Analysis/Recent Attacks on Iranian Targets Are Good for the Israeli Soul – and Not Much Else زيفي بارئيل/هآرتس: الهجمات الأخيرة على الأهداف الإيرانية هي جيدة للروحية الإسرائيلية وليس أكثر Zvi Bar’el/Haaretz/September 03/2019
Analysis/Lebanon Crisis Provides Brief Respite From Netanyahu’s Increasingly Deranged Election Campaign. كيمي شاليف/هآرتس: أزمة لبنان توفر فترة استراحة قصيرة من حملة نتنياهو الانتخابية المتزايدة بالإضطراب Chemi Shalev/Haaretz/September 03/2019
The prime minister’s delusional tirade against concocted enemies is scary if contrived – and terrifying if genuine.
The meticulously stage-managed Hezbollah retaliation against Israel on Sunday brought both good news and bad news. The good news is that a potentially destructive military escalation on Israel’s northern border was averted. The bad news is that the all-clear signal in the north – which may only be temporary – frees Netanyahu to return to his increasingly and dangerously demented election campaign.
Not that electioneering was totally absent from the Lebanon flare-up, at least in its closing lines. An elaborate and somewhat bizarre Israeli ruse meant to feign casualties so that Nasrallah could declare “mission accomplished!” was undermined by overeager cabinet minister Yoav Galant who blurted out the truth.
Benjamin Netanyahu then upped the ante by gloating over Hezbollah’s failure to leave “even a scratch” on any Israeli soldier, seemingly goading Nasrallah not to make do with Sunday’s attack. Netanyahu was roundly criticized for once again straying from Israel’s previous policy of “ambiguity” concerning its military operations, including the attacks on Iranian militias in Iraq and on a Hezbollah plant in Beirut, for purely political reasons.
Nonetheless, Netanyahu and the army chiefs deserve credit for containing a fierce and potentially devastating confrontation with Hezbollah, sustaining manageable damage in return for Israel’s recent drone attack on the Beirut plant developing precision-guidance for Hezbollah’s formidable missile arsenal. Netanyahu’s deft handling of the situation, however, stood in sharp contrast to his increasingly unhinged election campaign.
To crib from Robert Louis Stevenson, it seems that while Dr. Benjamin Jekyll continues to manage Israel’s affairs of state, Mr. Bibi Hyde has taken over the Likud’s election campaign.
Dr. Jekyll is the responsible statesman who has generally garnered positive reviews for his careful management of Israel’s ongoing war against Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and even Iraq. Mr. Hyde, on the other hand, is the divisive demagogue whose incitement against the media and legal system is escalating while his grip on reality seems to loosen.
Dr. Jekyll is the responsible statesman who has generally garnered positive reviews for his careful management of Israel’s ongoing war against Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria and even Iraq. Mr. Hyde, on the other hand, is the divisive demagogue whose incitement against the media and legal system is escalating while his grip on reality seems to loosen.
In a transparent effort to harm Channel 12, Netanyahu picked on the new HBO series “Our Boys”, which recounts the brutal murder of Palestinian teen Mohammed Abu-Khdeir by Jewish zealots seeking revenge for the kidnapping of three Israeli soldiers in July 2014. The Israeli-American miniseries – hitherto lauded for its sensitive depiction of the apprehension of the perpetrators by the Shin Bet and widely seen as another feather in the cap of Israel’s internationally successful television industry – was described by Netanyahu as “anti-Semitic,” no less. The prime minister called on his minions to boycott Channel 12 in return.
But Netanyahu went full blast bonkers when he seemed to be contemplating a nightly Facebook appearance, which he dubbed “The Truth Newscast” without so much as a wink to George Orwell. His “truth”, Netanyahu said, would compete with what he described as Channel 12’s “Gantz-TV”, despite the fact that the station’s interviews with the Kahol Lavan leader and obsessive reporting about discord in its ranks have inflicted more damage on his challenger than all other news outlets combined.
But you have to see and hear the entire post to grasp the full measure of Netanyahu’s dangerous dementia. His appearance is riveting and appalling at the same time, rendering a Trumpian harangue, albeit one delivered by a far more cunning and accomplished performer. Netanyahu fully lives up to his reputation as a charismatic TV personality second to none but exceeds his own high standards as a truth-bending, fear-mongering, hate-spreading rabble-rouser who can brainwash his followers to his heart’s content.
Notwithstanding the mountains of damning evidence publicized by Attorney General Avihai Mendelblit in his March declaration of intent to indict him on charges of corruption, Netanyahu has consistently and vociferously denied any wrongdoing. Consistent with his denial, he has depicted press leaks of hitherto unpublicized testimonies of witnesses against him as “fake news,” “a witch hunt” and now “a terror attack against democracy.” But his onslaughts have never been as focused, ominous, potentially lethal or detached from reality as his latest volley.
The more comforting assessment of the prime minister’s blitzkrieg against the media and its supposed lackeys in the legal system – along with the little that remains of Israel’s checks and balances – is that this is vintage Netanyahu, albeit on steroids. After all, Netanyahu’s election campaigns are renowned for their fabrications and incitement – from Yitzhak Rabin selling Israeli security to Yasser Arafat to the cynically concocted 2015 cry of “Arabs flocking to polls.” His 2019 bogeyman is the media, which Netanyahu’s fans, primed by their leader, have come to denigrate and despise.
By this account, Netanyahu’s most recent dive into the cesspool in which he thrives is a calculated campaign ploy aimed at diverting attention from his alleged corruption while firing up his base against a purported wide-ranging “plot” to depose him. If his propaganda seems more desperate than ever it is only because Netanyahu is literally fighting for his own personal freedom and is increasingly apprehensive about losing the battle. Netanyahu is convinced that his one-time protégé and former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman is gunning for his head and is thus getting increasingly frenzied due to Lieberman’s growing strength in the polls.
The far scarier scenario has Netanyahu succumbing to his well-documented paranoia and persecution complex, amplified ten times over by his wife Sara and son Yair, pushing him to embrace the delusional figments of his own imagination. He described Channel 12, for example, as a stifling monopoly, despite the existence of two mainstream competitors – both of which Netanyahu tried to dismantle – as well as a burgeoning stable of television, radio and print outlets that are unabashedly pro-Netanyahu.
Netanyahu’s performance on Saturday night may have been so completely compelling, therefore, not because it featured Israel’s consummate political actor but because his appearance was no act at all. Netanyahu may actually see himself now as a latter-day Alfred Dreyfus, a Jewish martyr about to be felled by a sinister cabal comprised of leftist defeatists and cosmopolitan anti-Semites. His distraught reactions to press reports about his alleged corruption are getting loonier because Netanyahu himself is going berserk at the hands of the demons he invented all by himself.
The short-term danger is that Netanyahu’s dementia, feigned or genuine, will inflame the election campaign, inspire fear and loathing and possibly provoke violence against those “plotting” against him. The long-term and far more sinister danger is that if and when he wins the September 17 election, Netanyahu won’t discard his persecuted victim mentality, as many expect, but take it with him, fully-loaded, to his fifth straight term in office.
Netanyahu will then unleash all his pent-up fury and lust for revenge on freedom of speech, civil liberties and rule of law until he has felled what increasingly seems like his greatest adversary – Israeli democracy itself.
Analysis/Recent Attacks on Iranian Targets Are Good for the Israeli Soul – and Not Much Else زيفي بارئيل/هآرتس: الهجمات الأخيرة على الأهداف الإيرانية هي جيدة للروحية الإسرائيلية وليس أكثر Zvi Bar’el/Haaretz/September 03/2019
Though Israel’s Military Intelligence has outstanding ability to gather information ahead of an operation, it can’t say what diplomatic and strategic outcomes would follow.
The satellite that Iran planned to launch into space on Thursday ended its life with a big explosion. This isn’t the first time Iran has failed to send a satellite beyond Earth’s atmosphere. On the two previous occasions, in January and February, the tests ended similarly. One was reported by Iran, the second was concealed from the media.
But the interesting point in this whole affair is related to the president of the United States, who hastened to deny that his country was involved in the explosion. Did anyone ask him? Blame him? Until Donald Trump’s tweet, Iran apparently did not intend to report the failure, and its leadership did not point an accusing finger in any direction. Trump didn’t make do with a denial – he posted the picture of the exploded space center, apparently from an intelligence briefing he’d received that morning.
In doing so did the president want to hint that the United States not only knows about the failed test, but also plans to prevent the continuation of the tests because it suspects they are designed to improve Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles? Did Trump violate the intelligence confidentiality imposed on the briefings he receives? And is this perhaps a new tactic, shared by the United States and Israel, in which publications about foiling Iranian plans and striking at Iranian targets are part of the system of deterrence against Iran?
Israel preceded Washington by publicizing not only the details of the operation in which it attacked an Iranian squad that intended to launch explosives-laden drones into its territory – it also added many details about the location of the launching site, the direct involvement of Qassam Soleimani, who plans Iran’s operations outside the country, and about the nature and capabilities of the drones.
The amazement at the precise intelligence possessed by Israel and the United States regarding Iran’s plans is justified. It’s clear that they are capable of penetrating deep into Iranian military units and acquiring information. Ostensibly, this turns Military Intelligence into the most significant agency in making the decisions likely to influence diplomatic and strategic developments in the region. But that’s an erroneous conclusion.
Foiling the launch of an Iranian satellite, destroying a special explosives-mixing machine in Lebanon, the mysterious bombing of a missile base in Iraq, or the destruction of a building designed for launching drones against Israel are similar on the tactical level – despite the major logistical differences – to striking at targets in the Gaza Strip. You can assassinate a Hamas commander, destroy civilian infrastructure or hit missile launchers, but those acts won’t solve the root problems that create these military operations.
That’s because while MI has outstanding ability to gather information in advance of an operation, it cannot present the map of diplomatic and strategic outcomes that could follow.
The result is that Israel doesn’t know how Hezbollah will react to the destruction of the mixing machine in Lebanon and cannot anticipate how Hamas will react to attacks in the Strip – and above all, neither Israel nor the United States has the ability to assess the extent to which striking at select Iranian targets will change Iran’s policy in Syria or Iraq or on negotiations with the United States.
The world knows about Iran’s decisions only after they are made. Despite the tactical successes, the West lacks tools to assess the decision-making processes and the influence mechanisms in the country.
For example, Qassem Soleimani is considered the planning and operational head of Iranian activity outside the country, and therefore the person who also heads the Iranian influence networks in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. But this convenient definition, which presents Soleimani as a supreme target, ignores the large group of influential people, headed by the Iranian President Hassan Rohani, the speaker of Parliament, the clerics close to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, close advisers, his son, the new commander of the army et al. Each of them has a certain status regarding the decisions about Iran’s response to strikes attributed to Israel.
Khamenei himself has so far refrained from declaring publicly how Israel should be treated. He is the final decision maker, but his decisions are not arbitrary. There is no question that Iran understands messages, but it doesn’t see them as a diktat, and it translates them based on its internal needs, including political needs, and not necessarily based on the intention of their dispatchers. That means the assumption that precise attacks against Iranian sites or key people are likely to act as a message that will influence its policy does not have much to support it.
The tactical military dialogue that Israel is conducting with Iran, in the hope it will delay dramatic steps – such as Trump’s intention to conduct direct negotiations with Iran, or the French mediation toward a meeting between the two leaders – cannot guarantee such an outcome. On the other hand, it looks as though the harsh sanctions imposed by the United States against Iran did not lead to its surrender, but rather to a guarded willingness to conduct negotiations with the great power that is wooing it.
If conditions ripen for such negotiations, the Israeli attacks will not carry any weight in shaping their content, but they are apparently good for the Israeli soul, especially in an election period.
Imagine Lebanon without Hezbollah عبد الرحمن الراشد: تصور كيف سيكون لبنان من دون حزب الله Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Arab News/September 03/ 2019
I think there is a group of people who still believe the lies Hezbollah and its leader spout to justify using Lebanon in this week’s attack against Israel. At the same time, I doubt there are any people, even from within this group, who agree with Hezbollah’s actions and the damage the group causes Lebanon while using excuses that no longer convince anyone.
