً لبنانياً وليس إيرانياً كما هو الحال وكما تقرّ قيادة “حزب الله” بنفسها بإعلانها الولاء لمرشد الجمهورية الإسلامية وإقرارها بأن أموال “حزب الله” وسلاحه وصواريخه وعتاده، كلّها من الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية وبفضلها. طهران اتخذت قرار منع سقوط “حزب الله” ضحيّة للثورة اللبنانية بأي ثمن وكيفما كان، وهي عازمة، كما أبلغت القيادة الإيرانية الى الروس، على استخدام الوضع الراهن لمضاعفة نفوذ “حزب الله” وتعهّدت أنها ستعيد لبنان الى “الحياة الطبيعية” حتى لو “اتخذ النفوذ شكل القوة” من أجل “فرض القانون والنظام”.

بكلام آخر، ان الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية تعتزم كسر شوكة الانتفاضة اللبنانية بالقوة لأنها لن تسمح تحت أي ظرف كان أن تخسر نفوذها وتسلّطها على لبنان. اضافةً، انها تنظر الى لبنان كساحة مهمة في المبارزة بين طهران وواشنطن وتعتبر “حزب الله” أغلى ورقة لديها لن تفرّط بها مهما كلّف الأمر. هنا تزداد الخطورة على ثورة الأجيال المتداخلة التي انتفضت على فساد الطبقة السياسية والطبقة الحاكمة في لبنان بما فيها “حزب الله”.

انها أمام مشروع اقليمي ضخم لن يسمح لها أن تكون عثرة في طريقه أو أن تنضج لدرجة الإطاحة بإنجازاته. وبالتالي لا مناص لهذه الثورة من أن تدرس بعمق الأبعاد الإقليمية والدولية وأن تتبنّى خطوات استراتيجية وتكتيكية لضمان استمرارها، والاستفادة من إنجازاتها، ووضع آلية براغماتية لتنفيذ مطالبها بتدريجية وبتماسك. لا يجوز لهذه الانتفاضة أن تنطفئ، كما يراهن “محور الممانعة” لأسباب وجودية ويراهن كل فاسد في الطبقة السياسية الجشعة. فإذا كانت حقاً ثورة، انها لمسيرة صعبة وطويلة ودموية، وأول أبطال هذه الثورة هو علاء أبو فخر الذي أسقطته رصاصة اغتيال الثورة، فبات أيقونةً لها.

الولايات المتحدة ليست من أطلق الحراك الوطني التلقائي في لبنان وإنما تمعّن القادة السياسيين في نهب البلاد بلا حياء أو تردد هو الذي أطلق الحراك. انه انقلاب على وقاحة الطبقة الحاكمة وليس إملاءً من واشنطن، كما يريد البعض أن يثرثر.

أما وأن الانتفاضة تحوّلت الى مسيرة ثورة جديّة على حكومة التسوية التي فرضها “حزب الله” تفاهمياً مع رئيس الحكومة المستقيل سعد الحريري بتنسيق مع رئيس الجمهورية ميشال عون، فإن ذلك بالطبع أمر تُرحب به واشنطن لأن سياستها العلنية هي تضييق الخناق على “حزب الله” عبر العقوبات وتوسيع العقوبات لتشمل مَن يوفّر له الغطاء السياسي. فلا عجب أن تصفّق واشنطن لانتفاضة اللبنانيين أخيراً على وضعٍ غير طبيعي ان كان لجهة الانصياع للصمت على الفساد أو الانصياع للقبول بسيطرة “حزب الله” على لبنان. إنما واشنطن لم تصنع الثورة في لبنان، كما يثرثر الذين أُصيبوا بالهلع من ولادة الثورة ومن استمرارها. ان هذه الثورةصناعة وطنية.

لذلك، لا يليق بروسيا أن تنظر الى الثورة اللبنانية بهذا القدر من التحقير وكأن الشعب اللبناني دُميةً أو نكتةً للسخرية، ولا يجوز لها تحجيم الناس ومطالبهم الى مجرد حجر في ألاعيبها الإقليمية.

القيادة الروسية على مستوى رئاسة الجمهورية وكما يعبّر عنها وزير الخارجية سيرغي لافروف تُعطي الانطباع بأنها ضد الناس في الثورات العربية. انها ضد الناس في لبنان، تتهكّم على مطالبهم باسترخاء وبتدخّل فاضح مع طرفٍ في الحكم، ضد الناس. هكذا بدا سيرغي لافروف وهو يرد على سؤالٍ لي أثناء جلسة في “منتدى باريس للسلام” عندما استهزأ بالمطلب الأساسي للثورة وهو تشكيل حكومة تكنوقراطية من غير السياسيين الحزبيين معتبراً أنه مطلبٌ “غير واقعي” داعماً بذلك موقف “حزب الله” الذي يصرّ على حكومة سياسية جوهرياً حتى وان تم تطعيمها ببعض الأخصائيين من التكنوقراط.

 تقول المصادر الروسية أن موسكو تنظر الى “اللااستقرار” في لبنان كمصدر تهديد لجهودها داخل سوريا لضبط الأوضاع هناك سيّما وانها أمام مهمة معقّدة وغير مضمونة النجاح لصالح روسيا. خوفها أن يتطوّر اللااستقرار في لبنان لدرجة التأثير على سوريا. لذلك ان روسيا “لا تدعم المظاهرات”، وفي نظرها ان “الحكومة التكنوقراطية لا تملك الكفاءات والقدرات لضمان الاستقرار” وان “الحكومة غير السياسية ليس في وسعها ضبط الأمور” في لبنان.

“فقط حزب الله وإيران هما القادران على ضبط البلاد وفرض القانون وضمان الاستقرار”، قالت المصادر الروسية وتساءلت “مَن هناك غير حزب الله وإيران؟” وأضافت “ان روسيا تنظر الى المسألة من منظور ان بسط نفوذ حزب الله على لبنان أفضل من اندلاع حرب أهلية فيه لأن الأساس لها هو عدم انتشار اللااستقرار”.

ماذا عن الجيش اللبناني كضامن للاستقرار والقانون والأمن واستقلال البلاد؟ يُجيب المصدر الروسي “الجيش موضوع آخر. الجيش يعني ان البلاد لن تتوصل الى الاستقرار. يعني الحكم العسكري. بالنسبة لنا، من الأسهل بكثير التعامل مع حزب الله وإيران من التعامل مع الجيش اللبناني”.

لعل علاقة واشنطن مع الجيش هي التي تزعج موسكو. هذا شيء، إنما أن تدعم روسيا تمتين وتوسيع نفوذ إيران على لبنان، فإنها بذلك تنتهك مبدأ السيادة للبنان وتتعمّد تحقير الجيش اللبناني تحت ذريعة معارضة وهمّ الحكم العسكري. هذا لا يليق بدولة لها عضوية كاملة في مجلس الأمن تعهّدت الحفاظ على الأمن والسلم الدوليين واحترام السيادة للدول.

“هكذا هو الأمر” It is as it is قال المصدر الروسي “ان هذا الحل هو مقبول لنا أكثر من خيار اللااستقرار في لبنان. وحدهماإيران وحزب الله هما القادران على فرض الاستقرار”. أضاف “ان العنف يتزايد، وهمّنا الأول هو ألاّ ينمو اللااستقرار في لبنان”.

ما كشفه المصدر هو ان طهران أعطت موسكو “وعداً بتهدئة الأوضاع واعادة البلد الى حالته الطبيعية وذلك عبر وضع نهاية للمظاهرات واستئناف الأمور والحياة الطبيعية”. كيف سيحققون ذلك؟ بقوة السلاح؟ يجيب المصدر “وعدونا بأنهم سيسترجعون البلد من المظاهرات وسيستعيدون فرض النظام والقانون”. وهل ستغض روسيا النظر اذا تم تنفيذ الوعود الإيرانية باستخدام القوة العسكرية؟ يضحك المصدر ضحكة السخرية ويقول “وعدونا. نحن لا نريد اللااستقرار. اللااستقرار في لبنان ليس في المصلحة الروسية”.

هذه وصفة خراب، وهذا ما يجب على صنّاع القرار في موسكو أن يدركوه. رهانهم الآن هو على اندثار الثورة حتى لو كان ذلك نتيجة تخويف بهدر الدماء أو فعلاً نتيجة هدر الدماء. المواقف الروسية من الوعود الإيرانية تكاد تكون بمثابة إعطاء “الحرس الثوري” في طهران “رخصة قتل” للمتظاهرين في لبنان. فحذار. حذار أن يفوت ذلك شباب الثورة في لبنان. وحذار ألا تستدرك القيادة الروسية تداعيات استثماراتها السيئة في تدعيم النفوذ الإيراني في لبنان على حساب السيادة اللبنانية. حذار أن تمارس “الأسرة الدولية” هواية تجاهل مثل هذه الانتهاكات للسيادة اللبنانية سيّما وأن دعم روسيا لتوسيع إيران نفوذها في لبنان يعني عملياً دعمها للقضاء على ثورة شعبية لبنانية.

“محور الممانعة” الذي تدعمه موسكو يسوّق أمامها أن كتلته البشرية أكبر من حجم المتظاهرين ضد الفساد والطائفية وعنجهية حُكم الطبقة السياسية. يقول هذا المحور ان شارع “حزب الله” إذا نزل الى الساحة، وشارع حليفه “التيار الوطني الحر” وحدهما يشكّلان زحفاً بشرياً أكبر.

ما لا تشكّله الكتلة البشرية هذه هو استقلالية القرار اللبناني واحترامه الجيش اللبناني. رئيس الجمهورية الذي لطالما تباهى باحتضانه الجيش اللبناني كأولوية إنما هو اليوم رهينة انتمائه الى محور هو عملياً ضد الجيش اللبناني. انه بصمته على المشروع الإيراني في لبنان ومباركته له إنما يقصف وطنيته ويغتال جيشه لأن مشروع الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية هو أن تكون قوات “حزب الله” هي البديل عن الجيش اللبناني. ليس في بال قيادة إيران و”حزب الله” اعطاء القيادة للجيش اللبناني. فتصّرف أيها الرئيس على أساس هذه المعادلة قبل أيةٍ أخرى. تذكّر القسم الذي أديّته. فلا يليق بك لأي سبب كان أن تكون شاهداً على اغتيال ثورة شبابك المحقّة بقرار إيراني.

حذار ما تستثمره في عدم العودة عن قولك للبنانيين “هاجروا” ان لم يعجبهم حكمك. هذه آخرة لا يتمناها اللبنانيون لأي رئيس جمهورية. هؤلاء المتظاهرون من النساء والرجال، شباباً ومسنّين، عزّ عليهم كثيراً ما قلته لهم. عُد عن كلامك عبر أفعالك. طمأنهم أنك لست وكيل زعامة محور الممانعة في طهران وإنما أنت رئيس الجمهورية اللبنانية. افعل ما عليك أن تفعل لتستعيد الثقة، فواجب عليك أن تمنع تحوّل الثورة السلمية العادلة في لبنان الى مشروع “الحرس الثوري” أساسه إنهاء الثورة بدمويّة بحجة تثبيتك في الحكم كرئيس للجمهورية اللبنانية.

لا يهم ماذا يدور في فلك العلاقة الأميركية – الإيرانية وما إذا كان في واشنطن توجُهاً نحو انقلابات عالمياً أو اسقاط أنظمة عبر عقوبات خانقة. المهم هو ما يدور في ذهنك وفلكك كرئيس للجمهورية اللبنانية.

واشنطن واضحة في عزمها على خنق إيران وأذرعتها اقتصادياً بهدف تغيير سلوكها نووياً وصاروخياً وإقليمياً لتكفّ عن التوسّع في الجغرافيا العربية وفرض نموذج “الحرس الثوري” في الدول السيادية. “حزب الله” هو النموذج الأنجح للجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية. ولذلك، ان الواقعية السياسية تدفع الى الاعتراف ان لبنان تحوّل الى ساحة توسّع ونفوذ إيرانية أساسية ومصيريّة للنظام في طهران الذي يعتبر الانتفاضة الشعبية خطيرة عملياً على مشروعه حتى وان كان هدفها الرئيسي محاربة الفساد ومحاسبة الفاسدين في الطبقة الحاكمة. بالمقابل، تنظر واشنطن الى لبنان بأنه محطة مهمة في عملية تطويق الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية ومشاريعها التوسعيّة سيما وأن خاصرتها ضعيفة الآن في العراق وسوريا واليمن وفي الداخل الإيراني حيث سيحدث الانفجار الكبير إذا انتفض الإيرانيون ضد النظام وضد الجوع والعزل الذي سبّبته العقوباتالأميركية وضد القهر الذي رافق سلطوية النظام.

الوضع الداخلي في إيران يُقلق حكّامها كثيراً وهم عازمون على التضحية بآخر لبناني ولبنانية لإنقاذ مشروع الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية من الانهيار داخلياً واقليمياً. حتى الآن، يتجنّب “حزب الله” اتخاذ إجراءات على نسق تشكيل حكومة من لون واحد، أي حكومة مواجهة، لأن ذلك القرار سيجرّه الى مواجهة مباشرة مع الثورة الشعبية. لكن قرار قمع الانتفاضة وبتر الثورة تم اتخاذه في طهران، إذا لم يندثر وينطفئ حراك التمرّد على الوضع الراهن في لبنان، من فساد حكّامه الى تسلّط “حزب الله” عليه بسلاحٍ إيراني.

أمام هذه المعادلة، ان الجيش اللبناني هو صمّام الأمان. فإذا اختار رئيس الجمهورية اللبنانية لبنان فوق إيران، أمامه ألاّ يخشى مما يسميه بـ”الحرب الرابعة” إشارة الى استخدام وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي بين المتظاهرين، بل ان ينقلب على عناده وتعاليه وتحالفاته السياسية ويفاجئ نفسه والناس. وإلاّ، ستتلطخ أياديه وأيادي كامل الطاقم السياسي الحاكم بدماء الشباب اللبنانيين كخدمة مجانية لإيران.

The post راغدة درغام/قمع الثورة اللبنانية وارد بقرار إيراني وبمباركة روسية/ستزداد الخُطورة على الثورة اللبنانية بسبب قرارات إيرانية وروسية تنوي إجهاض انتفاضة اللبنانيين على حزب الله وتعتزم نصب الحزب وكيل الاستقرار في لبنان دون غيره appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

The “Great Pleasure in Destroying Christians”: The Persecution of Christians, September 2019
ريموند إبراهيم: تقرير عن اضطهاد المسيحيين لشهر أيلول/20019/هناك فرح لدى البعض في تدمير المسيحيين
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/November 17, 2019

“These regulations [from 2006] stipulate that all places of non-Muslim worship must be licenced. However, the government has yet to issue any licence for a church buildings [sic] under this ordinance, ignoring applications from churches to regularise their status in accordance with the ordinance.” — International Christian Response, September 25, 2019, Algeria.

Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board sought to deport a refugee family — a mother and three children — that had fled their native country of Nigeria after they were attacked and threatened with death for leaving Islam and converting to Christianity…. “They face a ‘fatwa’ (a pronouncement of death) against them for converting to Christianity from Islam. They believe they face certain death if they are returned to Nigeria. They are quite fearful.” … Supporters of the family said the government was not taking the time to establish the family’s humanitarian status or perform a proper risk assessment. “They’re trying to boot [them] out of the country before then.” The family’s current status is unclear.

Around mid-September, British police in Preston, Lancashire announced that they would be taking no action against a man who had earlier threatened to sodomize anyone who dares convert to Christianity. Pictured: The city center of Preston.

The Slaughter of Christians
Nigeria: On September 22, the jihadi group, Boko Haram, released a video depicting the execution of two Christian aid workers. Lawrence Duna Dacighir and Godfrey Ali Shikagham, both members of the Church of Christ in Nations, appeared on their knees, in front of three armed men, who proceeded to shoot them. Both Christians had gone to Maiduguri — near where they were captured — to help build shelters for people displaced by Islamic extremist violence. In the same video, and “speaking in the Hausa language, the middle one of the three terrorists says … that they have vowed to kill every Christian they capture…” Responding to the executions, Pastor Pofi, a cousin of the two executed Christians, said:

“Lawrence and Godfrey left Abuja for Maiduguri in search of opportunities to utilize their skills for the betterment of humanity and paid with their lives. We will never get their corpses to bury. The community will have to make do with a makeshift memorial to these young lives cut short so horrifically.”

Separately, a Christian pastor and the wife of another pastor were killed in two different raids by Muslim Fulani herdsmen. “After they had killed her [Esther Ishaku Katung], they were still demanding the ransom without telling her family that they had killed her,” a local Christian said. “It was only after the ransom was paid that it was found by her family that she had been killed by her abductors.” Her mutilated body was found dumped in the bushes.

Pakistan: Police in Lahore tortured to death a 28-year-old Christian man, Amir Masih. After Masih’s employer — for whom Masih had worked as a gardener — reported an incident of theft, police instructed Masih and the other employees to come in for questioning. “My brother went to the police station of his own will,” Sunny Masih, Amir’s brother, explained. “When he reached there [on August 28] the cops seized his phone, bundled him into a vehicle and spirited him to some unknown place.” Four days later, police contacted his distraught family to say Amir was ill and that they should take him to a hospital. “We rushed to the police station, where we were handed a semi-conscious Amir,” his brother continues, “He was beaten up mercilessly, and his body was full of bruises.” While en route to the hospital, Amir told Sunny that six officials, two inspectors and four constables, had tortured him for four days. “He told us that the police officials had urinated on him while cursing him for being a Christian and tried to force him to confess to the crime.” Sunny also noted that all other employees who were questioned regarding the theft were released “without a scratch,” and that his brother “was subjected to severe torture because he was a poor Christian whom police believed could be coerced into a false confession….”

“But my brother was innocent, and he refused to admit to something that he had not done, which further infuriated his interrogators. They increased the intensity of the violence, also subjecting him to electric shocks.”

Two hours after arriving in the hospital Amir succumbed to his injuries and died. A post-mortem report indicated broken ribs and visible torture marks on the hands, arms, back, and feet. The murdered Christian is survived by a wife and two sons, aged 7 and 2-weeks-old.

In a separate incident, also in Pakistan, three Muslim men — Muhammad Naveed, Muhammad Amjad, and Abdul Majeed — participated in the murder of two Christian brothers, Javaid and Suleman Masih [No relation to Amir and Sunny Masih. Masih is a common Christian name in Pakistan]. According to Javaid’s widow:

“For over a year, we have been experiencing and smelling hatred against us by our Muslim neighbors. Often their women discussed and passed insulting remarks against Christians. However, keeping our safety in view, we always kept quite [sic] and never replied…. The Muslim neighbors did not like our van, which carries a holy cross inside, to be parked next to their door. They often criticized it.”

Javaid’s 17-year-old son continued: “Naveed, one of the Muslim family members, was trying to put some scratches on the wind-screen of my uncle’s van on the incident day. When I tried to stop him, he reacted in anger stating ‘whenever I step out of my house, I see this hanging stuff (holy cross) in the van – which I don’t want to see.’ He pointed out the cross in an insulting way. ‘Therefore, you must remove it,’ he ordered.”

Soon thereafter, both brothers “left their house to visit a relative in the neighborhood,” Javaid’s widow resumes; “they were suddenly attacked in front of their house by the two Muslims with knives. Each received 5 – 8 attacks, which resulted into their deaths. The father of the two Muslims was provoking his sons and chanting loudly, ‘don’t spare, kill all of these Chooras!'” (Chooras is a derogatory word used for Christians in Pakistan.) Javaid is survived by his wife and four children (aged 10 to 17). Suleman was recently married; he and his wife were expecting their first child just a few weeks after his murder.

Violence against and Abuse of Christians
Philippines: In the early hours of September 6, an explosion occurred in the marketplace of a predominantly Christian area in the south of the country; several people were injured. The Islamic State claimed responsibility. According to one report:

“The group issued a statement late on Saturday saying the motorcycle bombing had wounded seven Filipino Christians at a public market. It was the fourth blast in the area in 13 months, according to the Philippine military, which said a militant group operating in the mostly Christian city of Isulan in the province of Sultan Kudarat was among the suspects…. [T]hree incidents in the past year authorities said were suicide bombings by militants linked to the Islamic State.”

Burkina Faso: “Christians … are currently being exterminated or expelled from their villages by Muslim extremists,” a September 18 report noted. Speaking on condition of anonymity, a local source said that the militants sometimes give Christians a chance to convert to Islam; he referred to it as “part of a program by the jihadists who are deliberately sowing terror, assassinating members of the Christian communities and forcing the remaining Christians to flee after warning them that they will return in three days’ time—and that they do not wish to find any Christians or catechumens still there.” He elaborated on the recent experiences of the village of Hitté:

“At the beginning of September, 16 men arrived in the village, intercepting the villagers who were returning from the fields. Some of the men forced the people to enter the church where they threatened the Christians and ordered them to leave their homes in the next three days, while others set fire to whatever they found in their path. Now Hitté no longer has any Christians and any catechumens.”

He also made an observation that has been made of militants in Nigeria: “Weapons like these [those used by the Muslim invaders] are not made in Burkina Faso. We know that the arms are supplied by international organizations. We are calling for the removal of these weapons, so that peace can return to Burkina Faso…. The situation is critical.”

Egypt: Unknown persons hurled bricks at Marina Sami Rageb, a Christian woman, as she exited her church. The 21-year-old medical student’s skull was fractured from the assault and she suffered a hemorrhage. Little else is known about the incident or assailant(s). According to the report:

“This type of incident, unfortunately, is common place [sic] in Egypt. Christian women are not religiously compelled to cover their hair, but are constantly pressured to do so by their Muslim peers. Uncovered women are frequently targeted for harassment, and even attacks. This underlying threat greatly impacts their ability to walk freely in Egypt and to choose their clothing preference.”

One woman comments that “In Egypt, there are a lot of security threats in the streets. But I always avoid walking in the radical Muslim districts or areas, just preferring the main streets.” “I always wear long clothes,” explained another Christian woman. “In the streets, I always avoided dealing with the extremists or the radical Muslims.”

Pakistan: On September 16, Muhammad Ramiz and four other Muslim men kidnapped a 14-year-old Christian girl, Samra Bibi, from her home while her family was away, “in what is but the latest in a long series of kidnappings and forced conversions of underaged minority girls, often obtained under threat and after sexual violence,” the report adds. Samra was subsequently forced to convert to Islam and to marry her abductor. Upon learning what happened, her family rushed to the local police, who refused to open the case and instead mocked and insulted the distraught family. After two days of continued pleading from local Christian leaders and the family, police arrested Muhammad — only to release him an hour later, in part due to pressure from Islamic clerics. According to Samra’s father:

“Muhammad Ramiz had long set his sights on Christian girls and teased them. When they told him to stop, he used abusive language against them. When we were not at home, he abducted our underage girl. About ten days have passed and no one has been arrested.”

Discussing this and other similar incidents, a human rights activist said, “According to the law, no minor girl can be converted to any other religion but here no one has courage to challenge the radicals who are committing such crimes.” Another family representative said:

“Sometimes courts seem to be more supportive of perpetrators…. For example, in Samra’s case, the girl is 14, a juvenile who cannot be married; yet police deliberately wrote in their report that she is between 15 and 16 years. We will also challenge this aspect during the trial.”

Attacks on and Hostility for Muslim Converts to Christianity

United Kingdom: Around mid-September, police announced that they would be taking no action against a Muslim man in Preston, Lancashire who had earlier threatened to sodomize any Muslim who dares convert to Christianity. Zaheer Hussain, 41, made a video, which subsequently went viral, while chatting with a laughing companion. Speaking into the camera, Hussain said:

“Bro, listen… any motherf**er wants to convert to f**king Christianity, we’re both gonna f**k you up the a**, you under-f**king-stand? … We’re gonna f**ck you up the a** [moves his pelvis in a mock-sexual act]…. Why you f**king converting for, you motherf**kers? Huh? Why you f**cking — why would you want to become Christian? You f**king baptizing sh*t motherf**kers. Ah [mocking sound] ‘in the Lord of Jesus’…”

The above was spoken in English, of a sort, though extended portions of his tirade were in a foreign (probably Pakistani) language. The Christian woman from Preston who reported Hussain to police said:

“After seeing that video, it frightens me now to identify myself as a Christian to someone that I don’t know.

“It’s sad that I have to hide my religion. This man’s dangerous views on something so normal like people changing religions is unacceptable.

“His threats to sexually assault those who convert to Christianity is the heart of hate speech.”

Despite the UK’s anti-hate-speech laws, police took no action, even though, as one report noted:”Hussain’s generous treatment by the authorities contrasts sharply with that meted out to Scottish comedian Markus Meechan … who was arrested, charged, and convicted in a trial without a jury for causing gross offence with a viral video in which he trained his girlfriend’s pug dog to imitate the “least cute thing that I could think of, which is a Nazi.'”

Uganda: After the Muslim-in-laws of a widowed mother learned that she had converted to Christianity, they attacked her children and her, and drove them out from their home. 54-year-old Lezia Nakayiza’s problems began when her eight-year-old “told one of the relatives of the wonderful choir at church, and that we have been attending the church since March. This, she said, “was the beginning of our persecution”. It was not long before a “Christian neighbor informed me that the family was planning to attack us.” Soon after, and “by the light from moonlight, I peeped through the window and saw many people approaching our house with sticks and other weapons with loud noise from the animals’ shed.” She heard them shouting, “Away with this infidel!” Nakayiza and her children managed to escape from the backdoor. Afterwards, “We walked on foot for two hours and arrived at the church compound around 11 p.m., and we were received by the pastor.” On the following day, the pastor learned of the “huge destruction” her deceased husband’s brothers visited on her home, including “five cows and six sheep killed, iron sheets pulled down, windows and doors destroyed…. The family has to be relocated to another place,” the pastor added.

“Life for them is so hard. The children are out of school. They are very fearful of their lives. Even the church is at risk from the relatives who are radical Muslims. Our church is still too small to support the family.”

Last reported, Nakayiza was offering to wash people’s clothes and work their land to earn enough for the basic necessities of her children, four of whom are aged 15, 13, 11, and 8. “What we are going through at the moment is almost unbearable,” she said.

Iran: The Islamic republic denied two sons (17 and 15) of an imprisoned Christian pastor their high school diplomas, until such time that they complete Islamic education first. Their father, Yousef Nadarkhani, had made headlines in 2009, when he was arrested for protesting Iran’s educational requirement that all students study the Koran. The government responded by arresting him, a convert to Christianity, and charging him with the death penalty for apostasy. Due to international pressure, he was released in 2012—only to be arrested again in 2016. He is currently serving a 10-year sentence.

Contempt for Churches and Crosses
Turkey: “A local municipality in Trabzon (northern Turkey) has ruled that architectural elements of houses which resemble crosses will not be tolerated,” says a report:

“This decision follows an investigation which opened last December following complaints that the balconies of certain villas in the village resembled crosses. Photos show that houses had two levels and a cross shape divided the houses into four quadrants. Multiple complaints from primarily local Arab families led the houses to be destroyed on the basis of their architecture incorporating the cross…. [T]he situation is not unusual. In other locations, such as Gaziantep and Ankara, buildings have been renovated so that the cross shaped architecture is no longer visible.”

Separately, on September 18, a hooded man approached and threatened the Church of St. Paul in Antalya, Turkey. The incident occurred as representatives from three churches were meeting together, in part to prepare for celebrations of the 20th anniversary of their cultural center’s founding. According to the report,

“The man became verbally abusive, and made threats of physical attacks. The identity of the man is unknown, and he was careful to keep his face hidden from security cameras. … The man was shouting that he would take great pleasure in destroying the Christians, as he viewed them as a type of parasitism on Turkey. Police are investigating the incident. Hate speech is one of the primary challenges facing Turkish Christians, who are often viewed as traitors to their country since they have left Islam. While violent persecution attacks are rare, the increase of hate speech throughout Turkey does cause alarm of what it may foreshadow in the future.”

A separate study published in Armenian in September found that there were a total of 6,517 incidents of hate speech in Turkish media in 2018. The two peoples most targeted were Jews and Armenians, followed by Syrians, Greeks, and other Christian groups.

Iran: The government removed tax exemption status from all non-Muslim institutions. According to one report,

“The Tehran City Council will no longer consider churches and synagogues as eligible for tax exemption… Before this decision, these non-Islamic institutions were eligible for tax exemption so long as they were purely religious in nature. The city’s decision has been heavily criticized by Assyrian [Christian] parliamentarians… Iran’s constitution recognizes the freedom of religious practice only for those who can prove that their families belonged to certain non-Muslim faiths prior to the 1979 revolution. These [sic] means that, technically, Assyrian and Armenian Christians should have some (albeit limited) freedom of religious expression. The reality, however, is that Iran does not follow its own laws. All Christian groups, as well as other religious minorities, face heavy persecution from the authorities.”

