Has Iran offered Assad asylum?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/Decemver 07/15
Some media reports said that Iran recently offered to “host” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – that is, to grant him asylum, and receive him in Tehran as a hero. This was based on a statement attributed to Ali Akbar Velayati, a foreign policy advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, during his visit a few days ago to Syria and Lebanon.It seems the “positive” atmosphere, rare amidst this destruction, is the reason behind such wishes. The positive news includes the release of the abducted Lebanese soldiers by the terrorist organization al-Nusra Front, following a deal organized by Hezbollah and Qatar. Iran’s connection to the Assad regime is very strong and deep, and about more than just common interests. There has also been positive news on an agreement to bring in Suleiman Franjieh as president of Lebanon, following a long dispute and a presidential vacuum of more than two years. All this suggests that we’ve begun to witness breakthroughs! So has the time for Assad’s exit come?
Big story, little coverage
If a high-ranking Iranian official like Velayati announces that Tehran will grant Assad asylum, it would be a very significant development that governments and media outlets would certainly not miss. However, I only read about this in Syrian opposition media outlets, which of course are not a reference regarding news about the regime and rival Iran. But following a long search, I found the complete video of Velayati’s interview with the Al-Mayadeen television channel. Towards the end of the interview, the presenter asked her Iranian guest whether Tehran will receive Assad soon, especially given that Assad “visited Moscow a month ago”. The question hinted that Iran is abstaining from receiving Assad. Velayati said: “Assad’s presence in Damascus is important. We, in Iran, will receive him when it’s a duty. We don’t impose our opinions on Mr. Assad. We do not want him to leave his country. When he decides to visit Iran, we are ready to warmly receive him, and we’d receive him like a hero. He has defended his people for five years, and we don’t want his post to be vacant.”
Mysterious message
He who listens to the last part of Velayati’s answer will think that Iran welcomes the idea of granting asylum to Assad. However the original question made it clear that Assad, who visited Russia in October, has not yet been received by Tehran as a visiting president. Velayati’s answer has nothing to do with granting Assad asylum, and is rather mysterious. Velayati did not welcome Assad’s visit directly, but said he did not want Assad to leave his country amid such circumstances. But this is not a convincing excuse, given that we’ve seen Assad depart Damascus and head to Russia. This latter journey takes four hours while the trip from Damascus to Tehran only takes two! I think Iran’s connection to the Assad regime is very strong and deep, and about more than just common interests. Tehran has been behind Assad’s extremist policy ever since the beginning of the revolution. And those who analyze the situation before the revolution think that the Iranians were managing Syria’s policy since Assad took power in 2000. This explains the Syrian regime’s violent approach in Lebanon and the series of assassinations in which it turned out Iran had an active role in. Iran also played a role, alongside the Syrian regime, in managing the so-called Iraqi resistance and al-Qaeda from inside Syria following the American invasion of Iraq. The Iranian-Syrian axis lives on until this day, and Tehran will hold on to Assad until the last hour when it loses Damascus.
Final hour?
So are we close to Assad’s final hour? It’s difficult to estimate the moment of defeat, as many regional and international troops are now involved. However what we do know is that Assad will not emerge victorious no matter how much the Iranians and the Russians succeed at supporting him and at prolonging the duration of war. As long as the Russians and Iranians agree on Syria, we cannot expect the easy solution of excluding Assad, such as granting him asylum in Iran, to materialize. If Russia and Iran end up having two different stances, the situation of the Syrian regime will be difficult with the presence of Iranian and Russian military forces fighting in Syria – in support of the Assad regime – via ground and air operations. The Russians and Iranians may currently have different points of view, however not so significantly that you can bet on it – especially after the Turks downed the Russian bomber, something that has brought Moscow and Tehran closer together. We may see disagreements between Russia and Iran during the Vienna negotiations on Syria’s future and political solutions. The Russian president has said before that Assad remaining in power is not important and that what matters is to maintain Syrian state institutions. This is very different from the Iranian proposal, which states that Assad himself represents legitimacy. This is what Velayati reiterated during his interview with Al-Mayadeen: he said that Assad will stay until the end of his presidential term, and that he must also participate in the upcoming elections, adding that Iran is confident Assad will win the elections again! Iran’s stance is to insist on Assad’s presence, even if they have to resort to a power of arms and to forging election results. If however the Russians lean towards a political solution that excludes Assad, or makes the latter like Iraq’s president – a figure who holds a mere honorary position – the dispute may erupt between the two allies.
Amid war on ISIS, don’t overlook need to oust Assad
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/Decemver 07/15
As more states escalate their fight against the barbaric ISIS militant group in Syria, there should also be a renewed, collective effort to push for the final ousting of the disgraced regime of Bashar al-Assad. The world continues to grieve over the staggering loss of lives claimed by ISIS recently, from Beirut to Sinai to Paris. But on Syrian soil, the massacres carried out by the Assad regime have continued unabated. On Dec. 4 alone, at least 56 civilians were killed, including many children, in regime airstrikes targeting rebel-held territories. Meanwhile, since beginning its aerial offensive to secure Assad’s rule, Russia has added to the carnage, killing at least several hundred civilians and bombarding a number of hospitals. As the West strategizes how to prevent ISIS attacks, the long-term consequences of Assad’s rule can also not be ignored.
As the death toll in Syria continues to skyrocket and as the security implications of a Russia-Iran alliance on Israel’s doorstep become further evident, the time to step up efforts to end the Assad regime’s rule, while continuing to defeat ISIS, is now.
A shared effort
Destroying ISIS – a group which has now been found guilty of carrying out genocide against the Yazidi people – is an effort increasingly shared by the international community. The United Kingdom is the latest nation to stage direct military intervention in Syria against ISIS, with RAF Tornado jets carrying out a number of airstrikes just hours after MPs voted in favour of deeper involvement. The development is positive; the U.S.-led coalition should continue leading the fight but the time has come for European nations to conduct aerial operations alongside the United States. All involved parties should also publicly call on Arab states to recommit themselves to the anti-ISIS coalition. At the moment, the current level of military cooperation between the U.S., France and the UK represents an opportunity for cooperation on the status of the Assad regime as well. All three countries should be preparing to help facilitate the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule while supporting the opposition militarily and diplomatically.
France’s role
In the wake of the bloodiest attacks on French soil since World War II, President Francois Hollande publicly confirmed his country would resettle 30,000 Syrian refugees over the course of the next two years. Meanwhile, the French military escalated its aerial offensive against ISIS in Syria, conducting a series of intense raids against the militant group. The entire response has been admirable and intelligent. As France broadens its own involvement in Syria, it should lead on the fight against the Assad regime, too. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has remained a consistent voice of reason on the future of the Assad regime and just over a year ago wrote an especially powerful op-ed about the need to fight ISIS but not ignore Assad’s own barbarity. Fabius wrote, “Assad and Daesh are two sides of the same barbaric coin. Assad largely created this monster by deliberately setting free the jihadists who fueled this terrorist movement. This was part of his underhanded effort to appear, in the eyes of the world, as the sole bulwark against terrorism in Syria.” His point here is as true now as it was then; efforts to defeat ISIS will ultimately be stymied by Assad’s continued rule in Syria.
In the recent term, ISIS has increasingly demonstrated both its capability and intent to carry out deadly mass-casualty terrorist attacks in the West, underscoring their degraded status in their own strongholds. Yet, as the West strategizes how to prevent ISIS attacks in our own countries, by a group that has revolutionized the concept of lone-wolf terrorism, the long-term consequences of Assad’s rule can also not be ignored.