Hezbollah has given years of ethnic, patriotic and religious excuses, from the liberation of the south to the protection of religious places and the Syrian Shebaa Farms. Because of Hezbollah, Lebanon is beleaguered internationally in its financial transactions and trade and tourism, while nationally it is held captive and controlled, from the airport to the house of government.
The price of the damage every Lebanese has paid and is still paying is easily calculated. The salary of a qualified engineer in Lebanon is way less than $24,000 per year, which is about a quarter of an engineer’s salary elsewhere, and the same goes for doctors, farmers and cab drivers.
Beirut’s small airport accommodates fewer than 9 million travelers per year, while in Dubai, where the population does not exceed even half of Lebanon’s, the airport accommodates more than 70 million travelers per year. While the UK’s Port of Dover deals with up to 13 million passengers per year, Beirut’s port is visited by only 9,000 passengers each year.
Moreover, Lebanese citizens lack basic services, including health care, electricity and municipal services, such as roads and sanitation, among many others. The main cause is the presence of the armed party of Hezbollah, though the blame usually falls on politicians, who do not dare blame Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is the only cause of the state’s low income and political bullying, presenting the armed militias under the pretext of resistance.
When late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri rebuilt Beirut International Airport, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime waged a relentless campaign against him, accusing him of corruption because he built an airport that exceeded the country’s needs; the final construction plan was set to accommodate up to 35 million travelers per year. The bullying ended with Hariri’s assassination, only four months after the opening of the airport.
The operation of impoverishing the country is ongoing, and the aim is to prevent any other party from taking independent decisions regarding the state under its control and becoming stronger than Hezbollah and its men.
Millions of tourists from all around the world do not visit Lebanon, which is supposed to be the top destination in the region, as most governments have added Lebanon to their warning lists.
It is not hard to understand the damage caused to Lebanon’s 6 million people by Hezbollah’s presence as an armed militia. However, it is harder to understand those who are still supporting Hezbollah today, echoing its resistance claims against Israel and justifying its arms and daily defiance of the state and its authorities. All other front-line states have signed peace agreements with Israel: Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and even Syria, with the Agreement on Disengagement, which is why it used Hezbollah to carry out its heroic acts on behalf of Lebanon.
Millions of tourists from all around the world do not visit Lebanon, which is supposed to be the top destination in the region, as most governments have added Lebanon to their warning lists. And the only reason is Hezbollah.
The poverty of Lebanese citizens, the immigration of millions of others, and the influx of Syrian refugees are all caused by Hezbollah. The weakness of the state and its poor services are also caused by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is the cause of the Lebanese lira’s depreciation, the low wages and the high unemployment rate. There was a time when each qualified person could have found a job with double the wages received by their counterparts in the region.
Israel is not the problem, Hezbollah is. If Lebanon’s politicians do not address this problem, the country will not come out from the hole dug for it by Iran and its proxy.
Hezbollah’s followers and fans can still preserve it, while preserving Lebanon at the same time, by forcing it to disarm and become a civil political party. Otherwise, more painful decisions are on the way.
Finally, I would only like to say: Imagine Beirut, and all of Lebanon, without Hezbollah.
*Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a veteran columnist. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel, and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat. Twitter: @aalrashed
Zarif’s Inexcusable Warm Welcome in Europe مينا باي/معهد جيتستون/حميمية الاستقبال الأوربي لظريف هي غير مبررة Mina Bai/Gatestone Institute/September 3, 2019
The behavior of European leaders towards Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during his visit illustrates how frightened they are of the Iranian regime and how these non-stop moralists will seemingly do anything for money. Iran’s strong anti-Israel rhetoric apparently does not bother them, either.
Trade with Iran is crucial to many European countries. That is one possible explanation for the seeming doublespeak in which European leaders have been engaging since the establishment of the Islamic Republic 40 years ago — boasting among themselves and with the United States about setting a shining example of human rights, yet giving their Iranian counterparts a pass on this issue.
Those of us who sought refuge away from the brutality of the Iranian regime observe with sadness and horror these desperate attempts by many European leaders to please Tehran. Europeans should be viewing the situation with equal sadness and horror.
The behavior of European leaders towards Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during his visit illustrates how frightened they are of the Iranian regime and how these non-stop moralists will seemingly do anything for money. Pictured: The EU’s chief diplomat, Federica Mogherini (left), poses with Zarif during her August 2017 visit to Iran. (Image source: European External Action Service/Flickr)
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made a surprise appearance at the Group of Seven (G7) Summit in Biarritz, France, which ended on August 26. Prior to his attendance at the gathering in France, he stopped in Sweden and Norway. Denmark was not part of his itinerary, of course, due to Copenhagen’s rocky relations with Tehran, over last year’s assassination attempt against an Iranian Sunni separatist on Danish soil.
The purpose of Zarif’s trip to Europe, apparently, was to discuss ways to ease tensions in the Persian Gulf and rescue the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — the nuclear deal with Iran from which US President Donald Trump withdrew in May 2018.
Zarif’s European tour spurred many human rights activists and Iranian opposition groups abroad to protest. Zarif, after all, represents a regime that is widely regarded as one of the world’s leading violators of human rights. Those in Iran who raise a voice against Tehran’s policies in any realm are often incarcerated: Among them are labor activists, lawyers and women’s rights activists, children’s rights activists, journalists, members of ethnic and religious minorities, environmental activists and even wildlife activists.
Days before Zarif’s trip, in fact, UN human rights experts called on the regime in Tehran to release three women recently sentenced to decades in prison for violating the law that women must wear the hijab.
The demonstrations in Europe were aimed both at Zarif and at European authorities for hosting him. In Stockholm on August 21, peaceful protesters outside the Swedish Parliament were so harassed and beaten by police that Reza Pahlavi — the Maryland-based heir to the throne of the former Iranian monarchy (his father’s ouster coincided with the 1979 Islamic revolution that ushered in the reign of the ayatollahs) — released the following statement:
“I strongly condemn the Swedish Police’s severe and ugly treatment of our countrymen who objected to the presence of the Islamic Republic’s agents in Sweden. It is regretful that the Swedish government, which claims to be feminist and progressive, not only hosts the agents of a misogynistic and oppressive regime, but it even violently assaults Iranians who were displaced and exiled by that oppressive regime…
“Iranian people will take back their country, and after their freedom, they will not forget these shameful actions…
“My fellow countrymen, I heard your cry for freedom, and I am proud of your courage. Iranians across the world should learn from your example and through unity and solidarity, not allow the representatives of the regime to travel freely and in peace and lie shamelessly and cover up the Islamic Republic’s crimes.”
After meeting with Swedish authorities, Zarif attended a seminar at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), whose governing board is chaired by a former Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ambassador Jan Eliasson.
The seminar opened with a speech, followed by questions from the audience. Not only did Eliasson, who introduced Zarif at the podium, warmly embrace the Iranian foreign minister, he also behaved rudely to a Kurdish journalist who confronted Zarif by recounting the story of his imprisonment and torture in Iran — for the “crime” of being a reporter. To make matters worse, Zarif laughed at the journalist’s comments, before answering them with ostentatious lies: that the regime could not be so bad if 73% of the Iranian people voted for it; as if elections in Iran were democratic. They are not.
Zarif then headed for Norway, where demonstrators — the present author included — were waiting in Oslo in front of the Prime Minister’s Office to protest the arrival of the Iranian foreign minister. The event, however, did not go as planned: police forced our group to stand behind barricades a block away, so that Zarif would not see us.
More significantly, the media reported that Anniken Huifedlt — a Labor Party member and chair of the parliament’s Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense — gave Zarif a heartfelt greeting, hands clasped to her chest. Ironically, Huifedlt is one of Norway’s most prominent feminists, who later would not comment to the press on Zarif’s refusal to shake her hand. Perhaps she was unaware that the Iranian regime forbids handshakes between men and women.
In France, the last destination of Zarif’s trip, the 1st arrondissement of Paris installed a large banner on City Hall stating that Iran’s mullahs — and Zarif himself — violate French principles. This unambiguous message did not prevent French President Emmanuel Macron from having a “productive” meeting with Zarif. It also did not inspire France 24, which conducted an exclusive interview with Zarif, to grill the Iranian foreign minister on the unspeakable human rights situation in the Islamic Republic.
The behavior of European leaders towards Zarif during his visit illustrates how frightened they are of the Iranian regime and how these non-stop moralists will seemingly do anything for money. Iran’s strong anti-Israel rhetoric apparently does not bother them, either.
The fear part is probably security-related as well as economic. One sees the impasse over the Strait of Hormuz, vital to 21% of the world’s petroleum consumption. Trade with Iran is crucial to many European countries. That is one possible explanation for the seeming doublespeak in which European leaders have been engaging since the establishment of the Islamic Republic 40 years ago — boasting among themselves and with the United States about setting a shining example of human rights, yet giving their Iranian counterparts a pass on this issue.
Another, more worrisome, explanation for the EU’s appeasement of Tehran is that occasionally the ideology of some European public figures overlaps with that of the Iranian regime. The hostility to Israel by British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, for instance, is so great that he is widely called an anti-Semite. Corbyn has apparently received money from Iran’s state-run Press TV for interviews. This is the same media outlet that belongs to a regime which says that Israel must be wiped off the map and which holds international Holocaust cartoon contests in Tehran. Another example is Bernd Erbel, the former German diplomat and head of Instex, a “special-purpose vehicle” formed by Germany, France and the UK in January 2019, to facilitate the evasion of US sanctions on Iran. Erbel recently had to resign due an interview he gave to Ken Jebsen, a radio host who has been described as a “conspiracy theorist” and an “anti-Semite.”
Those of us who sought refuge away from the brutality of the Iranian regime observe with sadness and horror these desperate attempts by many European leaders to please Tehran. Europeans should be viewing the situation with equal sadness and horror.
المانيا تعلن استعدادها للعمل لحفظ الاستقرار بين لبنان وإسرائيل بيروت: «الشرق الأوسط»/03 أيلول/2019
تل أبيب تبعث بتهديد للبنان عبر وزير الخارجية الألماني وتقديرات إسرائيلية بأن «حزب الله» سيوجه ضربة… والجنود الجرحى «خدعة حربية» تل أبيب: نظير مجلي لندن: «الشرق الأوسط/03 أيلول/2019
بعث وزير الخارجية الإسرائيلي يسرائيل كاتس، بتحذير إلى لبنان عقب التصعيد الأخير في النزاع مع «حزب الله» اللبناني.
وحسب بيانات الخارجية الإسرائيلية، طلب كاتس من وزير الخارجية الألماني هايكو ماس، نقل التهديد التالي إلى الحكومة اللبنانية: «إذا لم توقفوا أنشطة (حزب الله) ضد إسرائيل فسيتكبد لبنان بأكمله خسائر، وسيُصاب بقسوة».
وقال كاتس في بيان صدر، أمس (الاثنين)، ونقلته وكالة الأنباء الألمانية، إن إسرائيل ليس لديها نية لاستمرار تصعيد الوضع، وأضاف: «لكن إسرائيل مستعدة للرد بكل قوة على أي هجوم، وتعد الدولة اللبنانية هي المسؤول الوحيد في ذلك».
وحسب البيان، طالب كاتس نظيره الألماني بأن تفرض ألمانيا عقوبات على «حزب الله»، وأن تصنّف الحزب على أنه منظمة إرهابية. ولم تعلق وزارة الخارجية الألمانية على البيان حتى الآن.
وتسود تقديرات إسرائيلية، عسكرية وسياسية، بأن «حزب الله» سيوجه ضربة جديدة نحو إسرائيل، للرد على عملية إرسال الطائرتين المسيرتين الانتحاريتين إلى الضاحية الجنوبية في بيروت، قبل أسبوع. وقالت مصادر في المخابرات العسكرية (أمان) إن كشف خديعة إظهار جنود إسرائيليين جرحى قد تمس بهيبة الحزب. وبالمقابل، هدد وزير كبير في الحكومة الإسرائيلية بـ«إعادة لبنان إلى العصر الحجري، في حال تم الهجوم علينا». وأوضح رئيس أركان الجيش، أفيف كوخافي، أن جيشه لن يسمح لـ«حزب الله» بتحديث الصواريخ الموجودة في حوزته.