Algeria: Authorities shut down two more church buildings. On September 24, eight police officers arrived at the Church of Boghni, and sealed off the doors and windows of the Protestant church. “I was surprised when one of the police officers contacted me to meet them at the site where our church is,” Pastor Chergui explained. “I had not received any notice; they went straight to proceed with the closure by sealing. They could have warned us before; why didn’t they?” The building had served two separate churches—Pastor Chergui’s congregation of 190 members, and another Protestant church of nearly 200 members from a neighboring village. Police left a note explaining that they closed down the building because it was being “illegally used … to celebrate non-Muslim worship.” A separate report discussing this same closure elaborates on the law being cited:

“Since November 2017, the government has been engaged in a systematic campaign against Christians. EPA-affiliated churches [the Protestant Church of Algeria] have been challenged to prove that they have licenses according to the requirement of a 2006 ordinance regulating non-Muslim worship. These regulations stipulate that all places of non-Muslim worship must be licenced. However, the government has yet to issue any licence for a church buildings [sic] under this ordinance, ignoring applications from churches to regularise their status in accordance with the ordinance.

“This closure raises the number of sealed church buildings affiliated with the EPA, to eight. Another four church groups have been ordered to cease all activities. In at least two cases, authorities have pressured the landlords renting to churches to deny Christians access to the premises.”

Separately, on September 26 — just two days after the closure of the Church of Boghni — authorities sealed off another church which had served 70, mostly elderly, people; it also functioned as a Bible school. “They told us that they are giving us time to clear useful objects out before they come back to seal it,” church leader Ali Zerdoud said the day before. “I can only say one thing: This is an injustice.”

General Discrimination against Christians
Egypt: Coptic Solidarity, a human rights group, took several initiatives in September — particularly by contacting the Fédération Internationale de Football Association, better known as “FIFA” — to draw attention to the fact that Christian soccer players in Egypt are regularly discriminated against. Although Christians are about 10 percent of Egypt’s population, not a single player on the national and reserves teams is a Christian, Coptic Solidarity noted in a September 17 letter sent to the Normalization Committee of the Egyptian Football Association, a portion of which follows:

CS has received dozens of reports of discrimination from Coptic footballers in Egypt, indicating systematic discrimination against them based solely on faith, which prevents them from reaching the highest levels of competition. In response, CS published a report titled Discrimination Against Copts in Egyptian Sport Clubs, which we also submitted to FIFA by email and via the online complaints mechanism.

The report contains an overview of the widespread discrimination against Copts in football including ample sources and testimonies by moderate Muslims corroborating reality of the ongoing discrimination. It also includes a sampling of 25 of the cases reported to Coptic Solidarity by Coptic footballers.

The Egyptian Olympic Mission to Brazil in 2016 was completely devoid of Copts, and the same applies to the Egyptian national team at the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Not a single Copt can be found on either the main team or the reserve. There are currently 540 players in the top-flight soccer clubs in Egypt, and that number includes only one Coptic footballer.

Canada: The Immigration and Refugee Board sought to deport a refugee family — a mother and three children — that had fled their native country of Nigeria after they were attacked and threatened with death for leaving Islam and converting to Christianity. According to a spokesperson for the family:

“They ran because her mother wrote her [daughter] a letter saying that she is very disappointed that she is a Christian, but she must run because her father wants to kill [her] to become higher in the organization.”

According to Randy Lorenz, of Canadian Aid to Persecuted Christians:

“They face a ‘fatwa’ (a pronouncement of death) against them for converting to Christianity from Islam. They believe they face certain death if they are returned to Nigeria. They are quite fearful.”

According to LifeSiteNews: “Ironically, both Hephzibah and Rejoice [two of the children, 14 and 10 respectively] were featured in a CBC News photograph with Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau, with an accompanying caption saying they were his supporters. In reality, they and a spokesperson for the family had delivered a plea to Trudeau in person when he appeared in Niagara-on-the-Lake last month.”

Supporters of the family said the government was not taking the time to establish the family’s humanitarian status or perform a proper risk assessment. “They’re trying to boot [them] out of the country before then.” The family’s current status is unclear.

Raymond Ibrahim, author of the new book, Sword and Scimitar, Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center, and a Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

About this Series
While not all, or even most, Muslims are involved, persecution of Christians by extremists is growing. The report posits that such persecution is not random but rather systematic, and takes place irrespective of language, ethnicity, or location.

© 2019 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The post ريموند إبراهيم: تقرير عن اضطهاد المسيحيين لشهر أيلول/20019/هناك فرح لدى البعض في تدمير المسيحيين/Raymond Ibrahim: The Great Pleasure in Destroying Christians… The Persecution of Christians, September 2019 appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

إيران… بيت الداء ورأس الدواء منذ 1979
إياد أبو شقرا/الشرق الأوسط/17 تشرين الثاني/2019

إيران… أزمات متراكمة وراء مظاهرات الوقود
د. جبريل العبيدي/الشرق الأوسط/17 تشرين الثاني/2019

المركب الإيراني يغرق بكل حمولته
سوسن الشاعر/الشرق الأوسط/17 تشرين الثاني/2019

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إيران… بيت الداء ورأس الدواء منذ 1979
إياد أبو شقرا/الشرق الأوسط/17 تشرين الثاني/2019
ما أبعدَ الهوةَ بين قول الصحابي الجليل أبي ذر الغفاري: «عجبتُ لمن لا يجدُ قوتَ يومِه كيف لا يخرجُ على الناسِ شاهراً سيفَه!»، وقول حسن نصر الله أمين عام حزب الله: «نحنا يا خيي، على راس السطح، موازنة حزب الله ومعاشاته ومصاريفه وأكله وشربه وسلاحه وصواريخه من الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران. تمام؟ ما حدا إلو علاقة بها الموضوع…!». بل قوله في مناسبة أخرى ما معناه أنه «ما دام لدى إيران أموال فلدينا أموال»، وفي مناسبة ثالثة تطوّعه بدفع أجور موظفي الدولة إذا عجزت الدولة عن ذلك!
لا تناقض أكبر من هذا بين وجهين للثقافة السياسية للتشيّع. بين نقاء مدرسة الصحابة الذين رفضوا الفساد والفاسدين والاستكبار والمستكبرين، وعنجهية وصلف من شوّهوا منذ 1979 تراثاً متكاملاً وثقافة عريقة وهوية راسخة. بين صدق الزهد النظيف النية واللسان والكف، ورفع شعارات المظلومية والعدل والدفاع عن المستضعفين زوراً… من أجل استخدامها سلاحاً للثأر والحقد والفتنة والهيمنة.
اليوم عندما تثور مدن إيران فإنها تثور لسبب مفهوم هو الذي تكلم عنه أبو ذر، الزاهد النقي الشجاع الذي ما كان يخشى في الحق لومة لائم.
والحقيقة أن الشيعي الإيراني الجائع والمظلوم في سيرجان وأصفهان وكرج ليس أقل أو أكثر شيعية من العراقي ابن كربلاء والحلة والناصرية وساحة التحرير في بغداد، وهو لا ينافس الشيعي اللبناني في كفر رمان وصور والنبطية على «شيكات» السفارات من أجل التآمر على «مقاومة» ما أطلقت رصاصة واحدة على إسرائيل منذ 2006… بشهادة الرئيس اللبناني ميشال عون!
إن ما نشهده اليوم في لبنان والعراق تتردد أصداؤه في إيران، والسبب الأصلي هو لقمة العيش وفرص العمل، والمجتمع السليم المتسامح، بمنأى عن فساد يزرعه سلاح «مافيا» تتستر بالدين، وتقتل عشوائياً، وتفتك بمجتمعاتها مستخدمة آفات الانغلاق والتعصب وافتعال العداوات وترويج المخدرات.
التقارير الواردة من إيران، منذ سنوات، كانت تتحدث عن الأمراض الاجتماعية التي تتفشى في النسيج الإيراني بينما يُقاد المجتمع الشاب على الرغم منه إلى المجهول. كانت تكشف عن تقصير مخيف وسوء إدارة معيب في تسيير المرافق العامة، ومعاناة صامتة خلف المشاريع الميليشياوية المافياوية التي تتكامل فيها سطوة السلاح مع الفساد المالي، وتعمم في كل مكان صُدّرت إليه التجربة الخمينية – الخامنئية. في كل مكان زُرع نموذج الحرس الثوري، وقمعه الدموي، ونهبه المنظم لثروات الدول والشعوب التي يهيمن عليها.
ما فعله ويفعله حزب الله في لبنان يعرفه اللبنانيون جيداً. يعرفونه منذ رفض التعاون مع المحكمة الدولية المشكَّلة للتحقيق في اغتيال رفيق الحريري وشهداء الانتفاضة على هيمنة طهران وراء «واجهة» الجهاز الأمني السوري – اللبناني قبل عام 2005… وحتى اليوم الذي ينهى الحزب فيه ويأمر ويهدّد ويخوّن من خلف سلطة صنعها لتكون نموذجه لمشروع «حلف الأقليات».
أيضاً السوريون على دراية كافية بما فعله الحزب داخل سوريا، بموجب التكليف الشرعي من طهران، والتنظيم التنسيقي والإسنادي من «فيلق القدس» في الحرس الثوري الإيراني وميليشياته الطائفية العراقية والأفغانية والباكستانية.
وها هي قد زالت الغشاوة في العراق الآن، بعد طي صفحة «فزاعة داعش» التي استفاد منها أتباع نظام طهران طويلاً، فحوّلوا بلدهم إلى تابع صاغر يُدار بنظام «التحكم عن بُعد» من طهران، و«شرعنوا» سلاح ميليشياتهم في جيش رديف خارجي الولاء يتحدّى – بمجرّد وجوده – مكانة الجيش الوطني. واللافت، أن الانتفاضة هذه المرة ما أتت من الموصل الذبيح ولا الفلوجة المضطهَدة… بل من صميم البيئة الشيعية. من كربلاء والنجف، والحلة والناصرية، والبصرة والعمارة.
لقد انتهت الكذبة الكبرى، وانتهى معها الخوف!
من لبنان والعراق… إلى إيران من شمالها إلى جنوبها ومن شرقها إلى غربها، ما عاد ممكناً التعايش بين الجوع والفساد.
لا يعقل في بلد يعجّ بالثروات الطبيعية مثل إيران، ويمتلك رابع أضخم احتياطي نفط في العالم، أن يعاني من أزمة وقود، وأن تهرب قيادته من معالجة الحاجات الملحة لشعبه البالغ تعداده 82 مليون نسمة بالمغامرات الخارجية، وأن تنفق مافياته الميليشياوية موارد البلاد على حلم هيمنة نووية بينما يقرُّ رئيس البلاد بأن 60 مليون مواطن يحتاجون للدعم الحكومي، وأن تسيطر مؤسسات الحرس الثوري على ثلث الناتج الإجمالي لاقتصاد البلاد.
كذلك لا يقبل المنطق أن يرتضي بلد كلبنان، ازدهر منذ استقلاله بفضل اقتصاد الخدمات والسياحة ويتمتع بإمكانات زراعية وتجارية وثقافية متميزة، بالاستسلام لـ«اقتصاد مقاومة» لا تقاوم، ويسكت بسببها عن حرمانه من الاستثمارات الخارجية ويقبل بأن تهجره خيرة إمكاناته، ويستسلم للهيمنة الميليشياوية على مؤسساته الحكومية المدنية والأمنية.
ولا يختلف الوضع كثيراً في العراق. ومثلما تتطاير تهم الفساد والنهب المحميّين ميليشياوياً في لبنان، كذلك تتداول التقارير أرقاماً خيالياً تصل إلى مليارات الدولارات عن ثروات يقال إن شخصيات النظام العراقي النافذة جمعتها من الصفقات المشبوهة منذ عام 2003.
صحيح أن هناك ضغطاً اقتصادياً خارجياً على المنظومة الميليشياوية – المافياوية للحرس الثوري الإيراني وامتداداته يتمثل بالعقوبات الأميركية، لكن المشكلة تبدأ أساساً من فكر هذه المنظومة وسلوكياتها. ذلك أن أولوية أي نظام سياسي، في أي مكان وزمان، يفترض أن تكون مصلحة الإنسان أو المواطن. ومن ثم، فمهما كانت النيات أو المصالح الجانبية أو الاعتبارات السياسية لمكونات السلطة، تفقد أي سلطة مبرر وجودها إذا خذلت هذا المواطن.
في الدول المتقدمة، وفّرت الديمقراطية المسؤولة للمواطن فرصة توصيل صوته. ومن ثم، تغيير أولئك الذين فوَّضهم إذا هم خذلوه أو عجزوا عن تحقيق ما يصبو إليه. كذلك وفر التسامح وتقبل التعددية المجال للتعايش من دون قهر أو قمع.
لكن النموذج الخميني – الخامنئي خذل الإيرانيين ونكب جيرانهم، حتى اتفق كل متابع رصين على أن أي تغيير في المنطقة يجب أن يشمل التغيير في إيران.
التغيير في قلب طهران هو الضَّمانة للتغيير الآمن والإيجابي في المشرق العربي كلِّه.

إيران… أزمات متراكمة وراء مظاهرات الوقود
د. جبريل العبيدي/الشرق الأوسط/17 تشرين الثاني/2019
النظام الإيراني المأزوم داخلياً وخارجياً، لم يعد يواجه مظاهرات الدول التي تعبث فيها أذرعه الميليشياوية كلبنان والعراق، فقد أصبح يواجه الغضب الداخلي المكبوت والمتفاقم، فالمظاهرات الشعبية الإيرانية الساخطة وقودها الفقر والجوع والبطالة وغلاء المعيشة، وليس «المندسين» و«العملاء» والشيطان الأكبر، شماعات النظام الإيراني المتكررة في كل أزمة تواجهه، المشكلة داخلية مطلقة وليست مؤامرة خارجية. فالمظاهرات ووفق وكالة الصحافة الفرنسية «كانت بين الكبيرة في مدينة سيرجان والمتفرقة في مدن مشهد (شمال) وبيرجند (شرق) وبندر عباس (جنوب) وكذلك في غشسارات والأهواز وعبدان وخرمشهر وماهشهر جنوب غربي إيران»، مما يؤكد أن الأزمة متفاقمة وليست محدودة، وأن المظاهرات شرارتها ارتفاع أسعار الوقود، ولكنها نتيجة أزمات أخرى مكبوتة ومقموعة يعاني منها الشعب الإيراني منذ صعود نظام «ولاية الفقيه» زمن الخميني إلى زمن خامنئي، الذي دأب على استخدام العصا الغليظة لقمع المتظاهرين من خلال قوات الأمن الباسيج والحرس الثوري، أذرع النظام الإيراني للحفاظ على البقاء في حكم إيران وقمع شعبها. ارتفاع أسعار الوقود هي القشة التي قسمت ظهر البعير، حيث رفعت أسعاره بنسبة 50 في المائة أو أكثر، فإيران التي تعاني نسبة تضخم أكثر من 40 في المائة حالياً، ونسبة النمو تكاد تكون معدومة، وبطالة وعقوبات اقتصادية خانقة، جميعها تجعل خزينة الحكومة فارغة، والبلاد غارقة في مستنقع البطالة التي تجاوزت 15 في المائة، وتضخم مالي في ازدياد مطرد، في بلد يعتبر منتجاً رئيسياً للنفط.
رفع أسعار الوقود، والزعم بأن العائد سيمنح للشعب الفقير، هي أكذوبة تؤكد عجز الحكومة الغنية، وأنها فقط قامت برمي المشكلة من حضنها إلى حضن الشعب الفقير.
الرئيس حسن روحاني هو رجل أمن في ثوب رجل «دين»، ولهذا يعالج الأزمة الاقتصادية في إيران بشكل أمني من خلال القمع والاعتقال، وحتى استخدام القوة المفرطة بالقتل، واستهداف المتظاهرين، الذين سقط الكثير منهم بين قتيل وجريح. أزمات إيران ليست في الوقود، بل متراكمة، وازداد تفاقمها بعد العقوبات التي أمر بها الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب بموجب استراتيجية «الضغط القصوى» ضد النظام في إيران، حيث أنهى الإعفاءات التي كانت تسمح لبعض الدول بشراء النفط الإيراني. العقوبات الدولية على النظام الإيراني، في مقابل الركود الاقتصادي الإيراني، والبطالة، وازدياد حجم الفساد والفاسدين بين أنصار النظام ومؤيديه. النظام الإيراني زاد مأزومه منذ أن أعلن استئناف تخصيب اليورانيوم بمنشأة فوردو، في انتهاك للاتفاق النووي، الأمر الذي جعل النظام في حالة تصادم مع النظام الدولي، وهو غير متماسك داخلياً، حتى في جغرافيته التي صنعها بمقاييسه. فإيران التي ابتلعت دولة الأحواز العربية، بعد تهجير سكانها العرب واستبدالهم بهدف تغيير ديمغرافية المنطقة، والتي تُعد امتداداً للجغرافيا العربية، وقمعت سكانها، لدرجة منعهم من الحديث حتى بلغتهم العربية، واستخدامها في شوارع الأحواز، التي كانت بالأمس القريب تسمى عربستان، أي بلاد العرب. في إيران حتى «الإصلاحيون» خيبوا آمال الشارع فيهم، واتضح أنهم جزء من نظام إيراني، ومجرد شخوص في جوقة النظام المستبد المتغطرس، صاحب أكبر ملف انتهاكات حقوق الإنسان، وإعدامات على الهوية والمعتقد في الشوارع. الأزمة الإيرانية كبيرة ومتفاقمة، وإذا لم يفق النظام الإيراني من غيبوبته، وانفصاله العقلي عن الواقع، ستكون النتائج كارثية، وإن كانت الأزمة ستنتهي لا محال بزواله، وإن طال الزمن، ونأمل ألا تنتهي بفاتورة دماء كبيرة مؤلمة للشعب الإيراني.

المركب الإيراني يغرق بكل حمولته
سوسن الشاعر/الشرق الأوسط/17 تشرين الثاني/2019
قواعد اللعبة التي اعتمد عليها نظام الحكم في العراق ولبنان قائمة على المحاصصة الحزبية الطائفية، وهذه القواعد بدأت تهتز وتتحرك الأرض من تحت أقدام اللاعبين فيها. إن إصرار «اللاعبين» على اللعب بالأوراق ذاتها رغم الرفض الواضح والصريح لها من قبل المتظاهرين، يدل على أن الأحزاب السياسية غير مدركة تماماً للمتغيرات التي تجري على أرض الواقع، بدليل إصرارهم على استخدام الأوراق التقليدية ذاتها في استرضاء المتظاهرين، معتقدين أن المسألة تنحصر في تغير الوجوه فحسب! هناك أكثر من 30 حزباً عراقياً وأكثر من 90 حزباً لبنانياً اعتمدوا في السنوات الأخيرة على تشكيل حكومات وعلى نظام انتخابي وتوزيع مقاعد انتخابية بناءً على المحاصصة الطائفية، والأهم هو عدم تشكيل أي سلطة نيابية أو تنفيذية أو قضائية إلا بالتحالف مع وكلاء إيران، دون موافقة إيران يصعب على أي حزب سياسي أن يجد له موقعاً في السلطات الثلاث. ورضخت جميع الأحزاب السياسية لهذا الواقع واستسلمت لتلك المعادلة؛ ولذلك تحالفت الأحزاب المنسوبة زوراً (للمدنية) مع حزب الدعوة في العراق و«حزب الله» في لبنان كي تجد لها منفذاً في السلطات الثلاث، ورمت بتاريخها وبمبادئها وقيمها المدنية عرض الحائط وقبلت أن تكون حليفاً لحزب ديني يرتهن لقوى أجنبية. وسواء كان سلاح وكلاء إيران والتهديد به الذي كان مسلطاً على رؤوس تلك الأحزاب هو السبب، أو كانت الرغبة الحميمة في الوصول للسلطة هي التي دفعت أحزاباً كالتيار الوطني أو «14 آذار» للتغاضي أو السكوت عن ثيوقراطية وكلاء إيران، إلا أنه نهاية المطاف قبلت تلك الأحزاب بالتحالف ضمناً مع «حزب الله» الإيراني اللبناني، وكذلك فعلت الأحزاب العراقية (المدنية) أو الأحزاب (السنية) في العراق، الجميع حصل على مقاعد نيابية أو على حقائب وزارية بعد رضوخهم لوكلاء إيران في المنطقة.
فكذلك كان الوضع في العراق، حيث واجهت حكومة عادل عبد المهدي صعوبات شتى حين تشكيل الحكومة وصلت إلى حد التهديد بالاستقالة، لعجزه عن تعيين أي وزير مستقل، أي دون غطاء حزبي يحميه حتى لو كان فاسداً؛ لذلك غالبية المقاعد النيابية حظي بها الائتلاف الطائفي المدعوم من إيران وعلى رأسهم حزب الدعوة! ولولا استسلام الأحزاب المدنية في الدولتين للأمر الواقع الذي فرضه وكلاء إيران لما تمكن وكلاء إيران من السيطرة على الحكم طوال السنوات الخمس عشرة الماضية على أقل تقدير.
الجديد الذي يجب أن يقرأ بتمعن الآن من قبل هذه الأحزاب (المدنية)، أن وكلاء إيران فقدوا قواعدهم الشعبية، وأن المظاهرات العراقية واللبنانية تستمد زخمها هذه للمرة و – ربما للمرة الأولى – من أبناء الجنوب العراقي واللبناني، الجديد هو حجم التذمر العلني من قبل القاعدة الشعبية التي يستند إليها وكلاء إيران، الثورة جنوبية هذه المرة، وبمساندة شمالية، والفرق بين الثورتين أن الشمال السني اللبناني (طرابلس) خرج هو الآخر وانضم إلى جنوبه، في وحدة كسرت محرمات التابو الوطني وخرجت عن طوع المحاصصة الطائفية المفروضة عليهم.
ورغم أن المساندة ما زالت ضعيفة من المكون السني في الحالة العراقية رغم شعارات الوحدة العراقية، وما ذلك إلا لأن المناطق السنية ما زالت مثخنة بالجراح من بعد تعرضها للتهجير والقتل والتدمير سواء من «داعش» أو من الميليشيات الطائفية، إنما في نهاية المطاف رفع المتظاهرون العراقيون كما هم اللبنانيون شعارات الوحدة الوطنية التي تخطت حاجز المحاصصة الحزبية، ورفعوا شعارات تندد بالتدخل الإيراني وبالمطالبة بخروجه، المتظاهرون يصفعون وكلاء إيران صفعة قوية لأنها آتية من قواعدهم الشعبية هذه المرة، والتي باسمهم وباسم حمايتهم فرض وكلاء إيران شروطهم بالقوة، فإن لم تقرأ الأحزاب هذه المعطيات الجارية على أرض الواقع فإنهم سيكونون أول الخاسرين. فإذا اضفنا الواقع السياسي الدولي الذي يواجه إيران ويفرض عليها وعلى وكلائها العقوبات فإن عدم احتساب كل هذه الاعتبارات والاستمرار بتجاهلها والإصرار على اللعب بالأوراق القديمة ذاتها والتمسك بالمعادلة القديمة يعد انتحاراً سياسياً وموتاً دماغياً قد يطول.
المركب الإيراني بكل حمولته معرّض للغرق وركوب تلك الأحزاب في هذا المركب كان من الأساس استسلاماً لأمر واقع وإرغاماً رغم مخالفته لمبادئ وقيم تلك الأحزاب، فإن كان الأمر الواقع يتغير الآن، ما الذي يجبركم على الاستمرار إن لم يكن عدم إدراك ومحدودية ذكاء وضعف نظر وعجزاً عن قراءة المعطيات؟

The post إياد أبو شقرا: إيران هي بيت الداء ورأس لدواء منذ 1979/جبريل العبيدي: إيران وأزمات متراكمة وراء مظاهرات الوقود/سوسن الشاعر: المركب الإيراني يغرق بكل حمولته appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

Let Aoun, Nasrallah and Bassil be the ones to emigrate
بارعة علم الدين/اتركوا عون وباسيل ونصرالله يهاجروا من لبنان
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 17/ 2019

Michel Aoun’s depressingly out-of-touch interview last week — culminating in him disparagingly declaring “let them emigrate,” addressed at all Lebanese discontented with the miserable status quo — focused renewed popular anger against the president. A month after it began, the revolution accumulates momentum, energy and confidence with each passing week.

The nomination of Mohammed Safadi to head a new government reassured nobody that Lebanon’s sectarian governing framework has renounced its clientelistic instincts (Safadi has since withdrawn his candidacy anyway).

Protesters denounced the 75-year-old former finance minister as one of the corrupt elite’s more grotesque faces. “Choosing Mohammed Safadi for prime minister proves that the politicians who rule us are in a deep coma,” remarked one demonstrator.

No possible choice of Sunni prime minister can solve this crisis — the sectarian system is rotten to the core and must be abolished in its entirety. Saad Hariri is one of the few leaders to understand the depth of the popular anger; hence his insistence on only cooperating with a government entirely composed of technocrats.

Hariri was burnt by his participation in previous governments for the sake of consensus and civil peace — yet amounting to no more than a sticking plaster over a gaping wound.

Following his opportunistic embrace of the pro-Syria/Iran camp after his 2005 return from exile, Aoun became the cornerstone on which Hezbollah consolidated its dominance of the Lebanese state, effectively neutralizing Lebanon’s Christians as a potential counterweight to Iranian hegemony.

Aoun, at the age of 84, is disconnected from the realities of contemporary Lebanon. His son-in-law Gebran Bassil has been the real driving force behind efforts to cobble together a government behind the scenes and subvert the revolution’s momentum.

These labors reportedly included meetings with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to prepare the ground for a transition of power from Aoun to Bassil.

Yet Bassil is even more deeply loathed than Aoun — as attested by the unrepeatably rude chants from demonstrating crowds. Even among erstwhile Christian supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement, there is recognition that Aoun and Bassil stand guilty of facilitating Iran’s hostile takeover of their homeland.

This weekend’s sudden outbreak of protests across Iran over skyrocketing petrol prices, along with the sustained explosion of anger against Iranian meddling in Iraq, should be a salutary reminder to Nasrallah that the future disintegration of the Islamic Republic will cause the ground to disappear beneath his feet. Until recently, Hezbollah appeared omnipotent; yet, with each passing day of mass protests, Nasrallah is left scrabbling to adjust to new realities.

Ordinary people’s voices have been extinguished entirely in a state governed for the malign pleasure of oligarchic and foreign interests.

The Iranian protests already have many commonalities with the Lebanese and Iraqi uprisings, with economic grievances rapidly giving way to calls for “death to the dictator.”

Attempts by Iraqi and Lebanese protesters to directly communicate with each other indicate a way that citizens can capitalize on their common grievances — as they all ultimately desire an end to the detested ayatollahs’ regime.

Lebanon’s sectarianism and factionalism have set communities against each other, rendering the country a plaything of foreign powers, with France, the US and various regional states having their favored factional allies. However — as is the case with Syria and Iraq — Arab influence in Lebanon has lamentably withered away altogether in recent years.

Of all the foreign parties, it is Tehran that came to dominate the Lebanese arena through its chosen vehicle of Hezbollah, while exploiting clients like Aoun to monopolize the entire political system.

Instead of the sectarian system guaranteeing that all communities are represented, ordinary people’s voices have been extinguished entirely in a state governed for the malign pleasure of oligarchic and foreign interests. The Aoun-Bassil relationship is a further reminder of the feudal nature of Lebanon’s politics, with the same few families monopolizing power since pre-civil war days. How can anybody mistake this for democracy?

The civil war shattered Lebanon’s sense of collective national belonging. Recent protests herald the rebirth of this unified identity, the rejection of sectarianism, and an assertion of national sovereignty. The revolution’s first martyr, Alaa Abou Fakhr, has posthumously come to embody this patriotic mood, with his face appearing on huge murals and across social media, while the local school and the American University of Beirut have pledged to cover the costs of his bereaved children’s education.

Whether in Iran, Lebanon or Iraq, democracy only exists when people’s choices at the ballot box are meaningfully reflected in the composition and agenda of the administration. A nation state can only exist when people’s primary loyalties and affiliation are to the entire motherland and not to communities segmented along bitter sectarian divides or to foreign powerbrokers.

Aoun’s insulting retort about appointing independent technocrats — “Where can I find them?

On the moon?” — illustrates his blinkered detachment from the deep reserves of experienced, educated and dedicated figures that Lebanon can draw on when the crooks are forced to step aside.

Lebanon’s chronic crises and cronyism, generation after generation, have consistently impelled its finest minds to choose the uncertainties and rootlessness of exile. Rather than dismissively exhorting patriotic citizens to emigrate, future leaderships should offer their most outstanding citizens incentives to invest their energies, wealth and expertise in their homeland.