وكانت إسرائيل قد خفضت حالة التأهب منذ فجر أمس (الاثنين)، وأعلنت عن انتهاء جولة التوتر مع «حزب الله»، بعدما تلقت رسائل عبر فرنسا وروسيا والولايات المتحدة، مفادها أن الحزب ليس معنياً بحرب، وأعاد فتح المناطق المحاذية للحدود. واستأنف، صباح أمس، أعمال الحفريات ورفع السواتر الترابية قرب الطريق العسكرية المحاذية للسياج التقني مقابل مرج عيون اللبنانية. لكن الجيش أبقى على «حالة تيقظ شديد»، لتقديره أن «هناك احتمالاً قوياً لأن يحاول الحزب توجيه ضربة أخرى»، وذلك لأن نتيجة الصدام الأخير لم تكن مرضية له.
وقالت مصادر عسكرية رفيعة إن «حزب الله» أطلق 3 – 4 قذائف من نوع «كورنيت»، فأصابت إحداها سيارة عسكرية مصفحة. وقد أعتقد أن القصف تسبب في إصابة 4 جنود إسرائيليين، تم الإعلان عن نقلهم إلى مستشفى رمبام للعلاج، ولكن تبين أن قصة الجرحى كانت مجرد خديعة، حيث إن الجنود لم يصابوا، وتم وضع عصب ملطخة بالدماء فقط أمام الكاميرات كخديعة حربية، بل إن اللون الأحمر الذي أظهرها جروحاً كان عبارة عن دهان أحمر.
وأضافت المصادر: «إذا نجح (حزب الله) في إقناع جمهوره بأنه حقق الانتصار، فإنه لن يوجه ضربة أخرى. لكن في حال كانت الغلبة للرواية الإسرائيلية، وظهر أنه خدع، وشعر بأن الأمر يمس كرامته، سنجده يفتش عن ضربة أخرى لاسترداد كرامته، وسيجدنا جاهزين لأي سيناريو»، علماً بأن «حزب الله» ترك الباب أصلاً مفتوحاً، عندما لمح إلى أن القصف على السيارة العسكرية كان انتقاماً من الضربة الإسرائيلية على قاعدة في سوريا، وليس على عملية الضاحية.
وقد استغل الوضع وزير عضو في الكابنيت (المجلس الوزاري المصغر للشؤون الأمنية والسياسية في الحكومة الإسرائيلية)، يوآف غالانت، ليهدد لبنان من جديد بتحويله إلى العصر الحجري، وذلك في مقابلة مع الموقع الإخباري لصحيفة «يديعوت أحرونوت»، أمس.
وكانت الصحيفة نفسها (يديعوت أحرونوت) قد علقت على خدعة الجيش في قضية الجنود الجرحى، فقالت إن «عدم وجود إصابات حقيقية بين صفوف الجنود الإسرائيليين لا يشكل مصدر خيبة أمل للأمين العام لـ(حزب الله)، حسن نصر الله، الذي يدرك أنه لو تسبب بسقوط قتلى إسرائيليين، فإننا سنرد بقوة».
وأضافت الصحيفة: «يجب الإشادة أيضاً بنصر الله لأنه تجاوز الحادث الذي تحطمت فيه الطائرتان من دون طيار في بيروت، واكتفى بقصف محدود يوم الأحد. والحقيقة أنه رغم عدم وقوع إصابات في الجانب الإسرائيلي، فإنه وجه ضربة دقيقة نحو السيارة العسكرية المصفحة، ولا شك أن حسن نصر الله راض عما حققه اليوم، تماماً على غرار رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بنيامين نتنياهو».
يذكر أن الخدعة التي قام بها الجيش قوبلت بمعارضة واسعة في الحلبة السياسية الإسرائيلية، خصوصاً أن رئيس الوزراء بنيامين نتنياهو هو الذي كشفها، عندما قال إنه لا توجد جراح، ولا حتى خدوش، فاتهمه عضو الكنيست المعارض يائير لبيد بـ«استغلال الأمن لمصالحه السياسية»، وقال: «سياسة التعتيم الإسرائيلية انتُهكت مرة أخرى. لم أر شيئاً من هذا القبيل، يكشفون مناورة لكسب المزيد من الأصوات في الانتخابات». ورأى عميرام ليفين، عضو الكنيست المعارض من حزب العمل، وهو لواء (احتياط) في الجيش الإسرائيلي، أن «الجيش كان دائما ينفذ عمليات، ولكن الفرق هذه المرة أنهم يتحدثون عن تلك العمليات». كما استنكر عضو الكنيست المعارض عومير بار ليف «الهجوم على لبنان قبيل الانتخابات»، مُعرباً عن أمله في «ألا يتضح فيما بعد أنه تم استخدام الجيش الإسرائيلي للحصول على مكاسب سياسية». وحذّر بار ليف من أن «يدفع الإعلان الإسرائيلي، أن قصف (حزب الله) لم يسفر عن وقوع أي إصابات، المنظمة إلى تنفيذ عمليات أخرى ضد إسرائيل».
وأعلن في وقت مسبق من صباح أمس عن لقاء تم التخطيط له مسبقاً بين رئيس الأركان الإسرائيلي الجنرال أفيف كوخافي، والقائد الجديد لقوات اليونيفيل الدولية الجنرال ستيفانو ديل كول، يجري للمرة الأولى منذ تسلمه مهام منصبه. ووصف الناطق بلسان الجيش الإسرائيلي اللقاء بأنه «بهدف التعارف المتبادل والمهني بين القادة، خصوصاً فيما يتعلق بمهمة القوات الدولية في جنوب لبنان، وتجديد ولايتها، بالإضافة إلى التوتر السائد بين لبنان وإسرائيل».
ونقل على لسان كوخافي قوله خلال اللقاء: «الجيش الإسرائيلي يبقى في حالة جاهزية لسيناريوهات متنوعة. لن نقبل أي مساس بمواطنينا وبجنودنا، ولن نقبل مشروع الصواريخ الدقيقة التابع لـ(حزب الله) على الأراضي اللبنانية. يجب على لبنان واليونيفيل العمل لوقف مشروع الصواريخ الدقيقة التابع لإيران و(حزب الله) في لبنان، وتطبيق قرار مجلس الأمن الدولي رقم 1701 بشكل دقيق. الوضع القائم اليوم لا يمكن التسامح معه».
المانيا تعلن استعدادها للعمل لحفظ الاستقرار بين لبنان وإسرائيل بيروت: «الشرق الأوسط»/03 أيلول/2019
تلقى وزير الخارجية والمغتربين جبران باسيل، اتصالا من وزير خارجية ألمانيا هايكو ماس، أعرب فيه عن «رغبة بلاده وسعيها للحفاظ على الاستقرار في لبنان، ومنع حصول أي تصعيد، واستعدادها للعمل مع جميع الأطراف لضمان تحقيق ذلك». وأبلغ الوزير باسيل نظيره الألماني أنه «يقدر جهوده وأن لبنان هو الذي يريد الاستقرار لأن مصلحته وأوضاعه الاقتصادية والاجتماعية لا تتحمل أي خضة، لكن إسرائيل هي التي تعتدي على لبنان، وهي انتقلت من ارتكاب مائة وخمسين خرقا جويا وبحريا وبريا في الشهر إلى مائتين وخمسين خرقا». وأكد باسيل: «إن ما جرى هو اعتداء بواسطة الطائرات المسيرة في قلب الضاحية الجنوبية للعاصمة بيروت، وهو سابقة خطيرة جدا لا يمكن للبنان القبول بها، وهي نوع جديد من الخروقات الذي يهدد أرواح اللبنانيين وممتلكاتهم في كل لحظة، إذا تم التسليم بحصولها وعدم وقفها»، وأضاف: «لذلك فإن على إسرائيل أن تعود إلى معادلة الهدوء القائمة منذ العام 2006 تحت سقف قرار مجلس الأمن 1701، لأن لبنان لن يقبل ولن يسمح بالخروج عن هذه المعادلة».
Israel says Hezbollah plans advanced missile plant in Lebanon Ynetnews/Reuters/|September 03/2019
Israel Alleges Presence of Missile Factory near al-Nabi Sheet Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 03/2019
الجيش الإسرائيلي: مصنع صواريخ لحزب الله في النبي شيت المدن/الثلاثاء 03/09/2019
أعلن الناطق باسم الجيش الإسرائيلي أن حزب الله أقام موقعًا مخصّصًا لإنتاج وتحويل الصواريخ الدقيقة في البقاع قرب بلدة النبي شيت. وقال أن “المنشأة أقيمت في السنوات الأخيرة كموقع لإنتاج الوسائل القتالية بقيادة إيران وحزب الله. وقد تم أخيراً رصد عمليات إضافية تهدف لاستخدامها كموقع لإنتاج وتحويل الصواريخ إلى دقيقة. وفي إطار هذه الأعمال، يتم إنشاء خط إنتاج للأسلحة الدقيقة، ويتم نقل المعدّات الخاصة والحساسة إلى الموقع. كما أعلن أن “في الموقع الذي يقع شمال النبي شيت هناك عدة مجمعات، معدّة لإنتاج المحركات والرؤوس الحربية للصواريخ ذات القدرة على الاستهداف الدقيق لنحو عشرة أمتار. وتقوم إيران بتزويد المجمّع بالآلات الخاصة، والإرشادات للعاملين في الإنتاج، وهي ترافق العمليات في الموقع بشكل دائم.” وأوضح أن “لهذا الموقع أهميّة عليا لمشروع الصواريخ الدقيقة بالنسبة لحزب الله، ولذلك يقوم نشطاء من حزب الله في الأيام الأخيرة، بإخلاء معدات خاصّة وغالية الثمن منه، خوفًا من استهداف المكان، وقد قاموا بنقل المعدات إلى ممتلكات مدنية في لبنان، ومنها في العاصمة بيروت.”
Israel says Hezbollah plans advanced missile plant in Lebanon Ynetnews/Reuters/|September 03/2019
IDF claims the Iran-backed terror group had been bringing specialized equipment to a weapons factory in the Bekaa Valley in an effort to set up a production line for precision-guidance missiles, hinting at further Israeli attacks in the area
Israel accused Hezbollah on Tuesday of setting up a factory for precision-guided missiles in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, in a veiled warning of further possible Israeli counter-strikes after a drone attack near Beirut attributed to Israel set off brief cross-border fighting. Sunday’s shelling exchange was the fiercest between Israel and Hezbollah since the end of the 2006 Second Lebanon War. While neither side is keen to see an escalation, Israel has said it could act against any upgrades of Hezbollah’s missile arsenal, while Hezbollah has said it would retaliate for any attacks on Lebanese soil. In a statement to media accompanied by satellite images, the Israeli military said that Hezbollah, with Iranian assistance, had been bringing specialised equipment to a weapons factory near the Bekaa village of al-Nabi Sheet with a view to setting up a production line for precision-guidance missiles. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in response that Israel’s enemies will not possess precision-guided missiles on his watch. “These precision missiles are aimed directly at (the northern city of) Kiryat Ata,” said the prime minister. Hezbollah recently moved some of the equipment to “civilian locations” in Beirut as a precaution against strikes, the Israel Defense Forces l statement said, alluding to tensions that surged after the August 25 drone incident in a Hezbollah stronghold in a Beirut suburb. There was no immediate comment from Hezbollah, which has denied having precision-guided missile production sites in Lebanon. But it says it possess such weapons, which could be used to home in on and knock out key Israeli infrastructure. In an August 31 speech, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah accused Israel of using the movement’s capability with precision-guided missiles as a pretext for attacks. Israel has not formally claimed responsibility for the Beirut drone strike, which a regional security source said hit a component of the precision-guided missile project. Hoping to move Beirut to rein in Hezbollah, Israel has signalled that in any further flare-up it could carry out widespread attacks on Lebanon.