This is a nation capable of great things, if only protesters retain the courage of their convictions and follow through on this revolution to bring in a new generation of leaders dedicated to Lebanon’s well-being rather than their own.

If Nasrallah, Aoun, Bassil and others dislike this aspiration, then they know where they can go.

*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Pictures enclosed:
*Baria Alameddine with her daughter Amal.
*Baria with Daughter and son-inlaw Cloney

The post بارعة علم الدين/اتركوا عون وباسيل ونصرالله يهاجروا من لبنان/Baria Alamuddin: Let Aoun, Nasrallah and Bassil be the ones to emigrate appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

Detailed LCCC English News Bulletin For November 18/2019

Click Here to read the whole and detailed LCCC English News Bulletin for November 18/2019

The post Detailed LCCC English News Bulletin For November 18/2019 appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For November 17-18/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 32th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
November 17-18/2019

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 17-18/2019
Army Commander calls for “moving away from rumors aimed at creating a rift between citizens and the military institution”
FPM: Hariri’s policy is based on the principle of “I and no one else” as head of cabinet
Bank Employees’ Syndicates Union: Strike continues tomorrow, resumption of operations depends on outcome of Banks Association meeting on Monday
Rahi supports Lebanon’s Intifada
Hajj Hassan says popular movement’s demands a top priority, government formation a pressing need to achieve these demands
Report: Efforts Underway to Convince Hariri to Lead New Govt.
Independent candidate Melhem Khalaf wins Beirut Bar Association
Protest Movement-Backed Candidate Elected Head of Bar Association
FPM Nominee Pulls from Bar Association Vote over ‘Situation’ in Lebanon
Lebanon’s outgoing PM Hariri blasts president’s party over delays
Hariri Slams FPM over Safadi Nomination Controversy
Lebanon: Hariri Blames Aoun’s Party Over Delay in Forming Cabinet
Lebanon’s outgoing PM blasts president’s party over delays
Lebanon’s Safadi withdraws candidacy for PM, urges Hariri for post
Safadi gives up Lebanon PM bid under protest pressure/He expressed hope Hariri would be reinstated.
Lebanon: Safadi Withdraws Candidacy for PM
Safadi to Testify over Zaitunay Bay, Voices Surprise over Hariri Statement
Safadi asks Judge Ibrahim to open an investigation into case of Zaitunay Bay
US embassy in Lebanon ‘supports’ peaceful protests
U.S. Embassy in Lebanon Denies Link to ‘Revolution Bus’
Qaouq: Some Planting Mines in Way of Govt. Formation
Arab Banks Union to convene in Cairo upcoming December 8 & 9

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 17-18/2019
Army Commander calls for “moving away from rumors aimed at creating a rift between citizens and the military institution”
NNA/November 17/2019
Army Chief, General Joseph Aoun, called Sunday for staying away from rumors that only serve to create a wedge between citizens and the army, and aim at misleading the public opinion.
“History will show that the Lebanese army saved Lebanon,” he underlined. Aoun’s words came as he inspected the military units deployed in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, in charge of maintaining security in wake of the ongoing popular movements in various areas. The tour included army regiments in Sarba, Naccash, Roumieh, Ras Beirut, Baabda Presidential Palace Road and Fayadieh Barracks. The Army Chief praised the efforts of the military units during these exceptional circumstances and the awareness they showed in dealing with the recent events, sparing the country any opportunity for trouble. “The Army is working and acting in the manner it deems fit,” he stressed.
General Aoun commended the “level of professionalism, discipline, high morality and courage demonstrated by the army in carrying out all the tasks entrusted to it with honor, sacrifice and loyalty in the face of challenges at all costs.”Addressing the military men, Aoun hailed their devotion and dedication to their oath in serving their country, and in proving that the military establishment is an umbrella for all citizens of the country, regardless of their orientations, affiliations or views. “You have preserved the rights of citizens, all citizens,” he emphasized. “The army, like all armies, is trained to face enemies and dangers, while the Lebanese army is currently carrying out the task of maintaining security at home before its citizens and people,” the Army Chief went on, stressing that the army is “responsible for the security of demonstrators and other citizens.” Aoun reiterated herein that road closures are not permissible acts, highlighting the fact that “freedom of movement is sacred in international conventions.” Pointing to the recent arrests, the Army Commander indicated that “these arrests included individuals who worked to create chaos and riots, and confronted the army and tried to prevent it from carrying out his mission,” adding that “they also included non-Lebanese citizens and others found to be in possession of drugs.” Aoun expressed his deep regret for the death of young Martyr Alaa Abu Fakhr. “The case is in the hands of the judiciary,” he said, noting that this incident was the only one to occur during a month of popular movements in Lebanon, whilst the situation is different in a number of countries that are experiencing similar events, where a large number of victims are falling. “This is what we are working to avoid,” he corroborated. The Army General concluded by calling for “maintaining utmost degrees of readiness and awareness in the face of the challenges lurking ahead of our country.”

FPM: Hariri’s policy is based on the principle of “I and no one else” as head of cabinet
NNA/November 17/2019
In an issued statement by the Free Patriotic Movement’s central media committee this evening, it criticized Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s policy, considering that it is based on the principle of “I and no one else” as head of government. “While the efforts of the Free Patriotic Movement were a platform to facilitate the process of establishing a rescue government, starting with reaching consensus over the new PM who can bring the Lebanese together in terms of economic and financial rescue away from political divisions, we were surprised by the statement issued by Caretaker PM Saad Hariri’s press office, which contained a series of fabrications and distortion of facts,” the FPM statement said. In light of the above, the Movement clarified that “the reasons for Lebanon’s difficult situation witnessed at this stage is due to the financial and economic policies and practices that have embraced the approach of corruption for 30 years, and which still persist till now.”The statement indicated that FPM provided all possible means to accelerate bridging the gap caused by the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri, by not rejecting any name put forward by Hariri.
The statement stressed that the Free Patriotic Movement’s utmost concern in the end is the formation of a government capable of stopping the financial collapse and preventing chaos and sedition in the country.
The FPM statement, thus, urged Hariri to rise above any political rivalry and combine efforts to form the new government. “We call on him [PM Hariri] to join us in the efforts to agree on a prime minister who is uniting of all the Lebanese…We say that there is still an opportunity for all of us to save the country, instead of continuing to slaughter it with bankruptcy and corruption,” the statement underlined.

Bank Employees’ Syndicates Union: Strike continues tomorrow, resumption of operations depends on outcome of Banks Association meeting on Monday
NNA/November 17/2019
In a statement by the Union of Bank Employees Syndicates Executive Council on Sunday, it indicated that their strike will continue tomorrow, noting that the resumption of operations depends on the outcome of the Banks Association’s meeting on Monday in terms of work mechanism. “The cessation of the strike requires first of all an atmosphere of safety in various work stations, especially in bank branches, to be achieved by the measures undertaken by the security forces,” the statement indicated. Meanwhile, the Executive Council commended the procedures announced by the Directorate General of the Internal Security Forces to ensure the safety of employees and customers in the banking sector, considering them “adequate and suifficient.”In this connection, the Council thanked Caretaker Interior Minister Raya El-Hassan and ISF Director General Imad Othman, for promptly responding to the Banks Association’s request in terms of providing the necessary security and safety measures upon the resumption of work in banks.

Rahi supports Lebanon’s Intifada
NNA/November 17/2019
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Beshara Boutros Rahi, called on Lebanese politicians during Sunday’s Mass service in Bkirki to “support and respect the peaceful intifada of the Lebanese youth.”Meanwhile, Rahi urged the demonstrators to “adhere to the code of ethics and respect the freedom of movement and stay away from conflicts.” He also prompted politicians to form a new government and rise above their personal interests and narrow calculations for the country’s sake.

Hajj Hassan says popular movement’s demands a top priority, government formation a pressing need to achieve these demands
NNA/November 17/2019
Head of the Baalbek-Hermel Parliamentary Bloc, MP Hussein Hajj Hassan, considered Saturday that the civil movement and its demands are a top priority, adding the formation of a new cabinet is an urgent necessity to realize these demands. Speaking at a political gathering organized by the Baalbek Municipalities Union at its headquarters, Hajj Hassan said: “The demands of the popular movement are rightful, for we are fed up of corruption, and we all suffer from wasted public money, absence of jobs and lack of efficiency and integrity.”He added: “At the municipal level, we also suffer from the confiscation of municipal responsibilities and decisions, in terms of construction and administrative decentralization, and delayed payment of dues.”The MP praised the civilized manner in which the people of Baalbek and Hermel took part in the uprising and voiced their demands. “We know how much the region is in dire need for developmental projects,” he said, highlighting the need for balanced development in all Lebanese areas.

Report: Efforts Underway to Convince Hariri to Lead New Govt.
Naharnet/November 17/2019
After the proposed nomination of Mohammed Safadi for the PM post was dropped under popular and political pressure, there is inclination to task caretaker PM Saad Hariri with forming the new government, ministerial sources close to the Presidency said. “The formula under which he might return to the post is being discussed,” the sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Sunday. And as sources close to Hariri said he is still insisting on the formation of a technocrat cabinet as a precondition for returning to the post, the ministerial sources noted that there are efforts to convince the caretaker PM of a format that he has recently rejected. The proposed solution calls for the formation of a government in which the four so-called sovereign portfolios – defense, interior, foreign affairs and finance – would be held by political figures. The rest of portfolios would go to technocrats.

Independent candidate Melhem Khalaf wins Beirut Bar Association elections
Georgi Azar/Annahar/November 17/2019
BEIRUT: Melhem Khalaf, a law professor at Saint Joseph university, has become the new head of the Beirut Bar Association after beating out the political ruling class’ candidate. Khalaf, an independent candidate, ran against Nader Gaspard, who was backed by the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces, Future Movement and Progressive Socialist Party.  In the first round, Khalaf was elected as a member of the Bar Association before securing a commanding majority in the second round to head the Beirut Bar Association. Khalaf is the first independent to head the association in recent years. “We hope this day will renew democracy within Lebanon’s institutions,” Khalaf said after his win.

Protest Movement-Backed Candidate Elected Head of Bar Association
Naharnet/November 17/2019
A candidate backed by the protest movement that is sweeping the country was on Sunday elected as head of the Beirut Bar Association, scoring a precious win for the nascent movement over the country’s established political parties. Lawyers who backed Melhem Khalaf erupted in joy and chanted “revolution, revolution” as the results were announced. Protest movement supporters also took to social media to celebrate the news as a dear victory that came as they marked one month since the beginning of their uprising. Khalaf also received votes from the opposition Kataeb Party as the defeated independent candidate, Nader Kaspar, was backed by the political parties of the ruling coalition, including al-Mustaqbal Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Progressive Socialist Party. Speaking after he was declared the winner, Khalaf saluted “the enthusiasts of democracy,” hoping democracy will renew all institutions.
“We want the institutions to be an immune fort for the protection of the country and its citizens, in the vein of the Bar Association,” Khalaf said. “The Bar Association has been the first fortress of freedoms for 100 years and it will always be,” he added. Khalaf and three other activists had in 1985 founded the prominent Lebanese NGO Offrejoie (Joy of Giving), with a declared mission of “mobilizing around social projects promoting the unity of the Lebanese people.” In 1982, Khalaf and three other volunteers of the Lebanese Red Cross assisted the wounded during the war. Horrified by what they saw, they wanted to act in favor of children suffering from the violence and misery of war, thus founding Offrejoie.

FPM Nominee Pulls from Bar Association Vote over ‘Situation’ in Lebanon
Naharnet/November 17/2019
The candidate of the Free Patriotic Movement for the post of president of the Beirut Bar Association, Georges Nakhle, announced Sunday that he withdrew from the race over “reasons related to the general situation in Lebanon.”
“I leave the full freedom to the colleagues who support me to choose the appropriate candidate,” he added. MTV later announced that those who were elected as members eligible to run for the chief post were Melhem Khalaf, Pierre Hanna, Saadeddine al-Khatib, Nader Kaspar and Ibrahim Musallem.
This year’s vote comes amid an unprecedented popular uprising in the country against the entire political class.

Lebanon’s outgoing PM Hariri blasts president’s party over delays
The Associated Press, Beirut/Sunday, 17 November 2019
Lebanon’s outgoing prime minister is harshly criticizing the party of the country’s president after weeks of delay in forming a new Cabinet. A statement released on Sunday by Saad Hariri’s office called the policies of Michel Aoun’s party “irresponsible.”Almost three weeks after Hariri resigned amid massive anti-government protests, Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs’ leaders to name a new premier. Nationwide demonstrations began on October 17 against new taxes amid a plunging economy. They’re now calling for the downfall of the political elite who have run the country since the 1975-90 civil war. Some major factions in Lebanon’s sectarian political system want to keep Hariri in the new government. But they want him to form a cabinet of politicians and technocrats. He’s insisting on only technocrats.

Hariri Slams FPM over Safadi Nomination Controversy
Naharnet/November 17/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Sunday harshly criticized the Free Patriotic Movement – the political party of President Michel Aoun — after weeks of delay in forming a new Cabinet. A statement released by Hariri’s office called the policies of the FPM “irresponsible” in connection with the controversy over the nomination for the premiership of ex-minister Mohammed Safadi. Below is the full text of an English-language statement issued by Hariri’s office: “Since former Minister Mohammad Safadi asked to withdraw his candidacy for the formation of the new government, the Free Patriotic Movement has been trying, either through statements from its deputies and officials or through media leaks, to hold Prime Minister Saad Hariri responsible for this withdrawal, under the pretext that he backed down on promises made to Minister Safadi and that this candidacy was only a maneuver to limit the possibility of forming a government to Prime Minister Hariri. In view of the persistence to make false accusations, the following points should be clarified: First: Reviewing the withdrawal statement of Minister Safadi is sufficient to show that he was sure of Prime Minister Hariri’s support for him and his best relationship with him. He also hoped that Prime Minister Hariri would be designated again, which totally contradicts the FPM’s version. It is also clear in the statement that Minister Safadi was sincere and transparent in announcing that he found difficulty in “forming a homogeneous government supported by all political parties that would enable it to take immediate rescue measures that would put an end to the economic and financial deterioration and respond to the aspirations of the people in the street”, which completely contradicts the allegations of the FPM and its officials.
Second: It was Minister Gebran Bassil who insistently proposed twice the name of Minister Safadi, which Prime Minister Hariri quickly agreed to, after Hariri’s proposals of names from the civil society, most notably Judge Nawaf Salam, had been repeatedly rejected. It is not surprising that Prime Minister Hariri approved the candidacy of Minister Safadi, as everyone knows their friendship that was translated in many political occasions. Third: Prime Minister Hariri does not maneuver, and does not seek to limit the possibility of forming a government to himself. He was the first to present alternative names to form a government. He was clear, from the first day of the government’s resignation, with all the representatives of the parliamentary blocs, that he does not evade any national responsibility, but national responsibility itself requires him to inform the Lebanese and the parliamentary blocs in advance that if he is named in the binding parliamentary consultations imposed by the constitution, he will only form a government of technocrats, based on his conviction that only such a government is capable of facing the severe and deep economic crisis through which Lebanon is going. Fourth, and finally: The policy of maneuvers and leaks and the attempt to score points adopted by the Free Patriotic Movement is an irresponsible policy in the major national crisis that our country is going through. If it had done a real review, it would have stopped such an irresponsible policy and its repeated attempts to infiltrate the government lineups, and the government would have been formed and would have begun to address the serious national and economic crisis. And perhaps our country wouldn’t have reached this point in the first place.”

Lebanon: Hariri Blames Aoun’s Party Over Delay in Forming Cabinet
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 November, 2019
Lebanon’s outgoing prime minister is harshly criticizing the party of the country’s president after weeks of delay in forming a new Cabinet. A statement released Sunday by Saad Hariri’s office called the policies of Michel Aoun’s party “irresponsible,” the Associated Press reported. Almost three weeks after Hariri resigned amid massive anti-government protests, Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs’ leaders to name a new premier. Nationwide demonstrations began on Oct. 17 against new taxes amid a plunging economy. They’re now calling for the downfall of the political elite who have run the country since the 1975-90 civil war. Some major factions in Lebanon’s sectarian political system want to keep Hariri in the new government. They want him to form a cabinet of politicians and technocrats. for his part, Hariri is insisting on only technocrats. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Lebanon slipped deeper into political crisis on Sunday after the withdrawal of a top candidate for prime minister fruther narrowed the chances of creating a government needed to enact urgent reforms. Mohammad Safadi, a former finance minister, withdrew his candidacy late on Saturday, saying it was too difficult to form a “harmonious” government with broad political support. Safadi was the first candidate who had appeared to win some consensus among Lebanon’s fractious sectarian-based parties since Hariri quit as prime minister on Oct. 29. However, protesters denounced the choice of Safadi, a prominent businessman and longtime politician they said was part of the elite they sought to oust. “We are in a deadlock now. I don’t know when it will move again. It is not easy,” said a senior political source. “The financial situation doesn’t tolerate any delay.”According to Reuters, another political source described efforts to form a new government as “back to square one.”

Lebanon’s outgoing PM blasts president’s party over delays
Associated Press/November 17/2019
BEIRUT: outgoing prime minister is harshly criticizing the party of the country’s president after weeks of delay in forming a new Cabinet. A statement released Sunday by Saad Hariri’s office called the policies of Michel Aoun’s party “irresponsible.”Almost three weeks after Hariri resigned amid massive anti-government protests, Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs’ leaders to name a new premier. Nationwide demonstrations began on Oct. 17 against new taxes amid a plunging economy. They’re now calling for the downfall of the political elite who have run the country since the 1975-90 civil war. Some major factions in Lebanon’s sectarian political system want to keep Hariri in the new government. But they want him to form a cabinet of politicians and technocrats. He’s insisting on only technocrats.

Lebanon’s Safadi withdraws candidacy for PM, urges Hariri for post
Reuters/Sunday, 17 November 2019
Former Lebanese finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy to be the next prime minister on Saturday, saying that he saw that it would have been difficult to form a “harmonious” cabinet supported by all parties. Safadi, 75, emerged as a candidate on Thursday when political sources and Lebanese media said three major parties had agreed to support him for the position. His decision to withdraw throws Lebanon’s push to form a government needed to enact urgent reforms back to square one in the face of unprecedented protests that prompted prime minister Saad Hariri to resign last month. Safadi said in a statement that he had decided to withdraw following consultations with political parties and a meeting on Saturday with Hariri. “It is difficult to form a harmonious government supported by all political sides that could take the immediate salvation steps needed to halt the country’s economic and financial deterioration and respond to the aspirations of people in the street,” the statement said. Protesters who took to the streets on Saturday denounced Safadi’s potential nomination, saying it ran counter to nationwide calls to oust a political elite they see him as part and parcel of. In the statement, Safadi thanked President Michel Aoun and Hariri for supporting his candidacy and said he hoped Hariri would return as premier to form a new government. Hezbollah and its ally Amal had agreed to back Safadi following a meeting with Hariri late on Thursday, according to Lebanese media and political sources, but no political party had since formally endorsed his candidacy. The two Shia groups, along with Aoun, a Maronite Christian, have sought for Hariri to return as premier but have demanded the inclusion of both technocrats and politicians in the new cabinet, while Hariri has insisted on a cabinet composed entirely of specialist ministers. The process for choosing a new premier requires Aoun to formally consult members of parliament on their choice for prime minister. He must designate whoever gets the most votes. Lebanon’s prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, according to its sectarian power-sharing system.

Safadi gives up Lebanon PM bid under protest pressure/He expressed hope Hariri would be reinstated.
The Arab Weekly/Sunday 17/11/2019
Lebanon’s former finance minister Mohammed Safadi has backed down from seeking to be the country’s new prime minister, after reports of his nomination sparked ire among demonstrators railing against the ruling elite. The wealthy 75-year-old businessman and former finance minister Safadi said Saturday it would be difficult to form a “harmonious” government in the country rocked by a month of unprecedented nationwide protests demanding radical reform. The tycoon said in a statement that he hoped outgoing prime minister Saad Hariri, who resigned on October 29 under pressure from the street, would be reinstated. Protesters, who see Safadi as emblematic of a corrupt and incompetent establishment, had reacted angrily on Friday to media reports that key political players had chosen him for the top job. Although there was no official confirmation of his nomination, demonstrators gathered in front of one of his properties in his hometown of Tripoli to protest against what they regarded as a provocation. It came as the US embassy in Lebanon on Saturday expressed support for the cross-sectarian protest movement that has swept the Middle Eastern country since October 17. “We support the Lebanese people in their peaceful demonstrations and expressions of national unity,” the embassy said on Twitter. Several mass rallies are planned for Sunday in cities across Lebanon to keep up the pressure on the country’s rulers, widely seen as irretrievably corrupt and unable to deal with a deepening economic crisis. The government has stayed on in a caretaker capacity since stepping down. Some local players, notably the powerful pro-Iranian Shia movement Hezbollah, have accused “external parties” and Western embassies of supporting the popular uprising, including through financial backing. On Saturday, a so-called “revolution bus” traversed the multi-religious country from north to south, decorated with the names of protest hotbeds. According to protesters, the initiative sought to break down geographical and sectarian barriers and overcome the collective trauma of the 1975-1990 civil war.

Lebanon: Safadi Withdraws Candidacy for PM
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 17 November, 2019
Former finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy to be Lebanon’s next prime minister on Saturday, saying that he saw that it would have been difficult to form a “harmonious” cabinet supported by all parties. Safadi emerged as a candidate on Thursday when political sources and Lebanese media said three major parties had agreed to support him for the position. His decision to withdraw throws Lebanon’s push to form a government needed to enact urgent reforms back to square one in the face of unprecedented protests that prompted prime minister Saad Hariri to resign on October 29 — nearly two weeks into the demonstrations demanding the removal of a ruling elite seen as corrupt and incompetent. Safadi said in a statement that he had decided to withdraw following consultations with political parties and a meeting on Saturday with Hariri. “It is difficult to form a harmonious government supported by all political sides that could take the immediate salvation steps needed to halt the country’s economic and financial deterioration and respond to the aspirations of people in the street,” the statement said. Protesters who took to the streets on Saturday denounced Safadi’s potential nomination, saying it ran counter to nationwide calls to oust a political elite they see him as part and parcel of. In the statement Safadi, a prominent businessman, thanked President Michel Aoun and Hariri for supporting his candidacy, and said he hoped Hariri would return as premier to form a new government. The process for choosing a new premier requires Aoun to formally consult members of parliament on their choice for prime minister. He must designate whoever gets the most votes.

Safadi to Testify over Zaitunay Bay, Voices Surprise over Hariri Statement
Naharnet/November 17/2019
Ex-minister Mohammed Safadi on Sunday said he has requested to appear before the financial prosecutor to refute allegations about the Zaitunay Bay promenade and marina. “After the issue of Zaitunay Bay was tackled in a false manner, and after the controversy, ambiguity in people’s minds, the launch of accusations and the claims about the presence of violations, Minister Mohammed Safadi took the initiative of calling Financial Prosecutor Ali Ibrahim and asked him to schedule a meeting,” Safadi’s office said. “He urged him to launch a complete and comprehensive probe and to hold accountable any wrongdoer in order to wrap up the file once and for all,” the office added. Safadi, who is a partner in the Zaitunay Bay project, has been accused of being involved in a venture that encroaches on public seaside property and of suspected money laundering and other violations. Separately, Safadi’s office commented on a statement issued by the press office of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The office said Safadi was “surprised” by the statement which “divulged the details of negotiations” between him and Hariri, which he had wanted to remain confidential. Describing the statement as an attempt at “political exploitation,” the office said Hariri did not keep promises made to Safadi to convince him to accept the nomination. “This prompted me to declare my withdrawal and today I call on everyone to show prudence and realize that Lebanon is bigger than us all and that it is in impending danger,” Safadi said in the statement.

Safadi asks Judge Ibrahim to open an investigation into case of Zaitunay Bay
NNA/November 17/2019
Former Minister Mohammad Safadi said in a statement on Sunday that he contacted the Financial Attorney General, Judge Ali Ibrahim, urging him to schedule an appointment to initiate an investigation into the case of Zaitunay Bay and hold any perpetrator accountable for any crime in this regard.”

US embassy in Lebanon ‘supports’ peaceful protests
AFP, Beirut/Sunday, 17 November 2019
The US embassy in Lebanon said on Saturday it supported the one-month-old anti-government protest movement in Lebanon. “We support the Lebanese people in their peaceful demonstrations and expressions of national unity,” the embassy said on Twitter. Lebanon has since October 17 been swept by an unprecedented cross-sectarian protest movement against the entire political establishment, which is widely seen as irretrievably corrupt and unable to deal with a deepening economic crisis. The government stepped down on October 29 but stayed on in a caretaker capacity, and an economic crisis has also battered the country. Some local players, notably the powerful pro-Iranian Shie movement Hezbollah, have accused “external parties” and Western embassies of supporting the popular uprising, including through financial backing. Several mass rallies are planned for Sunday in cities across Lebanon to keep up the pressure on the country’s ruling class. On Saturday, an initiative dubbed the “revolution bus” traversed the country. Lebanese anti-government protesters arrive in a “revolution” bus escorted by Lebanese army soldiers in the southern city of Sidon on November 16, 2019. (AFP) Leaving Akkar region in the north in the morning, the bus – decorated with the names of protest hotbeds in the multi-confessional country – arrived early in the evening in the southern city of Sidon. According to protesters, the initiative sought to break down geographical and sectarian barriers and overcome the collective trauma of the 1975-1990 civil war. In an incident that became emblematic of inter-sectarian schisms during that deadly conflict, a bus was strafed by gunfire.

U.S. Embassy in Lebanon Denies Link to ‘Revolution Bus’
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/2019
The U.S. embassy in Lebanon has said that it supports “the Lebanese people in their peaceful demonstrations,” but denied financing a so-called “revolution bus” that sparked controversy. “We heard the rumors and no, the U.S. Embassy is not financing ‘the revolution bus’,” the embassy tweeted.
“We support the Lebanese people in their peaceful demonstrations and expressions of national unity,” it added. Rumors circulated on social media had accused some organizers of the bus initiative of having ties to Washington and the U.S. embassy. The rumors created tensions and the bus was prevented from moving south beyond the Elia square in Sidon over security fears. Organizers and protesters who started their journey in the northern Akkar region had sought to reach the southern cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh, strongholds of Hizbullah and the AMAL Movement which have also witnessed anti-corruption protests. Lebanon has since October 17 been swept by an unprecedented cross-sectarian protest movement against the entire political establishment, which is widely seen as irretrievably corrupt and unable to deal with a deepening economic crisis. Some local players, notably the powerful Iran-backed Hizbullah, have accused “external parties” and Western embassies of supporting the popular uprising, including through financial backing. According to protesters, the bus initiative sought to break down geographical and sectarian barriers and overcome the collective trauma of the 1975-1990 civil war. In an incident blamed for sparking that deadly conflict, a bus was strafed by gunfire on April 13, 1975 in the Beirut suburb of Ain el-Rummaneh.

Qaouq: Some Planting Mines in Way of Govt. Formation
Naharnet/November 17/2019
A senior Hizbullah official on Sunday accused some parties of “planting mines in the way of the government formation process” in a bid to “change the political equations” in the country. “Regardless of the government’s shape and whoever its premier might be, Lebanon will not have a government subject to American diktats that would work on implementing the U.S. wishes at the expense of the Lebanese interests, specifically at the expense of Lebanon’s strength in resistance,” Hizbullah central council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq said. “From the position of historic national responsibility, Hizbullah has managed to thwart strife and Israel’s civil war ambitions, and it is keen on facilitating all contacts and consultations for the sake of forming a new government,” Qaouq added. Noting that “U.S. policy and Saudi electronic media sought to push citizens into clashes on the streets and were waiting for the eruption of strife among the Lebanese,” the Hizbullah official acknowledged that protesters on the streets “are rallying in order to rescue the country and demand their social rights.”But he warned that “those who infiltrated the popular protest movement, be them political parties or U.S. interferences, do not want to rescue the country but rather to bring it down in order to achieve political gains.”

Arab Banks Union to convene in Cairo upcoming December 8 & 9
NNA/November 17/2019
The Union of Arab Banks is expected to hold its annual conference on December 8 & 9, 2019, which will tackle the “impact of political and economic fluctuations on the flow of banking operations in the Arab region.”
“The conference will discuss the economic reforms and their impact on achieving economic and social security, as well as the pressure imposed by international legislation on the banking sector and its repercussions,” the Union’s Secretary General Wissam Fattouh said in a statement. Referring to the Beirut banking conference, Fattouh indicated that it was postponed due to the developments in Lebanon. He added that the conference will be held immediately upon the new cabinet formation and after the return of political conditions to normal, with the participation of all parties and international institutions and Arab monetary funds. “This reflects the belief in Lebanon’s financial and economic role, and comes as a token of devotion which the Arab bankers have for Lebanon,” he said. “Beirut remains the capital of financial and banking conferences, attracting all Arab bankers who insist on the Lebanese capital to hold their conferences,” Fattouh concluded.

Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 17-18/2019
With deadlock continuing, Lebanon’s crisis is set for the long haul/Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly Editorial/Sunday 17/11/201
The bright side to the Lebanese October revolution/The Arab Weekly Editorial/Sunday 17/11/2019
Lebanese abroad look for ways to get involved in protest movement/Justin Salhani/The Arab Weekly/Sunday 17/11/2019
Let Aoun, Nasrallah and Bassil be the ones to emigrate/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 17/ 2019
What’s next for the Lebanese banking sector?/Dan Azzi/Annahar/November 17/2019
Lebanon protests one month in: Demonstrators score electoral win but politicians still deadlocked/Sunniva Rose/The National/November 17/2019

The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 17-18/2019
With deadlock continuing, Lebanon’s crisis is set for the long haul
Samar Kadi/The Arab Weekly Editorial/Sunday 17/11/2019
BEIRUT – The month-old demonstrations that brought Lebanon to a halt and toppled Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government have yet to deliver on protesters’ demands for an “emergency administration” of independent technocratic ministers capable of rescuing the country from its acute financial crisis.
Reports that a consensus was reached to nominate Mohammad Safadi, a former Finance minister, as prime minister fuelled the anger of protesters who gathered outside Safadi’s home. “Reports about Safadi’s nomination could be a test balloon to see how it would be received. The people reacted with more protests. I don’t think that would work, unless the ruling class wants to confront the people,” said political analyst Amin Kammourieh.
“We are stuck in an impasse,” he said. “A government of technocrats will not be accepted by Hezbollah and its allies while a cabinet of politicians and technocrats will still face opposition in the street.”Hariri, who resigned October 29 after unprecedented protests against ruling politicians blamed for rampant state corruption and an economic crisis, said he would only return as prime minister of a cabinet of non-partisan specialist ministers. While the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies, the Shia Amal Movement of parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and the Free Patriotic Movement of President Michel Aoun, wanted Hariri to return as prime minister, they insisted on a cabinet of both technocrats and politicians. “They want him (Hariri) back because he represents a Sunni majority and has strong relations with the West, which they don’t want to lose,” Kammourieh said. Kammourieh said a cabinet of independent technocrats would eliminate or weaken the hold of Hezbollah, which does not want to be seen as “if it has conceded to the international community, notably the West and the Americans,” he said.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has repeatedly insinuated that critics of Hezbollah’s political line were manipulating the protests and that the demonstrations had been exploited by international and regional powers against Hezbollah. Protesters blocked roads and crammed city squares despite little sign of an imminent breakthrough. Lebanon appears to be in for a prolonged crisis. The first fatality in the protests occurred November 12, when a Lebanese soldier shot a protester south of Beirut shortly after a live interview during which Aoun implicitly rejected the protesters’ demand for an independent cabinet.
A non-partisan cabinet of experts with a well-defined agenda, including early general elections, “is the only option to surmount the crisis,” said Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.
“If the deadlock persists, Lebanon will be plunging into a more severe economic crisis. The World Bank has warned that 50% of the Lebanese will fall into poverty. That will lead to complete chaos and all-out civil disobedience.”Neither side appears prepared to compromise and there is no political leadership or opposition party that could be an alternative to the ruling parties. “Hezbollah and its allies are not willing so far to relinquish their dominion over the political establishment but, in the meantime, the country may collapse… We are still at square one.”

The bright side to the Lebanese October revolution
The Arab Weekly Editorial/Sunday 17/11/2019
No matter whether the demonstrators succeed or fail, politicians will never again dare to steal with impunity as they have so frequently done in the past.
Sunday 17/11/2019
The popular demonstrations in Lebanon that began with euphoria and hope and forced the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri are unlikely to unfold the way the crowds wish.
Drastic changes in the political and social structure of Lebanon, which is what is needed if the demands of the people are to be met, are highly unlikely.
Meaning that the revolution is dead? No, far from it. The revolution is in its infancy. It is only starting. A revolution is a continuous movement. It is ongoing. It is perpetual, otherwise it dies. It was not only residents of Beirut taking to the streets — so, too, did people in cities around the country. They protested in Sidon, in Tripoli, Tyre and many other locations. It is likely that some changes will be introduced. However, the demonstrators will soon realise that not all of their demands will be accepted by the establishment. Much to the displeasure of the establishment, it will soon realise that it has no choice but to adapt to the new realities. Lebanon’s traditional leadership, based along confessional and sectarian — almost tribal-clannish — lines reflecting a quasi-medieval social structure, has led the country to the brink of economic disaster, almost reaching the level of a failed state. This cannot go on.
It is inevitable that some changes as demanded by demonstrators over the last month are going to be met but not all the demands will be addressed and many promises will be broken.
However, in typical Lebanese manner, the president will appoint a new prime minister, who will introduce some new faces to the political arena and will retain some of the establishment’s defenders. Those may be second- or third-tier establishment people who will continue to serve their masters, rather than their country. Lebanon’s revolution is unlikely to be successful in its first try. This must be seen as a multistep endeavour, which may take decades. As with almost every major development in Lebanon since its independence, the crisis will have to be resolved through consensus.
There is, however, a bright side to the dark and murky waters of Lebanese politics and some changes to the Lebanese political scene are inevitable. Many people in Lebanon are realising that, while they may not be as optimistic as they were in the early days of the protests, there may be a silver lining.
No matter whether the demonstrators succeed or fail, politicians will never again dare to steal with impunity as they have so frequently done in the past. Flagrant disregard of laws and corruption simply because one is powerful enough to get away with it will not disappear entirely but changes of motion set out in the October revolution will make those with bad intentions think twice before committing similar crimes. The real test — to see how many Lebanese have changed and just how much they have changed — will become apparent at the next elections.
Will the country continue to vote for the same people who took the nation to the brink of the economic meltdown or will they be faithful to the ideals of the October revolution and vote in new faces without the traditional requirement of belonging to a certain religion, group, sect or party?
If Lebanon aims to achieve a true level of democracy, it should strive to have its laws made applicable to all citizens and residents of the country. That includes the Hezbollah-dominated sectarian system of benefits, many of which smack of unfairness and corruption.

Lebanese abroad look for ways to get involved in protest movement
Justin Salhani/The Arab Weekly/Sunday 17/11/2019
PARIS – As Lebanon marks one month of protests, activists and demonstrators are charting their next steps in the effort to remove what they say is a corrupt political system. The Lebanese diaspora, which faces a different set of struggles, is finding ways to get involved in the movement.
When the protests began, many Lebanese outside the country experienced a whirlwind of emotions. There was pride in compatriots standing up to the long-entrenched government but also some uneasiness about not being present to support them.
This was not the first time Lebanese have had a protest effort aimed at revolutionising the political system but previous setbacks made many lose hope. In 2005, massive demonstrations led to the expulsion of occupying Syrian forces but the following ten years were punctuated by social and economic crises. In 2015, a waste-disposal crisis led Lebanese to again protest in mass but that movement broke down because of internal divisions and the political class’s efforts to keep them at bay.
“I really lost heart after the (2015) ‘You Stink’ (protests),” said Drew Mikhael, a Belfast-based academic who said he visits Lebanon around eight times each year. Mikhael said that, after the collapse of the 2015 protests, he stopped keeping up with Lebanese news.
This time, however, something feels different, protesters said.
“The united nature crosses sect, class, gender. It’s inclusive of the LGBT community and it has reignited hope,” Mikhael said, adding that the new social contract forged by Lebanese across the country appears to be a watershed moment in casting off sectarian divisions.
The Lebanese diaspora is re-energised. Weekly protests have taken place in New York, Paris, London and elsewhere since mid-October. There has been a significant backlash to Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s suggestions that Lebanese unhappy with their government can simply emigrate. That struck a particularly harsh note with the diaspora, many of whom left because of a lack of opportunity at home.
Many Lebanese living abroad confess they feel guilt, shame or fear of missing out in the protests. It isn’t helped that they are sometimes stigmatised by other Lebanese for having left their country, whether or not by choice.
Nasri Atallah said he was at a protest in London, where he lives, and heard people chanting how they wish to live and work in Lebanon. While he doesn’t disagree, he said his personal situation is different.
“I thought about how, even if things in Lebanon were ideal, I would probably leave anyway because my ambitions are matched in a place like London or New York,” Atallah said.
When the protests broke out, Atallah said he considered returning to Beirut but he felt uneasy. “I felt it would be conflict tourism to go to my own country as an expat under these circumstances and I thought about how I could be of better use in my own city,” he said.
Since then, he’s been talking to others in the diaspora about how to help and build a network that can help find opportunities for young Lebanese artists or professionals, similar to networks used by the Armenian or Chinese
communities abroad.
There is a stark dichotomy between the lives of Lebanese diaspora members and Lebanese at home, many pointed out. A meme on social media during the first days of the protest movement showed a drawn figurine of an expat woman watching developments on her laptop surrounded by trinkets and dishes that reminded her of Lebanon.
“For the first week, I was glued to (Lebanese news channel) MTV and I’d be at my job and listening to all the latest developments at the same time,” said Micha Maalouf, who lives in New York. “I told everyone at my office what was happening and why this was so important.”
She was not the only Lebanese living abroad eagerly keeping up with the news but while expatriates used social media to stay informed, they sometimes struggled to manage their daily lives. Maalouf admitted she’s had to shut off the news so her work performance didn’t suffer.
Many diaspora members observed a strange dichotomy between following developments in Lebanon and staying connected to local happenings. Some found it surreal to flip through memes of their friends and family supporting the protests, only to be interrupted by an Instagram story featuring a plate of food posted by a non-Lebanese colleague.
“It felt like a moral obligation at first,” Youssef Mallat, a Lebanese living in Paris, said about focusing solely on “the revolution.” “When I’d see posts not about the revolution it made me a bit angry because I felt it wasn’t time to talk about other things and we have bigger problems but as an expat what do you do? At some point, your life is still going,” he said.
The divide reminds the Lebanese diaspora of the duality of their lives. Many left Lebanon for the chance at a more stable life but their hearts are with protesters on the streets of Lebanon chanting “thawra, thawra, thawra!”

Let Aoun, Nasrallah and Bassil be the ones to emigrate
بارعة علم الدين/اتركوا عون وباسيل ونصرالله يحاجروا من لبنان
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 17/ 2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=80647&action=edit
Michel Aoun’s depressingly out-of-touch interview last week — culminating in him disparagingly declaring “let them emigrate,” addressed at all Lebanese discontented with the miserable status quo — focused renewed popular anger against the president. A month after it began, the revolution accumulates momentum, energy and confidence with each passing week.
The nomination of Mohammed Safadi to head a new government reassured nobody that Lebanon’s sectarian governing framework has renounced its clientelistic instincts (Safadi has since withdrawn his candidacy anyway). Protesters denounced the 75-year-old former finance minister as one of the corrupt elite’s more grotesque faces. “Choosing Mohammed Safadi for prime minister proves that the politicians who rule us are in a deep coma,” remarked one demonstrator.
No possible choice of Sunni prime minister can solve this crisis — the sectarian system is rotten to the core and must be abolished in its entirety. Saad Hariri is one of the few leaders to understand the depth of the popular anger; hence his insistence on only cooperating with a government entirely composed of technocrats. Hariri was burnt by his participation in previous governments for the sake of consensus and civil peace — yet amounting to no more than a sticking plaster over a gaping wound.
Following his opportunistic embrace of the pro-Syria/Iran camp after his 2005 return from exile, Aoun became the cornerstone on which Hezbollah consolidated its dominance of the Lebanese state, effectively neutralizing Lebanon’s Christians as a potential counterweight to Iranian hegemony.
Aoun, at the age of 84, is disconnected from the realities of contemporary Lebanon. His son-in-law Gebran Bassil has been the real driving force behind efforts to cobble together a government behind the scenes and subvert the revolution’s momentum. These labors reportedly included meetings with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to prepare the ground for a transition of power from Aoun to Bassil. Yet Bassil is even more deeply loathed than Aoun — as attested by the unrepeatably rude chants from demonstrating crowds. Even among erstwhile Christian supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement, there is recognition that Aoun and Bassil stand guilty of facilitating Iran’s hostile takeover of their homeland.
This weekend’s sudden outbreak of protests across Iran over skyrocketing petrol prices, along with the sustained explosion of anger against Iranian meddling in Iraq, should be a salutary reminder to Nasrallah that the future disintegration of the Islamic Republic will cause the ground to disappear beneath his feet. Until recently, Hezbollah appeared omnipotent; yet, with each passing day of mass protests, Nasrallah is left scrabbling to adjust to new realities.
Ordinary people’s voices have been extinguished entirely in a state governed for the malign pleasure of oligarchic and foreign interests.
The Iranian protests already have many commonalities with the Lebanese and Iraqi uprisings, with economic grievances rapidly giving way to calls for “death to the dictator.” Attempts by Iraqi and Lebanese protesters to directly communicate with each other indicate a way that citizens can capitalize on their common grievances — as they all ultimately desire an end to the detested ayatollahs’ regime.
Lebanon’s sectarianism and factionalism have set communities against each other, rendering the country a plaything of foreign powers, with France, the US and various regional states having their favored factional allies. However — as is the case with Syria and Iraq — Arab influence in Lebanon has lamentably withered away altogether in recent years.
Of all the foreign parties, it is Tehran that came to dominate the Lebanese arena through its chosen vehicle of Hezbollah, while exploiting clients like Aoun to monopolize the entire political system. Instead of the sectarian system guaranteeing that all communities are represented, ordinary people’s voices have been extinguished entirely in a state governed for the malign pleasure of oligarchic and foreign interests. The Aoun-Bassil relationship is a further reminder of the feudal nature of Lebanon’s politics, with the same few families monopolizing power since pre-civil war days. How can anybody mistake this for democracy?
The civil war shattered Lebanon’s sense of collective national belonging. Recent protests herald the rebirth of this unified identity, the rejection of sectarianism, and an assertion of national sovereignty. The revolution’s first martyr, Alaa Abou Fakhr, has posthumously come to embody this patriotic mood, with his face appearing on huge murals and across social media, while the local school and the American University of Beirut have pledged to cover the costs of his bereaved children’s education.
Whether in Iran, Lebanon or Iraq, democracy only exists when people’s choices at the ballot box are meaningfully reflected in the composition and agenda of the administration. A nation state can only exist when people’s primary loyalties and affiliation are to the entire motherland and not to communities segmented along bitter sectarian divides or to foreign powerbrokers.
Aoun’s insulting retort about appointing independent technocrats — “Where can I find them? On the moon?” — illustrates his blinkered detachment from the deep reserves of experienced, educated and dedicated figures that Lebanon can draw on when the crooks are forced to step aside.
Lebanon’s chronic crises and cronyism, generation after generation, have consistently impelled its finest minds to choose the uncertainties and rootlessness of exile. Rather than dismissively exhorting patriotic citizens to emigrate, future leaderships should offer their most outstanding citizens incentives to invest their energies, wealth and expertise in their homeland.
This is a nation capable of great things, if only protesters retain the courage of their convictions and follow through on this revolution to bring in a new generation of leaders dedicated to Lebanon’s well-being rather than their own.
If Nasrallah, Aoun, Bassil and others dislike this aspiration, then they know where they can go.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

What’s next for the Lebanese banking sector?
Dan Azzi/Annahar/November 17/2019
This also makes the current unwinding that we’re currently witnessing, the biggest destruction of wealth in the history of the country.
Who remembers a banker or politician beaming proudly about the banking sector’s $170 billion in deposits? The Lira is safe, they would continue without skipping a beat, because the size of our deposits is 3 times GDP. This is like me borrowing $3 million from someone and going around town bragging that I’m a multi-millionaire. Deposits are liabilities, i.e. debt, owed by the banks to you, the depositor. Banks and people forgot this simple principle, which is why we are where we are today. The banking sector and the central bank in Lebanon have presided over the biggest artificial creation of money and wealth in the history of the nation, which I wrote about here Effectively, they did something that nobody’s ever done before — they printed US dollars. If this had happened in physical form, special agents from the US Secret Service, wearing Oakley sunglasses, would have been dispatched to Beirut to investigate … except it was all perfectly (or imperfectly) legal. This also makes the current unwinding that we’re currently witnessing, the biggest destruction of wealth in the history of the country.
We were featured in the Guinness Book of Records in 1976 for the biggest bank heist in history, the British Bank of the Middle East (HSBC today). The armed bandits, thought to be PLO, made out with around $125 million in today’s dollars, and, except for the largest Hummos plate, we haven’t graced its pages for anything significant since. We will soon have the dubious honor of being featured again, for the biggest bank heist in history, except this time it won’t involve armed men with AK-47s and RPGs. It was perpetrated by men in Ermenigildo Zegna suits, Hermès ties, and Rolex watches.
It will more accurately be featured as the largest government-sponsored Ponzi scheme in the history of mankind, more than double the size of that amateur Madoff. A Ponzi Scheme is defined as a fraudulent investment scheme paying inexplicably high returns to old investors, funded by new investors. This definition applies precisely to what happened in Lebanon, except the fraudulent part. Madoff promised high returns using a “split-strike option strategy” — an outright lie, and too complex-sounding for anyone to ask further questions. In our case, it was explained by “financial engineering” which was also too complex-sounding for anyone to ask further questions, however nobody actually lied, meaning nobody claimed that this was being invested in widgets, when they weren’t. Banks simply offered high returns of say 15% to a customer who didn’t know or care how these returns were being generated.
While Madoff affected a few hundred rich investors, our Ponzi involves the government, the whole banking sector, and will touch, in some shape or form, some 5 million Lebanese citizens, as well as a few adventurous foreigners — Iraqis, Syrians, and even the likes of some Jordanian banks, tempted by the interest rates offered by our banking geniuses, unmatched anywhere in the world. Once again, they will be reminded, the hard way, of the eternal cliche and fallacy, “too good to be true” and “this time is different.”
A few months ago, in a conversation with the author of the book with the same title, the renowned expert on financial crises, Harvard Professor Carmen Reinhardt, said, “Lebanon has been the source of largest errors in the Kaminsky-Reinhart early warnings model (i.e. Chronic false alarms) … Lebanon is a tricky and very interesting case. I have been expecting a currency devaluation for a long, long time! I think you have sources of funding that are difficult to track.”
If more than half of all dollar deposits in Lebanon are fake, as I’m claiming, how does this affect day-to-day life?
For one thing, whether or not you believe in the inevitability of a haircut, it’s pretty clear that a dollar outside Lebanon (or cash) is worth more than a dollar in your bank account (let’s call this a fake or “Lebanese dollar”). We’ve already seen this reflected in some unusual transactions in the market, such as a person trading a $100,000 deposit in his bank account for $80-90,000 in cash. We’ve also seen a spike in real estate transactions, meaning people buying land or apartments using checks drawn on fake dollars to buy tangible assets — the bet here is that even if real estate drops further (which it will), it’s a better store of value than the eventual recovery value of a typical deposit. A developer is happy to take a check for fake dollars, because his bank has no choice but to accept it in return for his loan in (real dollars). In some sense, this is positive for the banking sector, because it shrinks their balance sheets and reduces their nonperforming loans. Of course, a person buying real estate with real dollars (cash or dollars transferred from an overseas account to an overseas account) might pay half-price on the same deal. Other forms of these types of deals might be buying a used car (or other depreciable assets or even commodities such as gold or diamonds) using fake dollars, and exporting it outside the country and selling it overseas … assuming the seller accepts fake dollars. The only seller who would accept it is one in debt, because his bank has no choice but to accept this check to settle a loan.
Traditionally, banks have competed ferociously for your deposit. Have you noticed that these days they’re not offering you high interest to switch to their bank? Why do you think that is? Because, the dollars you’re transferring are fake and you’re probably switching banks assuming that the receiving bank will be more permissive in letting you withdraw money or transfer overseas. In other words, you’re making the problems of the receiving banks worse, because of increasing the demand on their dwindling real dollars, rationed by the central bank.
They no longer want you.
In fact, banks will no longer be as proud of their deposits increasing, because those are liabilities (debt) that they can’t pay.
The best banks today are the ones who can reduce their deposits, reduce their loans (especially NPL), and unwind as much as they can from their deposits at BDL. That last one is the most tricky part and the key to its survival.

Lebanon protests one month in: Demonstrators score electoral win but politicians still deadlocked
Sunniva Rose/The National/November 17/2019
Independent Melhem Khalaf elected to lead Beirut Bar Association as uprising enters its second month
As Lebanese politicians seemed to be caught in a disastrous deadlock on Sunday, the anti-establishment protest movement scored its first electoral win, voting in an independent to lead the Beirut Bar Association.
Melhem Khalaf won by a comfortable margin against Nader Gaspard, a candidate backed by the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces, Progressive Socialist Party and the Future Movement.
Pierre Hanna, previously backed by the LF, PSP and Future Movement, withdrew his candidacy in favour of Mr Gaspard to try to secure his win.
“We hope this day will renew democracy within Lebanon’s institutions,” Mr Khalaf said in his victory speech.
Until now, the Beirut Bar Association had not taken a formal stance on the month of mass protests against corruption, poor governance and a crumbling economy. But as Mr Khalaf’s name was announced, many in the crowd of lawyers at the tally cheered and broke into chants of “thowra”, or revolution.
Meanwhile, a plan by parties to form a new government to tackle the dire economic situation and address the demands of protesters appeared to fall apart. Two days after he was chosen by Lebanon’s most powerful political parties to be the country’s next prime minister, veteran politician Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy on Saturday evening.
As the country faces a possible “total economic meltdown with potential violence”, its political system is “completely paralysed” by the mass protests that started on October 17, analyst Imad Salamey said.
After resigning on October 29, caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri had reportedly agreed to meet protesters half-way by forming a small government of technocrats.
An apolitical government is one of the key demands of protesters. Triggered by a suggested tax on WhatsApp calls, the protest movement quickly became a rejection of the entire Lebanese political system, based on sectarianism.
But Mr Hariri’s proposal was reportedly dismissed by President Michel Aoun, who wants politicians to be part of the new government.
In a meeting on Thursday evening, the Christian Free Patriotic Movement founded by Mr Aoun, Lebanon’s two Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, and Mr Hariri all agreed on Mr Safadi’s nomination.
Lebanon’s prime minister must be Sunni Muslim, according to the country’s sectarian power-sharing system. But picking Mr Safadi, 75, a billionaire with strong ties to the country’s elite, to lead a government that would include other familiar politicians was a slap in the face for protesters, who rejected the proposal. Mr Safadi, an MP for 18 consecutive years, held key ministerial positions between 2005 and 2014. Like Mr Hariri, he made his fortune in real estate. Adding insult to injury, it was caretaker Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, the most unpopular politician with protesters, who said parliamentary consultations would begin on Monday and would confirm Mr Safadi’s nomination as new prime minister.
Mr Bassil, who has aspirations to succeed his father-in-law as president, is regarded by protesters as representative of one of the worst aspects of Lebanese politics: nepotism. Mr Bassil took over leadership of the FPM from the president in 2015.
But nepotism is not limited to the FPM. Mr Hariri inherited his position from his father, Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated in 2005.
Parliament is made up of political dynasties, long-time politicians and their relatives. Mr Bassil’s announcement immediately led to attacks from Mr Hariri’s party, the Future Movement, which accused him of overstepping his powers. Parliamentary consultations should normally be announced by the country’s president, not a caretaker minister.
Mr Bassil’s office argued that local media had distorted his words, the Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour reported.
Analysts have suggested that choosing Mr Safadi in a closed-door meeting was unconstitutional, although opaque procedures are standard practice in filling top posts in Lebanese politics.
Even Ibrahim Al Amine, editor in chief of Al Akhbar, a newspaper close to Hezbollah, which has accused protesters of receiving funding from abroad, questioned the FPM and Hezbollah’s agreement in an article on Saturday titled: “Those who thought of the Safadi option, suggested it or accepted it, are crazy.” By Saturday evening, Mr Safadi had withdrawn his candidacy.
He said it would be “difficult to form a harmonious government supported by all political sides that could take the immediate salvation steps needed to halt the country’s economic and financial deterioration, and respond to the aspirations of people in the street”.
Mr Safadi also said he hoped Mr Hariri would return as premier to form a new government. As politicians bicker over power, others have used the threat of a new civil war. Mr Hariri condemned the FPM, saying Mr Safadi’s name had not been used as a pretext to build support for him to return as prime minister in the next government. “Prime Minister Hariri does not manoeuvre and does not seek to limit the possibility of forming a government to himself,” his office said. “He was the first to present alternative names to form a government. He was clear, from the first day of the government’s resignation, with all the representatives of the parliamentary blocs, that he does not evade any national responsibility.”
Mr Hariri also said Mr Safadi’s name had been put forward by Mr Bassil, whereas the prime minister was pushing for Nawaf Salam, a judge at the International Court of Justice and formerly Lebanon’s ambassador to the UN.
Caretaker Defence Minister, Elias Bou Saab, said on Thursday that the country was in a “very dangerous situation”. But protesters refuse to back down.
“Politicians love saying how dangerous the situation is because they want people to be too afraid to protest,” said Alaa Sayegh, an activist from the LiHaqqi political movement created in 2017. “They want the situation to go back to what it was like before October 17, but there is no bigger danger than the same political parties staying in power because they brought Lebanon to economic ruin.” The source of Lebanon’s deadlock is the dichotomy between Hezbollah and its allies’ strong grip on local politics resulting from the 2018 parliamentary elections, and the country’s economy that relies on Arab and western support, Mr Salamey said.
One of the most indebted countries in the world, Lebanon needs international help as it faces imminent economic collapse. But donors would be reluctant to help a government dominated by Iran-backed Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the US. Lebanon is suffering from a liquidity shortage that has led to banks limiting daily withdrawals, causing difficulties for importers.
As a result, there is a shortage of basic goods such as fuel and medication, and prices in supermarkets have increased in some areas by up to 20 per cent.
Mr Salamey said the only solution for Lebanon was to establish a “new political formula” that is not beholden to the outcomes of the elections in 2018.
“The situation hinges on Hezbollah and the FPM’s willingness to make serious concessions in that direction,” he said. But on Sunday, Hezbollah signalled that it was not yet open to concessions. “There are those who deliberately lay mines in the path of forming a government and whose goal is to change the political equations between the country’s main forces,” said senior Hezbollah official Nabil Qawouq. “Lebanon will not be a government of American dictates.”