Israel Alleges Presence of Missile Factory near al-Nabi Sheet Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 03/2019
Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee on Tuesday claimed that Hizbullah has set up a factory for producing precision-guided missiles near the Bekaa town of al-Nabi Sheet, saying the purported plant is part of the party’s alleged precision missile program. “This site is of great importance to Hizbullah regarding the precision-guided missile program, that’s why Hizbullah operatives have been evacuating special and expensive equipment from it, fearing a strike on the location,” Adraee tweeted. “They have transferred the equipment to civilian properties in Lebanon, including in the capital Beirut,” he added. On Thursday, the Israeli army accused Iran of collaborating with Hizbullah to assemble precision-guided missiles that could cause “massive” human casualties in Israel. Tehran and Hizbullah plan to convert “stupid rockets into precision-guided missiles,” Israeli army spokesman Jonathan Conricus told journalists in a conference call. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah responded on Saturday, saying: “In Lebanon, we have what we need in terms of precision missiles for any confrontation great or small… we don’t have precision missile factories.” The statements came amid soaring tensions between the two sides over Israeli strikes in Syria and in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Hizbullah retaliated on Sunday by firing Kornet missiles at an Israeli military vehicle in northern Israel.
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حزب الله في واد والتيار والقوات في وادٍ آخر هيام القصيفي/الأخبار/04 أيلول/2019
في أسبوع واحد، شهدت الساحة السياسية فصلين متناقضين الى الحد الأقصى. واحد مثّله حزب الله، والآخر مثّله التيار الوطني الحر والقوات اللبنانية معاً.
من دون الدخول في العملية التي قام بها حزب الله ضد إسرائيل وهدفها وتبعاتها، وكيف انتهت مفاعيلها حتى الآن والتدخلات الروسية والغربية التي أعقبت أسبوعاً من التهديدات والتبليغات، بات بديهياً أن حزب الله أعاد إظهار نفسه في أيام قليلة لاعباً سياسياً وحيداً، بعدما كان متفرداً بالقوة العسكرية. فهو حصد تأييداً سياسياً، على المستويات الرسمية كافة، وشدّ العصب الداخلي وزخم حرارة علاقته بحركة أمل على خلفية الجاهزية ضد إسرائيل، وأثبت مجدداً أنه قادر على أن يملك مفتاح الحرب والسلم.
تخطى القرار الدولي 1701، ودفع رئيس الحكومة سعد الحريري الى السير وراءه في عملية تجميع الأوراق الدولية لمنع انزلاق لبنان نحو الحرب.
كل ذلك في وقت عرف فيه كيف يطوع كل الأدوات التي يمتلكها واستفاد من توقيت مناسب إقليمياً ودولياً من واشنطن الى طهران والعراق وسوريا ولبنان، كي يعيد التأكيد أنه لا يزال القوة الأبرز والأفعل لبنانياً من دون منازع.
خلال أيام قليلة، أطل الأمين العام للحزب السيد حسن نصر الله مرات عدة، ووجّه رسائل في الاتجاهات كافة، واستفاد من وقوف المجتمع الدولي وأوروبا تحديداً وراء الاتفاق النووي ومنع الانهيار اللبناني، ليطرح معادلة جديدة، تبنّتها الحكومة من دون أي التباس.
في هذا الوقت الذي كرس فيه مجدداً حزب الله دوره الأبعد من الحدود اللبنانية، وربط ساحات العراق وسوريا ولبنان في خط تنسيقي واحد، برز مشهد مناقض تماماً لدى القوتين الأبرز عند المسيحيين، وهما تتصارعان على المنابر وعلى كل وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي التي باتت في زمن السلم، بخلاف التسعينيات، سلاحهما في وجه بعضهما البعض.
منذ 7 آب الى الأول من أيلول والثاني منه، أظهرت هاتان القوتان المسيحيتان أنهما لا تزالان غارقتين في أحقاد الماضي، وفي نبش القبور، وفي تأكيد أن كل استراتيجيتهما تدور حول نقطة واحدة، تتعلق بالصراع الداخلي المسيحي كمشروع سياسي وحيد من دون التقدم خطوة واحدة الى الأمام.
ثمة وقائع سياسية في خطاب رئيس حزب القوات الدكتور سمير جعجع، صحيحة مئة في المئة، كما في خطاب رئيس حزب التيار الوطني الحر جبران باسيل.
لكن كليهما يتحدثان، وكأنهما لا يزالان في «المنطقة الشرقية» وحدها، بمعنى توجّههما الى جمهور مسيحي صرف وبناء على إحداثيات مسيحية ووقائع مسيحية لا غير، ولو أن خطابهما مغلّف بمفهوم الدولة والحقوق والشراكة في الحكومة وعناوين اقتصادية عامة.
خطابا جعجع وباسيل في هذه المرحلة، لا يمكن النظر إليهما، من زاوية من هو صاحب الحق بينهما، ولا من زاوية جوقة الزجالين، نواباً ووزراء ومناصرين ومنتفعين، التي ترد وراءهما وتنحدر باللغة والكلام الى أدنى مستوى بعدم احترام الأدبيات والأخلاقيات.
فالتيار هو حزب العهد، وبات يمتلك حضوراً أقوى من ذي قبل، بفعل وجوده في السلطة، وفي أداء رئيسه الجامع في يديه مناصب وسلطات وحركة داخلية وخارجية لا تهدأ.
والقوات تثبت كل يوم حضورها في القاعدة الشابة، وتفرض أداءها السياسي من الزاوية التي حددتها لنفسها، بصرف النظر عن أخطاء سياسية تقع فيها والتيار.
وهذا يعني أنهما لا يحتاجان الى كل هذا الوقود الكلامي من أجل حشد المناصرين وتثبيت قواعدهما وانتماءاتهما السياسية، الإقليمية والدولية.
وكلا رئيسي الحزبين مرشحان لرئاسة الجمهورية، وهذا يضعهما أمام تحدي الانتقال الى النقاش السياسي والحركة السياسية البحت من دون الاستمرار في النفخ بنار الخلافات الداخلية.
لأن ذلك له معنى وحيد أنهما غير قادرين على الدخول في مشروع حقيقي من دون عصبية حزبية مسيحية قائمة على تهشيم الآخر، فيما الطرفان يتغنّيان بثقافة الحوار وعدم تخوين الآخر واحترام الاختلاف في الرأي وما الى ذلك من مفردات حفلت بها ورقة التفاهم بينهما.
ويعني أيضاً أن أي خطاب من دون ذكر كلمة قوات أو تيار لن يكون له المردود نفسه.
توقيت السجال المفتوح منذ أشهر والمتصاعدة حدّته، يوماً بعد آخر، لا يمكن دائما تجاهله، ولا سيما حين يبرز في المقلب الآخر حدث في مثل التطور الأخير المتعلق بأداء حزب الله إقليمياً ودولياً.
وكذلك لأنه يأتي أيضاً بعد أيام قليلة على إعادة رئيس الحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي وليد جنبلاط فرض نفسه قوة سياسية يتعذّر المس بها بسهولة.
حتى الحريري حدد إطار عمله السياسي، وارتضى لنفسه دوراً – اقتصادياً بحت، ومن حين الى آخر يمارس دوره رئيساً للحكومة.
وحدهما القوات والتيار لا يزالان يبحثان عن هويتهما الحقيقية في تركيبة قائمة، فلا يجدان سوى ساحة مسيحية مهترئة يستخدمانها مجدداً، وكأنه لم تكفها حروب داخلية طويلة الأمد، ليبنيا عليها مشروعهما الخلافي، لا السياسي.
Your eye is the lamp of your body. If your eye is healthy, your whole body is full of light
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/33-36/:”‘No one after lighting a lamp puts it in a cellar, but on the lampstand so that those who enter may see the light. Your eye is the lamp of your body. If your eye is healthy, your whole body is full of light; but if it is not healthy, your body is full of darkness.Therefore consider whether the light in you is not darkness. If then your whole body is full of light, with no part of it in darkness, it will be as full of light as when a lamp gives you light with its rays.’”
صحيح بأن نظامي الأسد والملالي هما جماعات إجرام ولكن الاستعمار التركي العثماني كان أسوأ منهما بمليون مرة الياس بجاني/04 أيلول/2019
كم تمنينا ولو مرة واحدة كلبنانيين مسيحيين بأن يكون ولاء وانتماء وحب وفخر وأولوية كثر من أهلنا في لبنان من المذاهب الأخرى وخصوصاً في أزمنة الشدائد والصعاب هو للبنان الهوية والانتماء والوطنية والإنسان والمصير المشترك.
إلا أن تمنياتنا وللأسف كانت ولا تزال باستمرار تحبط وتصاب بالخيبة في كل مرة تتعارض المصلحة اللبنانية مع مصالح العرب أو الأتراك أو إيران تحديداً.
ونعم فإن النظامين الحاليين في كل من سوريا وإيران هما أدوات وماكينات حكم ابليسية ومذهبية وإجرامية وبراميلية وكيماوية وتهجيرية ولا تعرف لا الرحمة ولا أي شيء هو أخلاقي أو إنساني.
ولكن وهنا نشدد على كلمة ولكن.. فإن النظام التركي الحالي هو ليس أفضل بكثير من نظامي الأسد والملالي بعنصريته ومذهبيته وأحلامه العثمانية والاستعمارية التوسعية.
كما أن اضطهاده للمسيحيين في تركيا بكافة مذاهبهم كبير وعلني ويأخذ أشكالا وأنماطاً كثيرة ومتنوعة من الإذلال والحرمان من الحقوق والدونية والذمية والظلم والعنصرية والمذهبية.
وفي نفس الوقت هو في إعلان حرب إبادة مستمرة على الأكراد (وهم من المذهب السني) في تركيا وكل بلاد الجوار على خلفية عنصرية وتوسعية واستعمارية.
وهو في نفس الوقت نظام توسعي بفكره وممارساته ونهجه ومثله مثل نظام الملالي متورط حتى أذنيه في حروب ليبيا وسوريا والعراق وغزة وغيرها من البلدان العربية، وذلك على خلفية مذهبيته وعنصريته وأحلامه العثمانية والاستعمارية.
أما أجداد النظام التركي الحالي، العثمانيين، الذين حكموا بلادنا بالحديد والنار وأعواد المشانق والإبادة والظلم والتجويع والتهجير لحقبة ظالمة ومظلمة تتزيد عن 430 سنة فلم يكونوا أبداً مثالاً مشرفاً يحتذى به في أي حقل أو مجال.
العثمانيون ابادوا الملايين من الأرمن والكلدان والأشوريين والسريان، وقضوا بالتجويع على ثلث سكان الجبل من أهلنا الموارنة، وأذلوا واحتقروا واستعبدوا كل الشعوب التي حكموها ومنها شعبنا اللبناني بكل شرائحه ومذاهبه.
من هنا معيب ومخجل فعلاً هذا الدفاع الأعمى والمذهبي البغيض عن العثمانيين وعن الحقبة العثمانية، ومهاجمة رئيس البلاد لمجرد أنه فتح صفحات التاريخ وقرأ فيها إجرامهم دون زيادة أو نقصان.
لأهلنا هؤلاء الذين يعادون لبنان ويقفون ضده أكان مع التركي أو مع أجداه العثمانيين، أو مع النظامين الإرهابيين الأسدي والملالوي، نقول خافوا الله ودافعوا عن لبنان وعن أهلكم من اللبنانيين، كل اللبنانيين وعن لبنان الدولة، لأن لا النظام التركي الحالي ولا أجداده العثمانيين، ولا نظامي الأسد والملالي هم أقرب إليكم من أهلكم من اللبنانيين، ولا مصيركم مرتبط بمصيرهم، بل هو مرتبط بمصير لبنان الدولة والكيان وباللبنانيين..كل اللبنانيين.
نذكر من يعنيهم الأمر بأن جمال باشا، المجرم العثماني لم يفرّق بإجرامه الموصوف بأعواد مشانقه بين لبناني وآخر ومذهب وآخر.
يبقى، بأن الولاء المطلق ودائماً ودون تردد لكل لبناني لأي مذهب انتمى يجب أن يكون للبنان وليس لأي دولة أو شعب أخر. ونعم وألف نعم لبنان أولاً اليوم وغداً وإلى أبد والآبدين.