The post A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For November 17-18/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 32th Day appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

نشرة أخبار المنسقية العامة للمؤسسات اللبنانية الكندية باللغة العربية ليوم 18 تشرين الثاني/2019

اضغط هنا لقراءة نشرة أخبار المنسقية العامة المفصلة، اللبنانية والعربية ليوم 18 تشرين الثاني/2019

ارشيف نشرات أخبار موقعنا اليومية/عربية وانكليزية منذ العام 2006/اضغط هنا لدخول صفحة الأرشيف

عناوين أقسام نشرة المنسقية باللغة العربية
الزوادة الإيمانية لليوم
تعليقات الياس بجاني وخلفياتها
الأخبار اللبنانية
المتفرقات اللبنانية
الأخبار الإقليمية والدولية
المقالات والتعليقات والتحاليل السياسية الشاملة
المؤتمرات والندوات والبيانات والمقابلات والمناسبات الخاصة والردود وغيره

The post نشرة أخبار المنسقية العامة للمؤسسات اللبنانية الكندية باللغة العربية ليوم 18 تشرين الثاني/2019 appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

وقَالَ لَهُم: إِحْذَرُوا أَنْ يُضِلَّكُم أَحَد! فكَثِيرُونَ سَيَأْتُونَ بِٱسْمِي قَائِلين: «أَنَا هُوَ المَسِيح! ويُضِلُّونَ الكَثِيرِين
إنجيل القدّيس متّى24/من01حتى14/:”خَرَجَ يَسُوعُ مِنَ الهَيْكَلِ ومَضَى. فَدَنَا مِنهُ تَلامِيذُهُ يُلْفِتُونَ نَظَرَهُ إِلى أَبْنِيَةِ الهَيْكَل.فَأَجَابَ وقَالَ لَهُم: «أَلا تَنْظُرونَ هذَا كُلَّهُ؟ أَلحَقَّ أَقُولُ لَكُم: لَنْ يُتْرَكَ هُنَا حَجَرٌ عَلى حَجَرٍ إِلاَّ ويُنْقَض». وفيمَا هُوَ جَالِسٌ عَلى جَبَلِ الزَّيتُون، دَنَا مِنْهُ التَّلامِيذُ على ٱنْفِرَادٍ قَائِلين: « قُلْ لَنَا مَتَى يَكُونُ هذَا، ومَا هِيَ عَلامَةُ مَجِيئِكَ ونِهَايَةِ العَالَم؟». فَأَجَابَ يَسُوعُ وقَالَ لَهُم: «إِحْذَرُوا أَنْ يُضِلَّكُم أَحَد! فكَثِيرُونَ سَيَأْتُونَ بِٱسْمِي قَائِلين: «أَنَا هُوَ المَسِيح! ويُضِلُّونَ الكَثِيرِين. وسَوْفَ تَسْمَعُونَ بِحُرُوبٍ وبِأَخْبَارِ حُرُوب، أُنْظُرُوا، لا تَرْتَعِبُوا! فلا بُدَّ أَنْ يَحْدُثَ هذَا. ولكِنْ لَيْسَتِ النِّهَايَةُ بَعْد! سَتَقُومُ أُمَّةٌ عَلى أُمَّة، ومَمْلَكَةٌ عَلى مَمْلَكَة، وتَكُونُ مَجَاعَاتٌ وزَلازِلُ في أَمَاكِنَ شَتَّى، وهذَا كُلُّه أَوَّلُ المَخَاض. حِينَئِذٍ يُسْلِمُونَكُم إِلى الضِّيق، ويَقْتُلُونَكُم، ويُبْغِضُكُم جَمِيعُ الأُمَمِ مِنْ أَجْلِ ٱسْمِي. وحِينَئِذٍ يَرْتَدُّ الكَثِيْرُونَ عَنِ الإِيْمَان، ويُسْلِمُ بَعْضُهُم بَعْضًا، ويُبْغِضُ بَعْضُهُم بَعْضًا. ويَقُومُ أَنْبِيَاءُ كَذَبَةٌ كَثِيرُونَ ويُضِلُّونَ الكَثِيرِين. ولِكَثْرَةِ الإِثْمِ تَفْتُرُ مَحَبَّةُ الكَثِيْرين. ومَنْ يَصْبِرْ إِلى النِّهَايَةِ يَخْلُصْ. ويُكْرَزُ بِإِنْجيلِ المَلَكُوتِ هذا في المَسْكُونَةِ كُلِّهَا شَهَادَةً لِجَمِيعِ الأُمَم، وحينَئِذٍ تَأْتِي النِّهَايَة.”

Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, “I am the Messiah!” and they will lead many astray
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 24/01-14/:”As Jesus came out of the temple and was going away, his disciples came to point out to him the buildings of the temple. Then he asked them, ‘You see all these, do you not? Truly I tell you, not one stone will be left here upon another; all will be thrown down.’When he was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately, saying, ‘Tell us, when will this be, and what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?’Jesus answered them, ‘Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, “I am the Messiah!” and they will lead many astray. And you will hear of wars and rumours of wars; see that you are not alarmed; for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places: all this is but the beginning of the birth pangs. ‘Then they will hand you over to be tortured and will put you to death, and you will be hated by all nations because of my name. Then many will fall away, and they will betray one another and hate one another. And many false prophets will arise and lead many astray. And because of the increase of lawlessness, the love of many will grow cold. But anyone who endures to the end will be saved. And this good news of the kingdom will be proclaimed throughout the world, as a testimony to all the nations; and then the end will come.”

لا تَضِلُّوا! إِنَّ المُعَاشَرَاتِ السَّيِّئَةَ تُفْسِدُ الأَخْلاقَ السَّلِيمَة! أَيْقِظُوا قُلُوبَكُم بِالتَّقْوَى، ولا تَخْطَأُوا، فَإِنَّ بَعْضًا مِنْكُم يَجْهَلُونَ الله! أَقُولُ هذَا لإِخْجَالِكُم
رسالة القدّيس بولس الأولى إلى أهل قورنتس15/من19حتى34/:”يا إِخوَتِي، إِنْ كُنَّا نَرْجُو المَسِيحَ في هذِهِ الحَيَاةِ وحَسْبُ، فَنَحْنُ أَشْقَى النَّاسِ أَجْمَعِين! وَالحَالُ أَنَّ المَسِيحَ قَامَ مِنْ بَيْنِ الأَمْوَات، وهُوَ بَاكُورَةُ الرَّاقِدِين. فَبِمَا أَنَّ المَوْتَ كَانَ بِوَاسِطَةِ إِنْسَان، فَبِوَاسِطَةِ إِنْسَانٍ أَيْضًا تَكُونُ قِيَامَةُ الأَمْوَات. فَكَمَا أَنَّهُ في آدَمَ يَمُوتُ الجمِيع، كَذَلِكَ في المَسِيحِ سيَحْيَا الجَمِيع، كُلُّ وَاحِدٍ في رُتْبَتِه: المَسِيحُ أَوَّلاً، لأَنَّهُ البَاكُورَة، ثُمَّ الَّذِينَ هُمْ لِلمَسِيح، عِنْدَ مَجِيئِهِ. وَبَعْدَ ذلِكَ تَكُونُ النِّهَايَة، حِيْنَ يُسَلِّمُ المَسِيحُ المُلْكَ إِلى اللهِ الآب، بَعْدَ أَنْ يَكُونَ قَدْ أَبْطَلَ كُلَّ رِئَاسَةٍ وكُلَّ سُلْطَانٍ وَقُوَّة، لأَنَّهُ لا بُدَّ لِلمَسِيحِ أَنْ يَمْلِك، إِلى أَنْ يَجْعَلَ اللهُ جَمِيعَ أَعْدَائِهِ تَحْتَ قَدَمَيه. وآخِرُ عَدُوٍّ يُبْطَلُ هُوَ المَوْت. لَقَدْ أَخْضَعَ اللهُ كُلَّ شَيءٍ تَحْتَ قَدَمَيْه. وَحِينَ يَقُولُ الكِتَاب: «أُخْضِعَ لَهُ كُلُّ شَيء»، فَمِنَ الوَاضِحِ أَنَّهُ يَسْتَثْنِي اللهَ الَّذي أَخْضَعَ لَهُ كُلَّ شَيء. ومَتَى أُخْضِعَ لِلٱبْنِ كُلُّ شَيء، فَحِينَئِذٍ يَخْضَعُ الٱبْنُ نَفْسُهُ لِلَّذي أَخْضَعَ لَهُ كُلَّ شَيْء، حَتَّى يَكُونَ اللهُ الكُلَّ في الكُلّ. وإِلاَّ فَمَاذَا يَفْعَلُ الَّذِينَ يَتَعَمَّدُونَ مِنْ أَجْلِ الأَمْوَات؟ إِنْ كَانَ الأَمْوَاتُ لا يَقُومُونَ أَبَدًا، فَلِمَاذَا يَتَعَمَّدُونَ مِنْ أَجْلِهِم؟ ونَحْنُ، فَلِمَاذَا نُعَرِّضُ أَنْفُسَنَا كُلَّ سَاعَةٍ لِلخَطَر؟ أُقْسِمُ، أَيُّهَا الإِخْوَة، بِمَا لي مِنْ فَخْرٍ بِكُم في المَسِيحِ يَسُوعَ رَبِّنَا، أَنِّي أُوَاجِهُ المَوْتَ كُلَّ يَوْم. إِنْ كُنْتُ صَارَعْتُ الوُحُوشَ في أَفَسُس، لِغَايَةٍ بَشَرِيَّة، فأَيُّ نَفْعٍ لي؟ وإِنْ كَانَ الأَمْوَاتُ لا يَقُومُون، فَلْنَأْكُلْ وَنَشْرَب، لأَنَّنَا غَدًا سَنَمُوت! لا تَضِلُّوا! إِنَّ المُعَاشَرَاتِ السَّيِّئَةَ تُفْسِدُ الأَخْلاقَ السَّلِيمَة! أَيْقِظُوا قُلُوبَكُم بِالتَّقْوَى، ولا تَخْطَأُوا، فَإِنَّ بَعْضًا مِنْكُم يَجْهَلُونَ الله! أَقُولُ هذَا لإِخْجَالِكُم”.

Do not be deceived: ‘Bad company ruins good morals.’Come to a sober and right mind, and sin no more; for some people have no knowledge of God. I say this to your shame
First Letter to the Corinthians 15/19-34/:”If for this life only we have hoped in Christ, we are of all people most to be pitied. But in fact Christ has been raised from the dead, the first fruits of those who have died. For since death came through a human being, the resurrection of the dead has also come through a human being; for as all die in Adam, so all will be made alive in Christ. But each in his own order: Christ the first fruits, then at his coming those who belong to Christ. Then comes the end, when he hands over the kingdom to God the Father, after he has destroyed every ruler and every authority and power. For he must reign until he has put all his enemies under his feet. The last enemy to be destroyed is death. For ‘God has put all things in subjection under his feet.’ But when it says, ‘All things are put in subjection’, it is plain that this does not include the one who put all things in subjection under him. When all things are subjected to him, then the Son himself will also be subjected to the one who put all things in subjection under him, so that God may be all in all. Otherwise, what will those people do who receive baptism on behalf of the dead? If the dead are not raised at all, why are people baptized on their behalf? And why are we putting ourselves in danger every hour? I die every day! That is as certain, brothers and sisters, as my boasting of you a boast that I make in Christ Jesus our Lord. If with merely human hopes I fought with wild animals at Ephesus, what would I have gained by it? If the dead are not raised, ‘Let us eat and drink, for tomorrow we die.’Do not be deceived: ‘Bad company ruins good morals.’Come to a sober and right mind, and sin no more; for some people have no knowledge of God. I say this to your shame.”

The post إِحْذَرُوا أَنْ يُضِلَّكُم أَحَد! فكَثِيرُونَ سَيَأْتُونَ بِٱسْمِي قَائِلين: «أَنَا هُوَ المَسِيح! ويُضِلُّونَ الكَثِيرِين/Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, I am the Messiah & they will lead many astray appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

متغيّراتُ الثورةِ وثوابتُ الكيان
سجعان قزي/الجمهورية/18 تشرين الثاني/2019

اختَبر لبنانُ عبرَ تاريخِه تجاربَ الحربِ والمقاومةِ والتمرّدِ والعصيانِ والتظاهُرِ والفِتنِ الطائفيّة. وها هو يَكتشِفُ، موهولًا، للمرّةِ الأولى مظاهرَ الثورةِ وصراعَ الأجيال.

انّها مادّةٌ حديثةٌ حُقِنَت بها الشخصيّةُ اللبنانيّةُ والمجتمع. كان الشعبُ يَتوقُ إليها وكانت السلطةُ تخشاها. ولحظةَ يَتواجه الـتَــوْقُ والخَشيةُ يَبدأ الصراع، وساعةَ يَتعبُ الطرفان يَنطلق الحوار. لا نزال في دائرةِ الصراع. تَفاجأت السلطةُ بالحدثِ أكثرَ مما تَفاجأت بالجماهير. الجماهيرُ ستَعود إلى بيوتِها يومًا ما، أما الحدثُ فخرجَ من التاريخِ ولن يَعودَ إليه إلا بعدَ أن يُنهيَ مَهمّتَه. والتاريخُ مَليءٌ بثوراتٍ نَجحت وأخرى فَشِلت.

انتقل الشعبُ اللبنانيُّ من الخنوعِ والإحباطِ واللامبالاةِ إلى الاكتراثِ والتساؤلِ والرفضِ… فالثورة. إنها ثورةُ الفردِ في انتفاضةٍ جماعيّة. كنا نَشكو من غيبوبةِ الشعبِ، فإذا نحن أمامَ غيبوبةِ الحكم. وما لم تَتغيّر منظومةُ الحكمِ سيَتغيّرُ النظام، وإذا تَغيَّرَ النظامُ بمفهومِه الميثاقيِّ سيَتغيّر الكيانُ بمفهومِه الدُستوري.

نحن في مرحلةِ تغييراتٍ تاريخيّة. في مثل هذه المراحلِ تَغييرُ الكياناتِ أسهلُ من تغييرِ موظّفٍ في دائرةٍ حكوميّة. المرحلةُ تفوقُ خطورةً المراحلَ التأسيسيّةَ السالِفة. سابقًا كان هناك رعاةٌ وحماياتٌ وضماناتٌ وضوابطُ وحلفاءُ مَوْثوقون، وكانت هناك مرجِعيّاتٌ قادت المراحل الانتقالية: الكنيسةُ المارونيّةُ قادت بناءَ لبنان الكبير. الطبقةُ السياسيّةُ الوطنيّةُ قادت معركةَ استقلالِ لبنان. الأحزابُ الكبيرةُ بعمالِقتِها قادت الحربَ والمقاومةَ ضد التوطينِ والاحتلال.

المجلسُ النيابيُّ الـمُمَدَّدُ له قاد مفاوضاتِ «اتفاقِ الطائف» بتغطيةِ البطريرك صفير. من يقودُ عمليّةَ التغييرِ الجاريةِ اليوم؟ ومن «يَحمي» خِيارَ اللبنانيّين الدستوريّ؟… الجماهيرُ تثورُ لكنّها لا تقود.

لذلك سادَ الارتباكُ العامُّ على السلطةِ القديمةِ والانتفاضةِ المبتَكَرةِ على حدٍّ سَواء. كلاهما لا يَملِكُ فَهْرسَ الحدَثِ ولا طريقةَ الاستعمالِ. أُنعِمَ على الثورةِ اللبنانيّةِ بخريطةِ تّحرّكٍ إنّما لم يُنعَم عليها بخريطةِ حُكم، بل بأفكارٍ إصلاحيّةٍ كانت مطروحةً وطريحةً مِن قبلِ الانتفاضة. العفويّةُ ليست كلَّ الثورةِ، والشرعيّةُ ليست كلَّ السلطة. هكذا أَخفَقت السلطةُ في التعاطي مع الحدَث (تَعثّرُ التغييرِ الحكوميّ)، فيما بَدَت الانتفاضةُ قادرةً على التكيّفِ واستنفارِ الناس (انتصارُ مُرشِّحِها ملحم خلف في مركزِ نقيبِ المحامّين).

وفي كلِّ الحالات، حدودُ التغيير تَقِف عند عتبةِ الثوابتِ التاريخيّة. لا يجوزُ لأيِّ تحرّكٍ في الشارعِ مهما عَظُم ودامَ أن يُطيحَ خصوصيّةَ نشوءِ دولةِ لبنان وتعدُّديّتِها الحضاريّة. فالتعايشُ العَلمانيُّ بين المواطنين لا يُلغي التعايشَ الميثاقيَّ بين الطوائف، ولا يُلغي النضالاتِ السابقةَ والمقاومةَ اللبنانيّةَ والشهداءَ والتضحيّاتِ. ونحنُ الـمَـلدُوغين مِن السياسةِ الأميركيّةِ، والمتوجِّسين من تحوّلاتِ الشرقِ الأوسطِ ومن طموحاتِ بعضِ المكوّنات اللبنانيّة، تَتعذَّر علينا المغامرةُ بأسسِ الكِيانِ اللبنانيِّ وميثاقِه قبل معرفةِ هُوّيةِ الفريقِ السياسيِّ البديل وخِياراتِه الوطنيّة.

المعطياتُ اليومَ مختلفةٌ عمّا مضى: الانتفاضةُ تَنأى بجماهيرِها عن السياسةِ والميثاقِ والدستورِ والقضايا الخلافيّة. حزبُ الله يَظُنُّ أنّه قادرٌ على توجيهِ الانتفاضةِ نحو مؤتمرٍ تأسيسيّ. سياسِيّو الطوائف يَقودون، بموازاةِ الانتفاضةِ، معاركَ داخلَ طوائِفهم لتثبيتِ قوّتِهم بعضُهم ضِدَّ البعضِ الآخر.

الشعبُ يأمُلُ أنْ يُغيّرَ سلميًّا ما لم يَتغيّر سابقًا عسكريًّا بعد الحروبِ اللبنانيّةِ المتعاقِبة. الدولُ الرابِضةُ وراءَ الأحداثِ يَتقاسـمُها اتّجاهان: توظيفُ الحدثِ الكبيرِ في سبيلِ بناءِ لبنانَ حرٍّ فقط، أو استغلالُه ضِدَّ النفوذِ الإيرانيِّ في لبنانَ والمِنطقةِ؟

جيلُ لبنانَ الجديدِ في مُناخٍ آخر. شاءَ هذا الجيلُ المختلِفُ أن يَمْتَشِقَ مصيرَه، أن يَستعيدَ دولتَه من مُصادِريها، وأن يُوقِفَ مسلسلَ المعاناةِ التي عاشها آباؤه وأجدادُه منذ خمسيناتِ القرنِ الماضي إلى اليوم. قبلَ أن يَنتفضَ، صَـبَـرَ دهرًا، وتَرك وقتًا طويلًا للطبقةِ السياسيّةِ بجميعِ أجيالِها لتَبنيَ دولةً مستقبليّةً لوطنٍ تاريخيّ. توالت على حكمِ الدولةِ طبَقةُ المؤسِّسين وطبَقةُ الاستقلاليّين وطبَقةُ المنتخَبين، ثم طبَقةُ أمراءِ الحرب ونَسلُ هؤلاءِ الأمراءِ وطبقةُ اتفاقِ الطائف، ثم طبقةُ المحتلّين وطبقةُ وكلاءِ المحتلّين وطبقةُ المحرِّرين، وأخيرًا طبقةُ 8 و14 آذار وشَتاتُ التسويةِ الرئاسيّة. لم يَرَ هذا الجيلُ المختلِفُ، الزاهي الألوان، هذه الطبقاتِ تَحمِلُ إلى بلادِه السيادةَ والمناعة، فرصَ العملِ والضمانات، النزاهةَ والحوكمةَ الرشيدة، الحداثةَ والتقدميّةَ، والحلَّ وتقريرَ المصير. كان معظمُ تلك الطبقاتِ، لاسيّما في السنواتِ الثلاثينَ الماضيةِ، وكلاءَ احتلالٍ ووسطاءَ سفرٍ بين الشعبِ اللبنانيِّ وبلدانِ الهِجرة. كانوا تُجّارَ بَشَر.

أتى هذا الجيلُ بمقارَبةٍ مختلِفةٍ للمجتمعِ والوطنِ والدينِ ناتجةٍ عن اعتقادِه بأنَّ وطنـيّـتَـه تَـمُرُّ بعالميّتِه، وعالميّتَه تَـمُرُّ بانتمائِه الحضاريِّ، وانتماءَهُ الحضاريَّ يَـمُرُّ بالتضامنِ الاجتماعيّ. وظنَّ أنَّه بمعالجةِ القضايا الاقتصاديّةِ والاجتماعيّةِ والفكريّةِ يتجاوز الخلافاتِ السياسيّةَ والعقائديّةَ والدستوريّةَ التي تسَبَّبت بالقضايا الاقتصادية…

هذه المقاربةُ، على جِدّيتِها وبراءتِها، متأتّيةٌ من اندماجِ الجيلِ اللبنانيِّ الجديد بالعالمِ المجازيِّ المكوَّنِ من العولمةِ والتواصلِ الاجتماعيِّ والانتشارِ الدوليّ، لكنّها تَفتقرُ إلى اختبارِ الواقعِ الماديِّ والعَلاقاتِ المباشرةِ والمشاكلِ الحسيّةِ والثوابتِ الثقافيّةِ والتاريخيّةِ والديمغرافيّة. فالانتفاضةُ اليومَ كنايةٌ عن طيّارٍ يقود مُجسَّمَ طائرةٍ في مركزِ محاكاةٍ (simulation)، لكن يبقى عليه أن يَعرِفَ تطبيقَ هذه المحاكاةِ في قيادةِ طائرةٍ حقيقيّةٍ في الفضاءِ حيث المواجهةُ مع الطقسِ والرعدِ والعواصفِ والـمُنخَفضاتِ الجويّةِ والجاذبيّةِ والتوازنِ ونسبةِ الارتفاعِ وقُوّةِ الدفع.

الانتفاضةُ في لحظةٍ دقيقة: النقمةُ الشعبيّةُ والدوليّةُ تتعاظمُ على السلطة، وملامحُ التَفسُّخِ تَتسّربُ إلى الشارع. السلطةُ قويّةٌ بداعِميها أكثرَ مِـمّا هي قويّةٌ بشعبِها، بينما الانتفاضةُ قويّةٌ بشعبِها أكثرَ مِـمّا هي قويّةُ بداعِميها. وإذا كانت الانتفاضةُ ستَنتصرُ لأنّها شعبٌ، لا قيمةَ لأيِّ انتصارٍ إذا خَسِرنا لبنان. السلطةُ موَقّتةٌ والثورةُ مرحلةٌ، لكنَّ لبنانَ دائم.

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مع دخول الحراك الشعبي اللبناني شهره الثاني، واستقالة حكومة الرئيس سعد الحريري أسبوعها الثالث، يبدو أن السلطة الحاكمة في لبنان لا تزال تهرب إلى الأمام، متجاهلة ليس مطالب المنتفضين فحسب، بل حقيقة أن البلاد سقطت فعلاً في الهاوية، ولم تعد تحتمل ترف التعالي والتسويف، ولا خطأ العودة إلى السياسات السابقة.

والأخطر أن هذه السلطة الممثلة اليوم برئاسة الجمهورية و«التيار الوطني الحر» و«حزب الله»، وربما «حركة أمل»، قد تكون تستغل الحراك وانكفاء القوى السياسية الأخرى لتغيير الصيغة، لأن أداءها يشي شكلاً ومضموناً بأنها تصوّب سهامها على «اتفاق الطائف» والدستور الذي أفضى إليه. في الشكل، مجرد تسمية الوزير السابق محمد الصفدي، لرئاسة الحكومة العتيدة، قبل الاستشارات النيابية، تعدٍ صارخ على الدستور اللبناني، إذ إن رئيس الجمهورية تخطى بذلك صلاحياته، كما حددها الدستور، وألغى دور المجلس النيابي، ضارباً بعرض الحائط حقيقة أن النظام اللبناني هو نظام جمهوري برلماني، وليس نظاماً رئاسياً.

ويسعى الرئيس أيضاً، وحسب ما أعلنه في آخر مقابلة تلفزيونية له، إلى التوافق على التشكيلة الحكومية حتى قبل التكليف في انتهاك آخر للدستور، وتجاوز لصلاحيات الرئيس المكلّف ولدور المجلس النيابي أيضاً، لأن الرئيس المكلّف مدعو أيضاً، وفق الدستور، إلى إجراء استشارات نيابية ملزمة قبل التأليف.

ويأتي أيضاً الشرط الذي صدر عن أوساط رئاسة الجمهورية و«حزب الله»، إما الحريري وجبران باسيل معاً في الحكومة، وإما كلاهما خارجها، لينتقص من مقام رئاسة الحكومة، وهي ركن من أركان النظام السياسي توازي في أهميتها رئاسة الجمهورية ورئاسة مجلس النواب.

وما قصم ظهر البعير، هو أن الإعلان عن تسمية الصفدي، وعن موعد الاستشارات النيابية، جاء على لسان وزير الخارجية المستقيل وصهر الرئيس جبران باسيل، ولو بشكل غير رسمي، كما لو أنه بات وكيل رئيس الجمهورية والمرجعية في تشكيل الحكومات.

يدرك الجميع طبعاً أن باسيل ليس سوى الناطق باسم المرجعية الأساسي، وهي «حزب الله»، فبعد تسمية رئيس الجمهورية، وطبعاً رئيس مجلس النواب، بات «حزب الله» اليوم هو من يسمي رئيس الحكومة، ليس هذا فحسب، بل من يضع أيضاً البيان الوزاري، وقد حدد السيد حسن نصر الله في خطابه الأخير خطوطه العريضة: مكافحة الفساد، الانفتاح على سوريا وإيران، وفتح أسواق البلاد أمام الاستثمارات الصينية والإيرانية.
وللأمانة، نقول إن الرئيس الحريري ربما لم ينتبه لما يقوله الدستور، نظراً دخوله في مفاوضات حول التشكيلة الحكومية قبل تكليفه أو تكليف غيره، وأعلن أخيراً عن نيته منح الثقة لـ«حكومة الصفدي»، حتى قبل تكليفه رسمياً، وتشكيلها، والاطلاع على بيانها الوزاري!

ووسط كل هذه المخالفات، نادرة هي أصوات النواب الذين اعترضوا على التعدي على صلاحياتهم وعلى الدستور، في دليل حاسم على عدم صدقيتهم.

أما في المضمون، فهذه المخالفات الدستورية معطوفة على كل ما شهدناها سابقاً من بدع في عملية تشكيل الحكومات وعملها، من وضع آلية ومعايير لتأليف الحكومة، وفقاً للتمثيل النيابي (كمعيار باسيل القائل بحق كل أربعة نواب إنشاء كتلة وتمثيلها بوزير) إلى الثلث المعطل إلى اعتماد التوافقية، كل ذلك سعى إلى تحقيق الهدف الأكبر للانقلاب الذي أجراه «حزب الله» تدريجياً، وبالقانون، وهو إسقاط «اتفاق الطائف». وقد يكون الحزب وجد في الانتفاضة فرصة للانقضاض على هذا الاتفاق وصولاً إلى مؤتمر تأسيسي جديد يعكس مدى التغيير في موازين القوى المحلية، ويعيد إلى الرئاسة الأولى المارونية صلاحياتها على حساب دور رئاسة مجلس الوزراء السنيّة، لا سيما أن معركة الصلاحيات بين رئاستي الجمهورية والحكومة انطلقت مطلع عهد الرئيس عون.

يبدو جلياً أنه في ظل التطورات الإقليمية الحاصلة، واختلال ميزان القوى في الإقليم لصالح محور الممانعة وحلفائه الدوليين، تغيرت اللعبة وأهدافها: في السابق، عندما كانت الرئاسة المارونية تعرقل السياسة السورية، ومن خلفها الإيرانية، تمت «قصقصة» صلاحيات رئيس الجمهورية، وجُيرت لموقع الرئاسة السني ومجلس الوزراء مجتمعاً.

اليوم، ومع رئيس ماروني حليف للمحور السوري – الإيراني، صار المطلوب عكس ذلك تماماً، أي القضم من صلاحيات رئاسة الحكومة السنية لصالح صلاحيات رئيس الجمهورية، وقد بدأ ذلك يُطبق بواسطة الممارسة، وليس بالضرورة عبر تعديل النصوص القانونية، وقد لا يتأخر ذلك.

الحراك الشعبي جعل «حزب الله» أكثر عزماً على المضي في هذه السياسة، خصوصاً مع نجاح الانتفاضة العابرة للطوائف والمناطق والأحزاب في إسقاط ثلاثة أمور أساسية بالنسبة إليه:

– سقط ما يسمى الموقع المسيحي القوي الذي كان يتغنى به «التيار الوطني الحر»، إذ ثبت أنه فقد الكثير من شعبيته بما يتيح القول إنه لم يعد الممثل الأقوى للمسيحيين. ويكون الحزب بذلك قد خسر الغطاء المسيحي.

– خسر الحزب الغطاء السني الذي كان يتمتع به ويريحه إثر استقالة الرئيس الحريري.

– تشظي هيبة الحزب وسطوته أولاً عبر استقالة الحكومة، وهو الذي أعلن أنها لن تستقيل، وثانياً عبر مشاركة مناطق كثيرة جنوبية وبقاعية محسوبة عليه في الانتفاضة، واحتضانها لشعار «كلن يعني كلن».

فما هي الخيارات أمام «حزب الله» ضمن ثابتة عدم تخليه قيد أنملة عن مكاسبه ومكاسب راعيته إيران المحلية والإقليمية؟

في الواقع، ثمة خياران لا ثالث لهما. الخيار الأول هو التمسك بالتسوية، ولو بأشكال مختلفة، وهو يبحث عن غطاء سني يوافق عليه الرئيس الحريري، قد يكون الصفدي أو سواه، لأنه مدرك تماماً أن فقدانه مظلة الحريري سيكون مكلفاً محلياً ودولياً، وأن الدرع الأساسي الحامي له في المرحلة الراهنة هو التمسك بصيغة «التوافق بالقوة» التي أخضع لها الأطراف السياسية الفاعلة كافة.

إلى هذا، وبمعزل عن دينامية الانتفاضة، فإن معارضي الحزب من الطبقة السياسية ليسوا في حال تسمح لهم بتحدي هذا الواقع أو محاولة تغييره.

ولا ننسى أن كل الضغوطات الغربية بعامة، والأميركية بخاصة، التي يتعرض لها «حزب الله»، لا تستهدفه وجودياً، أو تسعى إلى عكس مكاسبه المحلية والإقليمية بقدر ما تسعى إلى دفع راعيته إيران إلى مفاوضات جديدة حول مشروعها النووي.

وإذا لم ينجح الحزب بتجميل التسوية، الخيار الثاني أمامه هو الانتقال إلى مرحلة المواجهة، واستخدام القوة لقمع الحراك، وتشكيل حكومة مواجهة، ولو كانت مطعمة ببعض الخبراء.

ومع أن «حزب الله» لا يحبذ مثل هذا الخيار، لا يصعب التكهن بنتائجه، خصوصاً لجهة جر لبنان سياسياً واقتصادياً إلى المحور الإيراني وحلفائه الدوليين.

ونعترف أن الوسائل المتاحة أمام مختلف القوى في لبنان للتصدي له ولتداعياته محدودة، اللهم باستثناء قدرة الانتفاضة على الصمود والاستمرار بزخمها.

في المحصلة النهائية، المشكلة اليوم في لبنان باتت تتخطى مسألة تشكيل الحكومة، لتصبح قضية تحديد وجهته رسمياً في الاصطفافات الإقليمية والدولية، وفق خريطة الطريق التي وضعها نصر الله، وفي الطريق إلى ذلك الإطاحة بـ«اتفاق الطائف»، والتأسيس لنظام رئاسي يدخل لبنان إلى منظومة دول الحزب الواحد إقليمياً ودولياً.

أما انتفاضة أو ثورة اللبنانيين، فيبدو أن الجميع يحاولون السير فوقها على اعتبار أنها حادث عرضي وغير مؤثر. ولعل هنا يكمن كعب أخيل هذه السلطة الحاكمة.

The post سام منسى: في لبنان يتم القفز فوق الانتفاضة لإسقاط الطائف وفرض نظام رئاسي يُلحق البلد بمحور إيران/باسيل مجرد ناطق باسم حزب الله appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019

وثائق استخباراتية تكشف: هكذا رسخت إيران نفوذها في العراق
الشرق الأوسط/18 تشرين الثاني/2019 

كشفت وثائق سرية تم تسريبها من داخل الاستخبارات الإيرانية، عن خطط إيران لفرض سيطرتها ونفوذها في العراق، والجهود التي قام بها الجواسيس الإيرانيون منذ سنوات لاختيار قادة البلاد.

والوثائق التي حصل عليها موقع «ذا إنترسيبت» وقام بمشاركتها مع صحيفة «نيويورك تايمز»، تتكون من مئات التقارير التي كتبها ضباط في وزارة الاستخبارات والأمن الإيرانية في عامي 2014 و2015.

وتكشف التسريبات نفوذ طهران الهائل في العراق، وقد أكدت أن رئيس الوزراء عادل عبد المهدي على وجه الخصوص كانت له علاقة خاصة مع إيران، منذ أن كان وزيراً للنفط في عام 2014.

وفي عام 2018، عندما أصبح المهدي رئيساً للوزراء، كان ينظر إليه كمرشح توافقي مقبول لدى كل من إيران والولايات المتحدة. وقد أكدت الوثائق أنه لا يمكن لأي سياسي عراقي أن يصبح رئيساً للوزراء دون مباركة إيران.

بالإضافة إلى ذلك، أشارت الوثائق إلى أن رئيس الوزراء العراقي الأسبق نوري المالكي، الذي ظل لأكثر من عقدين في المنفى في سوريا وإيران، كان الشخصية المفضلة لطهران، بينما كان ينظر لحيدر العبادي الذي تولى رئاسة الوزراء بعده على أنه أكثر ودية للغرب وأقل طائفية، إلا أن ذلك لم يدعُ إيران للقلق؛ حيث إن كثيراً من الأعضاء الرئيسيين في حكومة العبادي كانت لهم علاقات وثيقة معها.

وعلى سبيل المثال، فإن إبراهيم الجعفري، الذي كان قد شغل منصب وزير الخارجية في حكومة العبادي، كانت لديه علاقات وثيقة مع إيران، وفقاً للتسريبات. ولم ينكر الجعفري ذلك؛ لكنه قال إنه كان يتعامل دائماً مع دول أجنبية؛ لأن مصلحة العراق كانت تتطلب منه ذلك.

وأشارت الوثائق أيضاً إلى أن بيان جبر، الذي شغل منصب وزير الداخلية في 2005، واتُّهِم بإنشاء سجون سرية تعرض فيها مئات السجناء للتعذيب حتى الموت، صعقاً بالكهرباء، أو تم إطلاق النار عليهم، كان قريباً جداً من إيران.

وقالت الوثائق إن وزراء البلديات والاتصالات وحقوق الإنسان السابقين كانوا «في وئام تام وواحد مع إيران وشعبها»، وإن جميعهم أعضاء في منظمة «بدر»، وهي مجموعة سياسية وعسكرية أسستها إيران في الثمانينات لمعارضة صدام حسين.

وأنكر وزير البلديات السابق وجود علاقة وثيقة مع إيران، بينما اعترف وزير حقوق الإنسان السابق بقربه منها.

ومن جهته، قال وزير الاتصالات السابق إنه خدم العراق، وليس إيران، وأنه حافظ على علاقات مع دبلوماسيين من كثير من البلدان.

وفي خريف عام 2014، استقبل بيان جبر، الذي كان يشغل منصب وزير النقل والمواصلات حينها، قائد «فيلق القدس»، قاسم سليماني في مكتبه؛ حيث طلب منه سليماني السماح لإيران بالوصول إلى المجال الجوي العراقي لنقل طائرات محملة بالأسلحة وغيرها من الإمدادات لدعم نظام بشار الأسد، الأمر الذي قبله جبر.

ولم ينكر جبر ذلك؛ لكنه قال إن الرحلات الجوية من إيران إلى سوريا كانت تحمل الإمدادات الإنسانية والحجاج الدينيين المسافرين إلى سوريا لزيارة الأماكن المقدسة، وليس الأسلحة والإمدادات العسكرية.

جاء ذلك في الوقت الذي حاول فيه مسؤولو إدارة الرئيس الأميركي السابق باراك أوباما، إقناع الحكومة العراقية بإيقاف الرحلات الجوية الإيرانية عبر مجالهم الجوي.

وقد أشارت الوثائق إلى أن أوباما اعتبر أن سياسات رئيس الوزراء العراقي الأسبق نوري المالكي “القمعية ضد السنة”، أدت إلى ظهور تنظيم «داعش» الإرهابي.

وأشارت الوثائق إلى أنه في كل من العراق ولبنان وسوريا، يحدد «الحرس الثوري»، وخصوصاً قوات «فيلق القدس»، سياسات إيران. ويتم تعيين سفراء هذه الدول من الرتب العليا لـ«الحرس الثوري»، وليس من وزارة الخارجية.

وبعد انسحاب القوات الأميركية من العراق في عام 2011، نقلت إيران بعضاً من أفضل ضباطها من كل من وزارة الاستخبارات ومن جهاز الاستخبارات التابع لـ«الحرس الثوري» الإيراني إلى العراق، كما أسرعت بالبحث عن جاسوس من داخل وزارة الخارجية الأميركية، وفقاً للوثائق.

ولم يتم ذكر اسم مسؤول وزارة الخارجية الذي استعانت به إيران، إلا أنه تم وصفه على أنه شخص لديه قدره كبيرة على تقديم «رؤى استخباراتية حول خطط الحكومة الأميركية في العراق، سواء المتعلقة بـ(داعش) أو بأي عمليات سرية أخرى».

ووفقاً لتقرير «نيويورك تايمز» فقد أقر المسؤولون الإيرانيون بأن إيران تعتبر مراقبة النشاط الأميركي في العراق بعد الغزو الأميركي، ضرورة لبقائها وأمنها القومي.

من جهته، رفض حسن دانييفار سفير إيران لدى العراق من 2010 إلى 2017 ونائب قائد القوات البحرية لـ«الحرس الثوري» سابقاً، الإقرار بصحة هذه الوثائق؛ لكنه أشار إلى أن إيران لديها اليد العليا في جمع المعلومات في العراق. وأوضح قائلاً: «نعم، لدينا كثير من المعلومات من العراق حول قضايا متعددة؛ خصوصاً حول ما كانت تفعله أميركا هناك».

وكشفت التسريبات أيضاً أن مجزرة السنة في جرف الصخر عام 2014، مثال حي على أنواع الفظائع الطائفية التي ارتكبتها الجماعات المسلحة الموالية لـ«فيلق القدس» الإيراني.

فعندما طردت الميليشيات المدعومة من إيران المسلحين التابعين لـ«داعش» من جرف الصخر في أواخر عام 2014، أصبحت مدينة أشباح؛ حيث تم تشريد عشرات الآلاف من السنة، وتم العثور على سياسي محلي، هو العضو السني الوحيد في المجلس الإقليمي، مقتولاً برصاصة في رأسه.

وتظهر الوثائق أيضاً تلقي إيران عقوداً لمياه المجاري وتنقية المياه، بعد دفعها رشوة قيمتها 16 مليون دولار لأحد أعضاء البرلمان.

يذكر أن سليماني كان قد زار العراق في منتصف شهر أكتوبر (تشرين الأول) الماضي، لإقناع حليف له في البرلمان العراقي بمساعدة رئيس الوزراء عادل عبد المهدي على البقاء في منصبه، مع تصاعد الاضطرابات المطالبة بالإطاحة به.

Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019

Hundreds of pages of Iranian intelligence documents detailing how Iran managed to gain influence over neighboring Iraq have been leaked.

Obtained by The New York Times and The Intercept, the 700 pages of Iranian intelligence cables show Tehran’s efforts to embed itself in Iraq, including the role Iranian spies played in appointing Iraqi officials.

Dating between 2014 and 2015, they revealed that Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi shared a “special relationship” with Tehran when he served as oil minister in 2014. The exact nature of that relationship is not detailed in the cable.

“No Iraqi politician can become prime minister without Iran’s blessing, and Abdul Mahdi, when he secured the premiership in 2018, was seen as a compromise candidate acceptable to both Iran and the United States,” reported The Intercept.

Former PM Nouri al-Maliki, meanwhile, spent more than two decades in exile in Syria and Iran. He was a favorite of Tehran’s and served as premier between 2006 and 2014. His replacement, the British-educated Haidar al-Abadi, was seen as more friendly to the West and less sectarian.

This did not worry the Iranians, because several ministers in Abadi’s government enjoyed close ties with Tehran.

For example, Ibrahim al-Jafari — who had previously served as Iraqi prime minister and by late 2014 was the foreign minister — was, like Abdul Mahdi, identified as having a “special relationship” with Iran. In an interview, Jafari did not deny that he had close relations with Iran, but said he had always dealt with foreign countries based on the interests of Iraq.

The transportation minister — Bayan Jabr, who had led the Iraqi Interior Ministry at a time when hundreds of prisoners were tortured to death with electric drills or summarily shot by death squads — was deemed to be “very close” to Iran. When it came to Iraq’s education minister, one cable said: “We will have no problem with him.”

The former ministers of municipalities, communications, and human rights were all members of the Badr Organization, a political and military group established by Iran in the 1980s to oppose Saddam Hussein.

The former minister of municipalities denied having a close relationship with Iran, while the former human rights minister did. The former minister of communications said that he served Iraq, not Iran, and that he maintained relationships with diplomats from many countries.

In fall 2014, Jabr, then the transportation minister, welcomed Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander, to his office. Soleimani had come to ask a favor: Iran needed access to Iraqi airspace to fly planeloads of weapons and other supplies to support the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad in its fight against opposition factions.

Jabr agreed.

Jabr confirmed the meeting with Soleimani, but said the flights from Iran to Syria carried humanitarian supplies and religious pilgrims traveling to Syria to visit holy sites, not weapons and military supplies to aid Assad as American officials believed.

Meanwhile, the administration of Barack Obama believed that Maliki’s “draconian policies and crackdowns on Iraqi Sunnis had helped lead to the rise of the ISIS group,” reported The Intercept.

“In Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, which Iran considers crucial to its national security, the Revolutionary Guards — and in particular its Quds Force, led by Soleimani — determines Iran’s policies.

“Ambassadors to those countries are appointed from the senior ranks of the Guards, not the foreign ministry, which oversees the intelligence ministry, according to several advisers to current and past Iranian administrations.”

According to the reports, after the American troop withdrawal in 2011, Iran moved quickly to add former CIA informants to its payroll. One undated section of an intelligence ministry cable shows that Iran began the process of recruiting a spy inside the State Department.

The State Department official is not named in the cable, but the person is described as someone who would be able to provide “intelligence insights into the US government’s plans in Iraq, whether it is for dealing with ISIS or any other covert operations.”

In interviews, Iranian officials acknowledged that Iran viewed surveillance of American activity in Iraq after the United States invasion as critical to its survival and national security.

When reached by telephone by The Intercept, Hassan Danaiefar, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq from 2010 to 2017 and a former deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces, declined to directly address the existence of the cables or their release, but he did suggest that Iran had the upper hand in information gathering in Iraq.

“Yes, we have a lot of information from Iraq on multiple issues, especially about what America was doing there,” he said.

The cables also tackled the 2014 massacre of Sunnis in the farming community of Jurf al-Sakhar. It was a vivid example of the kinds of sectarian atrocities committed by armed groups loyal to Iran’s Quds Force.

Jurf al-Sakhar, which lies just east of Fallujah in the Euphrates River Valley, is lush with orange trees and palm groves. It was overrun by the ISIS in 2014, giving militants a foothold from which they could launch attacks on the cities of Karbala and Najaf.

When militias supported by Iran drove the militants out of Jurf al-Sakhar in late 2014, the first major victory over ISIS, it became a ghost town. Tens of thousands were displaced, and a local politician, the only Sunni member on the provincial council, was found with a bullet hole through his head.
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The post وثائق استخباراتية تكشف: هكذا رسخت إيران نفوذها في العراق/Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

Detailed LCCC English News Bulletin For November 19/2019

Click Here to read the whole and detailed LCCC English News Bulletin for November 19/2019

The post Detailed LCCC English News Bulletin For November 19/2019 appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For November 18-19/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 33th Day
Compiled By: Elias Bejjani
November 18-19/2019

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 18-18/2019
Lebanon Uprising Enters Day 33
Lebanon’s Army Chief Defends Protester Arrests
Lebanon is a sinking ship, parliament speaker warns
Jumblat Says High Officials ‘Schizophrenic’
Al-Hassan Discusses Legislative Session Security Measures with ISF, Army Chiefs
Geagea chairs ‘Strong Lebanon’ bloc meeting/ LF 15 MP’s will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
Hariri chairs Future bureaus meeting
‘Democratic Gathering’ bloc convenes to discuss political situation/Will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
Lebanese banks to reopen as withdrawal limits made official/The country’s parliament speaker called it a ‘sinking ship’
Banks to Reopen Tuesday after Employees End Strike
U.S. Slams ‘Russian Attempts’ to Miscast Lebanon Protests as ‘U.S. Plot’
Army Chief Vows to Protect Protesters
Hariri Still Insisting on Technocrat Govt., Report Says
LF, PSP, Kataeb, Independents to Boycott Tuesday’s Legislative Session
Hariri Congratulates Khalaf on Being Elected Head of Bar Association
Independent Lawyer Defeats Ruling Class in Beirut Bar Elections
Lebanon Protests Test Hezbollah’s Role as Shi’ites’ Champion
Lebanese Held by Israel after Jumping Fence Handed to Army
Lebanese Protests Test Hizbullah’s Role as ‘Shiites’ Champion’
Lebanon’s Kataeb Party to boycott parliament session

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News published on November 18-19/2019
Lebanon Uprising Enters Day 33
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Protests continue in Lebanon Monday as an unprecedented protest movement against the ruling elite entered day 33 with the country in the grip of political and economic turmoil. In north Lebanon, and other areas students led the protests as they skipped classes with some blocking the entrance to the Beirut Arab University branch in al-Dibbiyeh. Others at the Lebanese University refused to attend classes. Protesters blocked the school entrance of Bakhoun in Miniyeh. Students held a sit-in in front of the offices of the Finance Ministry in Tripoli preventing access for employees. They also blocked several state institutions. In Beirut they rallied in front of the Education Ministry. Demonstrators are demanding a complete overhaul of the political class and for a new government of technocrats not affiliated with traditional parties. Protests have somewhat calmed down in Beirut, but are all prepared to ban the parliament from convening on Tuesday. They have called for the formation of a human chain around the parliament premises in Beirut’s Nejmeh Square. Speaker Nabih Berri had several times postponed a legislative session to elect the secretariat and committee members. Last week he rescheduled it to November 18. The leaderless pan-sectarian movement has swept the Mediterranean country since October 17, prompting the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s government. Protesters have decried everything from unemployment to chronic power cuts and say they are fed up with the same families dominating government institutions since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. No date has been set for parliamentary consultations required to pave the way for a new cabinet line-up and the country has been paralyzed by school and bank closures.

Lebanon’s Army Chief Defends Protester Arrests
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Lebanon’s army chief, General Joseph Aoun, said Sunday that recent arrests against protesters targeted individuals who had sought to incite riots and violence and who had prevented the military from carrying out its duties. He also stressed that the closure of roads by protesters was unacceptable. He called for steering clear from rumors that only serve to drive a wedge between the people and military. “History will show that the Lebanese army saved Lebanon,” he underlined during an inspection of troops deployed in Beirut and the Mount Lebanon region. Since October 17, Lebanon has been plunged in massive anti-government protests that are demanding the ouster of the current political class, whom demonstrators blame for rampant corruption and the country’s worst economic crisis since the civil war. Protesters have sought to block roads in a bid to make their voices heard. The military recently arrested several demonstrators. Aoun stressed that the army is “responsible for the security of demonstrators and other citizens,” praising their “high level of awareness” in preventing the rallies from spiraling into violence. He revealed that the arrests included non-Lebanese people and others found to be in possession of drugs. “The army is working and acting in the manner it deems fit,” he stressed. Aoun commended the “level of professionalism, discipline, high morality and courage demonstrated by the army in carrying out all the tasks entrusted to it with honor, sacrifice and loyalty.”Addressing the troops, he hailed their devotion and dedication to their oath in serving the country and in proving that the military protects all citizens, regardless of their affiliations or views.

Lebanon is a sinking ship, parliament speaker warns
Reuters, Beirut/Monday, 18 November 2019
Lebanon is like a sinking ship that will go under unless action is taken, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as saying on Monday, referring to the country’s deep economic and political crisis. Berri, an ally of Lebanese Hezbollah, told visitors that efforts to form a new government were “completely frozen” and awaiting developments at any moment, the newspaper al-Joumhuria reported. Struggling with a massive public debt and economic stagnation, Lebanon has sunk into major political trouble since protests erupted against its ruling elite a month ago, leading Prime Minister Saad Hariri to quit on Oct. 29.
On Sunday, banks, which have mostly been closed since the protests began, announced temporary measures including a weekly cap of $1,000 on cash withdrawals and restricting transfers abroad to cover urgent personal spending only. A bank staff union will decide later on Monday whether to lift a strike that has kept the banks shut for the past week. Efforts to form a new government, needed to enact urgent reforms, hit a setback at the weekend when former finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy for the post of prime minister, sparking bitter recriminations. Hezbollah said “political understandings” would take place between “the parties and even with leaders of the protest movement” to form a new government, without giving further details. Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem, in an interview with Iranian media broadcast by the group’s television station al-Manar, said the new government’s agenda would help to calm down the streets. Both Hezbollah and Berri want Hariri to be prime minister again. Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist group by the US. Berri said he still hoped Hariri would agree to form the new cabinet, al-Joumhuria reported. “The country is like a ship that is sinking little by little,” the paper quoted him as saying. “If we don’t take the necessary steps, it will sink entirely.”An-Nahar newspaper quoted Berri as likening the situation of the Lebanese people to that of passengers on the Titanic, the passenger liner that sank in 1912 after hitting an iceberg. Some protesters had rejected the potential nomination of Safadi, a prominent businessman and former lawmaker from the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli, saying he is part of a political elite they want ousted. Lebanon’s prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, according to its sectarian power-sharing system.

Jumblat Says High Officials ‘Schizophrenic’
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Progressive Socialist Party leader ex-MP Walid Jumblat on Monday slammed the country’s top decision-making authority whom he said was “schizophrenic,” as the country enters day 33 of nationwide protests demanding an overhaul of the political class. “Schizophrenia prevails in the higher decision-making circles, which cannot cede power in exchange for a modern transitional alternative to the Third Republic, now that the Second Republic has died,” said Jumblat in a tweet, referring to the term of President Michel Aoun. “More importantly, the PSP believes that modernization and change are important in order to meet the challenges. To be or not to be…” he added. Nationwide protests erupted in Lebanon on Oct 17 demanding an overhaul of the entire political class. Hariri resigned on Oct. 29 “in response to protesters’ demands.” Since his resignation, parties have not been able to form a new government due to political conflicts. On Sunday, the political crisis worsened when the outgoing prime minister (Hariri) harshly criticized the Free Patriotic Movement –the party of the country’s president– blaming it for weeks of delay in forming a new Cabinet amid ongoing anti-government protests. Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary blocs’ leaders to name a new premier, nearly three weeks after Hariri resigned. Some major factions in Lebanon’s sectarian political system want to keep Hariri in the new government. But they want him to form a cabinet of politicians and technocrats. He’s insisting on only technocrats. Aoun’s party on Sunday responded that Hariri’s stance intends to dominate the new Cabinet by insisting “it’s either me or no one else in the government.”The exchange of blame and criticism between Hariri’s office and Aoun’s party come as Lebanon is passing through its worst economic and financial crisis in decades. Lebanon is one of the most heavily indebted countries in the world and was already dealing with a severe fiscal crisis before the protests began, one rooted in years of heavy borrowing and expensive patronage networks run by entrenched political parties.

Al-Hassan Discusses Legislative Session Security Measures with ISF, Army Chiefs
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Caretaker Interior Minister Raya al-Hassan on Monday met with Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman to discuss the security measures that will be taken by the ISF during Tuesday’s parliamentary session.
Al-Hassan also held phone talks with Army Commander General Joseph Aoun during the meeting to “coordinate the security steps that will be taken,” the National News Agency said. MTV meanwhile reported that protesters have called for gathering Tuesday at 7:00 am at Beirut’s Martyrs Square to block roads and prevent the controversial legislative session from taking place.
“Protesters have held Speaker Nabih Berri responsible for any bloodshed tomorrow should he insist on holding the legislative session,” MTV added.
A controversial general amnesty law is on the agenda of the legislative session.
Speaker Nabih Berri had postponed the session last Tuesday over “security concerns.”Protesters have vowed to prevent the session from being held through blocking all entrances leading to parliament.

Sami Gemayel says will boycott Parliament session tomorrow
NNA//November 16/2019
Kataeb Party leader, MP Sami Gemayel, on Monday announced that he would be boycotting the House of Parliament’s session tomorrow.
“We have been informed that it will be a secret session void of the laws that are being demanded by the people,” Gemayel said. He also pointed out that the law to abolish the pensions of former deputies, electronic voting, and reform laws were not on the agenda as well. He finally highlighted the importance of giving utmost priority for designation, deeming it the responsibility of the President of the Republic.

Geagea chairs ‘Strong Lebanon’ bloc meeting/ LF 15 MP’s will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
LCCC/NNA/November 16/2019
The “Strong Republic” bloc on Monday held its regular meeting in Maarab under the chairmanship of Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea. After the meeting Geagea declared in a press conference that the LF 15 MP’s will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow and called on president Aoun to start the mendatory consultations in a bid to assign a PM to form a new government

Hariri chairs Future bureaus meeting
NNA/November 16/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri chaired this afternoon at the Center House a meeting of the political and executive bureaus of the Future movement..Discussions reportedly focused on the political situation, particularly the circumstances related to government formation process.

‘Democratic Gathering’ bloc convenes to discuss political situation/Will boycott the parliamentary session of tomorrow
NNA//November 16/2019
The “Democratic Gathering” bloc convened this evening in Clemenceau under the chairmanship of MP Teymour Jumblatt. As per a statement by the bloc, the meeting discussed “the agenda of the Parliamentary session and the current political situation.”

Lebanese banks to reopen as withdrawal limits made official/The country’s parliament speaker called it a ‘sinking ship’
The National/November 18/2019
Lebanon’s bank staff union announced on Monday that it is ending a week-long strike after increased security and new regulations that make limits on withdrawal and dollar transfers official.
The union said Monday banks will reopen the following day. Banks have been at the centre of anti-government protests, as demonstrators accused them of corruption and mismanagement. They had closed with the eruption of protests on October 17, opening only for a week. Depositers then rushed in to withdraw money, but banks had begun imposing informal capital controls that angered many clients and added to the turmoil, prompting the employees’ strike. The banks had been closed since November 12 because of a strike that the bank employees’ federation said was over security concerns by staff facing intimidation from clients demanding their money.
On Saturday, security forces said they will boost security around banks. A day later, the Banks Association declared formal controls, limiting withdrawals to $1,000 per week, and transfers abroad to “urgent matters.” On Monday, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was quoted as saying that Lebanon is like a sinking ship that will go under unless action is taken, referring to the country’s deep economic and political crisis. Mr Berri, an ally of the powerful Shi’ite group Hezbollah, told visitors that efforts to form a new government were “completely frozen” and awaiting developments at any moment, the newspaper Al Joumhuria reported. Struggling with a massive public debt and economic stagnation, Lebanon has sunk into major political trouble since protests erupted against its ruling elite a month ago, leading Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri to quit on October 29.
On Sunday, banks, which have mostly been closed since the protests began, announced temporary measures including a weekly cap of $1,000 on cash withdrawals and restricting transfers abroad to cover urgent personal spending only. A bank staff union will decide later on Monday whether to lift a strike that has kept the banks shut for the past week.
Efforts to form a new government, needed to enact urgent reforms, hit a setback at the weekend when former finance minister Mohammad Safadi withdrew his candidacy for the post of prime minister, sparking bitter recriminations. Hezbollah, a heavily armed group backed by Iran, said “political understandings” would take place between “the parties and even with leaders of the protest movement” to form a new government, without giving further details.Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Kassem, in an interview with Iranian media broadcast by the group’s television station Al Manar, said the new government’s agenda would help to calm down the streets. Both Hezbollah and Mr Berri want Mr Hariri, who is aligned with Gulf Arab and Western states, to be prime minister again. Hezbollah is classified as a terrorist group by the United States. Mr Berri said he still hoped Mr Hariri would agree to form the new cabinet, Al Joumhuria reported. “The country is like a ship that is sinking little by little,” the paper quoted him as saying. “If we don’t take the necessary steps, it will sink entirely.” An-Nahar newspaper quoted Mr Berri as likening the situation of the Lebanese people to that of passengers on the Titanic, the passenger liner that sank in 1912 after hitting an iceberg. Some protesters had rejected the potential nomination of Mr Safadi, a prominent businessman and former lawmaker from the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli, saying he is part of a political elite they want ousted.
Lebanon’s prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, according to its sectarian power-sharing system.

Banks to Reopen Tuesday after Employees End Strike
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Lebanon’s banks will reopen Tuesday after around a one-week strike by their employees, the employees’ union said. In a statement, the executive council of the Federation of Syndicates of Banks Employees in Lebanon announced the end of the strike and said employees will resume their work on Tuesday. Speaking at a press conference later in the day, a Federation spokesman said “it is unacceptable to say that the Federation had conspired with the Association of Banks against the Lebanese.” “The security plan presented by the Interior Ministry is sufficient to create the appropriate climate,” he added. LBCI television had reported that the re-opening decision was taken after the Association of Banks put the Federation in the picture of the Interior Ministry’s security plan that is aimed at ensuring the safety of bank employees amid the turbulent situations in the country. The Association also agreed with the Union on a host of new and “unified” banking measures aimed at preserving financial stability. Employees had cited security concerns upon declaring their strike. Banks have been at the center of anti-government protests, as demonstrators accused them of corruption and mismanagement. They had closed with the eruption of protests on Oct. 17, opening only for a week. Depositors then rushed in to withdraw money, but banks had begun imposing informal capital controls that angered many clients and added to the turmoil, prompting the employees’ strike. On Saturday, security forces said they will boost security around banks. A day later, the Banks Association declared formal controls, limiting withdrawals to $1,000 per week, and transfers abroad to “urgent matters.”

U.S. Slams ‘Russian Attempts’ to Miscast Lebanon Protests as ‘U.S. Plot’
Naharnet/November 18/2019
The U.S. State Department on Monday accused the Russian government of seeking to “cast doubt on the authenticity of the Lebanese people’s demand to end endemic corruption.”“Russian attempts to miscast the Lebanese people’s resolve as a U.S. plot follow a well-worn playbook,” State Department Spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said. “We proudly stand with the Lebanese people,” she added.