*الصورة المرفقة مع المقال هي لعمليات شنق جمال باشا الأحرار والمثقفين من اللبنانيين والسوريين ومن كل المذاهب
*الكاتب ناشط لبناني اغترابي عنوان الكاتب الألكتروني Phoenicia@hotmail.com رابط موقع الكاتب الألكتروني http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com
Hezbollah facing growing criticism in Lebanon تقرير من صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت: حزب الله يواجه انتقادات متزايدة في لبنان Ynetnews/September 04/2019
Mainstream media, social media and politicians are becoming more vocal in their displeasure of the Iran-backed group’s decision to fire missiles at an IDF base on Sunday, which resulted in a massive Israeli bombardment of a southern Lebanon town
Criticism is growing in Lebanon over the actions of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed terror group that this week attacked an Israeli military base resulting in massive artillery fire in response.
While media outlets associated with Hezbollah were quick to report Sunday’s border incident – in which Hezbollah fired anti-tank missiles at troops over the border – as a victory for Lebanon, a different position began to appear both in the mainstream media and on social media.
Criticism of the group, its leader and its Iranian benefactors have appeared with increasing frequency.
A cartoon in the Lebanese media accusing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of benefitting from Sunday’s escalation.
Former prime minister Fouad Siniora, who led the country during the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, told Sky News Arabic that the Shi’ite group was entangling Lebanon in a mess and that his country needed a defense strategy.
“It is inconceivable that Hezbollah would launch such an operation,” he said.
Cartoon in the Lebanese media mocking Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who has been mainly in hiding since the 2006 war
Meanwhile, a member of parliament from Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s Future Movement party, said the Beirut government alone – and not Hezbollah – must make decisions on the country’s defense policies.
Another parliamentarian accused Iran of “pulling the strings” and deciding for Lebanon when and where such escalations would take place.
“The decision to go to war is unfortunately in the hands of Hezbollah,” he said.
Cartoon in the Lebanon media depicting Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his televised speeches as a lighter that will ignite the region
Hariri’s current coalition government includes Hezbollah, which made significant gains in last year’s parliamentary elections while Hariri’s bloc lost a third of its seats.
The group now holds two ministries and a ministry of state, including for the first time the Ministry of Health, which has one of the country’s largest budgets. The Finance Ministry remains in the hands of a Hezbollah ally, Ali Hassan Khalil.
Israeli army says it uncovers Lebanon’s Hezbollah missile site AFP, Jerusalem/Wednesday, 4 September 2019
Why was Nasrallah let off the hook? The IDF exposed – but did not bomb – the Iranian precise missile plant in Lebanon موقع دبيكا الإسرائيلي: لماذا سُمِح لنصر الله أن يتفلت من العقاب؟ اسرائل كشفت مكان مصنع تحديث صواريخ حزب الله لكنها لم تقصفه DEBKA File/September 04/2019
موقع دبيكا الإسرائيلي: ممارسات إسرائيل خلال الأيام الماضية أهدت حزب الله معلومات قيمة مفادها أن بأمكانه الإستمرار في تحديث مخزونه من الصواريخ. قصف إسرائيل يوم الأحد الماضي استهدف حقول فارغة وبعيدة عن قواعد حزب الله وأمكنه تواجد رجاله.
Who decided to let Hizballah get away with a rocket attack on the Israeli military on Sunday, Sept. 1?
IDF retaliation was impressive. But the heavy smoke blanketing wide fields of south Lebanon concealed the fact that the IDF had shelled empty fields, well away from Hizballah bases or manpower.
Similarly, when the military spokesman reported an Israeli air strike against the Hizballah rocket launch squad, no one was hurt.
The same policy appears to have been applied to the production in Lebanon of precision missiles, despite the dire threats of destruction coming from Israel’s leaders.
On Tuesday night, Sept. 3, the IDF made a big show of discovering a secret Iranian-Hizballah factory upgrading surface rockets to precise missiles at Nebi Shait in the Lebanese Beqaa valley.
While displaying a detailed diagram showing the inside workings of the factory, the IDF spokesman omitted to explain why it was still standing and not destroyed.
And although the military spokesman could tell reporters that the valuable production equipment was being dismantled and transported to hidden storage sites, he left unanswered the question of why the trucks carrying the equipment were not bombed in transit.
These unanswered questions lead to the conclusion that Israel has desisted from offensive operations against Hizballah in Lebanon ever since its drone attack of Aug. 24 on the Dahya suburb of Beirut.
Demonstrating the existence of a missile conversion factory in Lebanon to prove Hassan Nasrallah’s denials were false was no big deal. After all, he never took any prizes for telling the truth.
Could the IDF be pulling its punches to avoid an all-out war with casualties in the short time left before the Sept. 17 general election?
Or do Israel’s government and military leaders trust that the information they release will scare the Lebanese people into leaning hard on Hizballah to shut down its missile upgrade project?
That would be naïve; trusting ordinary people to rise up against brutal leaders has never worked in the Gaza Strip and is unlikely to work in Lebanon.
And, moreover, that policy has the dangerous side-effect of leaving the initiative for violence in the hands of the enemy.
Israel’s conduct this week has already given Hizballah valuable information: he understands that he can safely continue to upgrade his rocket arsenal.
Israeli army says it uncovers Lebanon’s Hezbollah missile site AFP, Jerusalem/Wednesday, 4 September 2019
The Israeli army said on Tuesday it had exposed a Hezbollah site dedicated to the manufacture of “precision-guided” missiles in Lebanon, just days after a cross-border flare-up between the arch-foes.
“The IDF is exposing a facility belonging to Hezbollah… designed to convert and manufacture precision-guided missiles,” the Israeli army said in a statement. It released what it said was an aerial photograph of the site in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, near the town of Nabi Chit.
The statement comes after the Iran-backed Shiite movement said Sunday its fighters had fired anti-tank missiles into Israel, destroying a military vehicle and killing or wounding those inside.
Israel’s army said it had responded with around 100 artillery shells after Hezbollah targeted a battalion headquarters and military ambulance, hitting both. Israeli officials refuted claims of casualties.
Israel’s army said last week that Iran was collaborating with Hezbollah to convert “stupid rockets into precision-guided missiles,” through a plan to smuggle the required components into Lebanon.
The facility near Nabi Chit was established a few years ago by the Lebanese Shiite movement and its ally Tehran, the Israeli army said on Tuesday. “Lately, various activities to facilitate the manufacture and conversion of precision-guided missiles at the facility have been identified,” it added. Such activities included “the establishment of a dedicated assembly line for precision weapons and the transfer of sensitive and dedicated equipment.”The facility hosted machines designed to manufacture the motors and warheads of missiles “with an accuracy of less than 10 meters,” with Iran supplying special machines and instruction for manufacturing crews, the Israeli army said. It further alleged that Hezbollah had “in fear of strikes, evacuated precious and unique equipment from the compound to civilian locations in Beirut.” Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Monday said his organization would respond to any further Israeli attacks with strikes “deep inside Israel” and not just along the border. For his part, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a cabinet meeting that he was determined to guarantee Israel’s security.
Israel must “prevent Iran from supplying our enemies and its proxies, such as Hezbollah and others, with precision weapons that endanger us,” he said.
أوجه الشبه بين حزب الله وجماعة الإخوان أحمد عدنان/عكاظ/05 أيلول/2019
كما قلت سابقا، هناك علاقة معقدة تجمع بين إيران وجماعة الإخوان المسلمين الإرهابية، رغم التباين الطائفي والمذهبي، إذ تعد أدبيات سيد قطب مرجعا رئيسا للثورة الإسلاموية الإيرانية وملحقاتها، وربما كانت فكرة «المرشد» الإخوانية ملهمة لإحياء نظرية ولاية الفقيه أو اختلاقها من جديد، وفي المقابل وجدت الجماعة نفسها منساقة إلى المرجعية الإيرانية الخمينية، إذ أصبحت إيران الإسلاموية موضوعيا مرجعا للحركات الإسلاموية الثورية أيا تكن طائفتها.
حين حكمت جماعة الإخوان مصر، التقت مع المشروع الإيراني التوسعي من الضفة الأخرى، فحيث إن إيران ترغب في الاستيلاء على الدول الخليجية والعربية من الخارج، سعت الجماعة إلى نفس الهدف من داخل هذه الدول، ومن دلائل ذلك الخلايا التي تم كشفها في السعودية وفي الإمارات، والمحاولات المشبوهة المرصودة في الكويت، وكأن الهلال الفارسي يتعانق مع الهلال الإخواني على نفس الغنيمة، وحين سقط حكم الرئيس محمد مرسي لم يكن بيان وزارة الخارجية الإيرانية الرافض للثورة اعتباطيا.
هذه المقدمة ضرورية للتأكيد على المقارنة المنطقية والمشروعة بين مليشيا حزب الله والجماعة البائدة، ولعل نقطة البداية أن الحزب الإلهي مثل الجماعة الإخوانية، لم يفوضهم الله أو رسوله لتمثيل الله أو الإسلام والمسلمين.
إن رؤية أحوال حزب الله في لبنان اليوم تذكرنا حتما بأحوال الجماعة في أوجها الشعبي ثم الرسمي، إذ تمتعت الجماعة بشعبية عابرة للشرائح في مصر، بفضل شعارها الجذاب «الإسلام هو الحل»، وشبكة الخدمات التي وفرتها مجانا أو بأسعار رمزية للمواطنين، وتزامن ذلك سند دولي ناعم ثم خشن وفرته تركيا وقطر، وفيما بعد انجذاب بعض الأوساط الغربية للتحالف مع الإسلام السياسي.
والحقيقة أن الجماعة، خصوصا في النصف الثاني من مرحلة الرئيس حسني مبارك، أصبحت شريكا في السلطة، سواء عبر كتلتها البرلمانية، أو عبر غض الطرف الرسمي عن نشاطاتها الاجتماعية، إذ اعتبرت السلطة المصرية حينها أن خدمات الإخوان لبعض المواطنين قد تحرر الدولة من بعض الواجبات والنفقات.
لا يختلف الحزب الإلهي اليوم عن حال الجماعة بالأمس إلا في التركيبة الطائفية اللبنانية التي تقدم غطاء داعما للحزب، ولنعط مثالا واضحا: لم تنكشف الجماعة تماما أمام الشعب المصري إلا بعد تولي الحكم – عقب ثورة ٢٥ يناير – ثم سقوطها، وتفاجأ بعض المتعاطفين مع الجماعة من وجهها الإرهابي الخفي الذي ظهر إلى العلن بفجاجة عبر الإرهاب التي تصارعه مصر منذ ثورة ٣٠ يونيو.
وفي المقابل فإن وجه حزب الله الإرهابي مكشوف تماما، من اغتيال الرئيس رفيق الحريري مرورا بأحداث ٧ آيار وليس انتهاء بجرائم القتل والتهجير في سورية، لكن ما يخفف من وطأة هذا الإرهاب في الداخل اللبناني، أولا أن الحزب أصبح مركزا لتوزيع السلطة في لبنان، وبالتالي هناك رغبة لدى أغلب زعماء الطوائف للتهدئة مع الحزب لتدارك ضعفها أو حذرا من انفجار لا يمكن احتمال تداعياته، وثانيا أن خنق ضبط حزب الله للطائفة الشيعية يشير إلى اقتتال أهلي محتمل في حال قامت مواجهة جدية، لأن الحزب يقدم نفسه كممثل لكل الشيعة وليس لبعضهم.
لفهم شعبية حزب الله داخل الطائفة الشيعية يمكن تقسيمها إلى ٣ دوائر، الأولى هي للشريحة العقائدية وهي الأقل، وتستمد قوتها من السلاح ومن المال (الغطاء الإيراني الكامل). والثانية هي الشريحة التي تؤيد الغالب أيا يكن. والثالثة هي الشريحة التي ربطتها المصالح المادية بالحزب الإلهي.
حال حزب الله في لبنان يتطابق إلى حد التماثل مع حال جماعة الإخوان في مصر قبل ثورة ٣٠ يونيو، في يد المليشيا الإيرانية مفاتيح السلطة تهب الملك للحلفاء وللأتباع وتنزعه من المعارضين، وتحظى المليشيا بشعبية واضحة داخل طائفتها، وتتغلل داخل الطوائف الأخرى عبر عملائها ومليشياتها، وأصبحت لها كلمة في بعض الخارج تماما مثل الجماعة.