Army Chief Vows to Protect Protesters
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun toured several areas around the country, visiting troops and vowing to protect the protesters. Aoun said Sunday that protests in Lebanon have witnessed less violence than other places including Iraq, Iran, Hong Kong, Bolivia and Paris. “We did not stop anyone who is protesting in squares, but when they want to close roads and harass people we will intervene,” the general said, referring to some activists who closed roads around the country before the army opened them by force.
“How many people are dying in Iraq every day?” the commander said. More than 320 Iraqi protesters have been killed by security forces in Iraq since the beginning of October. He said an investigation is underway in the case of a protester (Alaa Abu Fakhr) killed by a soldier last week in southern Beirut.
Nationwide demonstrations began on Oct. 17 against new taxes on WhatsApp calls amid a plunging economy. The protesters now are calling for the downfall of the political elite who have run the country since the 1975-90 civil war.

Hariri Still Insisting on Technocrat Govt., Report Says 
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday reportedly announced that he is still insisting on forming a technocrat government. “Let them go to binding parliamentary consultations and I’m still committed to forming a government of experts,” Hariri told al-Mustaqbal Movement’s political bureau according to LBCI television. An official statement issued by Hariri’s office said the caretaker PM presided over a politburo meeting and that discussions “tackled the general political situations, especially the circumstances related to the government formation process.”

LF, PSP, Kataeb, Independents to Boycott Tuesday’s Legislative Session
Naharnet/November 18/2019
The MPs of the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party, the Kataeb Party and the parliament’s independent MPs will not take part in Tuesday’s controversial legislative session, TV networks said. Kataeb chief MP Sami Gemayel announced the boycott of the session in a live video on his Facebook page, noting that the session “will not be public” and “reporters will not be able to attend it.” “We have been informed that the session’s agenda does not include any law demanded by the Lebanese, such as the law on the judiciary’s independence, the law on recovering stolen funds and the law on lifting bank secrecy,” Gemayel added. “The priority today is for designating a new premier,” Gemayel stressed, calling on President Michel Aoun to “stop the delay in calling for (binding parliamentary) consultations.” “In response to the demands of the youths present on the ground, we declare our boycott of tomorrow’s parliamentary session,” he said. MP Osama Saad, whose supporters are actively taking part in the protest movement that has been sweeping Lebanon since October 17, also announced his boycott of the session. “Neither the uprising’s demands nor people’s priorities are on the agenda and there will be no discussions on the means to overcome the dangerous, fateful crisis that the country is going through,” Saad said. MP Hadi Abu al-Hosn of the Progressive Socialist Party meanwhile confirmed that the MPs of the Democratic Gathering will not attend the session, saying “the priority remains for the parliamentary consultations” to name a new premier. “The first step towards reform should be the adoption of a law on the judiciary’s independence,” he said. A controversial general amnesty law is on the agenda of the legislative session. Speaker Nabih Berri had postponed the session last Tuesday over “security concerns.”
Protesters have vowed to prevent the session from being held through blocking all entrances leading to parliament.

Hariri Congratulates Khalaf on Being Elected Head of Bar Association
Naharnet/November 18/2019
Caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday called the new president of the Beirut Bar Association Melhem Khalaf, congratulating him on his election and “wishing him success in his mission,” Hariri’s office said. Civil society activist Khalaf, who was backed by the protest movement that has been sweeping the country since October 17, scored a precious win for the nascent movement over the country’s established political parties. Speaking after he was declared the winner, Khalaf saluted “the enthusiasts of democracy,” hoping democracy will renew all institutions.

Independent Lawyer Defeats Ruling Class in Beirut Bar Elections
Beirut – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Independent lawyers in Lebanon achieved an exceptional victory in Sunday’s elections for the Beirut Bar Association after Melhem Khalaf defeated a candidate supported by the country’s political parties.
Khalaf won with 2,341 votes against Nader Gaspard. Immediately after announcing the results, aired live on local television, lawyers gathering at the Justice Palace in Beirut chanted: “Revolution, revolution,” reminiscent of anti-government protesters who have gathered in public squares across Lebanon since Oct. 17. Lawyers then recited together the national anthem. “We hope that the joyful scene we have witnessed today would extend to the whole country for the establishment of democracy and the renewal of the spirit of institutions, which should protect the citizens,” Khalaf said. He stressed that the Bar Association would protect “public freedoms and human rights.”Commenting on Khalaf’s election, former Minister Boutros Harb said that the result of the Association’s election was the biggest blow to the ruling authority since the eruption of protests “because it proved that the overwhelming majority of our people reject the rule of mafias.”“It’s the first democratic victory among many more victories to come,” he remarked. The head of the Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, stressed that the lawyers said their word. “The train of change is on the right track. The journey, which began from the Bar Association today in the face of partisanship, will not stop. Congratulations to our colleague Melhem Khalaf. We hope our homeland will be restored,” Gemayel said. MP Shamil Roukoz, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law who recently announced his withdrawal from the ruling ‘Strong Lebanon’ parliamentary bloc, congratulated the new head of the Beirut Bar Association on his election. “We hope that the Association would at this stage play a role to defend rights and achieve justice,” he said, calling on “everyone to review the results, draw lessons, and adhere to (Lebanon’s) principles, instead of betting on interest-based alliances.”

Lebanon Protests Test Hezbollah’s Role as Shi’ites’ Champion
The Associated Press/November 18/2019
Though they agree with Hezbollah’s ‘resistance’ against Israel, demonstrators blast the group’s silence on corruption and poverty
Young men chanting the “people want to bring down the regime” gathered outside the office of Lebanese legislator Mohammed Raad, the powerful head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc. One shirtless man grabbed a metal rod and swung it at the sign bearing Raad’s name, knocking it out of place as others cheered. It was a rare scene in the southern market town of Nabatiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold. The protests engulfing Lebanon have united many across sectarian lines and shattered taboos, with some taking aim at leaders from their own sects, illustrating a new, unfamiliar challenge posed to the militant group. Iranian-backed Hezbollah built a reputation among supporters as a champion of the poor and a defender of Lebanon against Israel’s much more powerful military. It and its Shi’ite ally, the Amal party, have enjoyed overwhelming backing among the Shi’ite community since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, making them a political powerhouse that, along with allies, has dominated recent governments. But now many protesters group Hezbollah into the ruling class they are revolting against, blaming it for wrecking the economy with years of corruption and mismanagement. Protesters want that entire political elite out. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and Amal’s chief, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, have not been spared. “All of them means all of them, and Nasrallah is one of them,” protesters have chanted at some Beirut rallies. The demonstrations that erupted October 17 spread throughout the country, including predominantly Shi’ite areas in the south and the eastern Bekaa Valley. “The heavy participation of the Shi’ites … posed a main challenge: that there’s a large number from the sect that doesn’t accept the current situation,” said Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. “That’s why there was a swift and decisive decision to nip this in the bud.”

Lebanese Held by Israel after Jumping Fence Handed to Army
Naharnet/November 18/2019
The Lebanese army received on Monday from the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a Lebanese citizen who was arrested by Israeli military after crossing the northern border of the occupied territories of Palestine from Lebanon. Investigations were opened into the incident under the supervision of related authority. On Saturday, the state-run National News Agency said Jaafar Mohammed Moustafa jumped over the border fence into Israel after shooting two people on the Lebanese side of the frontier. The Israeli military said it arrested the man and that he was held for questioning. Israel has been on high alert since August, when its aircraft struck targets in Syria and Lebanon linked to Iran and its regional proxy, Hizbullah. In September, brief cross-border fighting erupted after Hizbullah fired a barrage of missiles in response to Israeli airstrikes.

Lebanese Protests Test Hizbullah’s Role as ‘Shiites’ Champion’
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 18/2019
Lebanon’s protests have shown unusual, overt anger at the country’s powerhouse, Hizbullah. The Shiite group has long enjoyed a reputation among its supporters as a champion of the poor and defender of the country against Israel. That’s helped it dominate Lebanon’s political scene.
But now protesters want that entire political elite out — including Hizbullah — and even some among its Shiite supporters are angry over economic woes. Hizbullah and its ally, the Amal party, have enjoyed overwhelming backing among the Shiite community since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, making them a political powerhouse that has dominated recent governments. But now many protesters group Hizbullah into the ruling class that they are revolting against and blame for wrecking the economy with years of corruption and mismanagement.

Lebanon’s Kataeb Party to boycott parliament session
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English/Monday, 18 November 2019
Lebanon’s Kataeb Party said it will boycott a legislative session scheduled for Tuesday to vote on measures related to corruption, a general amnesty, and pensions. Almost three weeks after Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned amid massive anti-government protests, President Michel Aoun has yet to call for consultations with parliamentary bloc leaders to name a new premier. The party’s leader and member of parliament Sami Gemayel has voiced criticism of the ruling class amid the unprecedented protests that are engulfing Lebanon since October 17. Local media reported that many officials too have criticized the holding of the legislative session on Tuesday as being unconstitutional as well as failing to respond to the demands of protesters. As per the Constitution, lawmakers must discuss and endorse the state budget for the upcoming year during Tuesday’s legislative session before passing any new measures or draft laws.

Titles For The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 18-19/2019
Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export./Maya Carlin/Jerusalem Post/November 18/2019
AMCD Applauds Secretary Pompeo for Supporting Civil Unrest in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon -Need to Appoint Special Task Force/EINPresswire.com/November 18, 2019
Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq/Asharq Al-AwsatNovember 18/2019
Lebanese Eurobonds, inevitable default or trade of a lifetime/Dan Azzi/Annahar/November 18/2019
Matbakh El Balad: The initiative that feeds 1000 Lebanese protesters a day/Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/November 18/2019
The Ravages of Inequality/The Lebanese are united in revolt, but their political system is not made to calm their rage./Lydia Assouad/Carnegie MEC/November 18/2019

The Latest Lebanese LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 18-19/2019
Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export.
ميا كارلن/جيرازلم بوست: حزب الله بالتأكيد هو أهم صادرات إيران الناجحة
Maya Carlin/Jerusalem Post/November 18/2019
Could uprisings in Iraq and Lebanon, coupled with US sanctions, permanently impair Iran’s influence in the region?
In the past few weeks, frustrated and fed-up demonstrators have taken to the streets of Lebanon and Iraq to voice grievances against their governments. The perception of Iranian infiltration and influence certainly continues to impact this political shake-up in both regions.
These protests have toppled two governments in just three days. Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s prime minister, announced his resignation last week. Iraq’s President Barham Salih stated that Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi had also agreed to resign from office once a successor is decided upon.
In both Iraq and Lebanon, political factions are divided by religions and sects. These government systems are designed to limit sectarian conflicts by ensuring a sharing of power to different communities. However, in both regions, prominent Shia parties are conjoined with Iran. Since protesters are demanding an end to their government’s power-sharing system, Tehran is in trouble.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced via Twitter on Thursday that, “The people [protesters] have justifiable demands, but they should know their demands can only be fulfilled within the legal structure and framework of their country. When the legal structure is disrupted in a country, no action can be carried out.”This statement, riddled with irony, completely discounts the revolution which birthed the government Khamenei currently leads. The ayatollah also verified how deeply entrenched Hezbollah has become in Lebanon’s political makeup.
Hezbollah is certainly the Islamic Republic of Iran’s most successful export. For over two decades, Tehran has played the role of puppet-master in Beirut, attempting to counter the influence of its enemies: the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah’s critical influence in the region was demonstrated during the 2006 war with Israel and with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) intervention in the Syrian conflict.
Although Hezbollah’s military wing was rightfully designated as a terrorist organization in April by US President Donald Trump, the organization’s military and political wings work in tandem to export the regime’s disturbing agenda. In 2017, the US State Department identified more than 250 operatives and 150 companies with Hezbollah ties. Last year, the details of Project Cassandra exposed the sophistication and breadth of Hezbollah’s billion-dollar criminal enterprise.
Since Tehran heavily invests in Hezbollah’s role globally, these protests do not bode well for the regime. Iranian leadership clearly grasps the magnitude of these demonstrations since its officials have attempted to paint them as manifestations of foreign meddling. Khamenei has accused “US and Western intelligence services, with the financial backing of evil countries,” of orchestrating these protests.
In Iraq, anti-Iran sentiment has monopolized the demonstrations. Last week in Baghdad, protesters were pictured torching an Iranian flag. On Sunday, they threw gasoline bombs at the Iranian Consulate in the country’s capital of Karbala. The former head of the Iraqi National Archives explained that, “the revolution is not anti-American, it is anti-Iran; it is anti-religion – anti-political religion, not religion as such.” Pro-Iranian paramilitary forces have violently intervened in recent demonstrations. Since October 1, the Iraqi High Commission for Human Rights reports that 301 protesters have been killed, and thousands more injured.
As Tehran continues to dismiss these protests as inauthentic and foreign-led, demonstrators will only gain more momentum. While Iran grapples with the economic consequences of Trump’s maximum-pressure campaign, it may not be able to survive the coupled onslaught of these protests.
*The writer is a master’s candidate in counter-terrorism and homeland security at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government. She is also associate producer and analyst at the Center for Security Policy in Washington.
https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Is-Iran-losing-the-Middle-East-608152

AMCD Applauds Secretary Pompeo for Supporting Civil Unrest in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon -Need to Appoint Special Task Force
EINPresswire.com/November 18, 2019
U.S, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has issued public statements of support for the civil society in Iran seeking the separation of mosque and state, protesters in Iraq seeking freedom from Iranian interference in its internal affairs, and protesters in Lebanon seeking freedom from Iranian domination through its proxy, Hezbollah. The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy supports all these positions.
“These revolutions are organic by the people and are rejecting what the traditional political parties and their leaders have sold them over the years,“ said AMCD co-chair, Tom Harb. “All three revolutions are rebelling against corruption and their dire economic situations and they consider Iranian influence as the key cause of the corruption and economic deterioration.”
Over the past decade, the Islamic Republic of Iran has tipped the balance of effective force in the Middle East in its favor. It has achieved superior conventional force with the use of influence operations and third-party forces. The key ingredient here has been the Quds Force, the external operations wing of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). The fact that Iran now has such an extensive and geographically dispersed network of alliances gives it ample scope to conduct deniable operations.
However, it is very expensive for Iran to fund such a large group network of alliances throughout the Middle East. The sanctions imposed by the U.S. are biting and its own population and its third party alliances are suffering the effects economically. These sanctions have caused the Iranian GDP to shrink by 6% and have thus caused its alliances to dwindle dramatically. The recent unrest was brought about by regressing economic conditions, while the local populations see corrupt politicians getting paid to advance Iranian interests all over the greater Middle East.
“U.S. sanctions are working and should be expanded, with the goal of limiting Iran’s influence to its border,” said AMCD vice-chair, Hossein Khorram. “Iran should be held accountable for its lack of respect for the human rights of its citizens.”
“Iran is a signatory to Universal Declaration of Human Rights,” Khorram continued, “but it is unlikely to change course. Most likely, Iran will continue to seize opportunities to expand its third-party capability. It is up to the United States to seize this golden opportunity by strategically nurturing secular nationalist movements in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon before Iran forces their submission through terror and intimidation as it has so many times in the past.”
“Nature abhors a vacuum,” added AMCD co-chair, John Hajjar. “If these corrupt governments fail, the Islamist militias of Hezbollah, the PMU, Quds force and IRGC will fill the void. In fact, this may be the plan contemplated by the Mullahs all along.”
The American Middle Eastern community, estimated at 3.2% of the U.S. population, can be the catalyst for the United States’ support of secular civil society against Iran’s expansionist Islamic ideology. We strongly support the formation of a US Task force on the protests in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon to include the Administration, Congress and Mideastern Americans. The AMCD stands ready to participate.
Rebecca Bynum
The American Mideast Coalition for Democracy
+1 615-775-6801

Intelligence Leaks Reveal How Iran Gained Influence over Iraq
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 18 November, 2019
Hundreds of pages of Iranian intelligence documents detailing how Iran managed to gain influence over neighboring Iraq have been leaked.
Obtained by The New York Times and The Intercept, the 700 pages of Iranian intelligence cables show Tehran’s efforts to embed itself in Iraq, including the role Iranian spies played in appointing Iraqi officials.
Dating between 2014 and 2015, they revealed that Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi shared a “special relationship” with Tehran when he served as oil minister in 2014. The exact nature of that relationship is not detailed in the cable.
“No Iraqi politician can become prime minister without Iran’s blessing, and Abdul Mahdi, when he secured the premiership in 2018, was seen as a compromise candidate acceptable to both Iran and the United States,” reported The Intercept.
Former PM Nouri al-Maliki, meanwhile, spent more than two decades in exile in Syria and Iran. He was a favorite of Tehran’s and served as premier between 2006 and 2014. His replacement, the British-educated Haidar al-Abadi, was seen as more friendly to the West and less sectarian.
This did not worry the Iranians, because several ministers in Abadi’s government enjoyed close ties with Tehran. For example, Ibrahim al-Jafari — who had previously served as Iraqi prime minister and by late 2014 was the foreign minister — was, like Abdul Mahdi, identified as having a “special relationship” with Iran. In an interview, Jafari did not deny that he had close relations with Iran, but said he had always dealt with foreign countries based on the interests of Iraq. The transportation minister — Bayan Jabr, who had led the Iraqi Interior Ministry at a time when hundreds of prisoners were tortured to death with electric drills or summarily shot by death squads — was deemed to be “very close” to Iran. When it came to Iraq’s education minister, one cable said: “We will have no problem with him.” The former ministers of municipalities, communications, and human rights were all members of the Badr Organization, a political and military group established by Iran in the 1980s to oppose Saddam Hussein. The former minister of municipalities denied having a close relationship with Iran, while the former human rights minister did. The former minister of communications said that he served Iraq, not Iran, and that he maintained relationships with diplomats from many countries. In fall 2014, Jabr, then the transportation minister, welcomed Qasem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander, to his office. Soleimani had come to ask a favor: Iran needed access to Iraqi airspace to fly planeloads of weapons and other supplies to support the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad in its fight against opposition factions.
Jabr agreed.
Jabr confirmed the meeting with Soleimani, but said the flights from Iran to Syria carried humanitarian supplies and religious pilgrims traveling to Syria to visit holy sites, not weapons and military supplies to aid Assad as American officials believed. Meanwhile, the administration of Barack Obama believed that Maliki’s “draconian policies and crackdowns on Iraqi Sunnis had helped lead to the rise of the ISIS group,” reported The Intercept. “In Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, which Iran considers crucial to its national security, the Revolutionary Guards — and in particular its Quds Force, led by Soleimani — determines Iran’s policies. “Ambassadors to those countries are appointed from the senior ranks of the Guards, not the foreign ministry, which oversees the intelligence ministry, according to several advisers to current and past Iranian administrations.” According to the reports, after the American troop withdrawal in 2011, Iran moved quickly to add former CIA informants to its payroll. One undated section of an intelligence ministry cable shows that Iran began the process of recruiting a spy inside the State Department.
The State Department official is not named in the cable, but the person is described as someone who would be able to provide “intelligence insights into the US government’s plans in Iraq, whether it is for dealing with ISIS or any other covert operations.” In interviews, Iranian officials acknowledged that Iran viewed surveillance of American activity in Iraq after the United States invasion as critical to its survival and national security.
When reached by telephone by The Intercept, Hassan Danaiefar, Iran’s ambassador to Iraq from 2010 to 2017 and a former deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces, declined to directly address the existence of the cables or their release, but he did suggest that Iran had the upper hand in information gathering in Iraq.“Yes, we have a lot of information from Iraq on multiple issues, especially about what America was doing there,” he said. The cables also tackled the 2014 massacre of Sunnis in the farming community of Jurf al-Sakhar. It was a vivid example of the kinds of sectarian atrocities committed by armed groups loyal to Iran’s Quds Force. Jurf al-Sakhar, which lies just east of Fallujah in the Euphrates River Valley, is lush with orange trees and palm groves. It was overrun by the ISIS in 2014, giving militants a foothold from which they could launch attacks on the cities of Karbala and Najaf. When militias supported by Iran drove the militants out of Jurf al-Sakhar in late 2014, the first major victory over ISIS, it became a ghost town. Tens of thousands were displaced, and a local politician, the only Sunni member on the provincial council, was found with a bullet hole through his head.

Lebanese Eurobonds, inevitable default or trade of a lifetime
Dan Azzi/Annahar/November 18/2019
While the size of Lebanese debt is formidable, it is almost all internal and circular, and can (and should) be resolved over a weekend of tough, candid conversations.
Lebanese Eurobonds are trading at yields-to-maturity touching 80%, and these are the ones due in April 2020. Credit Default Swap levels have hit 5000 bps, up from the already ludicrous 1,500 level only a few weeks ago.
Clearly, market participants have priced in a default, with metaphysical certitude, on all bonds maturing after the ones supposed to pay off this month. Even Lebanese government officials have stated (then recanted) on multiple occasions that they will restructure, reschedule, postpone, and other euphemistic terms that confirm this view. According to the journalist who first broke the rescheduling statement in a local paper, the minister who announced it was reading from a document, i.e. while not inevitable, this is most certainly an option being seriously considered at the highest echelons of government. So, if the smartest people in the room, as well as the insiders, are telling you that they’ll default, should we end this article right here and move on to look at the safer Venezuelan or Argentinian Bonds for our distressed debt play?
Let’s look at the numbers. The eurobonds outstanding are $29.8 billion. We know that $16 billion are held by Lebanese banks and another $3 billion by the Central Bank of Lebanon (BDL), and an estimated $600 million by individuals. According to Bloomberg, which is not necessarily comprehensive, around $5 billion are held by foreigners. That leaves $5-6 billion with unknown ownership, but, at the very least, 67-84% are owned locally. The total Lebanese debt number that keeps being thrown around is $86 billion. Thus, at worst, 5-11% is held by foreigners.
However, if we add the debt held by the central bank, namely bank deposits lent to the central bank, which is now $110 billion (60% of which is in dollars, i.e. more than the eurobonds), that makes Lebanese government debt in the order of up to $180 billion, depending on how you calculate the recoverability value of some assets. So, basically, the eurobonds held by foreigners constitute something like 3-6% of all government debt.
Why am I making a big deal about debt by foreigners? Think of a credit card with a $10,000 limit. Suppose you charge $1,000 on it and you determine that you can’t pay and decide to default. Would you default on the $1,000 or would you run up the card to the whole ten grand, after one last boondoggle in Las Vegas the weekend before you default? While the size of Lebanese debt is formidable, it is almost all internal and circular, and can (and should) be resolved over a weekend of tough, candid conversations. So the bonds owned locally could all be paid through the usual financial engineering acrobatics. Payment goes from central bank, to Euroclear, to local bank, and right back to BDL, all solved à la Libanaise, while we do our internal “family” restructuring that nobody outside the country has to know about.
Once you consider the face value of the bonds, the case gets even more compelling. At current market values, BDL can buy the whole lot for a significant discount. If we dispatch our favorite verbally-challenged, conversationally accident-prone minister to a packed press conference, BDL can buy the whole lot for even less, while the ministry’s communications department issues their usual clarifications — “I meant restructuring … no rescheduling … no postponement. No, I meant everything will be paid on time.”The case for restructuring the whole system is self-evident — haircuts on deposits, devaluation, forced conversions, etc. So, why am I more bullish on the eurobonds? It’s quite simple, actually. If I were a decision-maker in the Government of Lebanon, why would I wreck my sovereign FICO 800-score, a record of never having defaulted on debt since the country’s independence, all for 5% of my debt?
It’s not because I’m a nice guy — it’s actually quite cynical and pragmatic. After the carnage is done, with the brutal local restructuring, I’d like to go back to the international markets at reasonable rates and use my intact credit record, to attract funds during the rebuilding phase.
Too wimpy to take a naked position? How about hedging your long position with a short on the bonds paying in two weeks? Who in their right mind would be preparing to default in April, right after paying $2 billion in November? The risk in this trade is that my analysis assumes the existence of the infamous “rational man” (ubiquitous in Economics texts), which is even more “unicornal” in the history of Lebanese Government decision-making. This is not a trade for the faint-hearted. It is the quintessential contrarian trade — this decade’s tinier version of John Paulson’s shorting subprime in 2008. It’s designed for a ballsy distressed debt hedge fund, taking a majority position (to get voting control). And the doozy on the whole thing? BDL’s gold is held in New York, all ripe for a lawsuit in case any public official wants to turn a slip of the tongue into action.

Matbakh El Balad: The initiative that feeds 1000 Lebanese protesters a day
Maysaa Ajjan/Annahar/November 18/2019
Matbakh El Balad serves food for free and it has a donation box for those who can contribute.
BEIRUT: Every night at Martyr’s Square in a small corner in Downtown, Beirut, the high-pitched sound of the clanging of pots and pans can be heard three times: at five, seven and nine in the evening. Usually, this sound signals that “food is ready” for the hundreds of protestors who visit Downtown daily “and Beirut in general,” according to chef Wael Lazkani.
Lazkani is the founder of Matbakh el Balad, an initiative that, together with the help of volunteers, feeds around 1000 hungry protestors a day. “It’s not just the protesters who are welcome to eat in our humble corner,” Lazkani said. “It’s people from all over Beirut. The economic crisis in this country has left many families struggling,” he added. The idea came to Lazkani’s mind on the third day of the revolution. “We were hearing rumors that the protestors were hungry and no one was feeding them. So my friends and I brought a huge cooking pot, a portable stove and some food to prepare. That day, we made soup for 200 people,” he said. Word quickly spread about a chef feeding people for free, and soon enough, people were sending food from their own kitchens to help.
After three to four days, Lazkani was overtaken by the quantity of food that’s being given, and by the number of people who showed up when they heard the now-customary sound of clanging pots and pans. “I realized that the economic mismanagement of this country had actually resulted in hunger. I realized the need for an initiative like Matbakh el Balad,” Lazkani told Annahar. Matbakh El Balad serves food for free and it has a donation box for those who can contribute. The kitchen has close to 30 volunteers, with 10 volunteers taking daily shifts and organizing their schedules around the initiative. “We’re here every day after 4:00 p.m., except when there are general strikes,” said Lazkani. Annahar spoke to Sahar Hafdah, a volunteer at Matbakh El Balad who joins after her shift as a restaurant manager. “I’ve been with the initiative since day one. When Wael took out his cooking pot and asked for our help, I didn’t think twice,” Hafdah said. “The idea was to feed the people sleeping here in tents, then we found out there was a need among the larger crowd and we’ve been catering to that ever since.”Lazkani and Hafdah realize that, if Matbakh El Balad were to continue operating, it needs a financial plan. “We’ve already started saving money, and we’re being careful with the cost of the food we cook,” Lazkani said. “For example, we’re focusing on grains instead of meat so that our budget holds. We hope we can sustain this initiative in the future.”