لكن أوجه الشبه السلبية تتطابق هي الأخرى وهنا مكمن الضعف، لم يشبه الإخوان بعقائدهم ومشاريعهم مصر في شيء، تماما مثل حزب الله الذي لا يشبه اللبنانيين أبدا، ربما كان الحزب أقرب لحركة طالبان الأفغانية من حركة أمل الشيعية اللبنانية، انظر إلى حربهم على الفن والثقافة الشعبية، وتمييزهم ضد المرأة، ثم فلنتحدث عن الرابط بين الحزب ولبنان.
ومكمن الضعف الأخطر، أن صعود الحزب أصبح يعني سقوط لبنان وخطرا مباشرا على مصالح اللبنانيين كما أثبتت العقوبات الاقتصادية، وكما أثبتت ردود الفعل المحلية على تلويح الحزب بالتصادم مع إسرائيل، زعم الحزب يوما أنه يحمي لبنان، واليوم هو يستجدي حماية اللبنانيين.
كما شكل وصول الإخوان إلى الرئاسة في مصر نقطة التراجع ثم النهاية بالنسبة إلى الجماعة، يمكن القول إن وصول حليف الحزب إلى الرئاسة وفوز قوى الثامن من آذار في الانتخابات البرلمانية الأخيرة بأنه نقطة التراجع والنهاية بالنسبة إلى الحزب، والتاريخ اللبناني يعلمنا الكثير، لم يتصور أحد إمكانية خروج منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية ثم الوصاية السورية، ولم يتصور أحد أن حزب القوات اللبنانية يمكن أن يسلم سلاحه وينخرط بكل إخلاص داخل منطق الدولة وجسمها، لكن كل ذلك حصل، سواء بسبب العوامل الداخلية والخارجية أو بسبب العقيدة الوطنية المفقودة لدى الحزب الإلهي، الذي يتباهى علنا بأنه حزب إيران وولاية الفقيه.
إن تشابه حزب الله وجماعة الإخوان المسلمين ليس مستغربا، فالإسلام السياسي نوع واحد وإن اختلفت درجاته، والنهاية هي الإرهاب والهلاك حكما وحتما، تعد جماعة الإخوان أما للحركات الإرهابية، أما واجبات الأبوة فتقوم بها الجمهورية الإسلاموية الإيرانية، من اعترض على الجماعة بالأمس تم اتهامه بالكفر، ومن يهاجم الحزب اليوم يرمونه بالعمالة، ولو انتقل الحديث إلى الجرائم المباشرة أو المقنعة فحدث ولا حرج، أما المشهد الأطرف فهو حديث الإخواني عن القانون والديمقراطية وحقوق الإنسان تماما كحديث أمين عام حزب الله عن السلم الأهلي والعيش المشترك، وهذا المشهد يعكس باطنية وضلال الإسلام السياسي كله.
لقد وصلت جماعة الإخوان إلى أوج السلطة، واليوم توزعت عناصرها بين المنافي والسجون والمشانق، والتطورات التي تشهدها المنطقة هذه الأيام تشير إلى مصير مشابه لعناصر حزب الله، ويحسب للمصريين أنهم استطاعوا التحرر من سلطان الجماعة ثم القضاء عليها مع الحفاظ على وحدتهم ودولتهم، فهل يستطيع اللبنانيون السير على نفس الخطى؟ من المؤكد أنهم لن يقدروا على ذلك وحدهم، لكن المؤكد أيضا أنه من الواجب عليهم أن يتخذوا قرارهم، «من عمل صالحا فلنفسه، ومن أساء فعليها، وما ربك بظلام للعبيد».
* كاتب سعودي
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But the scripture has imprisoned all things under the power of sin, so that what was promised through faith in Jesus Christ might be given to those who believe.
Letter to the Galatians 03/15-22: “I give an example from daily life: once a person’s will has been ratified, no one adds to it or annuls it. Now the promises were made to Abraham and to his offspring; it does not say, ‘And to offsprings’, as of many; but it says, ‘And to your offspring’, that is, to one person, who is Christ. My point is this: the law, which came four hundred and thirty years later, does not annul a covenant previously ratified by God, so as to nullify the promise. For if the inheritance comes from the law, it no longer comes from the promise; but God granted it to Abraham through the promise. Why then the law? It was added because of transgressions, until the offspring would come to whom the promise had been made; and it was ordained through angels by a mediator. Now a mediator involves more than one party; but God is one. Is the law then opposed to the promises of God? Certainly not! For if a law had been given that could make alive, then righteousness would indeed come through the law. But the scripture has imprisoned all things under the power of sin, so that what was promised through faith in Jesus Christ might be given to those who believe.”
The Angel Gabriel Appears To Virgin Mary
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 01/26-38: “In the sixth month the angel Gabriel was sent by God to a town in Galilee called Nazareth, to a virgin engaged to a man whose name was Joseph, of the house of David. The virgin’s name was Mary. And he came to her and said, ‘Greetings, favoured one! The Lord is with you.’But she was much perplexed by his words and pondered what sort of greeting this might be. The angel said to her, ‘Do not be afraid, Mary, for you have found favour with God. And now, you will conceive in your womb and bear a son, and you will name him Jesus. He will be great, and will be called the Son of the Most High, and the Lord God will give to him the throne of his ancestor David. He will reign over the house of Jacob for ever, and of his kingdom there will be no end.’Mary said to the angel, ‘How can this be, since I am a virgin?’ The angel said to her, ‘The Holy Spirit will come upon you, and the power of the Most High will overshadow you; therefore the child to be born will be holy; he will be called Son of God. And now, your relative Elizabeth in her old age has also conceived a son; and this is the sixth month for her who was said to be barren. For nothing will be impossible with God.’Then Mary said, ‘Here am I, the servant of the Lord; let it be with me according to your word.’ Then the angel departed from her.”
Lebanon Is Bigger Than Hassan Nasrallah Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/September 05/2019
لبنان أكبر من حسن نصرالله سلمان الدوسري/الشرق الأوسط/05 أيلول/2019
لعقود طويلة ظل حسن نصر الله الحاكم بأمره في لبنان. يأمر فيطاع. يقرر الحرب كما السلم. لا نظام يردعه، ولا دولة تمنعه. إن أراد أن يورط بلاده فعلها، فلا يتجرأ أحد على معارضته، وإن حرَّكته إيران نفّذ تكتيكاتها، لم يراعِ إن كان ذلك لصالح لبنان أو لضرره. يشارك إيران إرهابها فيعاقب اللبنانيين اقتصادياً وسياسياً واجتماعياً. يضع نفسه طرفاً في الأزمة السورية فتعاني الدولة بأكملها.
وعلى ذلك استمر نصر الله الآمر الناهي، ليس فقط باعتماده على سلاح أقوى من سلاح الدولة، وإنما بإرهاب كل مناوئيه فلا يستطيع أحد أن يرفع صوته، أو يسجل معارضته، أليس الخصوم الذين عاقبهم الحزب بالاغتيالات حاضرين في ذاكرة الجميع؟! فيتصرف الحزب بمعزل عن الدولة كعادته في قضايا سيادية، ثم يكون الرد صاعقاً وفوق طاقة لبنان، وبالطبع لا يهم «حزب الله» وأعوانه أي نتائج كارثية، المهم أنه حقق مراده بهذا التصعيد حتى ولو تحول لحرب شاملة.
هذه المرة، إثر مناوشات إسرائيل و«حزب الله»، فوجئ «حزب الله»، وعلى رأسه نصر الله، بأن المعادلة تغيرت للمرة الأولى، و«إرهاب الخصوم» انتهى مفعوله شيئاً فشيئاً، والوعي اللبناني، كما العربي قبله، من كذبة «المقاومة الإسلامية»، اختلف كثيراً عمَّا كان عليه بعد مغامرة الحزب في 2006، فبدأت الأصوات اللبنانية تخرج في وجه من اختطف بلادهم ويريد تغييبها، ها هو سمير جعجع يدعو من اللحظة الأولى إلى عدم «تضييع البوصلة»، من خلال دعوة الحكومة إلى «مناقشة موضوع وجود القرار الاستراتيجي العسكري والأمني خارج الدولة».
أما فؤاد السنيورة فقال إنه عندما يتحدث «حزب الله» بأنه يمتلك زمام الأمور بالرد العسكري على أي انتهاك إسرائيلي لسيادة لبنان، «فإنه يبدو كأنه مسؤول عن لبنان في ظل تغييب كامل لدور الدولة اللبنانية»، فيما حذَّر سامي الجميل من مغبة أن الحزب «أصبح هو الدولة وجمهوريتنا هي الدويلة وليس العكس»، معتبراً أن «ما نشهده اليوم مهين ومعيب بحق الشعب اللبناني».
صحيح أن هذه الأصوات ظهرت بينما غيرها آثَرَ الصمت والخفوت، لكن لنتذكر أن مثل هذا الطرح كان حتى وقت قريب يوصَم بالخيانة، والشعبوية كانت هي السائدة أما العقلانية فغائبة، فمسألة أن يأتي من يرفع صوته في وجه «سلاح حزب الله»، فمعناه أن أفعال الحزب أصبحت تحت المجهر، ومرفوضة من مكونات لبنانية ولم تعد شيكاً على بياض، فحتى مع التسليم بأن الجميع ضد الضربات الإسرائيلية، على أي جزء من لبنان، وليس مناطق نفوذ «حزب الله» فقط، فإن المصلحة تثبت كل مرة أنه لا يجوز أبداً أن يتصرف أي مكون بالنيابة عن الدولة اللبنانية، بما يمكن أن يورطها مجدّداً في «مغامرات غير محسوبة» لا أحد يعلم كيف يمكن أن تنتهي كما حصل في 2006.
لم يعد ممكناً أن يبقى قرار الحرب والسلم في يد «حزب الله» يناور به، ويستخدمه حسبما تمليه استراتيجية طهران بالمنطقة، فيما الحكومة اللبنانية تبقى كل مرة في موقع المتلقي من دون تحملها كل المسؤوليات التي أولها وأبرزها، هل من صالح الشعب اللبناني مثل هذه المناوشات والمعارك العبثية أم أنها تصبُّ في صالح الحزب وحده؟! فالصوت اللبناني الجهور وإن كان غائباً بفعل «إرهاب الخصوم» الذي يجيده الحزب، فإن دائرة الرفض ماضية في الاتساع بأن لبنان لم يعد أصغر من «حزب الله». لبنان يستحق أن يعود دولة لها سيادتها، دولة صاحبة الصلاحية الوحيدة في حماية مواطنيها ومصالحهم كافة، وليس ثورة تركب على ظهر الدولة حيث لم يجنِ منها اللبنانيون سوى الخراب والدمار.
Lebanon Is Bigger Than Hassan Nasrallah Salman Al-dossary/Asharq Al Awsat/September 05/2019
For decades, Nasrallah has been the ruler in Lebanon. He orders and he is obeyed. He decides war and peace. No regime deters him. No state stops him. If he wants to implicate his country, no one dares to oppose him. If Iran pushes him, he carries out its tactics. He did not take into account whether this would serve Lebanon or harm it. He adopts Iran’s terrorism and punishes the Lebanese economically, politically, and socially. He engages as a party in the Syrian crisis and the whole country suffers.
Thus, Nasrallah, the supreme leader, continued not only by relying on a more powerful weapon than that of the State, but by terrorizing all his opponents. No one could raise his voice, or declare his opposition. Aren’t his opponents, who were punished by assassinations committed by his party, present in everyone’s memory?
With regards to sovereign issues, the party behaves in isolation from the State as usual, and then the response is staggering and beyond Lebanon’s capacity. Of course, Hezbollah and its agents do not care about any disastrous consequences. What is important for them is to achieve their goal even if it turns into an all-out war.
This time, following the skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah, the party, and mainly Nasrallah, were surprised that the equation had changed for the first time, and that “terrorizing the adversaries” was slowly waning. The Lebanese awareness – as that of the Arabs – on the lie of the “Islamic Resistance”, differed significantly from what it was after the party’s adventure in 2006.
Lebanese voices were raised in the face of those who abducted their country. Here is Samir Geagea, calling from the first moment not to “lose the compass”, and asking the government to “discuss the issue of the presence of a strategic military and security decision outside the State.”
Fouad Siniora, for his part, noted that when Hezbollah says that it is up to the party to respond to any Israeli violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty, “it looks as if it was responsible for Lebanon in the complete absence of the Lebanese State.”
Sami Gemayel warned that the party would become the State, “and our country, a state within the State, and not vice-versa.”
“What we are witnessing today is an insult to the Lebanese people,” he said.
It is true that these voices emerged while others preferred to remain silent, but remember that such comments were, until recently, described as treason. Populism prevailed, while rationality was absent. Raising the voice in the face of “Hezbollah’s weapons” means that the actions of the party are now being scrutinized and rejected by Lebanese components.
Even while recognizing that everyone is against Israeli strikes on any part of Lebanon, not just on Hezbollah’s areas of influence, the country’s interest has always proven that no component should ever act on behalf of the Lebanese State, or drag it into uncalculated “adventures”, as that in 2006.
It is no longer possible for the decision of war and peace to remain in the hands of Hezbollah, which exploits it as dictated by Tehran’s regional strategy, while the Lebanese government remains in the recipient position without assuming any of its responsibilities.
Do these skirmishes and absurd battles serve the interests of the Lebanese people or those of the party alone?
Lebanon’s public voice, which has been silent due to the party’s terrorizing strategy, is now resounding. Lebanon is no longer smaller than Hezbollah. Lebanon deserves to become again a sovereign state. A State that has the sole authority to protect its citizens and all their interests.
Lebanon does not deserve to be burdened by a revolution, from which the Lebanese have reaped nothing but destruction and devastation.
Analysis/Lebanon Pays the Price for a Burden Called Hezbollah زفي برئيل/هآرتس: لبنان يدفع ثمن مرتفع جداً بسبب عبء ّوثقل حِّمل اسمه حزب الله Zvi Bar’el/Haaretz/September 05, 2019
As international sanctions weaken Lebanon’s economy, Hezbollah may reap the profits
Shortly before the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it was levying economic sanctions against Lebanon’s Jammal Trust Bank.
In this case, the term “sanctions” does not elucidate the extent of absolute damage this will cause the bank. The American administration demanded of Lebanon that it close the bank, freeze its deposits and prevent it from paying any debts. The governor of Lebanon’s central bank, Riad Salameh, quickly moved to carry out the order. He announced a freeze on the bank’s operations and handed over accounts management to the central bank until a solution could be found.
Salameh made an assurance that “all legitimate deposits compliant with Lebanese laws and the Central Bank’s circulars are insured upon maturity.” In other words, his representatives would have to confirm with the U.S. Treasury Department which account owners are legitimate and which aren’t, thus allowing the American administration unprecedented access to the Lebanese financial institution.
Besides a general statement that Jammal supports Hezbollah’s “illicit financial and banking activities,” the United States did not detail the suspicions, listed no amounts or dates or who was behind such “illicit” activities.
Anwar al-Jammal, owner of the bank that employs 400 people in over two dozen branches across Lebanon and dozens of other representatives worldwide, apparently didn’t understand why exactly the American administration decided to target his bank.
Jammal drew praise last year for close cooperation between the bank and USAID and for its “Save and Win” campaign to encourage Lebanese citizens to increase savings. Lebanese economists say that Jammal is not a political man and not the type to conduct relations with Hezbollah.
They say it was probably the bank officers who helped Hezbollah without knowledge of senior management, and that there was no justification for punishing all employees and certainly not the deposit owners who are now unsure of the fate of their money because they can’t verify whether they are on a blacklist.
Jammal Bank Trust isn’t Lebanon’s biggest bank, and the immediate repercussions of it closing won’t influence the extent of the current economic crisis. Lebanon’s national debt is around 150 percent of its gross national product and its foreign currency reserves are $31 billion, but designated to serve as a guarantee for repaying debts.
Lebanon has a window of opportunity is gas drilling in the Mediterranean, but before it can do that, it needs an agreement to mark its economic borders with Israel.
However, the bank’s closure – despite promise by U.S. Treasury Department last year that it did not intend to hurt banks in Lebanon – makes clear the economic burden Hezbollah is placing on the Lebanese government.
The Lebanese government has waited over a year to implement the decisions of the Cedar conference for international donors, which pledged to provide it with loans and grants worth $11 billion. The problem is that donor nations are withholding the funds as long as Hezbollah members serve in government ministries.
It is an enormous sum designated to support development projects and to create additional revenue for the government. Lebanese President Michel Aoun has twice convened cabinet members and economic experts to try and build an economic plan that could convince donors that there is a way out of this crisis, but no practical decisions have been made.
Meanwhile, the banks are working together with the central bank to calm the local market and to create a sense of safety among account holders. For example, banks are offering 15 percent interest on deposits in Lebanese pounds.
The banks then deposit the funds with the central bank, which pays them 21 percent. Small-account owners, who are pleased with this arrangement, are not aware that the central bank’s ability to pay the banks the high interest rate is liable to dissipate in the not-too-distant future. There is concern that the bank will be forced at a certain point to end this policy, to declare a cut in payments to banks, to place limits on foreign currency purchases and thereby to cause a massive flow of currency out of the country or the bankruptcy of hundreds of thousands of account holders.
Hezbollah is not part of this game because its funds are not managed by Lebanese banks. A widespread banking crisis may lead to a situation in which the group targeted by the international sanctions will actually be the one to emerge with the greatest economic means, allowing it to acquire additional assets at basement prices on top of the billions of dollars in assets it already holds.
Hezbollah may support the idea of the Lebanese government receiving international aid, part of which would end up in the ministries it controls, but it doesn’t need these funds for its operations. As long as it doesn’t rely on supervises banking pipelines, Hezbollah is inure to an economic crisis in Lebanon.
Pompeo to Lebanon: Get rid of 2nd Iranian missile factory or face US-backed Israeli attack موقع دبيكا: بومبيو يحذر الحكم في لبنان من ضربة إسرائيلية مدعومة من أميركا ما لم تتخلص من معمل الصواريخ الإيراني الثاني DEBKAfile/September 05/2019
في رسالة من وزير خارجية أميركا بومبيو إلى قرينه اللبناني جبران باسيل حذر من أن إسرائيل تعرف أن هناك معمل صواريخ إيراني ثاني في لبنان وهي تتحضرللقيام بتدميره
DEBKAfile Exclusive: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Lebanon on Wednesday, Sept. 4, that Israel knows about a second, larger Iranian-Hizballah missile factory and is preparing to bomb it.
Pompeo addressed this urgent message directly to Lebanese Foreign Minister Jubran Basil, who is close to Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah, instead of through the usual embassy channels. He sent it on the day after the IDF showed reporters detailed evidence of the existence of a factory at Nebi Shait for arming Hizballah’s surface missiles with precision kits.
The Secretary wrote that Israel intelligence is fully apprised that Iran and Hizballah were building another, more substantial factory in Lebanon, to accommodate their main missile upgrade project. They had hoped to use the Nebi Shait plant as window dressing to throw Israel off the scent.
Pompeo directed Lebanon to dismantle this second factory without delay since Israel was in advanced preparations for its destruction. He stressed that Israel would be acting with full American support, whatever the consequences of the operation. Our sources note that the American message did not specify the location of Missile Factory No. 2.
In support of the US ultimatum to Beirut, Israel on Wednesday night boosted its air defense array on the Lebanese and Syria borders with extra Patriot missiles. They were deployed in case Hizballah retaliated for the potential destruction of its main missile project by launching explosive drones into Israel.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s surprise trip to London – this time in his additional capacity as defense minister – fits in with these preparations. In addition to meeting UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Netanyahu will meet separately with the US Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper. With him are the Israeli Air Force commander Maj. Gen. Amikam Nurkin and head of the IDF Operations Directorate Maj. Gen. Aharon Havilah. They will present Israel’s plans of action in Lebanon in the days ahead.
انذار مباشر من بومبيو الى باسيل: فككوا مصنع الصواريخ والّا..! 05 أيلول/2019
ذكر موقع “ديبكا” الإسرائيلي، أنّ وزير الخارجية الأميركي مايك بومبيو أرسل رسالة إلى رئيس الجمهورية العماد ميشال عون، حذّره فيها من أنّ لبنان عليه أن يفكك مصنع الصواريخ الدقيقة رقم 2 فوراً أو ستقوم إسرائيل بالهجوم عليه، وستدعم الولايات المتحدة هذا الهجوم. وقال الموقع، أنّ “الرسالة سلمت إلى وزير الخارجية جبران باسيل، ولم يتم نقلها بالوسائل الدبلوماسية العادية للسفارة الأميركية في بيروت، بل أرسلت مباشرة إلى باسيل، وطلب منه إيصال محتواها إلى امين عام حزب الله السيد حسن نصر الله”. وأورد، أنّ “إعلان جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي في 3 ايلول الماضي بشأن مصنع الصواريخ الدقيقة لإيران وحزب الله في بلدة النبي شيت في البقاع، كان مجرد مثال واحد فقط على حجم المعلومات التي لدى المخابرات الإسرائيلية حول إنتاج صواريخ إيرانية دقيقة في لبنان”. وحول محتوى رسالة بومبيو، قال الموقع، إنّ “الوزير الأميركي أوضح أن لدى إسرائيل معلومات استخباراتية مؤكدة عن المصنع الثاني لإنتاج الصواريخ الدقيقة الذي أنشأته إيران وحزب الله في لبنان، وأن معظم الجهود لتصنيع مثل هذه الصواريخ تتم به، بينما يهدف المصنع الموجود في بني شيت إلى تضليل إسرائيل”.
Hezbollah Readies for Next War Against Israel سولومي اندرسن/فورن بولسي: حزب الله يتحضر للحرب الثانية ضد إسرائيل Sulome Anderson/Foreign Policy site/September 05/2019
Despite a pause in hostilities, militia fighters and experts believe the two sides could stumble into their first all-out conflict since 2006.
BEKAA VALLEY, Lebanon—Hilal stretched his legs in a plastic chair on the veranda outside his house, close to a Hezbollah military base in Hermel, Lebanon. Even in late summer, the night air here has a crisp edge to it, and stars dot the sky above the rust-red hills that separate the country from neighboring Syria.
But despite his posture, Hilal, who like other Hezbollah fighters interviewed by Foreign Policy asked that his name be changed, was anything but relaxed. An ivory-handled revolver shimmered on his hip. He pointed to where the hills crest into the horizon not far from his home.
“Can you see all those mountains?” he asked. “All of this area is full of missiles. They are all under preparation. Every day, we bring in and deploy them. We have received instructions not to wait for orders [to fire]. At any minute, or any bullet, the guys will not wait.”
Hilal, a missile operator, is one of several Hezbollah fighters in eastern Bekaa Valley who told Foreign Policy during a recent reporting trip that they are preparing for the possibility of the first major outbreak of war with Israel in 13 years. This follows the recent decision by a newly aggressive Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to breach an unspoken agreement not to hit Hezbollah in its home country. On Aug. 25, the day after Israel killed two Hezbollah members in a strike against targets in Syria alleged by the Israeli government to be sites where Iran-linked forces were preparing a so-called killer drone attack against the Jewish state, that red line was crossed when an Israeli drone exploded near the Hezbollah media office in Dahieh, a sprawling neighborhood in the southern suburbs of Beirut largely controlled by the group.
And on Tuesday, in a statement to media accompanied by satellite images, Israel accused Hezbollah of setting up precision missile factories in a village not far from Hilal’s house.
Just after the explosion in Lebanon, Israel also reportedly killed a commander of an Iran-backed militia in Iraq. The following day, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported an Israeli drone had struck a base used by a Hezbollah-allied Palestinian militia in the eastern Bekaa Valley, the second drone strike inside Lebanon in two days. These quadruple provocations seemed to signal a new calculus in Israel’s long shadow war against Iran and the military forces it supports across the Middle East.