The Ravages of Inequality/The Lebanese are united in revolt, but their political system is not made to calm their rage.
Lydia Assouad/Carnegie MEC/November 18/2019
This is a modified English-language version of an article that appeared in the French daily Le Monde, which can be read here.
For the first time in recent history, the Lebanese have been united in revolt. Since October 17 they have been protesting, but not according to their religious, social, or geographical backgrounds. They are calling for an end to the corrupt political system kept in place by a political and economic elite that has for far too long denied them economic opportunities and the simple ability to make ends meet.
Their first success came on October 29, when Prime Minister Sa‘d Hariri announced the resignation of his government. The widespread grievances against the elite are justified when we take a look at the data: Lebanon has one of the highest levels of inequality in the world, alongside Chile, Brazil, and South Africa. In a study published by the World Inequality Lab, I was able to estimate the distribution of Lebanese national income between 2005 and 2014 thanks to newly available individual tax records. The results speak for themselves: The richest 1 percent of Lebanese receives 25 percent of national income. To put this into perspective, in the United States and France, where inequality is increasing and is at the heart of public debates, the richest 1 percent receives 19 percent and 11 percent of total national income, respectively.
Another striking statistic in Lebanon is that the richest 0.1 percent of the population, around 3,700 people, earns as much as the bottom 50 percent, almost 2 million people—both equivalent to one tenth of national income. The richest group, which includes members of the political class, enjoys a standard of living similar to their counterparts in high-income countries, while the poorest suffer from extreme poverty, as in low-income countries. This polarization exacerbates the disconnect between the ruling elite and “the rest.” Shi‘a from the southern city of Tyre and Sunnis from the northern city of Tripoli have finally found common ground, because the political elite extracts large rents at their expense.
This concentration of income in the hands of the few is hardly a new phenomenon. Inequality has been extreme in Lebanon since at least 2005, the first year for which we have data. Why did inequality remain absent from the public debate until now?
The lack of figures on the socioeconomic situation in the country is one reason. The last national census was held in 1932. A banking secrecy law has been in force since 1956. And the last study estimating income distribution before my own analysis dates back to 1960! This lack of transparency contributed to a widespread narrative that inequality in Lebanon was not high by historical and international standards.
Another reason might be that the political system, which is based on religious patronage, creates citizens who primarily identify with their sect not their class. The political elites have strong incentives to maintain and strengthen these identities that allow them to favor financial and economic arrangements within their sect and control their respective regions. They amplify the rents extracted from the financial and real estate sectors, on which the Lebanese economy relies. In exchange, these sectarian elites provide to their communities basic public goods such as jobs, reductions in school fees, or health services. Even if the Lebanese are probably well aware of these schemes, they did not try to overthrow the system until now because in the absence of a state they preferred to have public goods provided by wealthy politicians to not having these goods at all.
Lebanon is caught in a vicious circle. Its rentier economy, coupled with the quasi-absence of a state, has caused extreme levels of inequality and poverty, which in turn have increased the public’s reliance on services provided by sectarian leaders. These enabled the latter to continue to enjoy support from the population, remain in power, and increase their wealth. Yet this, in turn, led to higher levels of inequality and a greater reliance on the system.
It took an economic and financial crisis, years of public mismanagement (in 2019 the cabinet met 20 times to finally agree on a budget last summer!), and the government’s introduction of particularly inappropriate austerity measures to finally break the cycle. This opens a historic window to undertake structural changes. These are essential to avoid the economic disaster the country faces and to allow Lebanon to exit from the political and economic deadlock in which it has been mired since the civil war’s end.
There are alternatives to austerity to tackle Lebanon’s public debt crisis. They include negotiating a form of debt relief with the country’s creditors—mostly Lebanese banks that are highly connected to the political elite. It also includes increasing fiscal revenues by creating a progressive tax on income and wealth.
With regard to taxation, there is a large avenue for improvement in Lebanon. The Lebanese state mostly relies on taxing consumption. This is notoriously regressive, as it imposes the same amount of tax on everyone, regardless of one’s income level. The state also does a very poor job of collecting revenues, with tax revenues in Lebanon representing 15 percent of GDP, against 35 percent on average in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. The personal income tax system is archaic. It taxes each source of income separately, thereby decreasing both its progressivity as well as the total amount of tax collected. The tax rates applied to the richest are quite low by international standards—on average 21 percent in Lebanon, as opposed to 37 percent in the U.S. and 45 percent in France. A key priority is to radically reform the tax system to make it rely mostly on direct taxation, as opposed to indirect taxation (tax on consumption), and to create a general and progressive income tax on all sources of income (labor and capital incomes).
Moving from income to wealth, one option is to implement an exceptional tax on private capital, in particular on real estate. This tax would probably apply to a large base of people—although we still do not have reliable estimates of total private capital in Lebanon. Lebanese billionaires’ wealth, the tip of the iceberg, represented on average 20 percent of national income between 2005 and 2016, as opposed to 2 percent in China, 5 percent in France, and 10 percent in the U.S. This suggests that such a tax might raise a considerable amount of revenue in a short time. Wealth in Lebanon comes mostly from inefficient rents. Decreasing their sources would mean improving the welfare of the many, especially when we know that wealth inequality is a primary cause of income inequality. The amounts collected could help to weaken sectarian patronage and to undertake needed investments in infrastructure, education, and health. These structural measures could address the most important demand of protestors: An opportunity to have a future.

The post A Bundle Of English Reports, News and Editorials For November 18-19/2019 Addressing the On Going Mass Demonstrations & Sit In-ins In Iranian Occupied Lebanon in its 33th Day appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

نشرة أخبار المنسقية العامة للمؤسسات اللبنانية الكندية باللغة العربية ليوم 19 تشرين الثاني/2019

اضغط هنا لقراءة نشرة أخبار المنسقية العامة المفصلة، اللبنانية والعربية ليوم 19 تشرين الثاني/2019

ارشيف نشرات أخبار موقعنا اليومية/عربية وانكليزية منذ العام 2006/اضغط هنا لدخول صفحة الأرشيف

عناوين أقسام نشرة المنسقية باللغة العربية
الزوادة الإيمانية لليوم
تعليقات الياس بجاني وخلفياتها
الأخبار اللبنانية
المتفرقات اللبنانية
الأخبار الإقليمية والدولية
المقالات والتعليقات والتحاليل السياسية الشاملة
المؤتمرات والندوات والبيانات والمقابلات والمناسبات الخاصة والردود وغيره

The post نشرة أخبار المنسقية العامة للمؤسسات اللبنانية الكندية باللغة العربية ليوم 19 تشرين الثاني/2019 appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

كَثِيرُونَ أَوَّلُونَ يَصِيرُونَ آخِرِين، وآخِرُونَ يَصِيرُونَ أَوَّلِين
إنجيل القدّيس مرقس10/من28حتى31/:”بَدَأَ بُطْرُسُ يَقُولُ لَيَسُوع: «هَا نَحْنُ قَدْ تَرَكْنا كُلَّ شَيءٍ وتَبِعْنَاك!».قالَ يَسُوع: أَلْحَقَّ أَقُولُ لَكُم: ما مِنْ أَحَدٍ تَرَكَ، مِنْ أَجْلِي ومِنْ أَجْلِ الإِنْجِيل، بَيْتًا، أَوْ إِخْوَةً، أَوْ أَخَوَاتٍ، أَوْ أُمًّا، أَوْ أَبًا، أَوْ أَوْلادًا، أَوْ حُقُولاً، إِلاَّ وَيَأْخُذُ مِئَةَ ضِعْفٍ، الآنَ في هذَا الزَّمَان، بُيُوتًا، وَإِخْوَةً، وَأَخَوَاتٍ، وأُمَّهَاتٍ، وأَوْلادًا، وحُقُولاً، مَعَ ٱضْطِهَادَات، وفي الدَّهْرِ الآتِي حَيَاةً أَبَدِيَّة. كَثِيرُونَ أَوَّلُونَ يَصِيرُونَ آخِرِين، وآخِرُونَ يَصِيرُونَ أَوَّلِين».

But many who are first will be last, and the last will be first
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 10/28-31/:”Peter began to say to Jesus, ‘Look, we have left everything and followed you.’Jesus said, ‘Truly I tell you, there is no one who has left house or brothers or sisters or mother or father or children or fields, for my sake and for the sake of the good news, who will not receive a hundredfold now in this age houses, brothers and sisters, mothers and children, and fields, with persecutions and in the age to come eternal life.
But many who are first will be last, and the last will be first.”.

الظافر أُعْطِيهِ مِنَ ٱلمَنِّ ٱلخَفِيّ، وأُعْطِيهِ أَيْضًا حَصَاةً بَيْضَاء، وَعَلَى ٱلحَصَاةِ ٱسْمٌ جَدِيدٌ مَكْتُوبٌ لا يَعْرِفُهُ أَحَدٌ غَيْرُ ٱلَّذي يَأْخُذُهُ
رؤيا القدّيس يوحنّا02/من12حتى17/:”يا إِخوَتِي، قالَ ليَ ابْنُ الإِنسان : «أُكْتُبْ إِلى مَلاكِ ٱلكَنِيسَةِ ٱلَّتي في بِرْغَامُس: هذَا ما يَقُولُهُ مَنْ لَهُ ٱلسَّيفُ ٱلْمَاضي ذُو ٱلحَدَّين: إِنِّي عَالِمٌ أَيْنَ تَسْكُن، هُنَاكَ حَيْثُ عَرْشُ ٱلشَّيطَان. إِلاَّ أَنَّكَ مُتَمَسِّكٌ بِٱسْمِي، وما أَنْكَرْتَ إِيمَانَكَ بي، حتَّى في أَيَّامِ أَنْتِيبَاسَ شَهِيدِي وأَمِينِي، ٱلَّذي قُتِلَ عِنْدَكُم، حَيْثُ يَسْكُنُ ٱلشَّيطَان. ولكِنْ لي عَلَيكَ مَآخِذُ قَلِيلَة، وهِيَ أَنَّ عِنْدَكَ هُنَاكَ أُناسًا مُتَمَسِّكِينَ بِتَعْلِيمِ بِلْعَام، ٱلَّذي كانَ يُعَلِّمُ بَالاقَ أَنْ يُلْقِيَ حَجَرَ عَثْرَةٍ أَمامَ بَنِي إِسْرَائِيل، لِيَأْكُلُوا مِن ذَبَائِحِ ٱلأَوثَانِ وَيَزْنُوا. وهكَذا أَنْتَ أَيْضًا عِنْدَكَ أُنَاسٌ مُتَمَسِّكُونَ بِتَعْلِيمِ ٱلنِّيقُولاويِّين. فَتُبْ إِذًا، وإِلاَّ فإِنِّي آتِيكَ عَاجِلاً، وأُحَارِبُهُم بِسَيْفِ فَمِي. مَنْ لَهُ أُذُنان فَلْيَسْمَعْ ما يَقُولُهُ ٱلرُّوحُ لِلكَنَائِس: أَلظَّافِرُ أُعْطِيهِ مِنَ ٱلمَنِّ ٱلخَفِيّ، وأُعْطِيهِ أَيْضًا حَصَاةً بَيْضَاء، وَعَلَى ٱلحَصَاةِ ٱسْمٌ جَدِيدٌ مَكْتُوبٌ لا يَعْرِفُهُ أَحَدٌ غَيْرُ ٱلَّذي يَأْخُذُهُ”.

To everyone who conquers I will give some of the hidden manna, and I will give a white stone, and on the white stone is written a new name that no one knows except the one who receives it
Book of Revelation 02/12-17/:”‘To the angel of the church in Pergamum write: These are the words of him who has the sharp two-edged sword: ‘I know where you are living, where Satan’s throne is. Yet you are holding fast to my name, and you did not deny your faith in me even in the days of Antipas my witness, my faithful one, who was killed among you, where Satan lives. But I have a few things against you: you have some there who hold to the teaching of Balaam, who taught Balak to put a stumbling-block before the people of Israel, so that they would eat food sacrificed to idols and practise fornication. So you also have some who hold to the teaching of the Nicolaitans. Repent then. If not, I will come to you soon and make war against them with the sword of my mouth. Let anyone who has an ear listen to what the Spirit is saying to the churches. To everyone who conquers I will give some of the hidden manna, and I will give a white stone, and on the white stone is written a new name that no one knows except the one who receives it.”

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 خمسة مكاسب للانتفاضة اللبنانية.. ماذا عن خيار العنف
علي الأمين/العرب/19 تشرين الثاني/2019

أولا: استعادة مفهوم الوحدة الوطنية، حيث شكلت المواطنية ركيزة أساسية ومحورية في خطاب الانتفاضة وأدبياتها السياسية والمطلبية، وهي تميزت هنا عن انتفاضة 14 آذار 2005، التي استندت في منهجها السياسي على وحدة الطوائف.

ثانيا: إسقاط الحكومة، حيث نجحت الانتفاضة في فرض استقالة حكومة الرئيس سعد الحريري. ليس هذا فحسب، بل أحدثت إرباكا داخل السلطة، التي تبدو عاجزة عن تأليف حكومة بعد ثلاثة أسابيع على استقالتها. وهي تبدو عاجزة عن القيام بخطوة تعيد من خلالها إنتاج حكومة من قوى السلطة نفسها، ولا تريد الاستجابة لمطلب الانتفاضة بالإتيان بحكومة من المستقلين تحت مسمى حكومة إنقاذ وطني. في المقابل يبدو أن ما سمّي التسوية الرئاسية، التي قام عليها عهد الرئيس ميشال عون، قد تصدعت أو تهاوت، في ظل عجز أركان السلطة عن توفير معادلة جديدة تؤسس لحكومة مقبلة.

ثالثا: أقفلت الانتفاضة مجلس النواب وألغت نتائج الانتخابات النيابية التي جرت في عام 2018، إذ فرضت وجودها على معادلة السلطة، وبات البحث في تشكيل أي حكومة دون النظر إلى ما تغير في المشهد السياسي مستحيلا، وهو تغير يتراوح بين إقرار السلطة بتمثيل الانتفاضة في الحكومة، كما اقترح رئيس مجلس النواب، وبين مطلب الانتفاضة بتشكيل حكومة من خارج التمثيل النيابي القائم.

رابعا: لم تتكلم الانتفاضة عن سلاح حزب الله، ولم تشر إليه في كل مطالبها، لا رفضا ولا قبولا به، لكنها ذهبت مباشرة إلى الدولة. وطرحت مسألة تطبيق القانون، باعتبارها المعيار في محاسبة المفسدين، واستعادة الأموال المنهوبة. وفي العمق وجهت الانتفاضة ولا تزال ضربات متتالية للمعادلة التي تحكم السلطة اليوم، ولحكمتها في زمن الوصاية السورية منذ اتفاق الطائف عام 1989، والتي تقوم في جوهرها على تولي سلطة الوصاية، سواء كانت سورية أم حزب الله، إدارة السلطة في الأمن والسياسة الخارجية، مقابل إطلاق يد القوى السياسية في إدارة عملية المحاصصة أو بتعبير أوضح الفساد. الانتفاضة صدعت هذه المعادلة التي تفسر لماذا يقدم حزب الله نفسه حاميا ومدافعا عن السلطة الحاكمة، لإدراكه أن سقوط منظومة الفساد سيؤدي بالضرورة إلى إسقاط معادلة السلاح، التي جعلت من لبنان منطلقا لعمليات أمنية وعسكرية في الخارج، ومصدر سلطته في الداخل اللبناني.

خامسا: انتزعت الانتفاضة شرعية دولية، وأصبح المجتمع الدولي، ولاسيما ما يتصل بمؤتمر سيدر الذي يتضمن خطة لمساعدة لبنان، ينظر إلى الانتفاضة اللبنانية باعتبارها العنصر الحيوي الذي من خلاله يمكن تقدير خطة تنفيذ مؤتمر سيدر أو تأجيله وربما إلغائه. وأصبحت كيفية تعامل السلطة مع هذه الانتفاضة هي ما سيقرر في هذا المجال، لأن الإصلاحات هي جوهر ما يطلبه مؤتمر سيدر، والذي تعمل الانتفاضة على تحقيقه بالإضافة إلى مطالب وعناوين أخرى تتصل بالإصلاح السياسي وإجراء انتخابات نيابية مبكرة.

هذه المكاسب الخمسة، تستند على تغيير أو مسار من التحول السلمي، وعلى نزعة غير عنفية يتمسك بها المجتمع اللبناني، وهي سمة نتجت من تراكم خبرة مجتمعية، وتجارب أدت إلى إدراك عميق بأن العنف، لاسيما المسلح، كفيل بضرب المكتسبات الوطنية.

غير أن ذلك، لا يزيل المخاوف من عنف مقابل هو عنف حزب الله، الذي يمكن أن يستحضر في لحظة تلمس خسارة السلطة، عنفا بذريعة حماية السلاح أو مواجهة مخاطر خارجية أو داخلية. وهو في ذلك يريد استدراج المجتمع الدولي للتدخل، لإدراك حزب الله أن المجتمع الدولي هذا ينحاز إلى الأمن، في مقابل الاصلاح، وهو ما شاهده الجميع في سوريا. هذا ما يعتقد حزب الله حدوثه في لبنان، في ظل وجود أكثر من مليون لاجئ سوري في لبنان وتخوف أوروبا من هجرتهم إليها، فضلا عن وجود أكثر من عشرة آلاف جندي دولي في جنوب لبنان ضمن قوات اليونيفل.

إلى جانب ذلك، لا يخفي القريبون من حزب الله أن تهديد الاستقرار في لبنان، يوجه رسالة قوية لإسرائيل، التي تتمتع باستقرار على حدودها مع لبنان منذ القرار الدولي 1701 وهي ليست في وارد مبادلة ذلك بالفوضى. وهذا ما أكده رئيس الجمهورية قبل أيام، حين أشار إلى أن حزب الله ملتزم بالاستقرار على الحدود مع إسرائيل.

بين وتيرة التغيير السياسي التي تديرها الانتفاضة ومخاطر التهديد الأمني الذي يتركز في ما يمكن أن يقوم به حزب الله، تفرض الأزمة المالية والاقتصادية حضورها القوي، من خلال ما حملته وتحمله من مخاطر حقيقية على الدولة والمجتمع. وهي باتت تفرض على اللبنانيين نمطا جديدا لم يعهدوه سابقا، حيث باتت المخاطر أكثر من واقعية على توفير السلع والمواد الأساسية، مع بروز سعرين للعملة الأجنبية واحد رسمي وآخر في السوق، وهو ما سبب ونتج عن أزمة في توفير عملة الدولار في بلد يقوم اقتصاده على الاستيراد من الخارج.

كل ذلك يجعل من عملية الإنقاذ أسيرة معركة عض أصابع بين طرف يريد إعادة إنتاج معادلة السلطة نفسها، وطرف يريد الانتقال إلى معادلة جديدة لا مفر منها لإنقاذ لبنان.

وسط هذا المشهد، حققت الانتفاضة مكسبا مهما على الصعيد النقابي، عندما حققت فوزا كبيرا في نقابة المحامين، عبر إيصال نقيب جديد من وجوه الثورة هو المحامي ملحم خلف، في معركة انتخابية في مواجهته كل أحزاب السلطة دون استثناء، والتي فشلت في الإتيان بمرشحها. أهمية هذا الفوز أن نقابة المحامين ومنذ عقود، كانت دائما صورة مصغرة عن توازنات أحزاب السلطة.

ما حدث في نقابة المحامين يجعل من التغيير في بقية النقابات مسارا جديا وحقيقيا، يعكس مدى تراجع قوى السلطة وسطوتها أمام التغيير المجتمعي الذي تقوده الانتفاضة اللبنانية على أكثر من مستوى واتجاه.

The post علي الأمين: خمسة مكاسب للانتفاضة اللبنانية.. ماذا عن خيار العنف appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

3 ثورات ضد الإمبراطورية الخمينية والدور الأميركي
تأثير الحراك اللبناني والانتفاضة العراقية واضح على ما يجري في طهران

د. وليد فارس/انديبندت عربية/19 تشرين الثاني/2019

كنا قد كتبنا في وقت سابق أنه وبحال امتداد الثورتين اللبنانية والعراقية لأسابيع وأشهر، فإن شعلتهما ستوقد الثورة في إيران معيدة تفجير التظاهرات، ويبدو ان هذه التنبؤات كانت في محلها، فإيران تشهد انتفاضة شعبية قد تكون الثورة الثالثة ضد نظام الخمينيين.

فبعد الثورة الأولى عام 1999 التي قادها الطلاب في عدد كبير من الجامعات والكليات، وقُمعت في نهاية المطاف من قبل السلطات الإيرانية، وبعد الثورة الثانية التي عرفت بالثورة الخضراء في يونيو (حزيران) 2009 ولاقت مصير سابقتها، انفجرت الأسبوع الماضي الثورة الثالثة التي أصبح متعارفاً عليها بثورة الوقود.

وكان واضحاً أن الجمر لا يزال مشتعلاً تحت الرماد في طهران منذ التظاهرات التي عمت في المدن والمقاطعات نهاية عام 2018، واستمرت في عمق المجتمع الإيراني حتى جاءت الرياح من لبنان والعراق وعصفت في طول البلاد وعرضها في ثورة فاقت قوتها سابقاتها، وهي اليوم تصارع النظام في الوقت الذي تستمر الثورتان وبقّوة في المستعمرتين ببغداد وبيروت.

وجدير بالذكر، بحسب المراقبين، ان هذه الانتفاضة الحديثة بدأت لأسباب اقتصادية تتعلق بأزمة الوقود، غير أنها توسعت لتشمل عشرات المدن وتنقلت بين المدن الفارسية من طهران إلى مشهد، وفي الأحواز حيث الأكثرية العربية ووصلت إلى بلوشستان أذربيجان، وكردستان ومناطق أخرى، والمشهد الآن هو كناية عن انفجار شعبي في جميع أنحاء إيران يستهدف رموز السلطة، وبحسب المقاطع المصورة، رأينا المتظاهرين يضرمون النار بمحطات الوقود ويهاجمون ميليشيا الباسيج والشرطة، وأحرقوا مصارف وصوراً لرأس النظام.

هذه المشاهد تعني أن الثورة هذه المرة أعمق من الماضي، والأكثرية الشعبية تحذر النظام بقدرتها على القيام بحركة شمشومية، أي أنها قادرة على إسقاط البلاد على رأس النظام إن لم يكن هناك تغيير، وهذا يعني أن البؤس بلغ درجة غير مسبوقة والرفض للقمع البوليسي وصل إلى الذروة، مع انضمام عدد من كوادر الثورة الخضراء إلى المتظاهرين.

إن تأثير الحراك اللبناني والانتفاضة العراقية واضح على ما يجري في إيران، والأمر اللافت أن قطاعات الشباب تعتمد على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي من بيروت إلى طهران، وتتابع ما يقوم به الآخرون في شوارع لبنان والعراق وبالتالي، فإن الموجة التي خرجت من المستعمرتين ولدت شعوراً بالقدرة الذاتية لمقاومة النظام الخميني في المنطقة ككل، وكما تحدثنا سابقاً، فإن انتفاضة المستعمرات في الهلال الخصيب أصبحت ذات قدرة ذاتية أسهمت في تمكين القطاعات الرافضة في إيران من الثورة على إيران.

إن المراقبين يعلمون علم اليقين أن النظام في إيران غير قادر على إقامة تسوية داخلية حتى لو كان قادراً على القبول بتسويات إقليمية ودولية لإنقاذ نفسه من غضب الداخل، وبالتالي فإن التقديرات تشير إلى أن خامنئي قد يختار المواجهة الشاملة مع شعبه ويزج بقواه العسكرية والأمنية لقمع الشعب فاتحاً بذلك باباً كان موصداً لأربعة عقود.

إذاً، إيران تدخل المجهول ومعها العراق ولبنان وربما سوريا واليمن لاحقاً، والسؤال الكبير ما هو موقف الخارج حيال ما يجري في الشرق الأوسط، والأهم ما هو الموقف الأميركي؟

مما لا شك فيه أن النظام الإيراني وأذرعه، إن خشي شيئاً فهو يخشى من تحرك أميركي بقدرات كبيرة لدعم الثورات الثلاث لأنه يوفر عاملاً نفسياً مهماً للقطاعات المنتفضة، وبالفعل، إذا قررت واشنطن السير بنهج الرئيس رونالد ريغن وجورج بوش الأب في دعمهما ثورات أوروبا الشرقية بوجه حكم غورباتشوف ما أدى إلى نجاح ثورات بولندا وتشيكوسلوفاكيا وهنغاريا وألمانيا الشرقية، فذلك سيؤدي بنظر حكام طهران إلى نجاح الثورات الثلاث على الأقل في مرحلة ما.

من هنا، نفهم كيف أن الخمينيين و”حزب الله” و”الحشد الشعبي”، يتهمون الشبان المنتفضين بأنهم امتداد وأدوات للخارج، وركزوا في بعض الاتهامات على دعم أميركا للتحركات الشعبية، ونحن نعلم أن الإدارة في موقع لا يسمح لها الآن بالتركيز على الثورات وحاجاتها وتفعيل حركة داعمة لها دولياً، لأن الرئيس الأميركي يواجه أقسى أزمة فجرتها المعارضة في محاولة عزله تُخاض غمارها بمجلس النواب، وبالتالي على عكس ما تزعم طهران والضاحية، فإن إدارة الرئيس ترمب لم تتخذ قراراً حاسماً بما يجب القيام به للمساعدة، ولكن هناك مؤشرات ظهرت من خلال تصريحات وزير الخارجية مايك بومبيو حيال الثورات الثلاث شكلت فارقاً كبيراً بالمقارنة بما فعله الرئيس أوباما.

الاعتقاد هنا أن الرئيس ترمب لن يقوم بعمل تجاه هذه الثورات إلا إذا كان عملاً كبيراً وحاسماً، فأي تغريدة من الرئيس ستلحقها تغريدات أخرى وستحشد قدرات الإدارة لتعبئة الطاقات، وهناك مخاطرة تكمن بإمكان قيام المعارضة بمهاجمته إذا قرر التحرك في الشرق الأوسط، وهو في العام الانتخابي، لذلك فإن إدارة ترمب التي كانت تخطط للعودة إلى الشرق الأوسط بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية العام المقبل، قد تجد نفسها أمام تحدٍ قد يؤدي إلى تغيير موقفها السياسي، وخوض حرب على جبهتين في الداخل لمواجهة خصومها، وفي الخارج حيث تجد نفسها ملزمة بدعم المجتمعات المدنية لمواجهة الغطرسة الإيرانية في وقت فرضت أقسى العقوبات على طهران، فإذا لم تقم إدارة ترمب بأي عمل لدعم التحركات التي هي هدية من الشعوب لتتمكن واشنطن من مواصلة حملة عزل الملالي، قد تخسر فرصة مساعدة شعوب المنطقة خلال العام المقبل لتغيير أوضاعهم من أجل الوصول إلى سلام وأمان في المنطقة.

باختصار على إدارة ترمب ولجان الكونجرس المنشغلة بالسماع إلى اتصالات الرئيس وتصرفاته أن تتخذ قراراً بتوحيد الموقف الأميركي، ويمكن لترمب أن يقرر فتح مواجهة في الوقت نفسه مع خصومه في المعارضة والتمدد الإيراني، وإن سار بالخيار الأخير فهو بحاجة إلى فريق عمل قادر على الصعيد الإستراتيجي.

The post د. وليد فارس/3 ثورات ضد الإمبراطورية الخمينية والدور الأميركي… تأثير الحراك اللبناني والانتفاضة العراقية واضح على ما يجري في طهران appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.

العونو باسيليون وجماعة الصفقة الرئاسية الخطيئة هم مباشرة أو مواربة مجرد اقنعة وأكياس رمل للمحتل الإيراني

الياس بجاني/19 تشرين الثاني/2019

بعيداً عن أي شخصنة، لا وألف لا، فإنه في السياسة وفي الخيارات الإستراتجية والسياسية والتحالفات والممارسات والعقلية النرسيسية…

وفي كل ما هو وطني ودستوري وحقوقي وإيماني وتاريخ وهوية وكيانية وانسانية وتعايش وحريات، فإن العونو باسيليون من أهلنا الأحباء السائرين وراء شخصي ميشال عون وجبران باسيل، والمتناسين عن جهل وغباء وشرود عقلي عن القضية والوطن والتاريخ والهوية…

فهؤلاء جميعاً في خياراتهم صنميون ومتلحفون عباءة حزب الله المحتل للبنان، ويستقوون بسلاحه، ويسوّقون لنفاق مقاومته الإرهابية، ويتنكرون للبنان الدولة والدستور والإنسان.

هؤلاء وفي مقدمهم ،وأيضاً في السياسة وليس بالشخصي، ميشال عون وجبران باسيل، لا يمثلون الشعب اللبناني الحر والسيادي والإستقلالي ولا يشبهونه بشيء.

هم عملياً وواقعاً معاشاً على أرض الحقيقة غرباء ومغربون عن الكيانية والهوية والسيادة والحرية والإستقلال، وأكيد غرباء ومغربون عن كل ما يمثله ويرمز إليه لبنان الرسالة بكل مكوناته ومفاهيمه الحضارية والإنسانية.

العونو باسيليون في السياسة والخيارات والمنطق والخطاب والمقاربات والضياع الوطني هم مجرد أقنعة وادوات ومتاريس وأكياس رمل للمحتل الإيراني ونقطة ع السطر.

يبقى أن مشكلة لبنان، ومشكلة كل اللبنانيين، وفي مقدمهم البيئة الشيعية الكريمة، هو سرطان حزب الله الملالوي الإحتلالي مع كل متفرعاته المباشرة من مثل أمل والقومي والشيوعي والعونوباسيليون، وأيضاً متفرعاته المستترة والإنتهازية من ربع الكتبة والفريسيين الذين فرطوا 14 آذار وخانوا ثورة الأرز وداكشوا السيادة والإستقلال والقرار الحر ودماء الشهداء بالكراسي وهم أصحاب شركات احزاب ما يسمى قوات واشتراكي ومستقبل وكل من يلف لفهم ويقول قولهم.

جميع هؤلاء مباشرة أو مواربة يتحملون مسؤولية وصول لبنان إلى ما وصل إليه من تعاسة وفقر وتفلت وضياع، وبالتالي مع هؤلاء لا قيامة للبنان وعزلهم ومحاسبتهم بالقانون والعدل ضرورة ملحة، وإلا فالج لا تعالج.

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الياس بجاني/17 تشرين الثاني/2019
الحريري متآمر مع جبران وحرقا الصفدي ت يرجع الحريري كبطل مع صفقة العار الرئاسية وبمكوناتها الفاسدة كلها. مسرحية دجل وغباء واستغباء

The post الياس بجاني/العونو باسيليون وجماعة الصفقة الرئاسية الخطيئة هم مباشرة أو مواربة مجرد اقنعة وأكياس رمل للمحتل الإيراني appeared first on Elias Bejjani News.