“This represents part of an escalating pattern of strikes by the Israelis against [Iranian] targets and activities both in Syria, Iraq, and obviously in Lebanon,” said Seth Jones, the director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.
On Sunday, Hezbollah struck back, firing several antitank missiles at an Israeli military base and vehicles in northern Israel. The group claimed that several Israeli soldiers had been killed or wounded in the attack, but Israel vehemently denied any casualties and responded by shelling the area in southern Lebanon where the attack originated. Subsequent footage released by a Hezbollah-affiliated television station showed that if there had been no Israeli casualties from the strike, it was likely not due to any military prowess by Israel but “a lot of luck,” as IDF officers put it in statements to Israeli media.
Despite what seems a momentary pause in the tit-for-tat attacks, the vicissitudes of fortune could also determine whether tensions escalate further. Heiko Wimmen, the project director for Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, a nongovernmental organization that works to prevent global conflicts, said that while one possible outcome will be a return to the status quo, any miscalculation could spark a war.
“It’s this game of chicken, so if you blink you lose face,” Wimmen said. “If you lose face, maybe it can be repaired, but if you blink too often, then maybe you actually do lose something. If you don’t blink until the very last moment, then you are not able to avoid conflict. You don’t want it, perhaps, but then at some point things can’t be controlled.”
This is precisely the scenario Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, is concerned will lead to another full-on conflict. “The next war will be devastating for both sides and that’s why both sides want to avoid it,” Yadlin said. “[However], even without planning for a full-scale war, we can find ourselves there.”
Until now, much of Hezbollah’s strength has been focused on fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another Iran ally, in the Syrian civil war. But with that conflict winding down, Hezbollah fighters suggest they’re more than ready to renew their old hostilities with the hated Israelis—even if it happens by accident.
“We are constantly in a state of war,” said Hilal, putting out his cigarette. “We’ve been in a state of war since 2006. In that time, we have been preparing, and they are preparing as well.”
In this part of Bekaa, where Hezbollah has a large presence, the distinctive yellow flags of the Iran-backed militant group and political party, known as the Party of God, line most streets, along with smiling posters of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s much-revered leader. This region is where Hezbollah keeps much of its most sophisticated weaponry, a staggering arsenal of missiles the group has carefully and meticulously amassed in anticipation of another conflict with Israel, which borders Lebanon to the south.
Estimated to number anywhere between 40,000 to 150,000, Hezbollah’s rockets and missiles are said to outmatch the weapons capabilities of most sovereign countries. They are part of the reason the group has successfully evolved from a loosely organized collective of Shiite Muslim militias that coalesced in Lebanon during the 1980s with Iran’s help following one of several Israeli invasions to the single most powerful and well-armed nonstate military actor in the world. Through a combination of military might and political savvy, Hezbollah has also managed to secure a majority in Lebanon’s government, where it influences much of the country’s domestic policy.
But now, politics may be taking a back seat to a renewed militancy that carries worrying echoes of July 2006—the last time hostilities between the group and its enemy country flared into open conflict, which killed approximately 1,300 Lebanese and caused just under 150 Israeli deaths.
The 2006 Lebanon war is not widely viewed as having been a victory for Israel, which was essentially forced to withdraw from the south of the country in response to the success of Hezbollah’s guerrilla tactics as well as thousands of missiles fired across the border by the Shiite group. Hezbollah has ceaselessly touted its victory in the years since while continuing to build up its stockpile of missiles. After the Syrian civil war began eight years ago, much of this arsenal was transported to Lebanon across Syria.
Israel, in an attempt to interfere with this buildup, has struck Hezbollah weapons convoys and military positions in Syria dozens of times in recent years, but now Netanyahu appears to be willing to escalate to neighboring Lebanon. Nasrallah vowed to retaliate against Israel for these provocations in a dramatic speech following the Dahieh strike, and he made good on that promise on Sunday, touching off the most serious exchange of fire since January 2015, when Hezbollah killed two Israeli soldiers with an antitank missile following the deaths of several of the group’s leaders in an Israeli strike on Syria.
In the aftermath of Hezbollah’s Sunday retaliation, Netanyahu, who also serves as Israel’s defense minister, said the country will wait for Hezbollah’s next move before taking further action. “We will decide on the next steps pending developments,” he said in a statement.
Nasrallah responded with a speech on Monday stating that the flare-up was over, but announced a “new phase” of the conflict had begun, in which Hezbollah would allow fighters in the field to target Israeli drones flying over Lebanon. Tensions seemed to momentarily calm—until Tuesday’s announcement regarding Hezbollah’s alleged precision missile factories in the Bekaa signaled that more confrontations may be in store.
Netanyahu’s apparent restraint following Hezbollah’s rocket attack is a striking departure from Israel’s series of actions over the previous week. News coverage of the drone strike in Dahieh, sourced from intelligence officials, reported that Israel was targeting a precision-guided missile manufacturing operation there, but according to six sources in Hezbollah who spoke to Foreign Policy, the Israeli drone attack was a failed assassination attempt against one or more high-level Hezbollah leaders.
In Dahieh, Ali, the leader of a Hezbollah special forces unit active in Syria, described what he knew about the strike, ignoring the hastily prepared plate of food in front of him.
“There were two purposes [with the drone attack],” Ali said. “The first was to test the waters, but [the Israelis] were trying to get someone very important in Hezbollah, I know that for a fact.” He scoffed at reports that Israel’s purpose with the strike had been to target a precision missile manufacturing site. “Well, we could watch Tom and Jerry and say it is a true story,” he said. “We are under fire; the Israelis hit us in our home, in Dahieh. Now, we will retaliate.
“We would love to be martyrs and find God,” he added with a tight, grim smile. “When we die, we believe we will be assessed by our actions, and if we were good, we will live forever. There is a difference between the Israelis waiting and fearing death, and us, who run toward it.”
Several other Hezbollah sources also described the Israeli attack as a failed assassination attempt. “Why are the Israelis lying now, saying they were hitting a high-precision missile factory?” asked a local Hezbollah official at his home in a town near the Israeli border. “They tried to target a high-level meeting, and if [their target] was killed, the war would have started immediately.
But Hanin Ghaddar, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, another Washington-based think tank, said Israel has become increasingly worried about Hezbollah’s development of precision missiles over the past few years, and that concern fits with the claim of targeting such a facility in Dahieh.
“[Hezbollah] has been moving a lot of the precision missile factories to Lebanon,” Ghaddar said. “Israel doesn’t want to start a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. It’s something that they’re also are trying to avoid … but Hezbollah keeps moving GPS kits to Lebanon and working on these facilities, so [the Israelis] have expanded their Syria strategy to Iraq. … In Lebanon, they only did this one attack, and it was against a truck carrying a lot of these kits and material.”
According to Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, regardless of Israel’s purpose in striking Dahieh, for Hezbollah the drone attack represented a serious breach of the rules of engagement.
“As far as Hezbollah is concerned, Israel has been getting away with too much for too long,” Slim said. “At some point, they had to make a decision to respond. … I think they feel that if they don’t raise the costs for Israel for these actions, that Israel will not stop and will feel undeterred to expand even more and cause more harm to their interests.” Slim added: “Until now, [Hezbollah] has been thinking always about the benefit of retaliation versus the cost of retaliation. And previously, the benefits were much lower than the cost, given all that they were engaged in, especially in Syria. But with the war in Syria winding down, I think that calculus has shifted.”
U.S. policy regarding Hezbollah—which the government deems a terrorist group—might also be playing a role in this shifting calculus. Harsh sanctions against the Lebanese banking system imposed by the Trump administration have reportedly been hurting the group’s finances, possibly backing it into a corner from which it is more likely to escalate the conflict. According to Hilal, the missile operator in the Bekaa Valley, a line of thinking among Hezbollah rank-and-file is that if a war breaks out, its patron Iran—despite also facing extreme sanctions—will dig a little deeper into its pockets for the group.
“When the war flares up, the situation changes for our benefit,” Hilal said. “Money will come from everywhere, from all our allies.”
But other Hezbollah fighters reject the idea that U.S. sanctions are affecting the group’s military decisions. “The Americans think that Hezbollah is not doing so well financially, but Hezbollah is doing fine,” said Hisham, the leader of a Hezbollah tank battalion, who shared combat footage from Syria with Foreign Policy before scrolling to photos of a garden at his house in the mountains, proudly showing off his hand-carved outdoor table and the fresh fruit and vegetables he grows.
“Iran will always tend to us, the same way I tend to my garden,” he said, chuckling.
Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies believes that while U.S. sanctions have taken their toll on Hezbollah, the likelihood that they have severely limited the group’s capabilities is slim. “In the short run, I don’t think the sanctions have had a notable impact on [Hezbollah’s] ability to operate,” he said. “I think a war actually would almost certainly lead to an increase of sanctions and could hurt their position rather than anything else.”
In fact, other than continuing to sanction the group, it is not quite clear where the United States would stand in the event of outright war between Israel and Hezbollah. It’s certain that the United States would be concerned with the prospect of open conflict between Israel, a close ally, and Iran, which has been at the center of increasingly hostile rhetoric by the Trump administration in recent months as tensions periodically flare in the Persian Gulf.
“There is a relationship between the U.S. and Israeli military and intelligence services, so the U.S. will almost certainly provide some assistance to the Israelis, including on target sets,” Jones said. But he added that both the administration and Capitol Hill will push hard to resolve any conflict. “I suspect that there’s going to be growing pressure from the U.S. both on Capitol Hill and some in the White House, possibly including the president, who thus far has shown that he’s not really interested in war, particularly with Iran.”
U.S. President Donald Trump’s aversion to a wider conflict has not gone unnoticed by Hezbollah members. At another house near the group’s base in Hermel, a group of Hezbollah infantry fighters on a break sipped tea and smoked nargileh, their faces covered by masks, machine guns at their sides. One bearded fighter with intricate tattoos winding up his arm spoke very good English and did most of the talking.
“The Americans will play their role under the table,” the fighter said. “Trump is an idiot. Nobody knows what he will do. America will stand behind Israel, but I don’t think he will interfere in Lebanon, because Iran would intervene, and he doesn’t want war with Iran.”
And following Hezbollah’s missile attack against the Israeli military site on Sunday and Israel’s relatively subdued response to it, there is a chance this round of hostilities has now ceased, although Tuesday’s announcement by Israel regarding precision-missile manufacturing operations in the Bekaa is a sign that the conflict is far from resolved. According to the local Hezbollah official in south Lebanon, he anticipates the situation settling down for the moment.
“The Hezbollah attack will be equivalent to the Israeli attack,” said the official, speaking with his 5-year-old daughter perched on his lap. “Hezbollah will do a calculated strike. … It is not to our benefit to go to war with the Israelis now, but we are preparing for the worst. There is no single soldier in Hezbollah who is not in his military position at the moment.”
If there is a war, analysts say it is highly unlikely the conflict would be contained to Lebanon—given the presence of Iranian proxy groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen—raising the stakes even higher for everybody involved.
“If you compare this to the last conflict, this one is almost certainly likely to be more destructive and broader in scope,” Jones said. “I find it hard to believe that this would be limited to Israel and Lebanon. … This is a much more dangerous situation than I think we’ve ever seen along the Israeli-Lebanese border.”
On their tea break in Hermel, the group of Hezbollah fighters agreed with this assessment.
“This war won’t just be between Israel and Hezbollah,” said the English-speaking fighter. “Lebanon and Syria will be the red zone, but there are the Houthi in Yemen, the Hashd al-Shaabi [Popular Mobilization Forces] in Iraq. This war will definitely spread, but [the Israelis] wouldn’t be doing what they are doing if they didn’t want a reaction. They wouldn’t be droning Dahieh if they didn’t want a war. They want one, and we are ready for it. … We are used to suffering here, but we will make them suffer now.”
One boyish fighter with light brown curls peeking out from under his face mask chimed in.
“[The Israelis] haven’t fought a real war since 2006,” he said. “We fight in Syria every day. We have training, experience. The Israelis have trained, but they have no heart for war.”
